(03-20-2020, 04:25 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ] (03-20-2020, 03:55 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ]That's kind of the point. "If we aren't at the bottom right now we are close" is a definitive statement is it not?
I suppose if you keep stating we're at the bottom every few days eventually you'll be right.
I don't recall ever saying anything about being near a bottom until about a week or so ago. I haven't been "essentially saying the same thing for a month". I also refused to give a number or a date for the bottom because it really is impossible to predict, especially given the circumstances at the time.
Sure my statement is definitive, but as I said before... it's just my opinion. Take it or leave it. It really doesn't matter to me. I have stated numerous times that I am not a professional and to take my opinion/advice for what it is. I have been trading/investing for over 20 years and have done very well. Have I done the best? Of course not. Was this the best time to buy into Micro$oft? Time will tell. The indicators that I follow all point to the fall slowing and I suspect the turnaround will happen soon.
Lol you haven't?
I quoted a post above in which you said "I suspect a turn-around after a few days." on 2/24. Is that not essentially saying we are at/near the bottom and the market will recover in a few days? Or does it have to contain the exact same phrase of words to count in your mind?
Here's some more:
"The major drop that we have seen over the last 2 days was pretty much needed and should reach the bottom soon." 2/25
"I wouldn't call it a "rally" or "recovery" just yet, but getting back in is probably a good move right now." 3/02 and hopefully no one listened.
"In my opinion it's still a good buying opportunity as I think we are very close to the bottom of this sell-off." 3/03 DJIA @ 25.9k but very close as per you. At least you stated that one as opinion.
"When the market does find it's bottom (which I think is close)..." 3/09 DJIA @23.8k but again, good on you for at least phrasing it as opinion.
Like I said, keep calling it and eventually you'll be right.
(03-20-2020, 10:34 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ] (03-20-2020, 04:25 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]I don't recall ever saying anything about being near a bottom until about a week or so ago. I haven't been "essentially saying the same thing for a month". I also refused to give a number or a date for the bottom because it really is impossible to predict, especially given the circumstances at the time.
Sure my statement is definitive, but as I said before... it's just my opinion. Take it or leave it. It really doesn't matter to me. I have stated numerous times that I am not a professional and to take my opinion/advice for what it is. I have been trading/investing for over 20 years and have done very well. Have I done the best? Of course not. Was this the best time to buy into Micro$oft? Time will tell. The indicators that I follow all point to the fall slowing and I suspect the turnaround will happen soon.
Lol you haven't?
I quoted a post above in which you said "I suspect a turn-around after a few days." on 2/24. Is that not essentially saying we are at/near the bottom and the market will recover in a few days? Or does it have to contain the exact same phrase of words to count in your mind?
Here's some more:
"The major drop that we have seen over the last 2 days was pretty much needed and should reach the bottom soon." 2/25
"I wouldn't call it a "rally" or "recovery" just yet, but getting back in is probably a good move right now." 3/02 and hopefully no one listened.
"In my opinion it's still a good buying opportunity as I think we are very close to the bottom of this sell-off." 3/03 DJIA @ 25.9k but very close as per you. At least you stated that one as opinion.
"When the market does find it's bottom (which I think is close)..." 3/09 DJIA @23.8k but again, good on you for at least phrasing it as opinion.
Like I said, keep calling it and eventually you'll be right.
LOL .... this reminds we of Jim Cramer on Mad Money.
2 weeks ago, you need to be in it for the long term. people are overracting
1 week ago, we're near the bottom and we should see a V shaped recovery
1 day ago, as I been saying, we cannot predict the bottom until the virus is contained.
(03-20-2020, 03:30 PM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ]I don't expect a market turnaround until we see a virus turnaround. There are some hopeful signs, like possibly finding an effective treatment regimen, but the economic pain will continue until people get back to work and even then it will take time.
Other cracks in the financial system are widening, especially with regards to liquidity. I have an anecdotal item from another forum where a guy sold a stock in his Schwab 401k account and wanted to buy another stock, but Schwab kept 67% of his sale proceeds as "Cash on Hold" whatever that means. He is assuming they will release the remainder in 3 days when the trade settles. Anybody else seeing their broker hold funds like that?
When I got rid of my margin 5 years ago, the Schwab broker talked to me like I was crazy. Not so much now. No bail in for me.
It takes 3 days for funds to actually settle, if they settle before that it’s on margin.
Bottom: 12000
Date: Late August/ early September
Year end: 14000
(03-30-2020, 08:06 PM)JaG4LyFe Wrote: [ -> ]Bottom: 12000
Date: Late August/ early September
Year end: 14000
Can you provide the Suicide Prevention Hotline in your predication --- I may need it if it comes to fruition.
(03-20-2020, 10:34 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ] (03-20-2020, 04:25 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]I don't recall ever saying anything about being near a bottom until about a week or so ago. I haven't been "essentially saying the same thing for a month". I also refused to give a number or a date for the bottom because it really is impossible to predict, especially given the circumstances at the time.
Sure my statement is definitive, but as I said before... it's just my opinion. Take it or leave it. It really doesn't matter to me. I have stated numerous times that I am not a professional and to take my opinion/advice for what it is. I have been trading/investing for over 20 years and have done very well. Have I done the best? Of course not. Was this the best time to buy into Micro$oft? Time will tell. The indicators that I follow all point to the fall slowing and I suspect the turnaround will happen soon.
Lol you haven't?
I quoted a post above in which you said "I suspect a turn-around after a few days." on 2/24. Is that not essentially saying we are at/near the bottom and the market will recover in a few days? Or does it have to contain the exact same phrase of words to count in your mind?
Here's some more:
"The major drop that we have seen over the last 2 days was pretty much needed and should reach the bottom soon." 2/25
"I wouldn't call it a "rally" or "recovery" just yet, but getting back in is probably a good move right now." 3/02 and hopefully no one listened.
"In my opinion it's still a good buying opportunity as I think we are very close to the bottom of this sell-off." 3/03 DJIA @ 25.9k but very close as per you. At least you stated that one as opinion.
"When the market does find it's bottom (which I think is close)..." 3/09 DJIA @23.8k but again, good on you for at least phrasing it as opinion.
Like I said, keep calling it and eventually you'll be right.
Man... you really got him Fantastico. Way to make someone claiming to be a non-professional trader look like a non-professional.
(03-31-2020, 05:10 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-20-2020, 10:34 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ]Lol you haven't?
I quoted a post above in which you said "I suspect a turn-around after a few days." on 2/24. Is that not essentially saying we are at/near the bottom and the market will recover in a few days? Or does it have to contain the exact same phrase of words to count in your mind?
Here's some more:
"The major drop that we have seen over the last 2 days was pretty much needed and should reach the bottom soon." 2/25
"I wouldn't call it a "rally" or "recovery" just yet, but getting back in is probably a good move right now." 3/02 and hopefully no one listened.
"In my opinion it's still a good buying opportunity as I think we are very close to the bottom of this sell-off." 3/03 DJIA @ 25.9k but very close as per you. At least you stated that one as opinion.
"When the market does find it's bottom (which I think is close)..." 3/09 DJIA @23.8k but again, good on you for at least phrasing it as opinion.
Like I said, keep calling it and eventually you'll be right.
Man... you really got him Fantastico. Way to make someone claiming to be a non-professional trader look like a non-professional.
Hahahaha. That's like saying you can't criticize someone's football takes here because we aren't professional football analyst.
If you post on the board you subject yourself to criticism of your postings. I'm sure JIB would agree with that and I'm also sure he can defend himself if he deems it necessary.
Nice try though.
(03-30-2020, 08:06 PM)JaG4LyFe Wrote: [ -> ]Bottom: 12000
Date: Late August/ early September
Year end: 14000
Unless there is another pandemic worse than COVID-19 on the horizon, no way.
Is there though? Please let me know right now.
(03-31-2020, 07:37 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-30-2020, 08:06 PM)JaG4LyFe Wrote: [ -> ]Bottom: 12000
Date: Late August/ early September
Year end: 14000
Unless there is another pandemic worse than COVID-19 on the horizon, no way.
Is there though? Please let me know right now.
The 2nd pandemic is the "economic collapse" pandemic, followed by the "empty shelves" pandemic, then the "9 meals from anarchy" pandemic, then the "3 weeks from cannibalism" pandemic.
So yeah, the Dow could go lower.
(03-31-2020, 08:52 AM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2020, 07:37 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]Unless there is another pandemic worse than COVID-19 on the horizon, no way.
Is there though? Please let me know right now.
The 2nd pandemic is the "economic collapse" pandemic, followed by the "empty shelves" pandemic, then the "9 meals from anarchy" pandemic, then the "3 weeks from cannibalism" pandemic.
So yeah, the Dow could go lower.
I'm surprised people don't see the possibility. A lot of people seem to think everything is just going to snap back to normal in a couple of months. That's impossible. Thousands upon thousands of small businesses are going to be wiped out, and lots of people will be unemployed for a long period of time, no matter what happens from here. Meanwhile, we are going to be left with 6 or more TRILLIONS of additional dollars in US government debt, and trillions of additional dollars in private debt. People will max out their credit cards to put the next meal on the table. Do people actually think this pandemic is going to be without cost beyond the lives lost??? There will be HUGE costs, and I don't think the stock market reflects that. Yet.
(03-20-2020, 02:46 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ] (03-20-2020, 02:24 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]I don't know that it's going to go much lower. While there is still quite a bit of volatility in the market we aren't seeing the huge wild swings one way or the other. If we aren't at the bottom right now we are close. Barring anything major happening over the weekend I would guess that we might see a bit of a move towards the upside next week. Just don't expect any major 1000 point swings upward.
You've been saying essentially the same thing for a month now. Maybe you can't predict the market.
Ehhhhhhhhh.... that's a little more on the arrogant @#$/ side than just saying, I disagree with your opinion, but I still think the markets over priced.
(03-31-2020, 05:30 AM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2020, 05:10 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]Man... you really got him Fantastico. Way to make someone claiming to be a non-professional trader look like a non-professional.
Hahahaha. That's like saying you can't criticize someone's football takes here because we aren't professional football analyst.
If you post on the board you subject yourself to criticism of your postings. I'm sure JIB would agree with that and I'm also sure he can defend himself if he deems it necessary.
Nice try though.
LOL, yeah you really "got me". I watch/listen to financial news daily as well as read about it. I don't think anyone saw the steep moves down as quickly as it went coming near the beginning of March. At the same time at that point I don't think the seriousness of COVID-19 was truly known. I honestly didn't expect a dip below 22k in mid March and felt like the bottom might end up around 20k. Of course I was wrong about it and it certainly can dip lower, but I kind of doubt it.
One key indicator that I usually watch lately are what I call "power stocks". These are companies that can/will endure what we are going through right now. As an example I watch Microsoft closely (along with similar tech stocks). When it showed signs of resistance at around $130 I figured that was a good time to get back in because even if it fell some more it wasn't going to go down much more and it will eventually make it back up to it's 52 week high ($190). I don't look at price solely I also look at volume.
The same could be said about companies like Amazon, Home Depot, Walmart, etc. They certainly won't go to zero and at this price point I feel that anything like that is a good opportunity in the long term.
(03-31-2020, 10:33 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-20-2020, 02:46 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ]You've been saying essentially the same thing for a month now. Maybe you can't predict the market.
Ehhhhhhhhh.... that's a little more on the arrogant @#$/ side than just saying, I disagree with your opinion, but I still think the markets over priced.
Yes, me slightly snarkily calling someone out is so outrageously arrogant. So out of line compared to the rest of this board.
C'mon bro, do you look at your own post on a daily basis? Please.
(03-31-2020, 03:07 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2020, 10:33 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]Ehhhhhhhhh.... that's a little more on the arrogant @#$/ side than just saying, I disagree with your opinion, but I still think the markets over priced.
Yes, me slightly snarkily calling someone out is so outrageously arrogant. So out of line compared to the rest of this board.
C'mon bro, do you look at your own post on a daily basis? Please.
Eh... don't worry about it. Your "calling me out" was correct in hindsight. I went back and looked at the charts and each time I made a comment I was being optimistic (which is my personality by default). Nobody can see into the future and nobody predicted the violent decline in the markets myself included.
As far as today? I don't think that we will test market lows in the near future. Barring some major catastrophic event I don't think we dip back down below 20k on the DOW. Again as I have said numerous times, I am by no means a professional and my comments are just my opinion.
So far my only short term "fail" is buying Boeing at a higher price. I initially wanted to buy at $150 and it shot past that last week. When it pulled back into the $160 range I went ahead and took a small position. It's now down to my initial "buy" price of around $150 (actual close today is $149.43). The thing is that this company will survive the COVID-19 pandemic and they will recover, especially with government backing. They are essentially the "only game in town" as far as aircraft manufacturing. The stock will go back up to it's 52 week high eventually. If I wasn't so lazy I would find the story that I saw where the government is buying more P-8 aircraft (basically a 737) as well as foreign military purchasing the same thing.
It's not about "timing the market" or "predicting a bottom". It's all about looking to the future and investing long term.
(03-31-2020, 08:52 AM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2020, 07:37 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]Unless there is another pandemic worse than COVID-19 on the horizon, no way.
Is there though? Please let me know right now.
The 2nd pandemic is the "economic collapse" pandemic, followed by the "empty shelves" pandemic, then the "9 meals from anarchy" pandemic, then the "3 weeks from cannibalism" pandemic.
So yeah, the Dow could go lower.
I'm quite ok with that as long as we can get back to the 12/31/2019 market numbers to give me a 2nd chance at moving my funds into a money market (cash) prior to the demise. I don't want to die broke.
(03-31-2020, 04:14 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2020, 03:07 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, me slightly snarkily calling someone out is so outrageously arrogant. So out of line compared to the rest of this board.
C'mon bro, do you look at your own post on a daily basis? Please.
Eh... don't worry about it. Your "calling me out" was correct in hindsight. I went back and looked at the charts and each time I made a comment I was being optimistic (which is my personality by default). Nobody can see into the future and nobody predicted the violent decline in the markets myself included.
As far as today? I don't think that we will test market lows in the near future. Barring some major catastrophic event I don't think we dip back down below 20k on the DOW. Again as I have said numerous times, I am by no means a professional and my comments are just my opinion.
So far my only short term "fail" is buying Boeing at a higher price. I initially wanted to buy at $150 and it shot past that last week. When it pulled back into the $160 range I went ahead and took a small position. It's now down to my initial "buy" price of around $150 (actual close today is $149.43). The thing is that this company will survive the COVID-19 pandemic and they will recover, especially with government backing. They are essentially the "only game in town" as far as aircraft manufacturing. The stock will go back up to it's 52 week high eventually. If I wasn't so lazy I would find the story that I saw where the government is buying more P-8 aircraft (basically a 737) as well as foreign military purchasing the same thing.
It's not about "timing the market" or "predicting a bottom". It's all about looking to the future and investing long term.
For almost everyone, the best way to invest is to buy carefully and never sell. Ride out the ups and downs and don't try to predict what the future will be a month from now or even a year from now. Because by the time you figure it out, someone else with a whole lot more market-moving power will have already figured it out and the market will have moved already. You will always be late. You're not going to beat Goldman Sachs to the punch and you're not going to know something before they know it.
(03-31-2020, 04:14 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2020, 03:07 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, me slightly snarkily calling someone out is so outrageously arrogant. So out of line compared to the rest of this board.
C'mon bro, do you look at your own post on a daily basis? Please.
Eh... don't worry about it. Your "calling me out" was correct in hindsight. I went back and looked at the charts and each time I made a comment I was being optimistic (which is my personality by default). Nobody can see into the future and nobody predicted the violent decline in the markets myself included.
As far as today? I don't think that we will test market lows in the near future. Barring some major catastrophic event I don't think we dip back down below 20k on the DOW. Again as I have said numerous times, I am by no means a professional and my comments are just my opinion.
So far my only short term "fail" is buying Boeing at a higher price. I initially wanted to buy at $150 and it shot past that last week. When it pulled back into the $160 range I went ahead and took a small position. It's now down to my initial "buy" price of around $150 (actual close today is $149.43). The thing is that this company will survive the COVID-19 pandemic and they will recover, especially with government backing. They are essentially the "only game in town" as far as aircraft manufacturing. The stock will go back up to it's 52 week high eventually. If I wasn't so lazy I would find the story that I saw where the government is buying more P-8 aircraft (basically a 737) as well as foreign military purchasing the same thing.
It's not about "timing the market" or "predicting a bottom". It's all about looking to the future and investing long term.
Not worried JIB. We may disagree often, but I know you don't take things personally and in my eyes you've always been extremely fair in adjudicating the board.
And true to form, I think we probably will see it dip down again. I don't really see how it can't, except it's not. So I'm completely confused and on the sidelines lol.
Your MSFT is looking real nice though.
(03-31-2020, 04:24 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2020, 04:14 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]Eh... don't worry about it. Your "calling me out" was correct in hindsight. I went back and looked at the charts and each time I made a comment I was being optimistic (which is my personality by default). Nobody can see into the future and nobody predicted the violent decline in the markets myself included.
As far as today? I don't think that we will test market lows in the near future. Barring some major catastrophic event I don't think we dip back down below 20k on the DOW. Again as I have said numerous times, I am by no means a professional and my comments are just my opinion.
So far my only short term "fail" is buying Boeing at a higher price. I initially wanted to buy at $150 and it shot past that last week. When it pulled back into the $160 range I went ahead and took a small position. It's now down to my initial "buy" price of around $150 (actual close today is $149.43). The thing is that this company will survive the COVID-19 pandemic and they will recover, especially with government backing. They are essentially the "only game in town" as far as aircraft manufacturing. The stock will go back up to it's 52 week high eventually. If I wasn't so lazy I would find the story that I saw where the government is buying more P-8 aircraft (basically a 737) as well as foreign military purchasing the same thing.
It's not about "timing the market" or "predicting a bottom". It's all about looking to the future and investing long term.
For almost everyone, the best way to invest is to buy carefully and never sell. Ride out the ups and downs and don't try to predict what the future will be a month from now or even a year from now. Because by the time you figure it out, someone else with a whole lot more market-moving power will have already figured it out and the market will have moved already. You will always be late. You're not going to beat Goldman Sachs to the punch and you're not going to know something before they know it.
True. I am certainly sure that the professional money managers probably bought what I did long before I did, and I do know that they can manipulate the price. I'm not trying to beat the "big boys" I'm just trying to beat the indices (which I have managed to do). Is my approach right or wrong? Is it careless or cautious? Is it for the "average" investor? Pretty much no. I am just documenting what I do in the hope that it helps others make their own decision(s).
(03-31-2020, 03:07 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2020, 10:33 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]Ehhhhhhhhh.... that's a little more on the arrogant @#$/ side than just saying, I disagree with your opinion, but I still think the markets over priced.
Yes, me slightly snarkily calling someone out is so outrageously arrogant. So out of line compared to the rest of this board.
C'mon bro, do you look at your own post on a daily basis? Please.
Ehhhhhh.... hey look. JIBs cool with it so hey, but from my point of view theres a difference between going hard at someone whose going hard at you and vs. randomly going back and pulling up post history when someone's holding up their hands saying "hey just my opinion could be wrong".
The challenge with this medium of communication is that in reality the words we use are only about 7% of the way humans communicate. I cant read ur body language or your tone of voice. As such sometimes slight snark can be misconstrued as being an @#$. I'll do better next time.
(03-31-2020, 09:08 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2020, 08:52 AM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ]The 2nd pandemic is the "economic collapse" pandemic, followed by the "empty shelves" pandemic, then the "9 meals from anarchy" pandemic, then the "3 weeks from cannibalism" pandemic.
So yeah, the Dow could go lower.
I'm surprised people don't see the possibility. A lot of people seem to think everything is just going to snap back to normal in a couple of months. That's impossible. Thousands upon thousands of small businesses are going to be wiped out, and lots of people will be unemployed for a long period of time, no matter what happens from here. Meanwhile, we are going to be left with 6 or more TRILLIONS of additional dollars in US government debt, and trillions of additional dollars in private debt. People will max out their credit cards to put the next meal on the table. Do people actually think this pandemic is going to be without cost beyond the lives lost??? There will be HUGE costs, and I don't think the stock market reflects that. Yet.
It depends on how big companies react. If CEOs and c-suite take the approach to only care about their bonus based on the share price, then we are all in trouble. If the companies take the approach that they care about their employees and will work to stay in business versus showing growth for the shareholders then it will recover. Small businesses may struggle, but if they have equipment or products, someone will be there to pick it up. Hopefully a lot of lenders and landlords take the approach that they can either lose out on 1-2 months worth of payments or lose a lot more if the business goes under and they have to try to find another company to purchase/lease.
My company has at least paused any firings, but that may end quickly depending on the revenue. It was already bad, but it would be bad PR to fire people right now.