(12-25-2018, 01:54 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ] (12-24-2018, 04:06 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: [ -> ]He has missed on too many first round picks at the top of the draft. I do not trust him to even help with making picks going forward.
He is tied to Bortles and they both will be gone.
Having the top or close to the top in salary cap and having high round draft picks every year in his time here will do that. We should be much better off than were we are now.
High round draft picks every year?
As I recall, the criticism is that Caldwell misses on too many first round draft picks.
Let's look:
2013-Joeckel-MISS
2014-Bortles-MISS
2015-Fowler-MISS
2016-Ramsey-HIT
2017-Fournette-???
So there is a definite hit in one out of five first round picks.
So Jalen Ramsey and Ramsey alone is responsible for the turnaround from 2016 to 2017?
The Joeckel pick is forgivable. It was his first pick and filled a huge need. It's not Dave's fault the guy was destined to be a bust.
Ramsey was a no-brainer pick. He had legitimate star talent and was in a position of need. You would have made that pick, and so would 90% of the fans on this board.
The Bortles, Fournette, and Fowler picks are what hurt him.
If you take a QB that high in the 1st, you better have no doubts about his throwing ability.
If you pick a RB '' '' '' '' '', he better be the next Walter Payton. Durability issues in college should have been scrutinized better.
If you pick a DE '' '' '' '' '', he shouldn't have character &/or off-the-field issues.
...and if you pick a head coach, he should have a fully functional cerebrum and the ability to make the most of the talent he has in addition to being able to actually coach on game day.
Hindsight is best sight on this site.
(12-25-2018, 08:16 AM)KodiakJag Wrote: [ -> ] (12-25-2018, 01:54 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]High round draft picks every year?
As I recall, the criticism is that Caldwell misses on too many first round draft picks.
Let's look:
2013-Joeckel-MISS
2014-Bortles-MISS
2015-Fowler-MISS
2016-Ramsey-HIT
2017-Fournette-???
So there is a definite hit in one out of five first round picks.
So Jalen Ramsey and Ramsey alone is responsible for the turnaround from 2016 to 2017?
The Joeckel pick is forgivable. It was his first pick and filled a huge need. It's not Dave's fault the guy was destined to be a bust.
Ramsey was a no-brainer pick. He had legitimate star talent and was in a position of need. You would have made that pick, and so would 90% of the fans on this board.
The Bortles, Fournette, and Fowler picks are what hurt him.
If you take a QB that high in the 1st, you better have no doubts about his throwing ability.
If you pick a RB '' '' '' '' '', he better be the next Walter Payton. Durability issues in college should have been scrutinized better.
If you pick a DE '' '' '' '' '', he shouldn't have character &/or off-the-field issues.
...and if you pick a head coach, he should have a fully functional cerebrum and the ability to make the most of the talent he has in addition to being able to actually coach on game day.
All of this is fine but is largely besides my point.
People are saying the high draft choices are the only reason the team made the turnaround.
There were five top 5 draft choices in the Caldwell era. If you remove the busts/questionable picks as factors in the Jaguars run in 2017 (not knowing, for the moment, how Bortles Fowler and Fournette can be removed as factors in that run, but nevermind that now), you are left with one guy-Ramsey. Every other pick-from Jack to Lee, Linder, Cam Robinson and Cann, to Ngakoue, Aaron Colvin and Telvin Smith-are all guys every other team in the league could have drafted, but didn't. Every other free agent-from Bouye and Campbell, Church and Gipson, Omameh and Parnell all could have been signed by other teams but weren't. How in the world can you exclude them, too?
Were they busts and not factors in last year's run?
Gene Smith had a slew of high draft choices too. Was there a playoff run during his tenure? Smith's picks weren't as high as Caldwell's? Maybe not, but at what point do high draft picks not become advantageous? There were teams with lower draft picks that got more out of them than Gene Smith and had playoff runs. There were GMs that had lower draft picks whose tenure did not end in rosters completely devoid of talent the way Smith left the team.
Furthermore, why should Caldwell be penalized for functioning effectively within the system the league established to promote competitive balance? Heck, to listen to many of you, Caldwell is to be castigated for not trading down in the first round, eliminating the very advantage you assert was key to the team's turnaround.
But I understand that surpassing Gene Smith isn't exactly an impressive feat. Let's compare the Caldwell era Jaguars roster to the Raiders of the similar era. They had almost as many top 5 picks during that time (3) as the Jaguars. In fact, I will even concede:
- The Raiders trade down in 2013 from #3 overall down to around 11 was better strategy than staying at 2 and taking Joeckel
- The Raiders' selections of Khalil Mack and Derek Carr in 2014 was better strategy than Caldwell's pick of Bortles that year
- The Raiders' selection of Amari Cooper was better than Caldwell's choice of Fowler in 2015
How many of you would have eagerly switched rosters with the Raiders after last season? I'd want to see the analysis.
The high draft pick argument is disingenuous and does not reflect what transpired here.
(12-25-2018, 08:31 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]Hindsight is best sight on this site.
If they would only cite the truth...
(12-25-2018, 01:54 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]So Jalen Ramsey and Ramsey alone is responsible for the turnaround from 2016 to 2017?
Add Bouye, Calais, Dareus, and Church to Malik/Gipson from the year before. More than half or more of our incredible defense is purely because Caldwell got to spend more FA $$$ than any GM in history has. Now that that the FA gravy train is turned off we're going to have to rely solely on his drafting skills, which aside from a few nice hits here and there has largely been flat out bad.
(12-25-2018, 11:12 AM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ] (12-25-2018, 01:54 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]So Jalen Ramsey and Ramsey alone is responsible for the turnaround from 2016 to 2017?
Add Bouye, Calais, Dareus, and Church to Malik/Gipson from the year before. More than half or more of our incredible defense is purely because Caldwell got to spend more FA $$$ than any GM in history has. Now that that the FA gravy train is turned off we're going to have to rely solely on his drafting skills, which aside from a few nice hits here and there has largely been flat out bad.
Which is fine, but Caldwell still had to see that Calais Campbell, who had never been a prolific pass rusher in Arizona, could improve this team's pass rush.
Caldwell still had to make the gamble on Bouye, who had the one year as a starter in Houston.
Caldwell still had to make the gamble on Dareus. The point is, he had to see the guys who would fit in the scheme and be assets.
Furthermore, don't make it seem as though it's his fault the team had all of that cap room.
How many of Gene Smith's picks earned second contracts with the team?
(12-25-2018, 12:23 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ] (12-25-2018, 11:12 AM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]Add Bouye, Calais, Dareus, and Church to Malik/Gipson from the year before. More than half or more of our incredible defense is purely because Caldwell got to spend more FA $$$ than any GM in history has. Now that that the FA gravy train is turned off we're going to have to rely solely on his drafting skills, which aside from a few nice hits here and there has largely been flat out bad.
Which is fine, but Caldwell still had to see that Calais Campbell, who had never been a prolific pass rusher in Arizona, could improve this team's pass rush.
Caldwell still had to make the gamble on Bouye, who had the one year as a starter in Houston.
Caldwell still had to make the gamble on Dareus. The point is, he had to see the guys who would fit in the scheme and be assets.
Furthermore, don't make it seem as though it's his fault the team had all of that cap room.
How many of Gene Smith's picks earned second contracts with the team?
+1
These moves weren't automatic no-brainers like the Ramsey pick - and after clearing the battlefield of the Gene Smith shrapnel and cannon fodder - any GM would need to do some pretty significant spending.
(12-25-2018, 12:27 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (12-25-2018, 12:23 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]Which is fine, but Caldwell still had to see that Calais Campbell, who had never been a prolific pass rusher in Arizona, could improve this team's pass rush.
Caldwell still had to make the gamble on Bouye, who had the one year as a starter in Houston.
Caldwell still had to make the gamble on Dareus. The point is, he had to see the guys who would fit in the scheme and be assets.
Furthermore, don't make it seem as though it's his fault the team had all of that cap room.
How many of Gene Smith's picks earned second contracts with the team?
+1
These moves weren't automatic no-brainers like the Ramsey pick - and after clearing the battlefield of the Gene Smith shrapnel and cannon fodder - any GM would need to do some pretty significant spending.
(emphasis added)
You were more generous than I.
My terms of choice were "carrion" and "detritus."
I'm not knocking Dave for largely building through FA. Use all of the assets at your disposal, and for him a massive part of that ammo was cap space. Unfortunately, now that the cap is gone he's going to have to rely very heavily on his drafting, and that has been nothing but subpar IMO. Subpar enough that I would not trust him to handle the next draft.
When you miss on almost every top 5 pick that you make, you don’t deserve more chances IMO.
He missed the Joeckel, Bortles, Fowler, and Fournette pick.
That is laughably bad.
Without khan spending crazy money in free agency we wouldn’t have come close a good year last year.
Dave’s gotta go. He should’ve been fired after his 3rd year with Bradley. Unfortunately they both stayed longer, and Dave is still here.
Only if Coughlin and Marrone are going with him.
Here's the thing: All the draft picks. Not just the first rounders. He has hit far more on defense than offense. And between the 3rd and 5th rounds were most of the good selections. Colvin at NB. Smith at LB. Ngakoue at DE. Linder at OL. Westbrook at WR. Etc. Most of his offense selections were bad.
Ramsey is the only worthy 1st round selection made. And again, on defense.
So, don't let him make the picks on offense?
(12-24-2018, 12:01 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]Eh.
I could go either way.
I've defended Dave at nearly every turn, but I have pretty hard gripes with a few of his picks and the Bortles extension is looking pretty bad.
That said - the Fournette pick, the neglecting of the QB and TE spots, Borltles' deal, and some sketchy o-line decisions have come under Coughlin's tenure. So - who do you really blame?
I just hope whoever is working with TC this Spring is able to influence a good QB pick. I'm fine if that's Caldwell, I'm fine if it's not.
Caldwell's knack for finding value in the mid to late rounds is an asset. I still feel strongly about that.
I agree with these statements. A lot of our picks seem to be pulling need over value, and often in years where the top players in the draft fail to fit our needs (much like this year!). Most of the picks made are understandable, either that we have a gaping hole at that roster spot (Joeckel, Blake, Fournette), or as with last draft, we are grabbing a guy to hopefully learn, develop, and make the more expensive free agents expendable.
We have managed to find some good players in the mid-to-late rounds, we have managed to sign some productive free agents. Blake's contract is a lot more franchise-friendly than some of the other guys signed that same year, so I give him some credit there.
My biggest fear is that we end up letting go of a guy who was on par with many of the other GMs out there (nobody hits on all their picks), and end up with a repeat of the Gene Smith years.
Most of the moves that DC makes, whether they pan out of not, I am typically happy with at the time he makes them (iirc people around here were happy with Luke the joke, Bradley, and most of the other moves people gripe about now when they were initially made). So I feel like I would playing the captain hindsight role if I say 'I think he has made a slew of bad moves drafting and otherwise'.
My only gripes with DC that I really didn't like at time they were made are the way we have addressed the QB position over the last year and the trading of fowler. Even though I understand the situation that lead to the fowler trade(the point he was at in his contract and our depth at the position), I don't think we got enough value for him in the trade or at least I don't believe we can replace the production he brought to the team for what we received in the trade. I have heard the argument that we were bound to lose him in the offseason so it was sort of a position were you take what you can get when you can, but I don't know that I necessarily buy that we couldn't work some kind of deal to keep him around or at the very least get a little more than we did out of him.
My other gripe being how we have addressed the qb situation over the last off season really comes down to what we did(or didn't do) in the draft last year. Taking tanner lee seems like a complete wasted pick now(and I was not on board with it at the time). We had the opportunity to take Rudolph in the third iirc and passed on him for someone that I don't think anyone had on their draft boards around here a round later. Not to mention all the FA qb's that traded hands last offseason, it really seems like we missed a opportunity of a very deep QB offseason and came out of it with someone who didn't cut it in Cleveland(Cody) and someone who would probably struggle to make the practice squad on most other teams(Lee). AND to top it all off we extended a guy into a contract that has made it nearly impossible to trade him and will ultimately be a cap hit whether he remains on the roster or not. I think the reason we didn't bring in more competition was largely to ensure the qb we have that we are riding with him which IMO massive mistake that has ultimately set this franchise back at least a year if not more.
But like I said, at the time of most of his moves, I have been on board with what DC has been doing. Whether the moves panned out or not is a different story.
It's pretty clear Caldwell deserves to go as much as Bortles. Those two ahead of anyone.
Otherwise, we're looking at continuity.
Continuity of nothing changing very much.
We swung for the fences and struck out, just like after 1999.
As much as we don't want to admit it, it is rebuild time with the long term in mind. There is no short term fix or "win." That window has already shut.
Can we be successful during the rebuild? Yes. JDR showed us that.
But it's not going to be a simple tweak.
No way he should be fired. He took us from dumpster fire to contender.
(12-27-2018, 01:43 AM)Dimson Wrote: [ -> ]No way he should be fired. He took us from dumpster fire to contender.
![[Image: 200.gif]](https://i.giphy.com/media/wWue0rCDOphOE/200.gif)
(12-27-2018, 12:48 AM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]It's pretty clear Caldwell deserves to go as much as Bortles. Those two ahead of anyone.
Otherwise, we're looking at continuity.
Continuity of nothing changing very much.
We swung for the fences and struck out, just like after 1999.
As much as we don't want to admit it, it is rebuild time with the long term in mind. There is no short term fix or "win." That window has already shut.
Can we be successful during the rebuild? Yes. JDR showed us that.
But it's not going to be a simple tweak.
You probably also believe Coughlin was the reason this team was just minutes away from the Super Bowl last season huh lol.
(12-27-2018, 12:48 AM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]It's pretty clear Caldwell deserves to go as much as Bortles. Those two ahead of anyone.
Otherwise, we're looking at continuity.
Continuity of nothing changing very much.
We swung for the fences and struck out, just like after 1999.
As much as we don't want to admit it, it is rebuild time with the long term in mind. There is no short term fix or "win." That window has already shut.
Can we be successful during the rebuild? Yes. JDR showed us that.
But it's not going to be a simple tweak.
You don't need to rebuild the team you have talent like we have. Rebuilding teams don't have young talent like Ramsey, Yannick, Jack, Dede etc. Linder, Bouye, Telvin all have played at a pro bowl level prior to this down year for everyone and are under the age of 28.
The biggest question mark is about this teams front office and coaching staff not the talent base.
The current front office got us into this situation with no QB and the same people are being tasked with getting us out of it. That could easily set us back 5 years.
(12-27-2018, 04:35 AM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ] (12-27-2018, 12:48 AM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]It's pretty clear Caldwell deserves to go as much as Bortles. Those two ahead of anyone.
Otherwise, we're looking at continuity.
Continuity of nothing changing very much.
We swung for the fences and struck out, just like after 1999.
As much as we don't want to admit it, it is rebuild time with the long term in mind. There is no short term fix or "win." That window has already shut.
Can we be successful during the rebuild? Yes. JDR showed us that.
But it's not going to be a simple tweak.
You don't need to rebuild the team you have talent like we have. Rebuilding teams don't have young talent like Ramsey, Yannick, Jack, Dede etc. Linder, Bouye, Telvin all have played at a pro bowl level prior to this down year for everyone and are under the age of 28.
The biggest question mark is about this teams front office and coaching staff not the talent base.
The current front office got us into this situation with no QB and the same people are being tasked with getting us out of it. That could easily set us back 5 years.
(emphasis added)
I agree completely with the portion in bold. Harrison also played well for us, and whether you think he is a legit LT or should be moved to RT, Robinson can be a contributor for us for a while. I also think Fournette can still be a good player for us if he can get a healthy OL in front of him, and stop getting suspended. Norwell started playing better before he got hurt. Lots of talent here. Get them healthy and get them a QB and this team is back in contention.
As far as the italicized portion, switching GMs and coaches can also set us back five years. If, for example, we get guys that want us to run a 3-4, immediately Calais Campbell, Marcell Dareus, Telvin Smith and Myles Jack all become less effective if not completely obsolete. Besides, who knows if the new guys can pick a QB? While it is possible Caldwell has a blind spot for QBs, it's entirely possible he could get it right this time. If you count Fowler as a miss, how would you explain Ngakoue?