Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

(05-20-2020, 09:39 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-18-2020, 03:42 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]Thought I would bring this thread up so we can all look at the predictions.  The DOW is on pace to almost make a 1000 point gain today and is sitting at around 24,650 (as of 3:37 EST).  I don't think this huge upswing will last long, but what I would like to see is the DOW resist going below 23,000 and even better stay above 24,000.  The NASDAQ and tech sector has been doing really well.

Depending on how this week shakes out I may take another "step in" on the next pull back.

I predicted the following at the time I started this thread.  I almost nailed the Bottom Date which turned out to be 3/23/2020 but underestimated the bottom number which turned out to be 18,591 (which was over 2,000 lower than my prediction)

Prediction
1) Bottom: 20,750
2) Bottom Date:  3/20/2020 
3) Dec 31 2020 Dow: 27,000

Yes, Monday was a great day with regards to the market.  I'm fully invested in the S&P Index which went from 2,630 to 2,960 --- I missed the bottom of 2,237 but was very close, considering it's nearly impossible to trade at the exact bottom.  If we start going back down for some known reason (e.g. pandemic breakout round 2 w/ no vaccine), I'll go back to cash/mutual fund to stabilize my funds then get back in on the way up.  This is actually a decent time to profit but timing the trades.

Looking back I should have gone Large Cap Class II which is more tied to technology (NASDAQ) but I felt more comfortable with S&P500 when i got back in and Fidelity limits trading activity so I didn't want to go into excess trading jail (prohibiting trades for 90 days and even up to 1 year).  Overall I'm down ~ 5% from our highs and ~2.5% year to date which isn't bad considering where we were in March (down 20%+) even though I had 40% tied up in bonds.

Just my opinion, but an S&P 500 index fund isn't a bad option.  Depending on your age and timetable you are going to do well in the long run.  I've held a small position in an S&P 500 index ETF (IVV) through this whole deal and it still hasn't reached the "break even point" (I had bought at $309.86 and it's currently at $296.21).  I am confident that by the end of Q3 it will be in the green barring any major catastrophe.  It will take perhaps into next year before it reaches it's 52 week high of $340.63.

From one of my favorite TV shows as a child

There are index funds that beat the average.

I'm continuing to climb for 2020. Wasn't easy, but sticking to those that traditionally outperform, not selling while down, and buying low always wins.

Put your seatbelts on ladies and gentlemen

Jerome Powell doing what he do...

"Traders also weighed Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on Wednesday; he said the pandemic could result in permanent economic damage and an extended period of high unemployment. He cautioned that, despite May's better-than-expected jobs report, "it's a long road" to a labor-market recovery."

(06-11-2020, 04:14 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]Jerome Powell doing what he do...

"Traders also weighed Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on Wednesday; he said the pandemic could result in permanent economic damage and an extended period of high unemployment. He cautioned that, despite May's better-than-expected jobs report, "it's a long road" to a labor-market recovery."

You know who made him Fed Chair, right? Same guy that made Mattis the Secdef, Kelly his Chief of Staff, Milley the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Sessions the AG...see a pattern?

Meh... good opportunity to buy the dip.  I did end up selling some today and taking profits (triggered automatically).  I'll be looking at another re-entry point on some positions.  I'm still long on Boeing and Micro$oft as well as a few ETF's that I bought.  I'll see what the market does tomorrow and plan accordingly.

I just xferred my funds from S&P 500 to the Money Market (Cash).  I told myself 2 months ago if I could get back up to the Feb High, I'd alleviate risk (in exchange for not gambling on profit).  I got a little greedy over the past few weeks as the market kept going up but I think I'll lay low for a few weeks and sleep peacefully instead of checking the implied open at 3am and 5am.  I'm predicting a little bit of an uptick for Friday but who knows after that.  I see experts predicting anything from a 5% gain to a 40% downturn over the next 3 months --- what the heck !! it's all over the board.  I'm good with what the past 60 days recouped, which resulted in a decent YTD profit and a very nominal gain from the Feb high.