Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Culpepper had a career year under him, he’s known for his spread passing game. If he is the OC and has full reign, we will be passing the ball a lot.

(01-16-2021, 09:54 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-16-2021, 07:19 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]The step up from NFL coordinator to NFL HC has proven equally tough for coaches.  The failure rate of NFL coordinators who become NFL head coaches is enormous.  So I don't put much stock in this thing about "lack of NFL experience."  NFL experience doesn't seem to make coordinators any more successful as head coaches than guys coming straight from college.

If you look at the teams that made the playoffs this year, 13 out of 14 had head coaches with NFL coaching experience prior to getting their current job.  If you also count playing in the NFL, all 14 had NFL experience.  Meyer doesn't.  NFL experience matters.

Promoting NFL coordinators was the most common method of having a playoff coach with 9 falling into that category.  3 were former NFL head coaches who were also previously either NFL coordinators or NFL assistant head coaches.  1 came directly from being a college head coach but had also previously been both an NFL head coach and an NFL coordinator for more than one team. 1 was a college coach with no NFL coaching experience.  The bottom line is that there's not one way to find a winning coach, but the numbers say promoting an NFL coordinator is the best option.

If you think this is just some one year fluke, it's not.  Let's look at history.  You have to go back 25 years to find the last time a team went to the Super Bowl with a head coach that had no NFL experience prior to getting that job.  

I'm hoping for the best and I plan to get fully behind our new head coach.  However, based upon the track record, I can understand why some fans have concern.

Belicheck was a NY Giants DC who failed as headcoach with the Browns and is now widely considered the best ever.

So I think you can throw almost everything out the window.

The one commonality I see is coaches who succeed usually have multiple experiences with winning orgainzations/teams/cultures.

Jimmie Johnson
1964 College National Champion with the Razorbacks
Louisiana Tech: recruited Terry Bradshaw
1987 College National Champion with the Hurricanes

Bill Belicheck
2 x Super Bowl champion as DC for the NY Giants
Made Super Bowl with Pats as assistant coach






ssistant coach under Jackie Sherrill

(01-16-2021, 09:54 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-16-2021, 07:19 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]The step up from NFL coordinator to NFL HC has proven equally tough for coaches.  The failure rate of NFL coordinators who become NFL head coaches is enormous.  So I don't put much stock in this thing about "lack of NFL experience."  NFL experience doesn't seem to make coordinators any more successful as head coaches than guys coming straight from college.

If you look at the teams that made the playoffs this year, 13 out of 14 had head coaches with NFL coaching experience prior to getting their current job.  If you also count playing in the NFL, all 14 had NFL experience.  Meyer doesn't.  NFL experience matters.

Promoting NFL coordinators was the most common method of having a playoff coach with 9 falling into that category.  3 were former NFL head coaches who were also previously either NFL coordinators or NFL assistant head coaches.  1 came directly from being a college head coach but had also previously been both an NFL head coach and an NFL coordinator for more than one team. 1 was a college coach with no NFL coaching experience.  The bottom line is that there's not one way to find a winning coach, but the numbers say promoting an NFL coordinator is the best option.

If you think this is just some one year fluke, it's not.  Let's look at history.  You have to go back 25 years to find the last time a team went to the Super Bowl with a head coach that had no NFL experience prior to getting that job.  

I'm hoping for the best and I plan to get fully behind our new head coach.  However, based upon the track record, I can understand why some fans have concern.

That's a misuse of statistics.  The question is, what percentage of NFL head coaches who had NFL experience succeeded, vs what percentage of NFL head coaches with no NFL experience succeeded.  What percentage of head coaches who had prior NFL experience failed vs what percentage of NFL head coaches who had no prior NFL experience failed.  Not raw numbers.  Percentages.  

What you are doing is like saying, since most great software engineers have brown hair, we should only hire software engineers who have brown hair.   

Suppose (hypothetically) there are 100 new NFL head coaches over a period of years.  95 of them had prior NFL experience as coordinators.  85 of them failed.  There is another group of 5 former college head coaches who had no prior NFL experience, and 3 of those failed at being an NFL head coach.  Since we have 10 NFL coordinators that were successful vs 2 college head coaches without NFL experience that were successful, you would say NFL experience is the best indicator of success.  But you could also say, the success rate of those coordinators is 10%, while the success rate of those college head coaches without NFL experience is 40%, and therefore head coaching experience, even if it is only in college, is best.  < I don't know what the actual statistics are.  I'm just asking the question.  

What we have in the case of Urban Meyer is an ultra-successful college coach with no NFL experience but loads of head coaching experience.  The other candidates had NFL experience, but no head coaching experience.  Which one is better?  The experience of being in the NFL, or the experience of being the head man and running a whole program?  

I'm looking for a new CEO. Do I promote the guy who did a great job running the finance department, or do I hire the guy who absolutely kicked [BLEEP] as a very successful CEO of a smaller company?  

Conclusion:  The reason most successful NFL head coaches have prior NFL experience might be because more coordinators without head coaching experience are hired in the first place.  But if you have the same failure rate as college head coaches without NFL experience, then I don't think you can draw any conclusion.

Meyer is not gonna take this job if he wasn't sure that he was going to succeed.

(01-16-2021, 11:01 PM)Tank Commander Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-16-2021, 09:54 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]If you look at the teams that made the playoffs this year, 13 out of 14 had head coaches with NFL coaching experience prior to getting their current job.  If you also count playing in the NFL, all 14 had NFL experience.  Meyer doesn't.  NFL experience matters.

Promoting NFL coordinators was the most common method of having a playoff coach with 9 falling into that category.  3 were former NFL head coaches who were also previously either NFL coordinators or NFL assistant head coaches.  1 came directly from being a college head coach but had also previously been both an NFL head coach and an NFL coordinator for more than one team. 1 was a college coach with no NFL coaching experience.  The bottom line is that there's not one way to find a winning coach, but the numbers say promoting an NFL coordinator is the best option.

If you think this is just some one year fluke, it's not.  Let's look at history.  You have to go back 25 years to find the last time a team went to the Super Bowl with a head coach that had no NFL experience prior to getting that job.  

I'm hoping for the best and I plan to get fully behind our new head coach.  However, based upon the track record, I can understand why some fans have concern.

Belicheck was a NY Giants DC who failed as headcoach with the Browns and is now widely considered the best ever.

So I think you can throw almost everything out the window.

The one commonality I see is coaches who succeed usually have multiple experiences with winning orgainzations/teams/cultures.

Jimmie Johnson
1964 College National Champion with the Razorbacks
Louisiana Tech: recruited Terry Bradshaw
1987 College National Champion with the Hurricanes

Bill Belicheck
2 x Super Bowl champion as DC for the NY Giants
Made Super Bowl with Pats as assistant coach






ssistant coach under Jackie Sherrill

I agree with you except the part about BB failing at the browns. The 95 browns were on track to make a deep playoff run when the team announced they would be moving to Baltimore. After that the wheels fell off and team. It wasn’t considered Bills fault at all.

(01-17-2021, 06:53 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-16-2021, 09:54 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]If you look at the teams that made the playoffs this year, 13 out of 14 had head coaches with NFL coaching experience prior to getting their current job.  If you also count playing in the NFL, all 14 had NFL experience.  Meyer doesn't.  NFL experience matters.

Promoting NFL coordinators was the most common method of having a playoff coach with 9 falling into that category.  3 were former NFL head coaches who were also previously either NFL coordinators or NFL assistant head coaches.  1 came directly from being a college head coach but had also previously been both an NFL head coach and an NFL coordinator for more than one team. 1 was a college coach with no NFL coaching experience.  The bottom line is that there's not one way to find a winning coach, but the numbers say promoting an NFL coordinator is the best option.

If you think this is just some one year fluke, it's not.  Let's look at history.  You have to go back 25 years to find the last time a team went to the Super Bowl with a head coach that had no NFL experience prior to getting that job.  

I'm hoping for the best and I plan to get fully behind our new head coach.  However, based upon the track record, I can understand why some fans have concern.

That's a misuse of statistics.  The question is, what percentage of NFL head coaches who had NFL experience succeeded, vs what percentage of NFL head coaches with no NFL experience succeeded.  What percentage of head coaches who had prior NFL experience failed vs what percentage of NFL head coaches who had no prior NFL experience failed.  Not raw numbers.  Percentages.  

What you are doing is like saying, since most great software engineers have brown hair, we should only hire software engineers who have brown hair.   

Suppose (hypothetically) there are 100 new NFL head coaches over a period of years.  95 of them had prior NFL experience as coordinators.  85 of them failed.  There is another group of 5 former college head coaches who had no prior NFL experience, and 3 of those failed at being an NFL head coach.  Since we have 10 NFL coordinators that were successful vs 2 college head coaches without NFL experience that were successful, you would say NFL experience is the best indicator of success.  But you could also say, the success rate of those coordinators is 10%, while the success rate of those college head coaches without NFL experience is 40%, and therefore head coaching experience, even if it is only in college, is best.  < I don't know what the actual statistics are.  I'm just asking the question.  

What we have in the case of Urban Meyer is an ultra-successful college coach with no NFL experience but loads of head coaching experience.  The other candidates had NFL experience, but no head coaching experience.  Which one is better?  The experience of being in the NFL, or the experience of being the head man and running a whole program?  

I'm looking for a new CEO. Do I promote the guy who did a great job running the finance department, or do I hire the guy who absolutely kicked [BLEEP] as a very successful CEO of a smaller company?  

Conclusion:  The reason most successful NFL head coaches have prior NFL experience might be because more coordinators without head coaching experience are hired in the first place.  But if you have the same failure rate as college head coaches without NFL experience, then I don't think you can draw any conclusion.

I don't feel that I'm misusing statistics at all.  You fail to question why NFL teams don't hire coaches without NFL experience.  It's because they know it typically doesn't work.  If hiring coaches with no experience was successful 3 out of 5 times like in your hypothetical example, then NFL teams would routinely be hiring them.  There wouldn't only be 5 college coaches in the sample.  Being successful as a college coach is largely about recruiting and to the extent it is about x's and o's, they are different from the NFL.  NFL executives know that and it is why most of them shy away from selecting college coaches.

In regards to your CEO analogy, I would use the example of a hotel owner looking to hire a hotel manager.  He has three choices:

1.  Look at every single hotel and hire the best assistant hotel manager who has a wonderful reputation.
2.  Hire a former hotel manager that has been fired.
3.  Hire the manager of a successful flower shop.

I would go with the best assistant hotel manager.  While certain skills of the flower shop manager may transfer well, his current success may also be due to his vast knowledge of flowers and their customers.  There's likely important elements to running a hotel that he isn't aware.  It is not to say that the flower shop manager would 100% fail, but I think few wouldn't consider the assistant hotel manager to be the much safer option.

(01-16-2021, 10:38 PM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-16-2021, 10:01 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]Why do so many people hate Linehan?  I'm seriously asking.  I don't know his work personally, but statistically, it's not that bad.  He's been an offensive coordinator for 13 seasons.  In 7 of those 13 seasons, his offense was ranked in the top 6 in the NFL in yards.  He failed as a head coach, but we're not bringing in for that role.

Maybe it goes deeper than taking 10 seconds to google his offensive rankings.

Maybe you should then enlighten us with your 11 seconds of research.  If you don't like a highly experienced offensive coordinator with a mostly successful track record, please tell us why.

(01-17-2021, 04:55 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-17-2021, 06:53 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]That's a misuse of statistics.  The question is, what percentage of NFL head coaches who had NFL experience succeeded, vs what percentage of NFL head coaches with no NFL experience succeeded.  What percentage of head coaches who had prior NFL experience failed vs what percentage of NFL head coaches who had no prior NFL experience failed.  Not raw numbers.  Percentages.  

What you are doing is like saying, since most great software engineers have brown hair, we should only hire software engineers who have brown hair.   

Suppose (hypothetically) there are 100 new NFL head coaches over a period of years.  95 of them had prior NFL experience as coordinators.  85 of them failed.  There is another group of 5 former college head coaches who had no prior NFL experience, and 3 of those failed at being an NFL head coach.  Since we have 10 NFL coordinators that were successful vs 2 college head coaches without NFL experience that were successful, you would say NFL experience is the best indicator of success.  But you could also say, the success rate of those coordinators is 10%, while the success rate of those college head coaches without NFL experience is 40%, and therefore head coaching experience, even if it is only in college, is best.  < I don't know what the actual statistics are.  I'm just asking the question.  

What we have in the case of Urban Meyer is an ultra-successful college coach with no NFL experience but loads of head coaching experience.  The other candidates had NFL experience, but no head coaching experience.  Which one is better?  The experience of being in the NFL, or the experience of being the head man and running a whole program?  

I'm looking for a new CEO. Do I promote the guy who did a great job running the finance department, or do I hire the guy who absolutely kicked [BLEEP] as a very successful CEO of a smaller company?  

Conclusion:  The reason most successful NFL head coaches have prior NFL experience might be because more coordinators without head coaching experience are hired in the first place.  But if you have the same failure rate as college head coaches without NFL experience, then I don't think you can draw any conclusion.

I don't feel that I'm misusing statistics at all.  You fail to question why NFL teams don't hire coaches without NFL experience.  It's because they know it typically doesn't work.  If hiring coaches with no experience was successful 3 out of 5 times like in your hypothetical example, then NFL teams would routinely be hiring them.  There wouldn't only be 5 college coaches in the sample.  Being successful as a college coach is largely about recruiting and to the extent it is about x's and o's, they are different from the NFL.  NFL executives know that and it is why most of them shy away from selecting college coaches.

In regards to your CEO analogy, I would use the example of a hotel owner looking to hire a hotel manager.  He has three choices:

1.  Look at every single hotel and hire the best assistant hotel manager who has a wonderful reputation.
2.  Hire a former hotel manager that has been fired.
3.  Hire the manager of a successful flower shop.

I would go with the best assistant hotel manager.  While certain skills of the flower shop manager may transfer well, his current success may also be due to his vast knowledge of flowers and their customers.  There's likely important elements to running a hotel that he isn't aware.  It is not to say that the flower shop manager would 100% fail, but I think few wouldn't consider the assistant hotel manager to be the much safer option.

That is too drastic of a difference. It's more like a motel manager at a 1 star being hired for a 5 star hotel. They are generally the same, but the details are completely different.

College you can get any player you want (if you are a top school), NFL you have to draft or spend a lot of money to get the best players. Money is fixed in the NFL, where college it is only limited by what the boosters and team can hide.

Sent from my SM-T970 using Tapatalk

What a nightmare this hire is.

We are going to suck for a while longer, unless he gets assistants with a lot of nfl experience.

I hope Meyer doesn't throw the challenge flag when a WR is called out with only one foot inbounds.

(01-17-2021, 08:21 PM)TrivialPursuit Wrote: [ -> ]What a nightmare this hire is.

yes, the Jags got the guy with the best winning percentage in the last 80 years in college, when they could have got an assistant coach from the NFL without any head coaching experience, LMAO!!! HAHAHAHH

Neither Bienemy nor Daboll were hired. I think this says a lot about how people on a message board value coaches compared to actual NFL executives.

Next step will be when we stay with a 4-3 defense...

(01-18-2021, 02:48 AM)CinciJag Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-17-2021, 08:21 PM)TrivialPursuit Wrote: [ -> ]What a nightmare this hire is.

yes, the Jags got the guy with the best winning percentage in the last 80 years in college, when they could have got an assistant coach from the NFL without any head coaching experience, LMAO!!! HAHAHAHH

I know right. How stupid is this team. I don’t know why khan doesn’t consult the members on this board before making every decision. We would have already won at least 5 Super Bowls by now. gosh what and idiot.

(01-18-2021, 05:40 AM)JagsorDie Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-18-2021, 02:48 AM)CinciJag Wrote: [ -> ]yes, the Jags got the guy with the best winning percentage in the last 80 years in college, when they could have got an assistant coach from the NFL without any head coaching experience, LMAO!!! HAHAHAHH

I know right. How stupid is this team. I don’t know why khan doesn’t consult the members on this board before making every decision. We would have already won at least 5 Super Bowls by now. gosh what and idiot.

We'll to be fair, the naysayers have a point. Everyone knows the college game is different. The field is only 60 yards long, the ball looks more like a softball and college teams don't use quarterbacks. Tackling is also illegal. Meyer will probably really struggle to adjust.

(01-18-2021, 05:40 AM)JagsorDie Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-18-2021, 02:48 AM)CinciJag Wrote: [ -> ]yes, the Jags got the guy with the best winning percentage in the last 80 years in college, when they could have got an assistant coach from the NFL without any head coaching experience, LMAO!!! HAHAHAHH

I know right. How stupid is this team. I don’t know why khan doesn’t consult the members on this board before making every decision. We would have already won at least 5 Super Bowls by now. gosh what and idiot.

Frankly we'd be a lot better off if he just took half of our advice.

(01-18-2021, 08:06 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-18-2021, 05:40 AM)JagsorDie Wrote: [ -> ]I know right. How stupid is this team. I don’t know why khan doesn’t consult the members on this board before making every decision. We would have already won at least 5 Super Bowls by now. gosh what and idiot.

Frankly we'd be a lot better off if he just took half of our advice.

Which half?  That's the key, right?  There's a right half and a wrong half.

(01-18-2021, 02:48 AM)CinciJag Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-17-2021, 08:21 PM)TrivialPursuit Wrote: [ -> ]What a nightmare this hire is.

yes, the Jags got the guy with the best winning percentage in the last 80 years in college, when they could have got an assistant coach from the NFL without any head coaching experience, LMAO!!! HAHAHAHH

College means nothing.

He has no idea the egos involved in the big boy leagues.

It's not mommy and daddy pulling the strings of your players anymore... it's the player or the player's wife.. and he has zero clue how to handle actual men.

He's going to go in there thinking he's the biggest and baddest and then get brought down to earth quick when the majority of his players make more money than him and don't give a crap about what he says.

His college players have the worst arrest record in the history of the sport - but only AFTER they left his protective umbrella....That doesn't say anything?

This is just yet another step in Khan's mission to move the Jags. Alienate and destroy the fanbase.

(01-18-2021, 10:41 AM)TrivialPursuit Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-18-2021, 02:48 AM)CinciJag Wrote: [ -> ]yes, the Jags got the guy with the best winning percentage in the last 80 years in college, when they could have got an assistant coach from the NFL without any head coaching experience, LMAO!!! HAHAHAHH

College means nothing.

He has no idea the egos involved in the big boy leagues.

It's not mommy and daddy pulling the strings of your players anymore... it's the player or the player's wife.. and he has zero clue how to handle actual men.

He's going to go in there thinking he's the biggest and baddest and then get brought down to earth quick when the majority of his players make more money than him and don't give a crap about what he says.

His college players have the worst arrest record in the history of the sport - but only AFTER they left his protective umbrella....That doesn't say anything?

This is just yet another step in Khan's mission to move the Jags. Alienate and destroy the fanbase.

You really must think Urban Meyer is the dumbest guy in history.  Apparently you know all this stuff and he has no idea.  

Come on, man.