(01-01-2023, 12:16 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-01-2023, 10:15 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]While I will nt get into the comparison between Jaguars' GMs, I agree with the analysis that it's too early to gauge how well Baalke has done, though you could argue that simply by virtue of drafting Trevor Lawrence, he's already a success. But, since this team is a year removed from a league wrst 3-14 record, and two removed from 1-15. the presumption this is not a complete team from a talent standpoint seems safe.
That said, based on where we are right now, and assuming we win the last two games of the regular season and ultimately the division, how many new starters do we need going into the next season to be a Super Bowl team? Based on what has been discussed in this thread, OL (2-RT to perhaps replace Jawaan Taylor-depending on how the team feels about Walker Little- and an upgrade at LG), Edge rusher and CB 1-2) are safe assumptions. So maybe 3-5 quality starters to upgrade the positions listed? f we aree unable to retain Engram, that's another. How likely is that, especially given our lower draft position? Baalke and company are going to have to hit big on some mid round draft picks to reach that 3-5 quality starters level. That doesn't even get into depth.
How likely is it to expect that much positive impact in one draft?
Before answering your question regarding new starters, I will make the following assumptions:
1. Darious Williams is kept at the 2nd corner position where he has played well as of late. He was very solid with the Rams ranking 4th in 2020 for cornerbacks according to PFF.
2. Evan Engram is re-signed during the off-season being rewarded with a multi-year deal.
3. Walker Little is promoted to starting right tackle and will prove to be worth the 2nd round pick the Jaguars used to get him.
4. Devin Lloyd plays consistently at the level he demonstrated early this season at linebacker.
Based on these 4 positions being secure, these are the new starting positions needed for 2023:
1. Right tackle: Walker Little moves into this spot. No need to draft a starter at this position.
2. Edge rusher: Caldwell moves Trevon Walker to his more natural position on the defensive line. Chaisson is cut in the off-season. An Edge should be drafted in rounds 1 or 2 to fill this spot assuming the team remains utilizing a 3-4 as it's primary defense. The team is fortunate that there will be at least a couple of excellent options when they pick somewhere in the 20's including Jared Verse and B.J. Ojulari.
3. Left guard: Ben Bartch has yet to show he can be a reliable starter so an upgrade is necessary. A solid replacement can be found in rounds 2 or 3 of the 2023 draft. Andrew Vorhees from USC would be a great pick since he has also played some tackle and is very experienced. If he is gone, Cooper Beebe or Jarrett Patterson would be potential selections in rounds 2 or 3.
4. Nickel-back: There is a deep group of corners/nickels in this draft and an immediate starter can be found in rounds 2 or 3. Ideally, rounds 2 and 3 would be used to take guard and nickel with the best value player given priority in round 2.
These are the 4 positions requiring new starters and it is very possible it can be achieved through the 2023 draft, as indicated above. The defensive line needs to be strengthened to some degree since Smoot, Key and possibly Robertson-Harris will be gone. Ideally, they get Robertson-Harris to sign a "reasonable" deal since he has performed well as a Jaguar. If they can't afford to do this, they will likely need to add at least one rotational player on the line to support Fatukasi, Walker and Hamilton.
If all of this can be achieved for 2023, could the Jaguars contend for the Super Bowl? That will depend on Lawrence's continued growth and the uncertainty of injuries. However, who would have predicted this team would have a better than average chance of making the 2022-23 playoffs following a combined 4 wins in 2020 and 2021? When you have an elite quarterback and the perfect guy to coach him, winning division titles and contending for Super Bowls is not an unrealistic expectation to have.
I might be a bit too much of a homer, and maybe I'm just really high on the fact that we look so good...
But I think our Secondary looks OK for another year... Tyson Campbell, Montaric Brown, Darius Williams, Chris Claybrooks, hell with Trey Herndon in there as back up along with Trevaugn Cambell? I think of the 3 corps of the defense, the secondary seems to be the one with depth and talent that we can ride into 2023.
Now, let's consider the total collapse in October. That month, our entire team was exposed. Many focused on Lawrence. But many of us also started calling for our DC's ouster. I, was one of them. The secondary look lost. The LB'ers look lost. And our D-Line was playing on roller blades. All that to say that it wasn't just the secondary that was the problem in October. However, there were issues in the secondary that looked really bad. Tyson Cambell was the only shining light. But since October, the entire secondary has looked very good. It's possible that this unit isn't as talent voided as we thought. And it's possible Caldwell's system is beginning to take hold on the players.
I agree that Key and Smoot are going to be an issue as Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs). Smoot of course, tore his achilles. He won't be even ready to play untill November at the earliest. And Key, who I really like is a UFA that will probably try to test the market. I hope we can sign him, but we don't have the cap space to pay him unless he takes a team friendly deal. But Robertson Harris is under contract, we may cut him, actually instead of resigning him depending on what we decide to do.
And that's the thing. If you look at the depth chart, we run a hybrid 3-4. And we have lots of issues that need to be addressed regarding DE "edge" rushers versus DT type edge setters... The jaguars.com depth chart shows key in multiple positions. He's very valuable in terms of depth and talent. Safe to say we have a lot of hybrid type talent that can be moved around in a 3-4.
I think the point is that if you want to shore up the D, I don't think it's the Secondary you focus on in this off-season.
Personally, I think the primary focus should be the O-Line. Cam Robinson is out at LT, Taylor is UFA as RT... The entire success of this team is because of Trevor Lawrence. Walker Little looks good and will fix one of the tackles. But we need to fix the other tackle... Cam wasn't all that great to begin with... Dude is more inconsistent that my 12 year old daughter determining what she's going to wear out to go grab some ice cream at Baskin Robbins. And Taylor is probably going to be bought out by another team that has unlimted cap space.
So assume Little is one Tackle, Cam may or may not be back by November, and Taylor is gone. So we now have major issues on the O-Line. The one group that protects our QB. You gotta focus on the O-Line this draft. You gotta get at least 1 starter and then a couple depth... Draft O-Line... Protect the next 20 years.
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