01-24-2018, 12:40 PM
***TL;DR DISCLAIMER***
***This is going to be a LOOOOONNNNGGGGG post, concerning the retention of players, depth, contract $ & cap space. It's a conversation about the long-term sustainability of this team. And if we're headed for "Cap Hell" like the 1999 team given our wealth of talent. if you're gonna tl;dr then this isn't the thread for you***
Blank #2.
Its pretty clear that this team has a window to make a real run at the damn thing in the coming years ... we also have a lot of questions that need to be answered that could drastically change the long term course of this franchise. I'm sure Jags02 might have more intimate knowledge of the issues I'm about to pose but I think its a real concern that if navigated properly will keep us contending for the next decade+ ... or Losing the wealth of talent we've accumulated and having to reload the roster
.
I know we have John Idzik who's a salary cap savant (just dont let him near personnel decisions & talent evaluation). But we also have Coughlin running the show again, which yielded dividends this past season, but by the same token the contracts doled out and aggressive moves put us in "Cap Hell" that caused that roster to be prematurely dismantled. Could we be facing the same situation here in 2018? If so what can be done to avoid it?
The situation: From various reports I'm seeing that we have somewhere between $18-26 million in cap space (varies by source, can anyone verify the exact figure?); and have the following questions for the coming 2018 year.
Q: Free Agency - Should we get involved? I'm not saying we need to splurge like we did last year, but we may have to choose to load up for one big run short term, or sitting on the cap space to lock up our future talent when their contracts expire in the next few years past 2018. Does our success this year, attract some veterans who will come relatively cheap trying to hitch a ride to get a ring?
Q: Depth - we've spent a lot of money, but in reality... we got very very lucky with injuries this past year barring ARob. If we were to lose some of our big money guys... do we have the depth at key positions to keep rolling?
Q: THE QB - Are we rolling with Blake Bortles next season? are we picking up his option for next season at 19 Million Fully Guaranteed? (is his option already factored into our current cap space? or would it eat up the majority of our remaining room, i'm not sure how that is reflected in our current cap figure) Do we sign him to an extension thats more palatable? Do we draft a QB? Do we try and sign a Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater, or AJ McCarron? will that be more or less expensive than Bortles?
Q: WR - Do we Franchise Tag ARob? Do we sign him to an extension? does he get a 1 year "prove it" deal coming off the injury?
Do we try and restructure Allen Hurns' 7 Million Cap Hit? Would he be amenable to a re-structure?
Do we re-sign Lee? Given the inexpensive (and less injury prone) youth at the position in Cole, Westbrook, Mickens etc. is he even worth it?
Q: RB - Ivory is gone and so is his sizable cap hit. Yeldon is entering the final year of his contract, and Corey Grant is about to become a RFA. Considering how often we run the ball alone, coupled with LF27 having chronic ankle injuries, depth at the RB position is paramount to the future success of this team. Do we work to bring back Grant/Yeldon and at what cost
Q: TE - Marcedes is nearing the end of his career. we have him for one more year at $3.5 million. O'Shaughnessy seems like a solid player and ST contributor for his cost. But it's clear this position is a weakness that will need to be addressed... either with $$$ or draft capital.
Q: NCB - Colvin is a free agent, has been an outside starter previously, and played over half our defensive snaps. Telvin has advocated resigning him and Poz as being "key to what we did on D last year ... we wont be the same defense without them". That said, idt Colvin has ever had an interception.. he only has a handful of PD's and while he seems to have tight coverage I feel like he lacks ball skills; and with QB's avoiding throwing Ramsey and Bouye's way I'm concerned that he'll continue to be a weakness at the Inside Corner spot that his blitzing doesnt make up for. The deeper question is if Colvin prices himself out of Duval, are Jalen Myrick & Tyler Patmon ready to step up and man the Nickel? If not how early a draft pick can you really spend on a CB who's celing on the depth chart will be #3 at best given the talent already there. This is the question that will have the most impact on the continued success of this defense going forward.
Q: LB - Poz is a Free Agent, he's a good run defender, EXCELLENT leader. I think a team friendly 1 year deal similar to what Marcedes has would make a lot of sense. Also I know the NFL is "what have you done for me lately" league, but after suffering with the fans through the bad years for so long, I think Poz has earned the right to stick around for the Crescendo of the rebuild although he may not be the full time guy at the spot.
Q: S - Gipson and Church both have roughly $7 million Cap hits ... they're also (for a myriad of reasons) the guys that get picked on the most in coverage. Could we save money and have similar production by rolling with A Jarrod Wilson (who played well in the Pitt playoff game). Or are they too key to our communication on D?
Q: DT - Malik Jackson, Marcell Dareus and Abry Jones are all on second contracts (while Malik and Marcell are $15 million and Abry's is palatable, this is noteworthy)... I doubt either wants to restructure. But thats a LOT of money tied up into one position that has scarce depth. I think waiving Sheldon Day in a numbers game to get healthy bodies at injury struck positions will come back to haunt us. I'm concerned with the lack of depth at this spot given the money invested in it.
Q: Future Talent - What money will we have available to resign our "core guys". Most of the players I mention above are role players that just finished their contracts but the desire to keep the team that made this run together may sacrifice our ability to retain key players long term. Speaking of which, Jalen Ramsey will command a contract that makes him the highest paid CB (if not Defensive player) in NFL history. Myles Jack will get a contract more lucrative than Telvin (here or elsewhere; given his knee concerns i could see them trading him/letting him walk). Yannick will get paid, as will Fowler, I'm concerned as to our ability to pay both. Fournette and Cam Robinson will need contracts in 3-4 years and we may lose them by trying to retain players whose contracts are up sooner. Don't get me wrong, it's a good problem to have but im concerned this window we have will only be open for 3 years (without factoring in how well we draft etc.)
Again our cap situation is dubious, I'm not sure how we'll be able to navigate it. If Jags02 or another cap expert could weigh in i'd be very interested to see how our situation really shakes out. I have answers to the above question on what I think the Jags should hypothetically do; I'll post it after some inital debate! What do you guys think? Are we headed for Cap Hell? ... and who gets resigned?
***This is going to be a LOOOOONNNNGGGGG post, concerning the retention of players, depth, contract $ & cap space. It's a conversation about the long-term sustainability of this team. And if we're headed for "Cap Hell" like the 1999 team given our wealth of talent. if you're gonna tl;dr then this isn't the thread for you***
Blank #2.
Its pretty clear that this team has a window to make a real run at the damn thing in the coming years ... we also have a lot of questions that need to be answered that could drastically change the long term course of this franchise. I'm sure Jags02 might have more intimate knowledge of the issues I'm about to pose but I think its a real concern that if navigated properly will keep us contending for the next decade+ ... or Losing the wealth of talent we've accumulated and having to reload the roster
.I know we have John Idzik who's a salary cap savant (just dont let him near personnel decisions & talent evaluation). But we also have Coughlin running the show again, which yielded dividends this past season, but by the same token the contracts doled out and aggressive moves put us in "Cap Hell" that caused that roster to be prematurely dismantled. Could we be facing the same situation here in 2018? If so what can be done to avoid it?
The situation: From various reports I'm seeing that we have somewhere between $18-26 million in cap space (varies by source, can anyone verify the exact figure?); and have the following questions for the coming 2018 year.
Q: Free Agency - Should we get involved? I'm not saying we need to splurge like we did last year, but we may have to choose to load up for one big run short term, or sitting on the cap space to lock up our future talent when their contracts expire in the next few years past 2018. Does our success this year, attract some veterans who will come relatively cheap trying to hitch a ride to get a ring?
Q: Depth - we've spent a lot of money, but in reality... we got very very lucky with injuries this past year barring ARob. If we were to lose some of our big money guys... do we have the depth at key positions to keep rolling?
Q: THE QB - Are we rolling with Blake Bortles next season? are we picking up his option for next season at 19 Million Fully Guaranteed? (is his option already factored into our current cap space? or would it eat up the majority of our remaining room, i'm not sure how that is reflected in our current cap figure) Do we sign him to an extension thats more palatable? Do we draft a QB? Do we try and sign a Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater, or AJ McCarron? will that be more or less expensive than Bortles?
Q: WR - Do we Franchise Tag ARob? Do we sign him to an extension? does he get a 1 year "prove it" deal coming off the injury?
Do we try and restructure Allen Hurns' 7 Million Cap Hit? Would he be amenable to a re-structure?
Do we re-sign Lee? Given the inexpensive (and less injury prone) youth at the position in Cole, Westbrook, Mickens etc. is he even worth it?
Q: RB - Ivory is gone and so is his sizable cap hit. Yeldon is entering the final year of his contract, and Corey Grant is about to become a RFA. Considering how often we run the ball alone, coupled with LF27 having chronic ankle injuries, depth at the RB position is paramount to the future success of this team. Do we work to bring back Grant/Yeldon and at what cost
Q: TE - Marcedes is nearing the end of his career. we have him for one more year at $3.5 million. O'Shaughnessy seems like a solid player and ST contributor for his cost. But it's clear this position is a weakness that will need to be addressed... either with $$$ or draft capital.
Q: NCB - Colvin is a free agent, has been an outside starter previously, and played over half our defensive snaps. Telvin has advocated resigning him and Poz as being "key to what we did on D last year ... we wont be the same defense without them". That said, idt Colvin has ever had an interception.. he only has a handful of PD's and while he seems to have tight coverage I feel like he lacks ball skills; and with QB's avoiding throwing Ramsey and Bouye's way I'm concerned that he'll continue to be a weakness at the Inside Corner spot that his blitzing doesnt make up for. The deeper question is if Colvin prices himself out of Duval, are Jalen Myrick & Tyler Patmon ready to step up and man the Nickel? If not how early a draft pick can you really spend on a CB who's celing on the depth chart will be #3 at best given the talent already there. This is the question that will have the most impact on the continued success of this defense going forward.
Q: LB - Poz is a Free Agent, he's a good run defender, EXCELLENT leader. I think a team friendly 1 year deal similar to what Marcedes has would make a lot of sense. Also I know the NFL is "what have you done for me lately" league, but after suffering with the fans through the bad years for so long, I think Poz has earned the right to stick around for the Crescendo of the rebuild although he may not be the full time guy at the spot.
Q: S - Gipson and Church both have roughly $7 million Cap hits ... they're also (for a myriad of reasons) the guys that get picked on the most in coverage. Could we save money and have similar production by rolling with A Jarrod Wilson (who played well in the Pitt playoff game). Or are they too key to our communication on D?
Q: DT - Malik Jackson, Marcell Dareus and Abry Jones are all on second contracts (while Malik and Marcell are $15 million and Abry's is palatable, this is noteworthy)... I doubt either wants to restructure. But thats a LOT of money tied up into one position that has scarce depth. I think waiving Sheldon Day in a numbers game to get healthy bodies at injury struck positions will come back to haunt us. I'm concerned with the lack of depth at this spot given the money invested in it.
Q: Future Talent - What money will we have available to resign our "core guys". Most of the players I mention above are role players that just finished their contracts but the desire to keep the team that made this run together may sacrifice our ability to retain key players long term. Speaking of which, Jalen Ramsey will command a contract that makes him the highest paid CB (if not Defensive player) in NFL history. Myles Jack will get a contract more lucrative than Telvin (here or elsewhere; given his knee concerns i could see them trading him/letting him walk). Yannick will get paid, as will Fowler, I'm concerned as to our ability to pay both. Fournette and Cam Robinson will need contracts in 3-4 years and we may lose them by trying to retain players whose contracts are up sooner. Don't get me wrong, it's a good problem to have but im concerned this window we have will only be open for 3 years (without factoring in how well we draft etc.)
Again our cap situation is dubious, I'm not sure how we'll be able to navigate it. If Jags02 or another cap expert could weigh in i'd be very interested to see how our situation really shakes out. I have answers to the above question on what I think the Jags should hypothetically do; I'll post it after some inital debate! What do you guys think? Are we headed for Cap Hell? ... and who gets resigned?