(02-15-2021, 02:16 PM)Upper Wrote: [ -> ]Any team that would trade to 33 to get their QB would trade up another spot or two to guarantee that 5th year option for the QB.
You are right.
The more I process this, the more I realize that if the team is going to trade down from 25 or 33, a team's desire for a QB is not likely to be the driving force.
We've already discussed the picks between 25-33 and below.
An examination of the picks above our second first round pick shows a slew of teams between 18 and 24 that could easily be in the market for a QB in the spring, making the likelihood of a QB falling to us at 25 small.
Miami sits at 18 and there has been talk that the team has soured on Tua after one season. I don't buy it. That said, I could see the team making a move for Deshaun Watson, who, at present, represents a substantial upgrade over Tua. Watson and that defense could make a lot of noise in the postseason next year. But if they were to go the rookie route, I think it would be far more likely to happen at 3 instead of at 18. If they don't trade for Watson, they are more apt to put pieces around Tua to help ensure his success.
Next at 19 is Washington. I think of the teams in this group, Washington is more likely to go with a rookie QB since they flamed out with Haskins. That said, like Miami, they would seem to benefit greatly from a steady and competent veteran presence. That is another team with a strong defense, and if they straighten out the QB position, could make noise in the postseason. If they go the vet route, I'm betting they would try to improve LT. Their positioning at 19 would seemingly put them in a good spot to land that group of Ts that would seem to be on the board at the bottom half of the 1st round at this point (and some will undoubtedly rise during the pre-draft process). I think this would make them less likely to move down.
Da Bears are at 20, and they seemingly always need a competent signal caller. While I think they could go either the vet or rookie route, I would put them in the veteran category. I don't think Nagy is secure enough in his position to go with a rookie, and their defense is still potentially good enough to enable them to do harm in the postseason if they get QB straight. If they don't go with a rookie QB, I think they will either go WR to replace the likely to leave Allen Robinson, or T to upgrade Charles Leno at LT.
Indy is at 21, and I think they will go for a vet. Just about everything else is in place for them to go that route. If the reports are true, they have yet to offer a first round pick for Wentz. If they pull off that trade without giving up their #1, I think they try for one of the Ts to replace retired LT Anthony Casztonzo. Their slot at 21 should put them in the middle of the T group, so even if they get their vet and a QB is there, I'm not sure they would trade down. But as for QB, if they can't pull of the trade for the vet they want, they may decide to take the QB if one they like drops. Screw the Colts.
Screw the tacks at 22. It's highly doubtful they go for a QB there. They will likely go for an edge rusher. They seemingly draft them every other year and they never seem to pan out. CB is also likely here, as their secondary fell off considerably.
The Jets are sitting at 23, thanks to the Jamal Adams trade. However, I firmly believe they will have decided on QB by this point, either by sticking with Darnold, trading for Watson, or drafting a guy like Zach Wilson at 2. They have numerous holes in the roster. They could stay here and be among the group that drafts a T here, or could trade down from here for a team looking to jump...
Pittsburgh, who sits at 24. Pittsburgh should be in the market for a rookie signal caller to follow Big Ben. This is a team teetering on the brink of collapse. Big Ben is near the end, and is in the last year of his contract. He showed signs of decline, and will minimally lose three key contributors to their offense: LT A. Villanueva, C M. Pouncey, and WR JuJe Smith Schuster. If a QB somehow fell to them, I wouldn't see them passing him up unless they simply flat out didn't like him. In that case, they would be prime candidates for one of the tackles, so at this stage, I wouldn't see them as a team that would trade down or pass on a QB prospect.
So any team looking to trade up into the bottom half of the first round has two relatively small windows into which to trade to find a signal caller that falls: picks 22-23, and picks 26-31. Those spots do not readily lend themselves to the Jaguars trading down with a QB hungry team. The prime and/urgent spots would, in both cases, be above the Jaguars picks at 25 and 33.