10-30-2022, 02:40 PM
After this Broncos game we're nearly halfway through and barring any kind of midseason improvement it feels like we all have a pretty good idea what this team is. A few thoughts....
We have zero big time playmakers on this team that make game winning plays late. Our defense just absolutely folds late in games when you need them to make a stop. We just don't have any special elite talent on our defense. When we scored with under 4 minutes to go to take the lead, that should have been the game winner. But you just knew the Broncos would march down the field. Was just a matter of how quickly and how easily they could do so. It's almost like you go into these situations knowing we need to put together back to back game winning drives because our defense just isn't going to hold whatever lead you get them.
I don't like Doug's passing game. Part of it is personal preference. I've always enjoyed watching teams that run physically and throw deep. And I've always disliked the short west coast passing attack. Didn't like watching the Niners do it under Bill Walsh and all the versions of the west coast that has come from it. Obviously it can be very effective with the right players. I don't think this type of offense is ideal for a QB like Lawrence. And not having a reliable pure TE threat really limits it as well. We are stuck relying on too many quick bubble screens. And few if any big plays result from it. The biggest problem in my mind though is how we have to essentially dink and dunk our way down the field. And one missed throw or dropped pass or offensive penalty puts us behind script and it is so much harder to convert. The offense just isn't designed to make up just one miss. Late in this Broncos game I could sworn I saw a stat that said our average 3rd down distance was 9 yards. Not many offenses can function that way but especially this one. Big plays aren't in the design of this offense. And Lawrence isn't designed for it. I'm sure there will be a lot of criticism on him today and I'll talk about him more in a second. But he isn't accurate enough to consistently dink and dunk you down the field. He is much more accurate this year than last with these quick bubble screens, slant patterns, outs, etc... but he isn't going to hit on 10/10 of these. He is going to miss a couple of them and now all of a sudden the offense is in huge peril with just one miss. I was watching the Chiefs the other night and they had a 2nd and 15th, Mahomes threw a terribly missed pass on a wide open WR. 3rd and 15 we'd be done. Bubble screen or delayed draw hoping for a big play but conceding a punt. Chiefs throw 20 yards down the field and easily convert on 3rd down. Think it was Kelce and he was fairly open so not a hard throw for Mahomes. Now obviously we don't have Kelce but the point is when Mahomes misses an easy completion, it's not like the whole drive is in danger. They can overcome because they push the ball down the field. I watch enough NFL games to see the best QBs missing easy throws all the time. But their offenses overcome because they push the ball down the field. Yes you can argue we don't have WRs that are a threat down the field. We clearly don't have a TE that draws attention in the middle of the field. But it's not part of our offensive gameplan either. This offense just doesn't allow for mistakes. It's just too difficult to overcome. And it is so maddening.
Lawrence. All I care about is us finding a QB that can lead us to a super bowl. I'd like for it to be him because he is already here. But if it's not him, I don't care other than I'd prefer not to do this all over again looking for another guy. I don't feel like I have to take stance on him and stick with it regardless of how he plays. Now I don't engage in these boards as often as I used to but I'm sure there are a bunch of people here ready to move on. I'm not yet. Still have him under contract and he has a lot of talent. I'd rather stick with him for another two years and him not be the guy than to give up on him at the end of season, see another coach maximize his ability and turn him into a consistent top 10 QB. Nothing would be more jaguar than to have a future franchise QB but to give up on him too early. Now saying all that it does feel like he just doesn't have that kind of off-script magic that you need to make big plays in big moments. Now admittedly we have seen him this year make plays late in a game to drive the team on a should be game winning touchdown (the Colts game) only to see the defense collapse. But that felt like more of anomaly than the norm. We don't often see him make a play or a drive late where he has to create these magical off script moments to win games. Those 2 minute drives and redzone possessions he just really lacks something. I guess you can just call it the "it" factor. I don't know. We tend to think some people have it and others dont. Maybe it is something that can be developed with more experience. I'm still rooting for him to be the guy but he desperately needs to improve in those two situations.
Season feels over at this point. Today was pretty close to a must win. Probably need to be 9-8 at worst to make playoffs. need to go 7-2 the rest of the way. Not happening. Most years I just want to get to December and be playing meaningful games. Don't think we'll get there. Now in the same tired place of just wanting to see improvement.
We have zero big time playmakers on this team that make game winning plays late. Our defense just absolutely folds late in games when you need them to make a stop. We just don't have any special elite talent on our defense. When we scored with under 4 minutes to go to take the lead, that should have been the game winner. But you just knew the Broncos would march down the field. Was just a matter of how quickly and how easily they could do so. It's almost like you go into these situations knowing we need to put together back to back game winning drives because our defense just isn't going to hold whatever lead you get them.
I don't like Doug's passing game. Part of it is personal preference. I've always enjoyed watching teams that run physically and throw deep. And I've always disliked the short west coast passing attack. Didn't like watching the Niners do it under Bill Walsh and all the versions of the west coast that has come from it. Obviously it can be very effective with the right players. I don't think this type of offense is ideal for a QB like Lawrence. And not having a reliable pure TE threat really limits it as well. We are stuck relying on too many quick bubble screens. And few if any big plays result from it. The biggest problem in my mind though is how we have to essentially dink and dunk our way down the field. And one missed throw or dropped pass or offensive penalty puts us behind script and it is so much harder to convert. The offense just isn't designed to make up just one miss. Late in this Broncos game I could sworn I saw a stat that said our average 3rd down distance was 9 yards. Not many offenses can function that way but especially this one. Big plays aren't in the design of this offense. And Lawrence isn't designed for it. I'm sure there will be a lot of criticism on him today and I'll talk about him more in a second. But he isn't accurate enough to consistently dink and dunk you down the field. He is much more accurate this year than last with these quick bubble screens, slant patterns, outs, etc... but he isn't going to hit on 10/10 of these. He is going to miss a couple of them and now all of a sudden the offense is in huge peril with just one miss. I was watching the Chiefs the other night and they had a 2nd and 15th, Mahomes threw a terribly missed pass on a wide open WR. 3rd and 15 we'd be done. Bubble screen or delayed draw hoping for a big play but conceding a punt. Chiefs throw 20 yards down the field and easily convert on 3rd down. Think it was Kelce and he was fairly open so not a hard throw for Mahomes. Now obviously we don't have Kelce but the point is when Mahomes misses an easy completion, it's not like the whole drive is in danger. They can overcome because they push the ball down the field. I watch enough NFL games to see the best QBs missing easy throws all the time. But their offenses overcome because they push the ball down the field. Yes you can argue we don't have WRs that are a threat down the field. We clearly don't have a TE that draws attention in the middle of the field. But it's not part of our offensive gameplan either. This offense just doesn't allow for mistakes. It's just too difficult to overcome. And it is so maddening.
Lawrence. All I care about is us finding a QB that can lead us to a super bowl. I'd like for it to be him because he is already here. But if it's not him, I don't care other than I'd prefer not to do this all over again looking for another guy. I don't feel like I have to take stance on him and stick with it regardless of how he plays. Now I don't engage in these boards as often as I used to but I'm sure there are a bunch of people here ready to move on. I'm not yet. Still have him under contract and he has a lot of talent. I'd rather stick with him for another two years and him not be the guy than to give up on him at the end of season, see another coach maximize his ability and turn him into a consistent top 10 QB. Nothing would be more jaguar than to have a future franchise QB but to give up on him too early. Now saying all that it does feel like he just doesn't have that kind of off-script magic that you need to make big plays in big moments. Now admittedly we have seen him this year make plays late in a game to drive the team on a should be game winning touchdown (the Colts game) only to see the defense collapse. But that felt like more of anomaly than the norm. We don't often see him make a play or a drive late where he has to create these magical off script moments to win games. Those 2 minute drives and redzone possessions he just really lacks something. I guess you can just call it the "it" factor. I don't know. We tend to think some people have it and others dont. Maybe it is something that can be developed with more experience. I'm still rooting for him to be the guy but he desperately needs to improve in those two situations.
Season feels over at this point. Today was pretty close to a must win. Probably need to be 9-8 at worst to make playoffs. need to go 7-2 the rest of the way. Not happening. Most years I just want to get to December and be playing meaningful games. Don't think we'll get there. Now in the same tired place of just wanting to see improvement.