(04-22-2021, 04:10 PM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ] (04-22-2021, 08:44 AM)Jagulars Wrote: [ -> ]I have this feeling the Jaguars are going to push hard to trade up from 25. Will it happen? Who knows. But in the case that it was possible, where would you feel the team moves up to and who would they take?
I would guess they attempt to move up to 4 to take OT Sewell. Hopping over the Bengals at 5 who could really use him for Burrow.
No way in poop they try to jump that high.
I'm thinking the jump will be in the 18-20 range for an OT, either Darrisaw, Jenkins or Eichenburg if they are dead set on getting a tackle.
(04-22-2021, 09:59 AM)HolsterHusto Wrote: [ -> ]Funny you say that. Drafttek just posted a mock with the Jags taking Lawrence and then turning around and trading up to 1.4 for Sewell.
https://www.drafttek.com/m/2021-NFL-Mock...Round1.asp
Quote:Jaguars trade #25, #33 and #65 to Falcons in exchange for #4.
ahahahahahahah ain't no way that is enough for ATL to take that deal. or if they do, the GM is likely fired before the end of April.
Based on the press conference yesterday, I don't see this happening at all.
UM is looking for 4-5 starters from the first two-3 rounds. That can't happen if they move up to 4 from 25. Even assuming they hit on both TL and Sewell/Pitts/Chase/ etc
The best they could hope for is 3 starters.
I don't think the trade parameters set above would be enough to move up that far for a few reasons.
1. The market for a top 5 pick was set by San Francisco moving up from 12 to 3 in search of a QB. They gave up three #1 picks (2021, 2022, 2023 and a 3rd round pic) to move up 9 spots. The Jaguars would be moving up 21 spots. Conversely, the Falcons would move down 21 spots.
2. There would still be at least one highly rated QB left on the board at 4, with at least one team in the top ten (Denver) that might be willing to pay to move up into that spot, which would drive the price up more. This doesn't factor in teams currently outside the top ten like New England, Washington or Chicago who could make bids for that spot.
3. Back in 2011, Atlanta made almost exactly the same move being proposed here, when they traded up from 27 to 6 to draft Julio Jones. In that deal, Atlanta gave up their first, second and 4th round picks in 2011 and a first and 4th in 2012. I seriously doubt Atlanta would make a similar deal for less than what they paid to move up to 6.
The thing is, assuming we replicated the Julio Jones trade or the drafttek parameters, we'd have the raw ammo to pull it off. Replicating the Julio Jones trade would still leave us with eight draft picks this year: 2 1sts (Lawrence & Pitts/Sewell), a 2nd (#45), a 3rd (65) a 4th (130), 2 5ths, and a 7th (249). The standard number of draft picks without trades or compensatory picks is seven. We'd even have an extra mid round pick next year (from Min for Ngakoue). But we'd miss out on the first round pick in 2022.
Replicating the drafttek parameters, it would be far less expensive. We'd still end up with 2 1sts, a 2nd (#45) no 3rd rounder, and the remainder of our picks from rounds 4-7). and still end up with eight picks overall. But we'd be off the hook for next year.
However, as I indicated earlier, both trades would impact the team's ability to acquire 4-5 starters this year. If you assume the odds of drafting a starter falls dramatically after the 3rd round, either the team would have to hit big on one or more of the late round picks, or would have to package the late round picks to move into the 3rd round. But that would have a negative impact on the team's depth.
I certainly don't think trading up a lesser amount is out of the question. But trading all the way up to four, while exciting, is not likely for this team.