Firstly, this season has been very enjoyable so far. Where does it go from here? Right now I think you could make a reasonable argument for a wide range of possibilites. At 4-4, having beaten 4 pretty bad teams and lost to 4 pretty good teams, it's fair to say we are a middle of the pack team and will probably end up with a record around .500. I think the smart money would be on that.
However, for those feeling optimistic, you could make a convincing argument that the Jags could get to 10-6 and have a legitimate chance at making the playoffs with some momentum behind them: the games we have lost have been close, whereas we've won by at least double digits in three of our Ws. We have some young playmakers who are really playing at a high-level, and a favorable schedule from here on out. Clean up a few sloppy areas (penalties, red zone offense), and suddenly we could go toe-to-toe with anyone. The team has question marks, but no massive weak areas. Why not?
On the flip side, those of a more negative persuasion could argue this team is flattering to deceive and the second half will be another disappointment, the type of which we are all so used to around here. The wins against the Bengals and Jets, two of the absolute worst teams in the league, have shown multiple flaws that would be exposed against any decent opposition. With injuries starting to take a toll, and penalties still an issue, it's not too dificult to see us getting handled when we play our divisional opponents who are also building momentum. While the schedule isn't horrible, there aren't any teams on there that are close to being as bad as the two we have just faced. 6-10? It's possible.
Which camp are you in?
In my mind, however the season ends up, it has been very enjoyable so far purely for the fact that we are starting to see the core of a long-term team capable of challenging week in week out. Obviously, that starts with the frankly ridiculous, incredible, unbelievable fact that we seem to have found an absolute stud of a QB in the 6th round of the draft. That changes everything. Whether you are 100% Minshew Mania, or you have a few doubts, you simply can't deny that what he has done so far has been exceptional, both statistically and from the eye test. If this guy had been a high first-rounder everybody would have declared him to be the next great one already. It's undoubtedly prudent to be a little more judicial than that and give him more time before making hard and fast predictions, but hey, it sure appears we have a QB.
The optimism for the long term prospects do go beyond just Minshew though. If you look at the core areas of a team, we have a number of young guys who look like they could be long term cornerstones. First of all, the trenches (most important after QB in my opinion): we have 2 stud pass-rushers (pay Yan, pay him now), plus multiple other young d-line players who are showing signs of becoming big contributors (Bryan, Smoot). The o-line is admittedly a bit foggier to project, but being led by two highly drafted young tackles is a pretty good place to start. We have a young star at WR who looks like the kind of player who can make things out of nothing. We have a young RB who is showing he can be a true workhorse. And we have a bunch of other young players who look like playmakers on both sides of the ball, Westbrook, Harrison, Jack...
My point is, we have a really strong core of young players on this team who could make us a good team for a LONG time, and the draft capital to add to it too. What I find most remarkable about this is that, since 2017 it has generally been assumed and accepted around here that this team had a small window in which we needed to make a team that could challenge to win it all as soon as possible. Whereas, in reality, that 2017 team has been largely dismantled and rebuilt. Whether this was by design or luck, or a bit of both, I'm not entirely sure. It's fascinating really, we all assumed the team was in win-now mode, and most of the big roster moves have seemed to support that, but somehow they've actually managed to rebuild a roster in a short period of time.
Sorry for the longest post ever.
TLDR: Short term: could go either way.
Long term: looking good baby.
I agree we should finish around .500 with the schedule we have. I think the Colts are going to wrap up the division fairly easily, but I think the Texans are about to fall off the map with a very difficult schedule combined with this brutal injury stretch they've had. None of the rest of the AFC is all that imposing, we could sneak into the playoffs.
Looking at the schedule, I see a 9-7 record and considering all we went through so far this season, that would be satisfying. I'm not expecting the playoffs this season, but I see no reason why we can't reach them in 2020 with the good, young core of players we have. We still have some major holes to fill though. TE has to be a priority for us in the offseason. It just has to. I would also like to find a versatile NT type to replace Dareus, who will almost certainly be gone considering his $20 million 2020 cap number. O-Line has to be a priority as well. I would love to find a true LT and move Robinson inside to LG while releasing Norwell, but a more likely scenario, will be us looking to add a player or two on the offensive interior. I'd also like a true cover corner as well. Tre Herndon is developing pretty nicely, but I don't know if he will ever turn into half the cover guy Ramsey was. With that said, if one of the top cover corners in the draft falls into our laps (Okudah, Fulton or Adebo), that would be nice. You never know how the first round of the draft will play out. I would focus on these areas in the first couple rounds of the draft and free agency. In the rest of the draft/free agency we could address linebacker depth, Safety depth, WR depth and RB depth. The future is bright.
I haven't commented at all on Minshew before now. My thoughts are I am waiting for the bottom to fall out. I don't mean that like I hope it falls out, but lets be honest he was a 6th round pick that many didn't even think would make the team. Now he's playing incredible...what happened? Has this just been a fluke? God I hope not maybe I am worried that if I get 100% on the train I will jinx him lol. I will say that should Minshew just fall flat I felt like Foles was playing well before he got hurt. As far as Fournette I don't know I feel like he's average. I understand the stats and I understand how he's playing now but he's no MJD or Fred Taylor. Maybe it's not fair for me to compare him to MJD but I just am eh on him. The defense? I was actually surprised to read that our defense was middle of the pack, I thought our defense was playing pretty good. As far as our team as a whole, I know that KC game wasn't considered "close" but to me it was close had they called that horse collar call when Fournette fumbled who knows what would've happened. The saints are a pretty good team, I think they are like 7-1, we barely lost to the Texans and the Panthers are also a decent team. All of those games we were in them. The teams we beat we beat like we were supposed to. I really think 12-4 is a possibility but unlikely simply because that would mean we'd have to win 8 more in a row. I don't know now that I have commented we are probably going to go 4-12..sorry lol
(10-27-2019, 11:17 PM)JagJohn Wrote: [ -> ]Firstly, this season has been very enjoyable so far. Where does it go from here? Right now I think you could make a reasonable argument for a wide range of possibilites. At 4-4, having beaten 4 pretty bad teams and lost to 4 pretty good teams, it's fair to say we are a middle of the pack team and will probably end up with a record around .500. I think the smart money would be on that.
However, for those feeling optimistic, you could make a convincing argument that the Jags could get to 10-6 and have a legitimate chance at making the playoffs with some momentum behind them: the games we have lost have been close, whereas we've won by at least double digits in three of our Ws. We have some young playmakers who are really playing at a high-level, and a favorable schedule from here on out. Clean up a few sloppy areas (penalties, red zone offense), and suddenly we could go toe-to-toe with anyone. The team has question marks, but no massive weak areas. Why not?
On the flip side, those of a more negative persuasion could argue this team is flattering to deceive and the second half will be another disappointment, the type of which we are all so used to around here. The wins against the Bengals and Jets, two of the absolute worst teams in the league, have shown multiple flaws that would be exposed against any decent opposition. With injuries starting to take a toll, and penalties still an issue, it's not too dificult to see us getting handled when we play our divisional opponents who are also building momentum. While the schedule isn't horrible, there aren't any teams on there that are close to being as bad as the two we have just faced. 6-10? It's possible.
Which camp are you in?
In my mind, however the season ends up, it has been very enjoyable so far purely for the fact that we are starting to see the core of a long-term team capable of challenging week in week out. Obviously, that starts with the frankly ridiculous, incredible, unbelievable fact that we seem to have found an absolute stud of a QB in the 6th round of the draft. That changes everything. Whether you are 100% Minshew Mania, or you have a few doubts, you simply can't deny that what he has done so far has been exceptional, both statistically and from the eye test. If this guy had been a high first-rounder everybody would have declared him to be the next great one already. It's undoubtedly prudent to be a little more judicial than that and give him more time before making hard and fast predictions, but hey, it sure appears we have a QB.
The optimism for the long term prospects do go beyond just Minshew though. If you look at the core areas of a team, we have a number of young guys who look like they could be long term cornerstones. First of all, the trenches (most important after QB in my opinion): we have 2 stud pass-rushers (pay Yan, pay him now), plus multiple other young d-line players who are showing signs of becoming big contributors (Bryan, Smoot). The o-line is admittedly a bit foggier to project, but being led by two highly drafted young tackles is a pretty good place to start. We have a young star at WR who looks like the kind of player who can make things out of nothing. We have a young RB who is showing he can be a true workhorse. And we have a bunch of other young players who look like playmakers on both sides of the ball, Westbrook, Harrison, Jack...
My point is, we have a really strong core of young players on this team who could make us a good team for a LONG time, and the draft capital to add to it too. What I find most remarkable about this is that, since 2017 it has generally been assumed and accepted around here that this team had a small window in which we needed to make a team that could challenge to win it all as soon as possible. Whereas, in reality, that 2017 team has been largely dismantled and rebuilt. Whether this was by design or luck, or a bit of both, I'm not entirely sure. It's fascinating really, we all assumed the team was in win-now mode, and most of the big roster moves have seemed to support that, but somehow they've actually managed to rebuild a roster in a short period of time.
Sorry for the longest post ever.
TLDR: Short term: could go either way.
Long term: looking good baby.
Outstanding post that sums up exactly how I feel.
I think we're an 8-8 team, but nonetheless this has been one of the most enjoyable seasons in a long time.
But to think a little more long term- having a franchise QB on a 6th round contract for at least 2 more years gives us all kinds of cap flexibility. So we can be fairly aggressive in free agency filling holes. And assuming we manage to fill some holes in free agency, that allows us to use all those extra 1st round picks for best player available, and as everyone knows, players on rookie contracts are cheap compared to veteran free agents.
Basically, if we decide to go long term with Minshew, that allows us to fill the team with a lot of new talent.
(10-28-2019, 12:32 AM)AlsJagsFan Wrote: [ -> ]I haven't commented at all on Minshew before now. My thoughts are I am waiting for the bottom to fall out. I don't mean that like I hope it falls out, but lets be honest he was a 6th round pick that many didn't even think would make the team. Now he's playing incredible...what happened? Has this just been a fluke? God I hope not maybe I am worried that if I get 100% on the train I will jinx him lol. I will say that should Minshew just fall flat I felt like Foles was playing well before he got hurt. As far as Fournette I don't know I feel like he's average. I understand the stats and I understand how he's playing now but he's no MJD or Fred Taylor. Maybe it's not fair for me to compare him to MJD but I just am eh on him. The defense? I was actually surprised to read that our defense was middle of the pack, I thought our defense was playing pretty good. As far as our team as a whole, I know that KC game wasn't considered "close" but to me it was close had they called that horse collar call when Fournette fumbled who knows what would've happened. The saints are a pretty good team, I think they are like 7-1, we barely lost to the Texans and the Panthers are also a decent team. All of those games we were in them. The teams we beat we beat like we were supposed to. I really think 12-4 is a possibility but unlikely simply because that would mean we'd have to win 8 more in a row. I don't know now that I have commented we are probably going to go 4-12..sorry lol
With Minshew, I think it's a demonstration of how much of a crap shoot the draft is. Everyone drafted has some level of potential, that's why they get drafted in the first place. But talent evaluators sometimes get lost in the measureables and forget the actual results of what a player did in college or downplay the results because of the conference a guy plays in. Anyway, I'm glad we've got two pretty good QBs on the roster.
(10-28-2019, 06:25 AM)hb1148 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-28-2019, 12:32 AM)AlsJagsFan Wrote: [ -> ]I haven't commented at all on Minshew before now. My thoughts are I am waiting for the bottom to fall out. I don't mean that like I hope it falls out, but lets be honest he was a 6th round pick that many didn't even think would make the team. Now he's playing incredible...what happened? Has this just been a fluke? God I hope not maybe I am worried that if I get 100% on the train I will jinx him lol. I will say that should Minshew just fall flat I felt like Foles was playing well before he got hurt. As far as Fournette I don't know I feel like he's average. I understand the stats and I understand how he's playing now but he's no MJD or Fred Taylor. Maybe it's not fair for me to compare him to MJD but I just am eh on him. The defense? I was actually surprised to read that our defense was middle of the pack, I thought our defense was playing pretty good. As far as our team as a whole, I know that KC game wasn't considered "close" but to me it was close had they called that horse collar call when Fournette fumbled who knows what would've happened. The saints are a pretty good team, I think they are like 7-1, we barely lost to the Texans and the Panthers are also a decent team. All of those games we were in them. The teams we beat we beat like we were supposed to. I really think 12-4 is a possibility but unlikely simply because that would mean we'd have to win 8 more in a row. I don't know now that I have commented we are probably going to go 4-12..sorry lol
With Minshew, I think it's a demonstration of how much of a crap shoot the draft is. Everyone drafted has some level of potential, that's why they get drafted in the first place. But talent evaluators sometimes get lost in the measureables and forget the actual results of what a player did in college or downplay the results because of the conference a guy plays in. Anyway, I'm glad we've got two pretty good QBs on the roster.
The problem is, no college QB has ever had to decipher an NFL defense. An NFL QB has to see things and process information in a split second. But there's no way to evaluate a college QB's ability to do that. Hence the heavy emphasis on measurables, because the mental part is like you say, a crap shoot.
I think we'll be 1 - 1 against the Colts and Texans in the division, 2-0 against the Titans. The Colts have got two pretty easy games before they play us, but round out the year with the Saints, Panthers and us. Texans still have to play the Ravens, Patriots and Colts, with injuries mounting up as well as us this Sunday.
I see the Colts ending up 11-5, the Texans 9-7 and the Titans 5-11. I think we'll finish 10-6 dropping games to the Colts and Raiders (we don't win on the west coast) in weeks 15 and 17. I see us entering that Raider game on a 7 win streak and looking at the other divisions right now the Bills would appear to be the only other AFC team with a shot at a wilcard berth as the North and West only have one team with a winning record in each.
The good news for the Jaguars is they are in a position to have a shot at the playoffs. Need the ball to bounce their way of course but there is a shot. Every game remaining on the schedule is winnable.
(10-28-2019, 07:55 AM)Browntrouser Wrote: [ -> ]The good news for the Jaguars is they are in a position to have a shot at the playoffs. Need the ball to bounce their way of course but there is a shot. Every game remaining on the schedule is winnable.
That's nice, but the real good news is that the Jaguars are in a position to build a team around a very low priced franchise QB and extra first round draft picks.
Short term:
backdoor into a wildcard spot is conceivable
Long Term:
Some good young players to build on talent-wise:
Allen, Ngakoue, Minshew, Chark, Conley, Westbrook, J Taylor, Richardson, maybe Harrison...
Then consider the quality performances coming from players much of this board had foolishly written off:
Smoot, Taven Bryan, DJ Chark, Will Richardson, Tre Herndon, Jarrod Wilson
They'll need to use those extra picks wisely, but this team could reload nicely and provide strong competition for this division for several years IMO.
(10-28-2019, 06:36 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (10-28-2019, 06:25 AM)hb1148 Wrote: [ -> ]With Minshew, I think it's a demonstration of how much of a crap shoot the draft is. Everyone drafted has some level of potential, that's why they get drafted in the first place. But talent evaluators sometimes get lost in the measureables and forget the actual results of what a player did in college or downplay the results because of the conference a guy plays in. Anyway, I'm glad we've got two pretty good QBs on the roster.
The problem is, no college QB has ever had to decipher an NFL defense. An NFL QB has to see things and process information in a split second. But there's no way to evaluate a college QB's ability to do that. Hence the heavy emphasis on measurables, because the mental part is like you say, a crap shoot.
You can see it in his play. His "processing" is slightly slow but way ahead of the curve for a rookie QB. He is a tad late with his throws at times because of the processing but you can tell that he does see the field. QB drafting is a crap shoot for sure and that is definitely why there are piles and heaps of failed draft picks at the position.
Sometimes you have to get lucky as a franchise and this could be our lottery ticket. QBs on rookie contracts setup a really nice window for building a team. And then if that QB works hard, you crack in to the top half of the league and have the ability to survive some missteps. I'm excited and barring a complete melt down, I'm not looking at the win column this year because we are seeing good tidings.
(10-28-2019, 06:25 AM)hb1148 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-28-2019, 12:32 AM)AlsJagsFan Wrote: [ -> ]I haven't commented at all on Minshew before now. My thoughts are I am waiting for the bottom to fall out. I don't mean that like I hope it falls out, but lets be honest he was a 6th round pick that many didn't even think would make the team. Now he's playing incredible...what happened? Has this just been a fluke? God I hope not maybe I am worried that if I get 100% on the train I will jinx him lol. I will say that should Minshew just fall flat I felt like Foles was playing well before he got hurt. As far as Fournette I don't know I feel like he's average. I understand the stats and I understand how he's playing now but he's no MJD or Fred Taylor. Maybe it's not fair for me to compare him to MJD but I just am eh on him. The defense? I was actually surprised to read that our defense was middle of the pack, I thought our defense was playing pretty good. As far as our team as a whole, I know that KC game wasn't considered "close" but to me it was close had they called that horse collar call when Fournette fumbled who knows what would've happened. The saints are a pretty good team, I think they are like 7-1, we barely lost to the Texans and the Panthers are also a decent team. All of those games we were in them. The teams we beat we beat like we were supposed to. I really think 12-4 is a possibility but unlikely simply because that would mean we'd have to win 8 more in a row. I don't know now that I have commented we are probably going to go 4-12..sorry lol
With Minshew, I think it's a demonstration of how much of a crap shoot the draft is. Everyone drafted has some level of potential, that's why they get drafted in the first place. But talent evaluators sometimes get lost in the measureables and forget the actual results of what a player did in college or downplay the results because of the conference a guy plays in. Anyway, I'm glad we've got two pretty good QBs on the roster.
I honestly think there has been a huge bias against certain systems in college football such as the run and shoot, air raid and the spread. For years, QB's in these systems were overlooked, because, they were too foreign to the NFL and it was believed that QB's in these systems could not function outside of the scheme that they had played in. Nowadays, teams are starting to realize that college QB's can learn other schemes and in some cases NFL teams are even adapting their own offenses to adjust to their rookie QB's skill set. We are seeing players like Pat Mahomes, Jared Goff, Gardner Minshew and Mason Rudolph find success in the NFL despite their "gimmicky" offensive backgrounds. Ultimately as pro style college systems are disappearing, the NFL has been forced to look into different offensive systems to find their franchise QB's. It is through this research, that the NFL has discovered, alas, there are some really good QB prospects out there who might have not been give a fair chance 10 years ago, because of scheme biases by NFL front offices.
(10-28-2019, 08:21 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]Short term:
backdoor into a wildcard spot is conceivable
Long Term:
Some good young players to build on talent-wise:
Allen, Ngakoue, Minshew, Chark, Conley, Westbrook, J Taylor, Richardson, maybe Harrison...
Then consider the quality performances coming from players much of this board had foolishly written off:
Smoot, Taven Bryan, DJ Chark, Will Richardson, Tre Herndon, Jarrod Wilson
They'll need to use those extra picks wisely, but this team could reload nicely and provide strong competition for this division for several years IMO.
It is remarkable how much these guys have changed the narrative about themselves in half a season. Their emergence has to go down as a big argument for keeping the FO (or at least part of it) in place long term.
This team is an 8-8 team. 10th in offense, 12th in defense, some hefty problems on both sides of the ball. I could totally see us sneak into the playoffs, but its very unlikely. The AFCS is a hella tough division at the moment.
What's great about being an 8-8 team right now, though? WE HAVE A FANTASTIC ROOKIE QB AND 4 FIRST ROUND PICKS IN TWO YEARS.
Boys, were going to be one hell of a team the next decade.
(10-28-2019, 08:21 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]Short term:
backdoor into a wildcard spot is conceivable
Long Term:
Some good young players to build on talent-wise:
Allen, Ngakoue, Minshew, Chark, Conley, Westbrook, J Taylor, Richardson, maybe Harrison...
Then consider the quality performances coming from players much of this board had foolishly written off:
Smoot, Taven Bryan, DJ Chark, Will Richardson, Tre Herndon, Jarrod Wilson
They'll need to use those extra picks wisely, but this team could reload nicely and provide strong competition for this division for several years IMO.
Our staff is starting to look pretty good with player development.
(10-28-2019, 02:40 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ] (10-28-2019, 08:21 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]Short term:
backdoor into a wildcard spot is conceivable
Long Term:
Some good young players to build on talent-wise:
Allen, Ngakoue, Minshew, Chark, Conley, Westbrook, J Taylor, Richardson, maybe Harrison...
Then consider the quality performances coming from players much of this board had foolishly written off:
Smoot, Taven Bryan, DJ Chark, Will Richardson, Tre Herndon, Jarrod Wilson
They'll need to use those extra picks wisely, but this team could reload nicely and provide strong competition for this division for several years IMO.
Our staff is starting to look pretty good with player development.
We don't have to fire everybody?
(10-28-2019, 02:47 PM)Rico Wrote: [ -> ] (10-28-2019, 02:40 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ]Our staff is starting to look pretty good with player development.
We don't have to fire everybody?
Not this week
(10-28-2019, 09:52 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ] (10-28-2019, 06:25 AM)hb1148 Wrote: [ -> ]With Minshew, I think it's a demonstration of how much of a crap shoot the draft is. Everyone drafted has some level of potential, that's why they get drafted in the first place. But talent evaluators sometimes get lost in the measureables and forget the actual results of what a player did in college or downplay the results because of the conference a guy plays in. Anyway, I'm glad we've got two pretty good QBs on the roster.
I honestly think there has been a huge bias against certain systems in college football such as the run and shoot, air raid and the spread. For years, QB's in these systems were overlooked, because, they were too foreign to the NFL and it was believed that QB's in these systems could not function outside of the scheme that they had played in. Nowadays, teams are starting to realize that college QB's can learn other schemes and in some cases NFL teams are even adapting their own offenses to adjust to their rookie QB's skill set. We are seeing players like Pat Mahomes, Jared Goff, Gardner Minshew and Mason Rudolph find success in the NFL despite their "gimmicky" offensive backgrounds. Ultimately as pro style college systems are disappearing, the NFL has been forced to look into different offensive systems to find their franchise QB's. It is through this research, that the NFL has discovered, alas, there are some really good QB prospects out there who might have not been give a fair chance 10 years ago, because of scheme biases by NFL front offices.
I'd also suggest that the NFL rules have been altered enough to favor "gimmicky" QBs. By protecting QBs and WRs, and favoring regulations that open the passing game, the NFL has created a larger (or maybe different) pool of QBs that can find success in an NFL system.
(10-28-2019, 03:04 PM)Last42min Wrote: [ -> ] (10-28-2019, 09:52 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]I honestly think there has been a huge bias against certain systems in college football such as the run and shoot, air raid and the spread. For years, QB's in these systems were overlooked, because, they were too foreign to the NFL and it was believed that QB's in these systems could not function outside of the scheme that they had played in. Nowadays, teams are starting to realize that college QB's can learn other schemes and in some cases NFL teams are even adapting their own offenses to adjust to their rookie QB's skill set. We are seeing players like Pat Mahomes, Jared Goff, Gardner Minshew and Mason Rudolph find success in the NFL despite their "gimmicky" offensive backgrounds. Ultimately as pro style college systems are disappearing, the NFL has been forced to look into different offensive systems to find their franchise QB's. It is through this research, that the NFL has discovered, alas, there are some really good QB prospects out there who might have not been give a fair chance 10 years ago, because of scheme biases by NFL front offices.
I'd also suggest that the NFL rules have been altered enough to favor "gimmicky" QBs. By protecting QBs and WRs, and favoring regulations that open the passing game, the NFL has created a larger (or maybe different) pool of QBs that can find success in an NFL system.
I talked about this a lot in the offseason, especially when discussing Kyler Murray. The traditional NFL "prototype QB" - 6'5, tough as nails, massive arm, thick frame to absorb punishment - is now more or less an outdated idea, even if many people in the NFL are slow to accept the fact.
QBs should be evaluated on
their ability to throw the ball, which sounds like the strangest and most obvious thing you could ever say... but too many times it's not the case. Seems like scouts and pundits still get too caught up looking at school, competition level, height, weight, stats, etc, and get blinded to actual talent in throwing the ball. How was Trubisky drafted ahead of Mahomes?