11-02-2016, 05:41 PM
Quote:There is nothing wrong with the polls. They are being performed the same as they always have been.
Never use a single poll since it nothing more than a single data point.
The turnout model in 2012 was based on 08.there was a thought that Obama might not get the same turnout for his re-election. That thesis was wrong.
Obama was still obama, an eloquent transcendent politician. The country literally became emotionally high whenever he spoke (they documented it.)
Hillary, however, is none of those things. Obama created high levels of enthusiasm, Clinton doesn't. Obama won the question "cares about people like me" 82 10. Right now Clinton and trump are tied on that question. Romney won independents by 7 or so, trump is in double digits.
And Obama could do no wrong. He wasn't under fib investigation. And those are all the mitigating turnout factors. The real number for Obama was something on the lines of +7 dem turnout. A.c. is putting out +10 and trump is still ahead or tied. In Florida republicans have a slight edge in voter turnout so far and more republicans voted in the primary than dems.
I wouldn't say that unilaterally the polls are wrong but given that they show him ahead in nc, ohio, iowa, nevada, within 2 I pa, within 1 in Michigan and in a dead heat in Florida I like his position so far.