(12-23-2022, 04:05 PM)scottyg Wrote: [ -> ] (12-23-2022, 01:20 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]If the tacks lose to the tinhorns tomorrow, we can rest players vs the tinhorns.
If they don't - they could still lose to the cowboys on next Thursday night the 29th - allowing us to choose to rest starters on Jan 1.
If tacks win both games - we can't rest anyone.
Simple.
You think the team will actually rest starters in that case? I mean, those slugs currently have a 9 game winning streak over us. Something tells me the team won't want to lay down and let it get to 10.
I think it's a bit doubtful, but if there are 2 or 3 guys that are banged up who are needed at near 100% to close out the playoff clinching win vs the tacks - I would rest them. (assuming the tacks drop one)
(12-23-2022, 04:47 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (12-23-2022, 04:05 PM)scottyg Wrote: [ -> ]You think the team will actually rest starters in that case? I mean, those slugs currently have a 9 game winning streak over us. Something tells me the team won't want to lay down and let it get to 10.
I think it's a bit doubtful, but if there are 2 or 3 guys that are banged up who are needed at near 100% to close out the playoff clinching win vs the tacks - I would rest them. (assuming the tacks drop one)
I agree. If guys like Fatukasi or Travon are borderline then hold them out.
(12-23-2022, 11:18 AM)rfc17 Wrote: [ -> ]A lot. For starters, you need either the Dolphins or Chargers to lose out. Dolphins are probably the most likely looking at both of their schedules. But then you need to make sure the Jets, Patriots, or any other team not making it to 9 wins. The most reasonable scenario I have found is this...
week 16
Dolphins lose to Packers
Patriots lose to Bengals
Jets have already lost to us
week 17
Dolphins lose to Patriots
Jets lose to Seahawks
week 18
Patriots lose to Bills
Dolphins lose to Jets
We'd also need the Raiders, Browns, and Steelers to lose at least one more game over the next 3 weeks. This part of it seems very likely.
All of a sudden this scenario looks more realistic. I thought the Dolphins losing at home to the packers was one of the least likely outcomes. Still don't think it'll happen but don't mind having multiple options
Just be aware OP:
If we don't make the playoffs, I will find where you live, and come and leave a flaming pile of dog crap on your porch for starting this thread.
Go Jags!
(12-25-2022, 05:45 PM)rfc17 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-23-2022, 11:18 AM)rfc17 Wrote: [ -> ]A lot. For starters, you need either the Dolphins or Chargers to lose out. Dolphins are probably the most likely looking at both of their schedules. But then you need to make sure the Jets, Patriots, or any other team not making it to 9 wins. The most reasonable scenario I have found is this...
week 16
Dolphins lose to Packers
Patriots lose to Bengals
Jets have already lost to us
week 17
Dolphins lose to Patriots
Jets lose to Seahawks
week 18
Patriots lose to Bills
Dolphins lose to Jets
We'd also need the Raiders, Browns, and Steelers to lose at least one more game over the next 3 weeks. This part of it seems very likely.
All of a sudden this scenario looks more realistic. I thought the Dolphins losing at home to the packers was one of the least likely outcomes. Still don't think it'll happen but don't mind having multiple options
I still have a hard time seeing anyone (including a pick happy Tua in Miami) losing to the jets moving forward, but we are certainly closer to this than we were yesterday.
(12-25-2022, 06:24 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (12-25-2022, 05:45 PM)rfc17 Wrote: [ -> ]All of a sudden this scenario looks more realistic. I thought the Dolphins losing at home to the packers was one of the least likely outcomes. Still don't think it'll happen but don't mind having multiple options
I still have a hard time seeing anyone (including a pick happy Too in Miami) losing to the jets moving forward, but we are certainly closer to this than we were yesterday.
They are different with their QB and they would be playing to potentially take the wildcard spot if the Jags won.
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(12-23-2022, 11:18 AM)rfc17 Wrote: [ -> ]A lot. For starters, you need either the Dolphins or Chargers to lose out. Dolphins are probably the most likely looking at both of their schedules. But then you need to make sure the Jets, Patriots, or any other team not making it to 9 wins. The most reasonable scenario I have found is this...
week 16
Dolphins lose to Packers
Patriots lose to Bengals
Jets have already lost to us
week 17
Dolphins lose to Patriots
Jets lose to Seahawks
week 18
Patriots lose to Bills
Dolphins lose to Jets
We'd also need the Raiders, Browns, and Steelers to lose at least one more game over the next 3 weeks. This part of it seems very likely.
If the Titans beat the he Cowboys but lose to us in week 18, and the above scenario plays out that might mean the Titans still make it, right? Because we are talking about us as a wild card in the above scenario, if we win then the Titans would in that wild card spot, right? And then wouldn't we have to play them a 3rd time?
I tried a bunch of various scenarios to see if the titans could get a tiebreaker at 8-9 and couldn't find any. Possible I missed one but I think their conference record hurts them in tiebreakers. They may be eliminated from all playoff scenarios other than winning the division.
Forget sneaking in scenarios; I wouldn't want it any other way. Put the division on notice-
Tinhorns: the streak is over
Tacks: the streak is beginning
Clots: screw you
Welcome to the new normal. Deal with it
Not sure why Martineau included a chargers victory in his scenario. Only way the chargers help us get in as a wild card is if they lose out. Their schedule seems easy enough that they should get one more win. At the Colts, home against Rams, at Broncos. But they did choke last year and I could see where they could lose any one of those games individually. hard to imagine them losing all three.
(12-23-2022, 04:23 PM)OG-JAGFAN Wrote: [ -> ]Imo this team has already exceeded expectations. If we make the playoffs its icing on the cake. If we cannot beat the Texas/Titans we do not deserve to be in the post season. It's fun right now.
Agree I had us at like 5 wins with concern about the under. I almost dont want us to win out, cause I think we will be exposed with a harder schedule next year and I think we are 1 and done in playoffs either way. But then again thats how you get good. Glad to be having this convo at end of season and very glad Trevor took a much bigger leap than expected.
Trying to avoid the playoffs is not the right path ha. Keep in mind, once you get in, anything can happen
(12-26-2022, 11:09 AM)rpr52121 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-26-2022, 01:37 AM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/BrentASJax/status/16...7021151233
2nd has higher probability to me. Have a hard time predicting that the Browns will beat the Steelers in week 18.
I don't see the phins losing to the jets - and that will kill all of the wildcard stuff.
(12-26-2022, 10:05 AM)HandsomeRob86 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-23-2022, 04:23 PM)OG-JAGFAN Wrote: [ -> ]Imo this team has already exceeded expectations. If we make the playoffs its icing on the cake. If we cannot beat the Texas/Titans we do not deserve to be in the post season. It's fun right now.
Agree I had us at like 5 wins with concern about the under. I almost dont want us to win out, cause I think we will be exposed with a harder schedule next year and I think we are 1 and done in playoffs either way. But then again thats how you get good. Glad to be having this convo at end of season and very glad Trevor took a much bigger leap than expected.
yeah it doesn't work that way. Schedules for the following year are dependent on division standings from the previous year and at that point it only effects 2 (or 3, not sure with the 17 game schedule) games. The rest of the schedule is pre-set on rotation.
Regardless of whether we win out or drop one, if we finish first in division we'll play the division leaders in the other three divisions. Second place we'd play second place, etc.
(12-26-2022, 11:35 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (12-26-2022, 11:09 AM)rpr52121 Wrote: [ -> ]2nd has higher probability to me. Have a hard time predicting that the Browns will beat the Steelers in week 18.
I don't see the phins losing to the jets - and that will kill all of the wildcard stuff.
I'm hoping Mike White would be healthy enough to play by then.
(12-26-2022, 12:46 PM)rpr52121 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-26-2022, 11:35 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see the phins losing to the jets - and that will kill all of the wildcard stuff.
I'm hoping Mike White would be healthy enough to play by then.
Would definitely help our chances of getting the help we need.
(12-26-2022, 11:35 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (12-26-2022, 11:09 AM)rpr52121 Wrote: [ -> ]2nd has higher probability to me. Have a hard time predicting that the Browns will beat the Steelers in week 18.
I don't see the phins losing to the jets - and that will kill all of the wildcard stuff.
Yeah, I’d feel better about that game if it were in NY. Hopefully by that time the Jets haven’t packed it in…like the Broncos.
(12-26-2022, 10:05 AM)HandsomeRob86 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-23-2022, 04:23 PM)OG-JAGFAN Wrote: [ -> ]Imo this team has already exceeded expectations. If we make the playoffs its icing on the cake. If we cannot beat the Texas/Titans we do not deserve to be in the post season. It's fun right now.
Agree I had us at like 5 wins with concern about the under. I almost dont want us to win out, cause I think we will be exposed with a harder schedule next year and I think we are 1 and done in playoffs either way. But then again thats how you get good. Glad to be having this convo at end of season and very glad Trevor took a much bigger leap than expected.
I disagree.
First, the "first place schedule" is over-rated. It only affects 3 games. 14 of our games will not be affected. For those 3 games, we would be playing the first place team of the division instead of the second place team which may or may not be significant. Keep in mind, our opponents will be based on 2022 records. Just because a team finished first in 2022 doesn't necessarily mean they will be the best team in 2023.
Second, even if we are 1 and done, it is still worth it. I want to watch a playoff game. This fan base deserves it.
Third, we aren't necessarily one and done. We get the first playoff game at home. Right now, we would play Baltimore who we already beat this season The next highest seeded wildcard team is the Chargers who we have also already beaten this year. The second round will be tougher. We currently would have to go on the road against the Bills, but you never know. NFL teams have good and bad days. The Jags could get hot. I'm looking forward to finding out. This is why we watch the games.