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Full Version: The long term future may not be as dark as I thought
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(09-14-2018, 09:45 AM)TheDogCatcher Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-14-2018, 04:39 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]We've discussed at length that eventually (probably 2019), we're gonna have to start cutting key players on defense in order to stay under the cap. I got to looking on Spot Trac and after doing some figuring, the future may not be as gloomy as I once thought. According to their site, with an adjusted cap we'd be approximately $4-5 million over. With that said, we already invested in replacements for Malik Jackson, Barry Church and Jeremy Parnell in the last draft with the selections of Taven Bryan, Ronnie Harrison and Will Richardson. This season, most of those players are getting some spot playing time, to groom them for possibly starting next year, so they won't come in totally inexperienced. Looking at the savings for those veterans, we'd save $6 million by cutting or trading Parnell, $6.250 million by cutting or trading Church and although he would count $4 million in dead money, we'd save $15 million by cutting or trading Malik Jackson, which would give us a total savings of $11 million on his contract. Add these three contracts together and we have a savings of $19.250 million. Deduct the $5 million that we'd be over the cap and we'd still have over $14 million, with which we could extend the contracts of our young stars. In addition to this, those guys we would lose still have years left on their deals and they are very highly regarded players in the league. They have real trade value. We could trade them to move up in the draft, much like Buffalo did by trading Cordy Glenn to the Bengals last year or just trade them for picks. I also expect us to get a compensatory pick in the 3-4 round range for Dante Fowler as well. The subtractions of Parnell, Church and Jackson would also allow us to keep a key player like Marcell Dareus for another season, until we were able to draft his replacement. I'd expect us to draft a NT very early in 2019 and have him starting by 2020. I also believe we will replace Fowler somewhere in the 1-3 round range, as well as adding a RG. Cann is on the final year of his contract and will demand a higher salary, so selecting an OG is a must. The key is good drafting. If we draft wisely, we can keep fielding an elite team for quite a while. I feel much better and can fully focus on this season. If I am wrong or didn't do the math correctly, break it to me gently. This put me in a very good mood.

Just trade Ramsey for two firsts or a first, a two, and a five. Parlay that into picking a QB high and drafting hopefully an above average corner. Yannick is more valuable/rare and Ramsey has the most trade value.

Is that you Jon Gruden? LOL. Let's just trade away arguably the greatest overall player and athlete this franchise has ever had since Fred Taylor in his prime. I would cut or trade Bortles and/or Lee to make room for retaining Ramsey and anybody else on defense that we need before even daring to trade away Ramsey. 

[Image: tenor.gif?itemid=10704725]
Just keep drafting young talent and this stuff takes care of itself.
(09-14-2018, 11:07 AM)Eye of the Storm Wrote: [ -> ]Perfect example of why landing an elite franchise QB is essential in today’s NFL. Having to spend big dollars on multiple positions on defense will eventually hamstring your salary cap and once they start leaving or getting past their prime your fortunes change rapidly. Having a franchise QB is really the only way of assuring that you can field a competitive team year after year.

It helps but it's never guaranteed. You think the Ravens are stoked about having Joe Flacco right now? Falcons with Ryan? What about Stafford in Detroit? Rivers with the Chargers? They don't really have consistently good teams around their QB's at all. You either shell out big bucks for an Elite QB that may or may not be able to carry your team in it's entirety or you get a decent QB that can benefit substantially from a well rounded roster. 

All of those guys I listed above have played a lot longer and have done a lot more in the NFL and yet have very little to show for it. Flacco earned his ring with a decent play-off push but it was mostly his defense that got it done all year. Having a franchise QB only matters if you have enough pieces around them to excel. 

Because 9 times out of 10 it's those well rounded, well balanced and stacked rosters from top down that you end up seeing in the play-offs. We'll see how far Rodgers and Brees gets this year. I consider those two truly elite franchise QB's. Along with Brady. Roethlisberger and Rivers are just a few hairs short.
(09-14-2018, 12:45 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-14-2018, 09:45 AM)TheDogCatcher Wrote: [ -> ]Just trade Ramsey for two firsts or a first, a two, and a five. Parlay that into picking a QB high and drafting hopefully an above average corner. Yannick is more valuable/rare and Ramsey has the most trade value.

Is that you Jon Gruden? LOL. Let's just trade away arguably the greatest overall player and athlete this franchise has ever had since Fred Taylor in his prime. I would cut or trade Bortles and/or Lee to make room for retaining Ramsey and anybody else on defense that we need before even daring to trade away Ramsey. 

[Image: tenor.gif?itemid=10704725]

agreed
The future may not be as dark as I thought.

We can cut a bunch of all-pro players, replace then with rookies, and we'll be back under the salary cap!

I feel so much better now.
(09-14-2018, 01:32 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]The future may not be as dark as I thought.  

We can cut a bunch of all-pro players, replace then with rookies, and we'll be back under the salary cap!

I feel so much better now.

Huh?
Not at all what was said... 

We can cut guys with large contracts and replace them with 2nd year players (they are rookies this year, won't be next year)
Draft other rookies for other upcoming cuts (cuz we won't cut ALL of our all-pro talent, just the ones whose play no longer matches the pay)
And re-work some other deals likely to be under the cap.

I doubt we have more than 2 rookies starting total next year. Maybe a guard.....Maaaybe a safety....maaaaaybe a quarterback.
Replacements on DL for large contracts include Taven Bryan (no one is saying he definitely comes in, also...other than Malik, Campbell could be a casualty instead) Also Abry Jones and Eli Ankou may be ready to take over for Dareus.
Harrison has already shown he's ready to play, Church isn't exactly the most elite safety... not sure he's all-pro either. This is where hyperbole hurts your argument.

I don't understand why fans refuse to let go (and right now, it's just talking about possibility of letting go)
At some point an aging Campbell, Dareus, and Jackson will have to give way.
Gip and Church aren't young and certainly aren't irreplaceable.

It's a good problem to have imo. Young talent we as fans feel comfortable taking over for some pretty good talent along areas of strength for this team.
(09-14-2018, 12:42 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]Malik Jackson ain't going anywhere.

Then why did we draft Taven Bryan?
(09-14-2018, 01:55 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-14-2018, 12:42 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]Malik Jackson ain't going anywhere.

Then why did we draft Taven Bryan?

To replace Campbell honestly.
He's a big end that can play inside imo. That's how the team has been playing him mostly and how he is listed on the depth chart iirc.
(09-14-2018, 01:32 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]The future may not be as dark as I thought.  

We can cut a bunch of all-pro players, replace then with rookies, and we'll be back under the salary cap!

I feel so much better now.

^

(09-14-2018, 01:48 PM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-14-2018, 01:32 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]The future may not be as dark as I thought.  

We can cut a bunch of all-pro players, replace then with rookies, and we'll be back under the salary cap!

I feel so much better now.

Huh?
Not at all what was said... 

We can cut guys with large contracts and replace them with 2nd year players (they are rookies this year, won't be next year)
Draft other rookies for other upcoming cuts (cuz we won't cut ALL of our all-pro talent, just the ones whose play no longer matches the pay)
And re-work some other deals likely to be under the cap.

I doubt we have more than 2 rookies starting total next year. Maybe a guard.....Maaaybe a safety....maaaaaybe a quarterback.
Replacements on DL for large contracts include Taven Bryan (no one is saying he definitely comes in, also...other than Malik, Campbell could be a casualty instead) Also Abry Jones and Eli Ankou may be ready to take over for Dareus.
Harrison has already shown he's ready to play, Church isn't exactly the most elite safety... not sure he's all-pro either. This is where hyperbole hurts your argument.

I don't understand why fans refuse to let go (and right now, it's just talking about possibility of letting go)
At some point an aging Campbell, Dareus, and Jackson will have to give way.
Gip and Church aren't young and certainly aren't irreplaceable.

It's a good problem to have imo. Young talent we as fans feel comfortable taking over for some pretty good talent along areas of strength for this team.

putting some other guy in another guy's place does not mean they automatically play like them, sorry, doesnt work that way

abry and ankou will not be ready next year to replace dareus because neither of those guys are as good as dareus at what he does, and they wont be next year either

taven bryan is not going to replace campbell miraculously in year 2 just because he isnt a rookie anymore... Taven Bryan is not calais campbell

the list goes on, until those guys show they are as good as the guys they are replacing, it is a DOWNGRADE

why do we need to cut campbell and or jackson next year when ramsey, jack, and yannick are all still on their rookie deals?  why?
(09-14-2018, 02:02 PM)Krayz_Jville_D Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-14-2018, 01:32 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]The future may not be as dark as I thought.  

We can cut a bunch of all-pro players, replace then with rookies, and we'll be back under the salary cap!

I feel so much better now.

^

(09-14-2018, 01:48 PM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ]Huh?
Not at all what was said... 

We can cut guys with large contracts and replace them with 2nd year players (they are rookies this year, won't be next year)
Draft other rookies for other upcoming cuts (cuz we won't cut ALL of our all-pro talent, just the ones whose play no longer matches the pay)
And re-work some other deals likely to be under the cap.

I doubt we have more than 2 rookies starting total next year. Maybe a guard.....Maaaybe a safety....maaaaaybe a quarterback.
Replacements on DL for large contracts include Taven Bryan (no one is saying he definitely comes in, also...other than Malik, Campbell could be a casualty instead) Also Abry Jones and Eli Ankou may be ready to take over for Dareus.
Harrison has already shown he's ready to play, Church isn't exactly the most elite safety... not sure he's all-pro either. This is where hyperbole hurts your argument.

I don't understand why fans refuse to let go (and right now, it's just talking about possibility of letting go)
At some point an aging Campbell, Dareus, and Jackson will have to give way.
Gip and Church aren't young and certainly aren't irreplaceable.

It's a good problem to have imo. Young talent we as fans feel comfortable taking over for some pretty good talent along areas of strength for this team.

putting some other guy in another guy's place does not mean they automatically play like them, sorry, doesnt work that way

abry and ankou will not be ready next year to replace dareus because neither of those guys are as good as dareus at what he does, and they wont be next year either

taven bryan is not going to replace campbell miraculously in year 2 just because he isnt a rookie anymore... Taven Bryan is not calais campbell

the list goes on, until those guys show they are as good as the guys they are replacing, it is a DOWNGRADE

why do we need to cut campbell and or jackson next year when ramsey, jack, and yannick are all still on their rookie deals?  why?

This is so funny and typical the sky is falling type stuff.
Everyone gets replaced. And all-pros game falls off. Also, no one is saying Taven steps in and becomes Campbell. That's why we hope our coach staff develops these kids.
This just in: those guys wont really show their stuff until they see the field. Some of which will happen this year.
If you guys think we're making it through next offseason without cutting someone you like that is very talented.... whoo, get the tissues ready.
We may not HAVE to get rid of any of them... but I'm thinking some moves are gonna be made before we HAVE to in order to manipulate the cap and stagger the deals out.

Will we take a step back at some positions? Probably. Is that the price we may have to pay in order to keep some other guys? Probably.

C'est la vie
(09-14-2018, 01:59 PM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-14-2018, 01:55 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]Then why did we draft Taven Bryan?

To replace Campbell honestly.
He's a big end that can play inside imo. That's how the team has been playing him mostly and how he is listed on the depth chart iirc.

agree, I think he is to replace Campbell
(09-14-2018, 02:31 PM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-14-2018, 02:02 PM)Krayz_Jville_D Wrote: [ -> ]^


putting some other guy in another guy's place does not mean they automatically play like them, sorry, doesnt work that way

abry and ankou will not be ready next year to replace dareus because neither of those guys are as good as dareus at what he does, and they wont be next year either

taven bryan is not going to replace campbell miraculously in year 2 just because he isnt a rookie anymore... Taven Bryan is not calais campbell

the list goes on, until those guys show they are as good as the guys they are replacing, it is a DOWNGRADE

why do we need to cut campbell and or jackson next year when ramsey, jack, and yannick are all still on their rookie deals?  why?

This is so funny and typical the sky is falling type stuff.
Everyone gets replaced. And all-pros game falls off. Also, no one is saying Taven steps in and becomes Campbell. That's why we hope our coach staff develops these kids.
This just in: those guys wont really show their stuff until they see the field. Some of which will happen this year.
If you guys think we're making it through next offseason without cutting someone you like that is very talented.... whoo, get the tissues ready.
We may not HAVE to get rid of any of them... but I'm thinking some moves are gonna be made before we HAVE to in order to manipulate the cap and stagger the deals out.

Will we take a step back at some positions? Probably. Is that the price we may have to pay in order to keep some other guys? Probably.

C'est la vie

no this is not sky is falling, but it isnt teal colored glasses saying oh next man up and we wont miss a beat!!

and yes, you guys are talking about replacing guys when we dont have too.  Not one time in your posts are people saying we will only need to replace them if they fall off a cliff, you guys are discussing it like its a forgone logical conclusion that they will be cut next year

again, our 3 young studs are in year 3 of a 4 year rookie deal ( I believe its 4 years )... meaning we dont need to cut anyone next year.  If we need to make cuts to fit the current team under, there are far more candidates I would go too way before our best players.  Marquise Lee is an easy one... we have Moncrief freeing up 10 mill next year, I would cut Parnell ages before jackson or campbell.  I dont want to move on from Church yet if he continues playing well, but I would move on from him before Jackson or Campbell or Dareus..

and again this is of course assuming those 3 dlineman have good seasons again, which after what I saw in game 1, I dont see that being an issue.

It's almost comical how logic goes out the window with this fanbase some times.. It was gone when we stunk, and somehow, it's still absent even when we are good.

After NEXT season, then you can choose to let Jackson go in FA if we want, then we can talk about cutting Campbell as he will be in the 4th year of his deal and probably in steep decline at that point, and you can evaluate Dareus as well.

But this season and next season we do NOT have nor need to cut either of those 3
(09-14-2018, 01:59 PM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-14-2018, 01:55 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]Then why did we draft Taven Bryan?

To replace Campbell honestly.
He's a big end that can play inside imo. That's how the team has been playing him mostly and how he is listed on the depth chart iirc.

If that was the plan, it was stupid! Bryan is certainly no edge pass rusher. He totaled 5.5 sacks his ENTIRE college career. Calais had 4 sacks in one game last season. I could see Bryan being used as a pass rushing DT, but as an edge rusher, he's useless. When I've noticed him on the field in the preseason, he's been lined up on the inside. If Bryan is supposed to replace Calais Campbell, I hope Campbell never gets replaced.
If Ngakoue and Jack have seasons that we hope or expect of them this year and are in the running for All-Pro consideration, is it realistic to expect them to play for $830,000 and $1.3mil respectively next year? I sure don't think it is.
I expect a cut or two we may or may not hate. But I also expect them to restructure some contracts by turning next year's salary into a signing bonus and adding a year or some things along those lines.

In any case, I'm going to try and enjoy this year and not get worked up over things I have no control of that can't happen til after we win the Super Bowl anyway.
Ramsey will have his option picked up, but we can only franchise one of Jack/ Ngakoue after next season. It would be wise to work out one or both extensions this offseason.

I would imagine Dareus will be open to altering his current deal; if not, I think he will get released unfortunately.

I am also optimistic about Harrison, he may be ready to take over for Church next year.
(09-14-2018, 04:08 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-14-2018, 01:59 PM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ]To replace Campbell honestly.
He's a big end that can play inside imo. That's how the team has been playing him mostly and how he is listed on the depth chart iirc.

If that was the plan, it was stupid! Bryan is certainly no edge pass rusher. He totaled 5.5 sacks his ENTIRE college career. Calais had 4 sacks in one game last season. I could see Bryan being used as a pass rushing DT, but as an edge rusher, he's useless. When I've noticed him on the field in the preseason, he's been lined up on the inside. If Bryan is supposed to replace Calais Campbell, I hope Campbell never gets replaced.

I guess you thought the future was dark because you weren't paying attention to what they are doing. Bryan is a big end who will slide inside on passing downs, just like...Campbell.
(09-14-2018, 05:13 PM)rufftime Wrote: [ -> ]Ramsey will have his option picked up, but we can only franchise one of Jack/ Ngakoue after next season.  It would be wise to work out one or both extensions this offseason.  

I would imagine Dareus will be open to altering his current deal; if not, I think he will get released unfortunately.  

I am also optimistic about Harrison, he may be ready to take over for Church next year.

If that happens, our #1 priority has to be finding a run stuffing NT. Our run defense was flat out ugly, before he arrived. I don't wanna go back to that.

(09-14-2018, 06:02 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-14-2018, 04:08 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]If that was the plan, it was stupid! Bryan is certainly no edge pass rusher. He totaled 5.5 sacks his ENTIRE college career. Calais had 4 sacks in one game last season. I could see Bryan being used as a pass rushing DT, but as an edge rusher, he's useless. When I've noticed him on the field in the preseason, he's been lined up on the inside. If Bryan is supposed to replace Calais Campbell, I hope Campbell never gets replaced.

I guess you thought the future was dark because you weren't paying attention to what they are doing. Bryan is a big end who will slide inside on passing downs, just like...Campbell.

I have to watch the games on an 11 inch computer screen, because I live way out of market. I can barely make out who is in what spot and try to enjoy the game as well. I just remember in the preseason, when I was watching games on NFL Network on the 60 inch, Bryan was lining up on the inside every time I watched him.
(09-14-2018, 09:26 AM)MoJagFan Wrote: [ -> ]This is why Bortles contract gave them flexibility. I sure hope he can keep improving and getting better. I sure hope the coaching staff gets more aggressive as play improves.

This would be true if we paid out his salary flat, or even front loaded it like we could have. Unfortunately we only gave him 10 mil this year so we could go all in on studs like Moncrief and Hayden. The next two years of Bortles are 21 and 23 million, not cheap. Puts him in the same range as the always laughed at Flacco contract, and only a couple mil less than the derided Carr and Stafford deals. Yes, it's good that we can get out of Bortles' contract sooner than theirs...but it still makes this window dicey if we don't hit on virtually all of our young fill in draftees.
Look we must have had the worst 6 year stretch imaginable. I questioned watching football because the Jaguars would somehow be brought up as a punch line.. nothing will compare to those dark times.
(09-14-2018, 04:45 AM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]Draft and develop

Jars on the shelf

Maybe he had a point...

I miss that guy.

As long as a team has an elite QB, they have a chance at a super bowl every year.

A great defense only lasts about 2-4 years max and then you gotta start paying guys the big money.

Whoever suggested we should trade Ramsey,... wow. I just really don’t even know what to say about that one.
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