Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Mike Kaye offers the thought.

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/sp...-513637100

Interesting. Not sure how I’d feel about that. How much cap space would that save?

I don't want to trade him, but we already have two good starters and if trading him would somehow help in finding a way to get a good QB, I may be talked into it. The only reason is we have two established starters playing in front of him,.

I would be opposed to trading Fowler at this point for a few reasons.

First, playing a part time role, he still mustered 8 sacks. It stands to reason that if he got more playing time, he'd reach double digit sacks. Considering pass rushers are a marquee position, you don't trade them away. You stockpile them as much as possible. He is still young and in his prime. Besides, should Ngakoue or Campbell become injured, the need for a quality pass rusher would not diminish in those circumstances. Lest we forget, this team was 2:37 away from the Super Bowl this year. Trading away a key contributor from that defense when we are this close to reaching the Super Bowl is not prudent.

With that in mind, a 3rd round pick would not be adequate compensation for someone with the above traits. If we just let him walk as a free agent, we could get as much as a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick for him, depending upon the circumstances surrounding his departure. Considering those compensatory picks can now be packaged in a trade, they are even more valuable than before. The value of getting Fowler's pass rush for another year and simply letting him walk outweighs the value of getting him for a 3.

Furthermore, even though there are numerous guys coming up that will need new deals like Ngakoue, Ramsey and Jack, there are other free agents coming up who play less vital positions. Though I value the contributions of guys like Church, Gipson, Poz and Abry Jones, to say nothing of some less talented guys on offense, I would consider letting them go if it meant keeping Fowler and his pass rush if it came down to it.

Now there are some circumstances where I might reconsider.

If a team is willing to dramatically overpay in terms of trade compensation (i.e. a 1st rounder plus), I'd certainly consider it. If dealing Fowler meant getting the long term answer at QB (assuming the team does not think Bortles is that guy and the effort to land a guy like Cousins fails or is otherwise undesirable), I'd certainly consider it.

Otherwise...keep him.

(02-02-2018, 11:08 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]I would be opposed to trading Fowler at this point for a few reasons.

First, playing a part time role, he still mustered 8 sacks.  It stands to reason that if he got more playing time, he'd reach double digit sacks.  Considering pass rushers are a marquee position, you don't trade them away.  You stockpile them as much as possible.  He is still young and in his prime.  Besides, should Ngakoue or Campbell become injured, the need for a quality pass rusher would not diminish in those circumstances.  Lest we forget, this team was 2:37 away from the Super Bowl this year.  Trading away a key contributor from that defense when we are this close to reaching the Super Bowl is not prudent.

With that in mind, a 3rd round pick would not be adequate compensation for someone with the above traits.  If we just let him walk as a free agent, we could get as much as a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick for him, depending upon the circumstances surrounding his departure.  Considering those compensatory picks can now be packaged in a trade, they are even more valuable than before.  The value of getting Fowler's pass rush for another year and simply letting him walk outweighs the value of getting him for a 3.

Furthermore, even though there are numerous guys coming up that will need new deals like Ngakoue, Ramsey and Jack, there are other free agents coming up who play less vital positions.  Though I value the contributions of guys like Church, Gipson, Poz and Abry Jones, to say nothing of some less talented guys on offense, I would consider letting them go if it meant keeping Fowler and his pass rush if it came down to it.

Now there are some circumstances where I might reconsider.

If a team is willing to dramatically overpay in terms of trade compensation (i.e. a 1st rounder plus), I'd certainly consider it.  If dealing Fowler meant getting the long term answer at QB (assuming the team does not think Bortles is that guy and the effort to land a guy like Cousins fails or is otherwise undesirable), I'd certainly consider it.

Otherwise...keep him.

I think I'm in the same boat as you.

A 3rd round pick seems too low for me.

If the team were to trade Fowler....

In 2018, Fowler was to count about $7.5m against the cap. If traded, the team would save $3.6m cap in base salary, but would still have a $3.8m overall cap hit from the unamortized balance of his original signing bonus.

Assuming the team had wanted to keep Fowler in 2019 by exercising his 5th year option, the team would be saving about $14m in 5th year money and cap. (this $14m figure was the amount in 2017, and likely will be higher in 2019).

For me, it makes no sense to trade him this offseason if you would only receive a 3rd round pick and save only $3.6m in cap this year. If you let him walk after next year, the team would likely receive a 3rd round compensatory pick for him anyway.

At some point we're going to have too many guys to resign and you're going to have to make the decision to either cut bait and try to get something out of them or let them walk later for free. I like Dante and where he's developed, but I don't see him as one of the guys the Jags breaking the bank for.

(02-02-2018, 11:08 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]I would be opposed to trading Fowler at this point for a few reasons.

First, playing a part time role, he still mustered 8 sacks.  It stands to reason that if he got more playing time, he'd reach double digit sacks.  Considering pass rushers are a marquee position, you don't trade them away.  You stockpile them as much as possible.  He is still young and in his prime.  Besides, should Ngakoue or Campbell become injured, the need for a quality pass rusher would not diminish in those circumstances.  Lest we forget, this team was 2:37 away from the Super Bowl this year.  Trading away a key contributor from that defense when we are this close to reaching the Super Bowl is not prudent.

With that in mind, a 3rd round pick would not be adequate compensation for someone with the above traits. If we just let him walk as a free agent, we could get as much as a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick for him, depending upon the circumstances surrounding his departure.  Considering those compensatory picks can now be packaged in a trade, they are even more valuable than before.  The value of getting Fowler's pass rush for another year and simply letting him walk outweighs the value of getting him for a 3.

Furthermore, even though there are numerous guys coming up that will need new deals like Ngakoue, Ramsey and Jack, there are other free agents coming up who play less vital positions.  Though I value the contributions of guys like Church, Gipson, Poz and Abry Jones, to say nothing of some less talented guys on offense, I would consider letting them go if it meant keeping Fowler and his pass rush if it came down to it.

Now there are some circumstances where I might reconsider.

If a team is willing to dramatically overpay in terms of trade compensation (i.e. a 1st rounder plus), I'd certainly consider it.  If dealing Fowler meant getting the long term answer at QB (assuming the team does not think Bortles is that guy and the effort to land a guy like Cousins fails or is otherwise undesirable), I'd certainly consider it.

Otherwise...keep him.

Bingo. I was just about to post this.

Calais has his best year this year but is no spring chicken. i can see fowler getting a few more snaps next year resting Calais more.

No one trades a young pass rusher except the Patriots.

(02-02-2018, 11:19 AM)ATLjag Wrote: [ -> ]If the team were to trade Fowler....

In 2018, Fowler was to count about $7.5m against the cap.  If traded, the team would save $3.6m cap in base salary, but would still have a $3.8m overall cap hit from the unamortized balance of his original signing bonus.  

Assuming the team had wanted to keep Fowler in 2019 by exercising his 5th year option, the team would be saving about $14m in 5th year money and cap.  (this $14m figure was the amount in 2017, and likely will be higher in 2019).

For me, it makes no sense to trade him this offseason if you would only receive a 3rd round pick and save only $3.6m in cap this year.  If you let him walk after next year, the team would likely receive a 3rd round compensatory pick for him anyway.

(Emphasis added)

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(02-02-2018, 11:30 AM)UCF Knight Wrote: [ -> ]At some point we're going to have too many guys to resign and you're going to have to make the decision to either cut bait and try to get something out of them or let them walk later for free.  I like Dante and where he's developed, but I don't see him as one of the guys the Jags breaking the bank for.

What I love about this discussion is that we now have so much talent, we have to decide which ones to keep and which ones to trade/let walk.

This is far different and much better from where we were after Gene Smith, isn't it?

(02-02-2018, 11:08 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]I would be opposed to trading Fowler at this point for a few reasons.

First, playing a part time role, he still mustered 8 sacks.  It stands to reason that if he got more playing time, he'd reach double digit sacks.  Considering pass rushers are a marquee position, you don't trade them away.  You stockpile them as much as possible.  He is still young and in his prime.  Besides, should Ngakoue or Campbell become injured, the need for a quality pass rusher would not diminish in those circumstances.  Lest we forget, this team was 2:37 away from the Super Bowl this year.  Trading away a key contributor from that defense when we are this close to reaching the Super Bowl is not prudent.

With that in mind, a 3rd round pick would not be adequate compensation for someone with the above traits.  If we just let him walk as a free agent, we could get as much as a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick for him, depending upon the circumstances surrounding his departure.  Considering those compensatory picks can now be packaged in a trade, they are even more valuable than before.  The value of getting Fowler's pass rush for another year and simply letting him walk outweighs the value of getting him for a 3.

Furthermore, even though there are numerous guys coming up that will need new deals like Ngakoue, Ramsey and Jack, there are other free agents coming up who play less vital positions.  Though I value the contributions of guys like Church, Gipson, Poz and Abry Jones, to say nothing of some less talented guys on offense, I would consider letting them go if it meant keeping Fowler and his pass rush if it came down to it.

Now there are some circumstances where I might reconsider.

If a team is willing to dramatically overpay in terms of trade compensation (i.e. a 1st rounder plus), I'd certainly consider it.  If dealing Fowler meant getting the long term answer at QB (assuming the team does not think Bortles is that guy and the effort to land a guy like Cousins fails or is otherwise undesirable), I'd certainly consider it.

Otherwise...keep him.

Totally agree.

(02-02-2018, 11:37 AM)JAGFAN88 Wrote: [ -> ]Calais has his best year this year but is no spring chicken. i can see fowler getting a few more snaps next year resting Calais more.

This.

If we keep Fowler another year, he has another year to mature and be influenced by Calais.

By 2019, Fowler will likely have learned how to conduct himself as a pro football player from one of the best.  He would have developed his array of pass rush moves and learned to study film.  But he would also be 25 years old-easily within his prime years.

Campbell-a huge contributor to this team and has helped give this franchise credibility around the league-will be 33 by the start of the 2019 season.  While I'd love to see him retire as a Super Bowl champion as a Jaguar, he can't realistically be counted upon to maintain his current level of play at that age.

(02-02-2018, 11:37 AM)JAGFAN88 Wrote: [ -> ]Calais has his best year this year but is no spring chicken. i can see fowler getting a few more snaps next year resting Calais more.

They are two totally different types of pass rushers though.

(02-02-2018, 11:54 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]No one trades a young pass rusher except the Patriots.

Agreed!  

Unless it’s some super lucrative deal, I don’t want to get rid of him. Who knows... he could turn into the leagues best pass rusher next year. His AFC championship game performance would certainly help get someone to trade for him though.

I feel like Fowler is still developing. 

I’d like to see how it goes.

Why do we, the fans, obsessively want to trade guys as soon as they're good?

Keep Fowler around as long as we can. If we let him walk after next season, he's the same late third-round pick that he would be if traded this year.

Nope don’t trade him. Just keep him. If he walks you get a comp pick. And like you stated, you could replace someone like Church or Gipson easier than Fowler.

(02-02-2018, 01:37 PM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ]Why do we, the fans, obsessively want to trade guys as soon as they're good?

Keep Fowler around as long as we can. If we let him walk after next season, he's the same late third-round pick that he would be if traded this year.

To be clear, Mike Kaye, who is media, kicked this idea around.

I argued against this.