(12-25-2022, 10:34 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ] (12-24-2022, 09:19 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]Yes
10 or more wins required to oust wildcard leader
I'm probably missing something, but we don't have to beat out the wild card leader, just the 7th seed or below to make the playoffs via wild card.
But the "easiest" path for us is simply winning the division.
Everything is in our hands.
Even if we lost to the Texans, we could still win the division.
That would not be the case with the wild card.
Yeah, it was hashed out in the thread after the post you've quoted, but we could technically sneak into a wild card spot if the dolphins and/or bolts implode to finish the reg. season.
For that reason - we kinda have to play the tinhorns with all our best weapons in place.
Our best path to the postseason is clinching our division by ousting the tacks in week 18.
And that's the best path by miles and miles.
But - just in case - we have to play the texans tough for that sliver of wild card insurance.
Personally - I think we will rout the tacks in week 18 and all this wild card talk is superfluous.
Best case scenario next week is we get a big lead early then pull our key guys in the 3rd quarter or whenever feasible. I’m not sure I like resting a bunch of guys unless a few are currently playing through pain.
My only concern at this point is that the soothing light at the end of our tunnel is just Derrick Henry coming our way. I don’t feel like that’s the likely end result, but can’t deny the possibility.
Jags have won 3 in a row and the Tacks have lost 5 in a row. Hopefully we are catching them at a good time and we will beat them without much problem. As for next week's game against the Texans, it would be nice to beat them, just on general principle. I'd love to go into the post season with a 5-game winning streak and get to host a playoff game at TIAA Bank Field!
(12-25-2022, 11:14 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]My only concern at this point is that the soothing light at the end of our tunnel is just Derrick Henry coming our way. I don’t feel like that’s the likely end result, but can’t deny the possibility.
By the looks of the tacks yesterday, all the Jags need to do is sell out to limit Henry and contain Willis as a runner. Then let the tacks floundering passing offense make mistakes. They are in a bad place right now.
Jags are banged up, but this is doable. Henry can even have a good game. Just not a 200+ yard banger.
Keep Henry reasonably in check and let Trevor continue to masterfully spread the ball around to his receivers and TEs plus a dose of ETN.
The formula for victory looks simple right now.
I hope next weeks games don't shift it much.
Not gonna lie, being in contention for a playoff spot was far from my mind at the start of the season.
(12-25-2022, 12:48 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (12-25-2022, 11:14 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]My only concern at this point is that the soothing light at the end of our tunnel is just Derrick Henry coming our way. I don’t feel like that’s the likely end result, but can’t deny the possibility.
By the looks of the tacks yesterday, all the Jags need to do is sell out to limit Henry and contain Willis as a runner. Then let the tacks floundering passing offense make mistakes. They are in a bad place right now.
Jags are banged up, but this is doable. Henry can even have a good game. Just not a 200+ yard banger.
Keep Henry reasonably in check and let Trevor continue to masterfully spread the ball around to his receivers and TEs plus a dose of ETN.
The formulator victory looks simple right now.
I hope next weeks games don't shift it much.
Tennessee has not scored more than 17 points in a game QB by Willis and has not scored more than 27 points in any game all season.
Key is to score. As long as they do that, they will eclipse 27 points easy and the rest won't matter.
(12-25-2022, 12:50 PM)WingerDinger Wrote: [ -> ]Not gonna lie, being in contention for a playoff spot was far from my mind at the start of the season.
Prior to the season I thought it was possible although not probable based on the state of the division. I'd say now though that almost everyone feels like the Pederson/Lawrence combo actually has us ahead of schedule. Difficult to know what the other teams will do over the next few years but it seems likely the Jags will have an extended run of AFC South titles going forward as long as that combo remains in place.
I was just hoping for 5 wins and to see Trevor Lawrence take the next step. What we've gotten this season, man... What a great ride!
(12-25-2022, 12:57 PM)rpr52121 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-25-2022, 12:48 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]By the looks of the tacks yesterday, all the Jags need to do is sell out to limit Henry and contain Willis as a runner. Then let the tacks floundering passing offense make mistakes. They are in a bad place right now.
Jags are banged up, but this is doable. Henry can even have a good game. Just not a 200+ yard banger.
Keep Henry reasonably in check and let Trevor continue to masterfully spread the ball around to his receivers and TEs plus a dose of ETN.
The formulator victory looks simple right now.
I hope next weeks games don't shift it much.
Tennessee has not scored more than 17 points in a game QB by Willis and has not scored more than 27 points in any game all season.
Key is to score. As long as they do that, they will eclipse 27 points easy and the rest won't matter.
Yeah - good point - it is doubtful they are able to hang more than 20 points on any NFL defense right now.
Nonetheless - 3 or 4 missed tackles on Henry - a bit of bad contain on the young QB - a couple of missed coverages by LBs on that young TE - and they could keep themselves in the game.
As alluded to in my previous post, I do agree we should keep our foot on the gas offensively, and I'm very glad we finally have a coach who values dong so.
(12-25-2022, 01:17 PM)carp8dm Wrote: [ -> ]I was just hoping for 5 wins and to see Trevor Lawrence take the next step. What we've gotten this season, man... What a great ride!
Mine was 7 wins minimum, but these cats are like screw that, “Let’s go win the division” They have what it takes and THAT is not only new for this team, but exciting as hell…
DUUUUuuuVAL
(12-25-2022, 11:14 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]My only concern at this point is that the soothing light at the end of our tunnel is just Derrick Henry coming our way. I don’t feel like that’s the likely end result, but can’t deny the possibility.
Nice Metallica song reference.
He was trucking texan defenders all day yesterday, especially #5. I haven't look him up to see who he is but he couldn't stop Henry for nothing. He did get another ball stripped though. Three in his last three games I think they said. If we can do that again to him and send our biggest guy against texans #5 to keep him busy I think we'll do alright.
I'm not sure about the texans. I think the December version of the Jags can definitely beat them but they do seem to always have our number regardless of their record. But we
finally spanked the titans in their own house after 8 miserable years of defeat there so there's no reason why we can't we beat the texans.
(12-25-2022, 01:38 PM)Ronster Wrote: [ -> ] (12-25-2022, 01:17 PM)carp8dm Wrote: [ -> ]I was just hoping for 5 wins and to see Trevor Lawrence take the next step. What we've gotten this season, man... What a great ride!
Mine was 7 wins minimum, but these cats are like screw that, “Let’s go win the division” They have what it takes and THAT is not only new for this team, but exciting as hell…
DUUUUuuuVAL
I'm beside myself with how great this season has turned out!! I'm honestly on cloud 9 with this season. It's been such a great ride. I think the only better ride I can remember is 2007/2008 playoff run
1 play at the time, 1 game at the time. No need to rest starters, just go play and keep this thing rollin’.
(12-24-2022, 09:23 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (12-24-2022, 09:20 PM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]We can still make the Wild Card, but we'd need A LOT of help.
Got to focus on the Division.
I think we win the division, but the ravens have ten wins and are second in the AFC North behind Cincy
Don't see how we'd supplant them with 9 wins.
Even weirder, if we have 9 wins, then we would have won out and won the division anyway. We can't get a wildcard bid without losing to the tacks in week 18, so LOTS of help would be required for it. Probably a better chance of wining the Lottery.
(12-25-2022, 01:17 PM)carp8dm Wrote: [ -> ]I was just hoping for 5 wins and to see Trevor Lawrence take the next step. What we've gotten this season, man... What a great ride!
I was hoping for closer to 7 wins, but this season was always about developing Trevor for me. I allowed myself to get sucked in and think maybe something special was brewing when we blew out the Chargers and Colts in consecutive weeks, but decided the team simply was not ready to compete after losing to the texans - helped me deal more favorably with that 5 game losing streak when I quit caring about wins and losses.
Welp, I'm back to caring about W/L again, and it will suck [BLEEP] if we lose to the tacks to close the season. hell, even though the game is meaningless from a division standing point of view, I would hate to lose to Houston next week and extend our losing streak to those sorry crapsacks.
Miami did lose, as well as the Pats, so things are not impossible regarding the wildcard. Would be very unlikely, but is a bit more likely than when the weekend began.
(12-25-2022, 09:31 PM)Newton Wrote: [ -> ]Miami did lose, as well as the Pats, so things are not impossible regarding the wildcard. Would be very unlikely, but is a bit more likely than when the weekend began.
It was unlikely we would be where we are at this point in the season after five losses in a row and a bunch of misfires on all three sides of the ball. Yet here we are.
I believe.
This is the most fun season I have had being a Jags fan in a long time. Yes 5 straight losses was not fun of course, but the way we have fought back and the togetherness and trust within this team is lovely and fun to see. Job not done yet, 2 huge games coming up, but again, been fun. My expectations coming into this season with Pederson was to get a few more wins than last season and build some confidence to be even better next season, not just picking high in the draft again and hoping we will be. Very happy with how it has gone and now boys let's go win this division!
Future playoffs are never promised or assumed. Lets get it now!