I've brought this up in multiple threads that are focused on other topics, so I figured I"d post it here.
At 50% win rate - the Jags OL is fifth worst in the league in protection.
Folks keep demanding more downfield throws and lamenting certain incompletions and throwaways.
Well, unfortunately, the looks downfield are very often spoiled by pressure.
Hell, the short passes are often marred by pressure as well. I posted this stuff in the "add a pass catcher" thread, but I'm putting it here as well.
Here are his attempts to look deep in the first three series from London.
1st attempt:
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/E8HKb2BHJeb2aZCvCG/giphy.gif)
Scherff is helping Fortner and ETN has to chip a free pass rusher - not enough to get it done with Den's secondary covering well
TL's second look deep was a beautiful TD pass to Evan Engram (with Cam Robinson being pushed back into him)
Third series, third look deep:
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/P4E7zRAgDc0LVh4TmO/giphy.gif)
First two guys are covered, can't get to third read before Cam loses his battle in 1.9 seconds.
It is happening in every game when they try to hit longer routes. Consistently.
In addition to TL getting pressured too often to take deep shots more often, he's getting it on the quick stuff too.
here are two more clips - again JUST from the first three series in London. And we know this OL gets worse in protection late in games. We've seen it several times.
This is a completion to Zay Jones and Cam is letting his guy get a hand on Trevor within 1.6 seconds.
Cam is on skates immediately.
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/oE9s0o8bHuUvFDTkEE/giphy.gif)
Here is another quick completion where Fortner and Cam are getting killed
Again - from only the first three series in London
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/bQ9bQKqtsYRdIC0jzy/giphy.gif)
1.9 seconds to QB getting contacted
Again - it happens every week consistently. Not sure why we are ignoring it.
This is a big part of the problem - and it is primarily at Center, LG and LT.
Going to be nit picky as hell with those three slides, but, is there any reason why he's not sliding up into the pocket? His first instincts seems to reek of "one read, bail".
This is exactly what Lageman was pointing at in particular. He gets happy feet, drifts, bails, etc. He couldn't move up in one of those slides? He had a double team over there on the right side.
Again, not being overly analytical here and I know it's a monumental task to pull up every little slide but he's also in the gun and he should be making his presnap reads there as well, correct? Just trying to spitball here.
I couldn't see the other two images on the quick plays though.
(11-02-2022, 11:48 AM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]Going to be nit picky as hell with those three slides, but, is there any reason why he's not sliding up into the pocket? His first instincts seems to reek of "one read, bail".
This is exactly what Lageman was pointing at in particular. He gets happy feet, drifts, bails, etc. He couldn't move up in one of those slides? He had a double team over there on the right side.
Again, not being overly analytical here and I know it's a monumental task to pull up every little slide but he's also in the gun and he should be making his presnap reads there as well, correct? Just trying to spitball here.
I couldn't see the other two images on the quick plays though.
Wut??
There is nowhere to go in the only two that qualify as how you are labeling them .
In the first one he's laterally evading a free rusher hoping the RB is going to do something - he then plants his feet and looks to pass but it's covered - then he runs. There was no step up available.
The second - Cam lets his guy go completely - stepping up would get him strip sacked.
also - pressure in <2 seconds is supposed to give a QB time to "step up?"
This is great NYC. Thanks for making these.
Our Oline is just getting beat each week on crucial plays and then our DLine is making bonehead plays during crucial plays.
It's legit 3 plays each week (Trevor making some as well) that has costed this team 4 wins.
We need to invest in the trenches again on both sides of the ball.
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-...ays-sacked
Lawrence is the 10th most hurried QB in the NFL. Less than Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Geno, Kyler, Daniel Jones etc.
He's been sacked 12 times, Fields 31 times, Burrow 29 times, Jones 25 times, Murray 19 times Geno 19 times etc.
According to this website, Lawrence is #2 in poor passes with 51.
Ties with Brady and Herbert with 17 dropped passes.
With that being said, yes the offensive line is a problem. But there are plenty of examples of QBs in a worse situation, playing good football. He needs to get better.. no sugar coating it.
(11-02-2022, 12:03 PM)AppealingBS Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-...ays-sacked
Lawrence is the 10th most hurried QB in the NFL. Less than Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Geno, Kyler, Daniel Jones etc.
He's been sacked 12 times, Fields 31 times, Burrow 29 times, Jones 25 times, Murray 19 times Geno 19 times etc.
According to this website, Lawrence is #2 in poor passes with 51.
Ties with Brady and Herbert with 17 dropped passes.
With that being said, yes the offensive line is a problem. But there are plenty of examples of QBs in a worse situation, playing good football. He needs to get better.. no sugar coating it.
You're so close. You can do it! Put 2 and 2 together!
I thought I saw something that said we were 5th or 6th best in pass protection on ESPN or PFF? Did I misread it?
Moving to the 4th series in the London game and the next time Trevor looks for a receiver beyond 15 yards.
Here he's initially looking for Kirk to make his break inward from the seam deep, but Shatley is getting blown up and Taylor is getting beaten around the edge, so he makes a good dump off pass to Engram... who drops the ball.
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/MdbPKGC303M1gkQy1q/giphy.gif)
1.8 seconds to pressure.
Is that enough time to throw deep?
There's no room for rational, reasonable and fair assessments in here I see. Not to mention the slides are sped up and it makes it appear that much worse but he has a long way to go in terms of QB technique here.
Again, presnap reads, using his body language to freeze a defender, looking a defender off, etc. I saw an opportunity or two there in the London game where he could have slid to the right side instead of running to his left where the pressure was coming from and he had enough room there to move up and around in that second slide.
Also, you're pointing out a "50% win rate", yet, he's in a pass centric offense. He's 6th in pass attempts. Looks like the staff is either A. Overconfident in Lawrence's abilities to initiate all of the above nuances to the position that I listed there and/or B. Overconfident in this team's pass protection abilities, which, I think they are given they have only surrendered 12 sacks on the year.
So, listen, I am not going to get into this back and forth tennis match with "my analysis this" and "my analysis that". At the end of the day? We can all be picky and choosy thanks to PFF's metric system. The reality is that, I listen to the radio every day, and I keep hearing a lot of different things from actual football players that see things differently. That's between Jeff Lageman, David Garrard, Leon Searcy and a few other guests, etc.
Not saying there's no merit to some of these slides. I just think, if we're going to be fair and honest? You would have to dig into every single 277 pass attempts he's had this year to determine what the root of the issue is with him offensively. Is it really pass protection? Or, is it his inability to process things faster, make presnap reads accurately, move the pocket correctly, etc.
Is it the high pointing of the football, the issue with him trying to laser beam everything into his receiver's hands, etc?
Anyway. It is what it is. Appreciate the slides.
(11-02-2022, 12:31 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]There's no room for rational, reasonable and fair assessments in here I see. Not to mention the slides are sped up and it makes it appear that much worse but he has a long way to go in terms of QB technique here.
Again, presnap reads, using his body language to freeze a defender, looking a defender off, etc. I saw an opportunity or two there in the London game where he could have slid to the right side instead of running to his left where the pressure was coming from and he had enough room there to move up and around in that second slide.
Also, you're pointing out a "50% win rate", yet, he's in a pass centric offense. He's 6th in pass attempts. Looks like the staff is either A. Overconfident in Lawrence's abilities to initiate all of the above nuances to the position that I listed there and/or B. Overconfident in this team's pass protection abilities, which, I think they are given they have only surrendered 12 sacks on the year.
So, listen, I am not going to get into this back and forth tennis match with "my analysis this" and "my analysis that". At the end of the day? We can all be picky and choosy thanks to PFF's metric system. The reality is that, I listen to the radio every day, and I keep hearing a lot of different things from actual football players that see things differently. That's between Jeff Lageman, David Garrard, Leon Searcy and a few other guests, etc.
Not saying there's no merit to some of these slides. I just think, if we're going to be fair and honest? You would have to dig into every single 277 pass attempts he's had this year to determine what the root of the issue is with him offensively. Is it really pass protection? Or, is it his inability to process things faster, make presnap reads accurately, move the pocket correctly, etc.
Is it the high pointing of the football, the issue with him trying to laser beam everything into his receiver's hands, etc?
Anyway. It is what it is. Appreciate the slides.
The speed settings are at zero. No plus, no minus.
The hosting site's resolution may speed them up a touch, but you are seeing something within milliseconds of game speed here.
You've got some ideas in your head about what is going wrong (and they are likely all valid) - but they apparently don't allow for the possibility of quick pressure spoiling plays to be a major factor.
I disagree. No biggie.
(11-02-2022, 12:37 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2022, 12:31 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]There's no room for rational, reasonable and fair assessments in here I see. Not to mention the slides are sped up and it makes it appear that much worse but he has a long way to go in terms of QB technique here.
Again, presnap reads, using his body language to freeze a defender, looking a defender off, etc. I saw an opportunity or two there in the London game where he could have slid to the right side instead of running to his left where the pressure was coming from and he had enough room there to move up and around in that second slide.
Also, you're pointing out a "50% win rate", yet, he's in a pass centric offense. He's 6th in pass attempts. Looks like the staff is either A. Overconfident in Lawrence's abilities to initiate all of the above nuances to the position that I listed there and/or B. Overconfident in this team's pass protection abilities, which, I think they are given they have only surrendered 12 sacks on the year.
So, listen, I am not going to get into this back and forth tennis match with "my analysis this" and "my analysis that". At the end of the day? We can all be picky and choosy thanks to PFF's metric system. The reality is that, I listen to the radio every day, and I keep hearing a lot of different things from actual football players that see things differently. That's between Jeff Lageman, David Garrard, Leon Searcy and a few other guests, etc.
Not saying there's no merit to some of these slides. I just think, if we're going to be fair and honest? You would have to dig into every single 277 pass attempts he's had this year to determine what the root of the issue is with him offensively. Is it really pass protection? Or, is it his inability to process things faster, make presnap reads accurately, move the pocket correctly, etc.
Is it the high pointing of the football, the issue with him trying to laser beam everything into his receiver's hands, etc?
Anyway. It is what it is. Appreciate the slides.
The speed settings are at zero. No plus, no minus.
The hosting site's resolution may speed them up a touch, but you are seeing something within milliseconds of game speed here.
You've got some ideas in your head about what is going wrong (and they are likely all valid) - but they apparently don't allow for the possibility of quick pressure spoiling plays to be a major factor.
I disagree. No biggie.
No. It's a bit of both. I am completely rational. I just think there needs to be a little bit more factors weighed into this. That's all.
If you're 6th in overall pass attempts, yet, you're tied for the 3rd in overall amount of sacks given up, and, you're clearly in a pass centric offense.
Where do you draw the line from a metric's perspective, team's perspective, offensive line's perspective and Quarterback's perspective? It's one thing if he takes the snap and his lineman get absolutely handled and the guy is on his back.
Saw this a few times with Burrow last year and I saw it recently on the Monday Night Football game where Brissett got absolutely hammered on a whiffed block.
I don't know. It's anybody's guess. It's honestly a combination of a lot of things, as is usually the story when you're 2 - 6 and losing games by one possession. It's like being in a War I guess. Doesn't matter which side you're really on. Each side views themselves as the good guys. No matter what the cost involved.
Cheers man! As always!
(11-02-2022, 11:48 AM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]Going to be nit picky as hell with those three slides, but, is there any reason why he's not sliding up into the pocket? His first instincts seems to reek of "one read, bail".
This is exactly what Lageman was pointing at in particular. He gets happy feet, drifts, bails, etc. He couldn't move up in one of those slides? He had a double team over there on the right side.
Again, not being overly analytical here and I know it's a monumental task to pull up every little slide but he's also in the gun and he should be making his presnap reads there as well, correct? Just trying to spitball here.
I couldn't see the other two images on the quick plays though.
No doubt that's part of the issue, I think because he feels under pressure literally. Having a better pocket sense comes to some QBs naturally, others pick it up with experience. Gabbert, although no pro-bowler seemed to get better at it as he got older. Mahomes always seemed to have it from the get-go. Hopefully, it's just an adjustment period for TLaw and also, we hope the OL improves in the next couple of years.
(11-02-2022, 12:56 PM)MarleyJag Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2022, 11:48 AM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]Going to be nit picky as hell with those three slides, but, is there any reason why he's not sliding up into the pocket? His first instincts seems to reek of "one read, bail".
This is exactly what Lageman was pointing at in particular. He gets happy feet, drifts, bails, etc. He couldn't move up in one of those slides? He had a double team over there on the right side.
Again, not being overly analytical here and I know it's a monumental task to pull up every little slide but he's also in the gun and he should be making his presnap reads there as well, correct? Just trying to spitball here.
I couldn't see the other two images on the quick plays though.
No doubt that's part of the issue, I think because he feels under pressure literally. Having a better pocket sense comes to some QBs naturally, others pick it up with experience. Gabbert, although no pro-bowler seemed to get better at it as he got older. Mahomes always seemed to have it from the get-go. Hopefully, it's just an adjustment period for TLaw and also, we hope the OL improves in the next couple of years.
He's getting a lot of opportunities this year to work on that. For sure. I can respect Pederson. If somebody would have told me last year that this team would have the 6th most pass attempts and yet only be tied for 3rd in sacks by midseason? I would say, you're [BLEEP] crazy. There's no way.
That's why I have a hard time faulting this offensive line. Especially with two newcomers on it. One being a Center in his rookie year and Scherff being newly added yet a voice and presence to respect and look towards when things get rough. I think it's been impressive.
Now, if they were say, 50% win rate in pass protection and Lawrence was around 18th - 20th in overall pass attempts? I would say we have some major issues here to sort out. Clearly, there's a lack of competency over there and clearly we need to improve there.
But, I don't see it that way. At least not this year through eight games. They're getting close though. I think Lawrence is going to eventually get comfortable, settle in, etc. It's exciting to see what's to come. Just hope they can keep building around him. Everybody hypes up Peyton Manning but people forget just how much Bill Polian went out of his way to set him up for success.
Marvin Harrison, Edgerin James, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, various offensive lineman, etc. You have to keep building around that. Even the top flight QB's in this league have "somebody" on an ELITE level bailing them out or absorbing the majority of the defenses' attention.
(11-02-2022, 12:51 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ] (11-02-2022, 12:37 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]The speed settings are at zero. No plus, no minus.
The hosting site's resolution may speed them up a touch, but you are seeing something within milliseconds of game speed here.
You've got some ideas in your head about what is going wrong (and they are likely all valid) - but they apparently don't allow for the possibility of quick pressure spoiling plays to be a major factor.
I disagree. No biggie.
No. It's a bit of both. I am completely rational. I just think there needs to be a little bit more factors weighed into this. That's all.
If you're 6th in overall pass attempts, yet, you're tied for the 3rd in overall amount of sacks given up, and, you're clearly in a pass centric offense.
Where do you draw the line from a metric's perspective, team's perspective, offensive line's perspective and Quarterback's perspective? It's one thing if he takes the snap and his lineman get absolutely handled and the guy is on his back.
Saw this a few times with Burrow last year and I saw it recently on the Monday Night Football game where Brissett got absolutely hammered on a whiffed block.
I don't know. It's anybody's guess. It's honestly a combination of a lot of things, as is usually the story when you're 2 - 6 and losing games by one possession. It's like being in a War I guess. Doesn't matter which side you're really on. Each side views themselves as the good guys. No matter what the cost involved.
Cheers man! As always!
Cheers to you, as always.
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/2wYYlHuEw1UcsJYgAA/giphy.gif)
The stuff I'm watching does also reveal Trevor throwing a little too flat footed at times, reluctant to step up at times, generally picking the wrong guy to throw to at times, and sailing some passes. Those are all happening. I'm not trying to sweep them under the rug.
I've just felt some denial around here about the protection issues, so I'm trying to illustrate it because I am noticing that as often and sometimes more than the other stuff.
Weeks 1-3 I believe Lawrence was making better decisions and getting the ball out quickly. Going into the Philly game he had only been sacked twice and was barely pressured. Since then he's been holding the ball a lot like last year. I think next year we will probably get a good idea where this thing is heading. Assuming the OL gets upgraded, Ridley comes in and possibly another pass catcher in the draft/FA we will finally see if we have a guy or not.
![[Image: list2.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/8PL1P4gr/list2.png)