Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a...tions-2018

interesting read

its vey funny how hes even beloew bortles espassiley playing behind a strong o-line these last 2 years. thats very interesting.

I’ll give Foles the benefit of the doubt considering he was quarterbacking for a team that was molded for someone else. Sometimes numbers get in their own way.

I'm not convinced it tells you much other than style of play, Most of the QBs on the list do a lot of short passes or were in pretty bad offenses that required them to take whatever was there.

Just adds more context to what his 2018 actually was as a QB

(04-05-2019, 08:03 AM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not convinced it tells you much other than style of play, Most of the QBs on the list do a lot of short passes or were in pretty bad offenses that required them to take whatever was there.

Just adds more context to what his 2018 actually was as a QB

Your pick in the mock

(04-05-2019, 08:15 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-05-2019, 08:03 AM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not convinced it tells you much other than style of play, Most of the QBs on the list do a lot of short passes or were in pretty bad offenses that required them to take whatever was there.

Just adds more context to what his 2018 actually was as a QB

Your pick in the mock

Cheers

(04-05-2019, 07:14 AM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a...tions-2018

interesting read

This is disturbing. It appears we traded in our Edsel for a Gremlin. That's not a surprise given the Jags poor record of evaluating QBs in the past ten or more years.

I hope Foles proves this wrong.

(04-05-2019, 09:06 AM)MalabarJag Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-05-2019, 07:14 AM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a...tions-2018

interesting read

This is disturbing. It appears we traded in our Edsel for a Gremlin. That's not a surprise given the Jags poor record of evaluating QBs in the past ten or more years.

I hope Foles proves this wrong.

That percentage can be altered readily by the use of play action pass on first and second down when the run game is clicking. 

If the Jags can make that happen, I'm not concerned about this somewhat misleading "stat." 

For instance they are lumping the more important third down "failed completions" in with the others and not accounting for drive ending failed conversions or otherwise. 
Do we really give a [BLEEP] about a "failed" second down completion if the third down moved the chains? 
I don't. Same applies to the first down stat. 

Philly in 2018 was in the middle of the pack in third down conversions (#12 league-wide.)
41% conversion rate on 3rd down. 

I'm not going to weigh this very heavily until we get a look at DeFilippos's playbook and calling for a few weeks in September. 
If they are overusing too many passes behind the L.O.S. by week 3 or 4, then this topic may be a legit issue.

(04-05-2019, 08:03 AM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not convinced it tells you much other than style of play, Most of the QBs on the list do a lot of short passes or were in pretty bad offenses that required them to take whatever was there.

Just adds more context to what his 2018 actually was as a QB

Pretty much agree, this shows mostly style of play and not much else.

The article points it out at some point but it's pretty obvious one would prefer to have a "failed completion" over a sack, an incomplete pass, an INT or a scramble for minimal gain. Especially when your team is winning pretty much all the games you needed to win to get back in playoff contention.

Ask the Eagles fans if his tenure there was one of "failed completions" or of a championship won after nearly 60 years of waiting.

#anyonebutblake SMH

(04-05-2019, 10:20 AM)JAGFAN88 Wrote: [ -> ]#anyonebutblake  SMH

Still holding on.  Admirable.

(04-05-2019, 10:20 AM)JAGFAN88 Wrote: [ -> ]#anyonebutblake  SMH

Hahahahaha

Have you bought your Bortles Rams jersey yet?

Give it up dude. MOVE ON.

This is what i already have been saying and what makes me nervous. In a passing offense with better receivers and blocking the numbers dont look that great. Bortles shouldnt even be in this discussion since we all know we rarely threw the ball unless it was forced bad down and distance or because the last few drives were atrocities running. Any numbers that have him below Blake are just points to collect for later on.

In a passing league, I'm almost certain foles will do better than Blake, especially if we actually start passing the ball which some fans have been complaining about for years now. Blake would've looked better with more passes mixed in for 2nd and 3rd, instead of mostly bad down and distance. No more excuses putting the QB at fault for the horrid playcalling. WE BETTER PASS THIS YEAR PERIOD. If foles is meh oh well. told u so

(04-05-2019, 07:25 AM)snowwolf776 Wrote: [ -> ]its vey funny how hes even beloew bortles espassiley playing behind a strong o-line these last 2 years.  thats very interesting.

That is spectacular spelling, even by your standards Wolfie!

This is a list that has Winston #2, Bortles almost cracking the top-10, and it has Trubisky, Mayfield, Watson, Wilson, and Prescott in the twenties.

If I read this correctly, many of Brees's best seasons would have put him in the mid-to-late twenties when considering his failed completion percentage.

Isn't it simpler to only consider completion percentage and YPA? Why must we create some arbitrary system to further complicate it?

(04-05-2019, 11:52 AM)JagsFansince1995 Wrote: [ -> ]This is what i already have been saying and what makes me nervous.  In a passing offense with better receivers and blocking the numbers dont look that great.  Bortles shouldnt even be in this discussion since we all know we rarely threw the ball unless it was forced bad down and distance or because the last few drives were atrocities running.  Any numbers that have him below Blake are just points to collect for later on.  

In a passing league, I'm almost certain foles will do better than Blake, especially if we actually start passing the ball which some fans have been complaining about for years now. Blake would've looked better with more passes mixed in for 2nd and 3rd, instead of mostly bad down and distance.  No more excuses putting the QB at fault for the horrid playcalling.  WE BETTER PASS THIS YEAR PERIOD.  If foles is meh oh well. told u so

If we're passing, we're losing.

In all reality, getting Foles was like having the #1 draft pick to go along with #6. Sure, he may not pan out but then again no draft pick is a sure thing.

There are a lot of potential holes in this analysis. For starters, 3rd and 4th down failed completions are far worse than 1st and 2nd down because it ends your drive. They should really have two columns, one for 3rd/4th down score, and then next to it the total combined score for all downs so you can see how the rankings vary. Or if you only have the one total combined score, you need to weight it more heavily for the 3rd and 4th down failures. In addition, when looking at the 3rd/4th down failed completion, you'd also want to pair that up with total conversion rate on 3rd/4th down passes. A 0% failed completion score on 3rd down may be "perfection" but if you are only converting 10% of your 3rd downs, it becomes less meaningful. Anyone can have a 0% failed completion score if they chuck the ball 50 yards down field every 3rd down.

The next obvious hole is a failed completion is better than an incompletion. Would you rather have 2nd and 6 or 2nd and 10? When Fournette tip toes to the line and gets stuffed for no yards on first down, after second down would you rather be 3rd and 5 or 3rd and 10? Obviously you'd take the failed completion over the incompletion. This chart would make you think it's a negative but it's better than the alternative. This would be a little more alarming if he had an average comp%, but he had the 2nd highest in the league this year.

The other potential hole is the design of the offense. An offense designed to throw down the field will always rate near the top of this list. A la Winston and Fitzpatrick being up there. But an offense based on west coast principals of quick timing passing attack and using dump off passes to act as your running game will most likely rank near the bottom.

We all know Foles' game is his ability to get the ball out quickly, low sack rate, low interception rate. Set up the offense designed to take advantage of that. Lull teams to sleep and then go over the top. Eagles clearly did so with success. So can we. The ironic thing is all we hear about is that we dont have the playmakers the Eagles have. This analysis would suggest playmakers are slightly less relevant if your game is one that stays close to the line of scrimmage. Especially from the WR point of view.

(04-05-2019, 12:41 PM)JagNGeorgia Wrote: [ -> ]This is a list that has Winston #2,  Bortles almost cracking the top-10, and it has Trubisky, Mayfield, Watson, Wilson, and Prescott in the twenties.

If I read this correctly, many of Brees's best seasons would have put him in the mid-to-late twenties when considering his failed completion percentage.

Isn't it simpler to only consider completion percentage and YPA? Why must we create some arbitrary system to further complicate it?

Don't pay attention to any of that nonsense. This particular stat fits the foles isn't very good narrative so that is were we need to focus our attention.