(01-03-2023, 01:25 PM)carp8dm Wrote: [ -> ] (01-01-2023, 12:16 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: [ -> ]Before answering your question regarding new starters, I will make the following assumptions:
1. Darious Williams is kept at the 2nd corner position where he has played well as of late. He was very solid with the Rams ranking 4th in 2020 for cornerbacks according to PFF.
2. Evan Engram is re-signed during the off-season being rewarded with a multi-year deal.
3. Walker Little is promoted to starting right tackle and will prove to be worth the 2nd round pick the Jaguars used to get him.
4. Devin Lloyd plays consistently at the level he demonstrated early this season at linebacker.
Based on these 4 positions being secure, these are the new starting positions needed for 2023:
1. Right tackle: Walker Little moves into this spot. No need to draft a starter at this position.
2. Edge rusher: Caldwell moves Trevon Walker to his more natural position on the defensive line. Chaisson is cut in the off-season. An Edge should be drafted in rounds 1 or 2 to fill this spot assuming the team remains utilizing a 3-4 as it's primary defense. The team is fortunate that there will be at least a couple of excellent options when they pick somewhere in the 20's including Jared Verse and B.J. Ojulari.
3. Left guard: Ben Bartch has yet to show he can be a reliable starter so an upgrade is necessary. A solid replacement can be found in rounds 2 or 3 of the 2023 draft. Andrew Vorhees from USC would be a great pick since he has also played some tackle and is very experienced. If he is gone, Cooper Beebe or Jarrett Patterson would be potential selections in rounds 2 or 3.
4. Nickel-back: There is a deep group of corners/nickels in this draft and an immediate starter can be found in rounds 2 or 3. Ideally, rounds 2 and 3 would be used to take guard and nickel with the best value player given priority in round 2.
These are the 4 positions requiring new starters and it is very possible it can be achieved through the 2023 draft, as indicated above. The defensive line needs to be strengthened to some degree since Smoot, Key and possibly Robertson-Harris will be gone. Ideally, they get Robertson-Harris to sign a "reasonable" deal since he has performed well as a Jaguar. If they can't afford to do this, they will likely need to add at least one rotational player on the line to support Fatukasi, Walker and Hamilton.
If all of this can be achieved for 2023, could the Jaguars contend for the Super Bowl? That will depend on Lawrence's continued growth and the uncertainty of injuries. However, who would have predicted this team would have a better than average chance of making the 2022-23 playoffs following a combined 4 wins in 2020 and 2021? When you have an elite quarterback and the perfect guy to coach him, winning division titles and contending for Super Bowls is not an unrealistic expectation to have.
I might be a bit too much of a homer, and maybe I'm just really high on the fact that we look so good...
But I think our Secondary looks OK for another year... Tyson Campbell, Montaric Brown, Darius Williams, Chris Claybrooks, hell with Trey Herndon in there as back up along with Trevaugn Cambell? I think of the 3 corps of the defense, the secondary seems to be the one with depth and talent that we can ride into 2023.
Now, let's consider the total collapse in October. That month, our entire team was exposed. Many focused on Lawrence. But many of us also started calling for our DC's ouster. I, was one of them. The secondary look lost. The LB'ers look lost. And our D-Line was playing on roller blades. All that to say that it wasn't just the secondary that was the problem in October. However, there were issues in the secondary that looked really bad. Tyson Cambell was the only shining light. But since October, the entire secondary has looked very good. It's possible that this unit isn't as talent voided as we thought. And it's possible Caldwell's system is beginning to take hold on the players.
I agree that Key and Smoot are going to be an issue as Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs). Smoot of course, tore his achilles. He won't be even ready to play untill November at the earliest. And Key, who I really like is a UFA that will probably try to test the market. I hope we can sign him, but we don't have the cap space to pay him unless he takes a team friendly deal. But Robertson Harris is under contract, we may cut him, actually instead of resigning him depending on what we decide to do.
And that's the thing. If you look at the depth chart, we run a hybrid 3-4. And we have lots of issues that need to be addressed regarding DE "edge" rushers versus DT type edge setters... The jaguars.com depth chart shows key in multiple positions. He's very valuable in terms of depth and talent. Safe to say we have a lot of hybrid type talent that can be moved around in a 3-4.
I think the point is that if you want to shore up the D, I don't think it's the Secondary you focus on in this off-season.
Personally, I think the primary focus should be the O-Line. Cam Robinson is out at LT, Taylor is UFA as RT... The entire success of this team is because of Trevor Lawrence. Walker Little looks good and will fix one of the tackles. But we need to fix the other tackle... Cam wasn't all that great to begin with... Dude is more inconsistent that my 12 year old daughter determining what she's going to wear out to go grab some ice cream at Baskin Robbins. And Taylor is probably going to be bought out by another team that has unlimted cap space.
So assume Little is one Tackle, Cam may or may not be back by November, and Taylor is gone. So we now have major issues on the O-Line. The one group that protects our QB. You gotta focus on the O-Line this draft. You gotta get at least 1 starter and then a couple depth... Draft O-Line... Protect the next 20 years.
I think we need at least one more quality corner. Those guys you mentioned are fine for depth as long as we never need them to play anything other than special teams - otherwise we're screwed. Maybe they can develop with a year of experience under their belts.
A disrupter on the IDL would be my favorite target though. Would love it if we could pick up someone who could collapse the pocket from the inside - could make every player on the defense better, particularly in passing situations, secondary included. And yeah, I like Key as well and hope we can find common ground to bring him back.
(01-03-2023, 01:49 PM)scottyg Wrote: [ -> ] (01-03-2023, 01:25 PM)carp8dm Wrote: [ -> ]I might be a bit too much of a homer, and maybe I'm just really high on the fact that we look so good...
But I think our Secondary looks OK for another year... Tyson Campbell, Montaric Brown, Darius Williams, Chris Claybrooks, hell with Trey Herndon in there as back up along with Trevaugn Cambell? I think of the 3 corps of the defense, the secondary seems to be the one with depth and talent that we can ride into 2023.
Now, let's consider the total collapse in October. That month, our entire team was exposed. Many focused on Lawrence. But many of us also started calling for our DC's ouster. I, was one of them. The secondary look lost. The LB'ers look lost. And our D-Line was playing on roller blades. All that to say that it wasn't just the secondary that was the problem in October. However, there were issues in the secondary that looked really bad. Tyson Cambell was the only shining light. But since October, the entire secondary has looked very good. It's possible that this unit isn't as talent voided as we thought. And it's possible Caldwell's system is beginning to take hold on the players.
I agree that Key and Smoot are going to be an issue as Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs). Smoot of course, tore his achilles. He won't be even ready to play untill November at the earliest. And Key, who I really like is a UFA that will probably try to test the market. I hope we can sign him, but we don't have the cap space to pay him unless he takes a team friendly deal. But Robertson Harris is under contract, we may cut him, actually instead of resigning him depending on what we decide to do.
And that's the thing. If you look at the depth chart, we run a hybrid 3-4. And we have lots of issues that need to be addressed regarding DE "edge" rushers versus DT type edge setters... The jaguars.com depth chart shows key in multiple positions. He's very valuable in terms of depth and talent. Safe to say we have a lot of hybrid type talent that can be moved around in a 3-4.
I think the point is that if you want to shore up the D, I don't think it's the Secondary you focus on in this off-season.
Personally, I think the primary focus should be the O-Line. Cam Robinson is out at LT, Taylor is UFA as RT... The entire success of this team is because of Trevor Lawrence. Walker Little looks good and will fix one of the tackles. But we need to fix the other tackle... Cam wasn't all that great to begin with... Dude is more inconsistent that my 12 year old daughter determining what she's going to wear out to go grab some ice cream at Baskin Robbins. And Taylor is probably going to be bought out by another team that has unlimted cap space.
So assume Little is one Tackle, Cam may or may not be back by November, and Taylor is gone. So we now have major issues on the O-Line. The one group that protects our QB. You gotta focus on the O-Line this draft. You gotta get at least 1 starter and then a couple depth... Draft O-Line... Protect the next 20 years.
I think we need at least one more quality corner. Those guys you mentioned are fine for depth as long as we never need them to play anything other than special teams - otherwise we're screwed. Maybe they can develop with a year of experience under their belts.
A disrupter on the IDL would be my favorite target though. Would love it if we could pick up someone who could collapse the pocket from the inside - could make every player on the defense better, particularly in passing situations, secondary included. And yeah, I like Key as well and hope we can find common ground to bring him back.
But what if we put Walker into the IDL? Then we could look for more tweeners that can be used on the Edge as rushers or setters. If Caldwell stays as DC, let him start making more decisions on what type of players he wants at that tweener position. I think he's like the freedom to move players around given down and distance. You can tell that's what he likes based on how certain players revolve round the D Line or LB positions.
Look at Gotsis, Smoot (pre-Injury), Key, Llyod, Muma, and even Fatukasi. Caldwell moved those guys around alot into different spots throughout the year. Based on injuries things have had to settle down and become more solidified. But, the fact that these guys all had to be in different spots and protect different gaps, etc, they are better for it.
Maybe that's what Caldwell is looking for. Getting a squad of players that can be interchangeable at the front 7...
Again, maybe I'm just being very optomistic about how good we look. But I'm beginning to see the concept Caldwell is trying to teach his LBs and Linemen.
(01-03-2023, 02:54 PM)carp8dm Wrote: [ -> ] (01-03-2023, 01:49 PM)scottyg Wrote: [ -> ]I think we need at least one more quality corner. Those guys you mentioned are fine for depth as long as we never need them to play anything other than special teams - otherwise we're screwed. Maybe they can develop with a year of experience under their belts.
A disrupter on the IDL would be my favorite target though. Would love it if we could pick up someone who could collapse the pocket from the inside - could make every player on the defense better, particularly in passing situations, secondary included. And yeah, I like Key as well and hope we can find common ground to bring him back.
But what if we put Walker into the IDL? Then we could look for more tweeners that can be used on the Edge as rushers or setters. If Caldwell stays as DC, let him start making more decisions on what type of players he wants at that tweener position. I think he's like the freedom to move players around given down and distance. You can tell that's what he likes based on how certain players revolve round the D Line or LB positions.
Look at Gotsis, Smoot (pre-Injury), Key, Llyod, Muma, and even Fatukasi. Caldwell moved those guys around alot into different spots throughout the year. Based on injuries things have had to settle down and become more solidified. But, the fact that these guys all had to be in different spots and protect different gaps, etc, they are better for it.
Maybe that's what Caldwell is looking for. Getting a squad of players that can be interchangeable at the front 7...
Again, maybe I'm just being very optomistic about how good we look. But I'm beginning to see the concept Caldwell is trying to teach his LBs and Linemen.
Th optimism is great. Nothing wrong with it.
But gambling on not adding an upgrade at nickel corner would be a very unwise move.
The position has been picked apart by every quality QB we have faced this season - but recency bias is precluding you from that perspective. Because we have recently played back up QBs and linemen.
And the AFC is currently LOADED with QBs who would pick on the Herndon-types we attempt to field there. There is no path through the post season with that weakness left unattended by a quality defender.
I have some faith that Caldwell is making progress too, but I think we need a real NB and stud interior pass rusher to man the spot when you aren't rotating Walker or Key. Walker was always intended to float between 3 tech and OLB and I'm sure he will next year, but that doesn't fill the rotation enough and doesn't give you enough options.
We don't know which journeyman will be back and we there are two 3 tech spots to man opposite the Nose Tackle in 3-4 looks.
Gotta have the bodies, and gotta have one that blows up pockets more than the current guys have done vs healthy O-Lines.
(01-03-2023, 03:12 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (01-03-2023, 02:54 PM)carp8dm Wrote: [ -> ]But what if we put Walker into the IDL? Then we could look for more tweeners that can be used on the Edge as rushers or setters. If Caldwell stays as DC, let him start making more decisions on what type of players he wants at that tweener position. I think he's like the freedom to move players around given down and distance. You can tell that's what he likes based on how certain players revolve round the D Line or LB positions.
Look at Gotsis, Smoot (pre-Injury), Key, Llyod, Muma, and even Fatukasi. Caldwell moved those guys around alot into different spots throughout the year. Based on injuries things have had to settle down and become more solidified. But, the fact that these guys all had to be in different spots and protect different gaps, etc, they are better for it.
Maybe that's what Caldwell is looking for. Getting a squad of players that can be interchangeable at the front 7...
Again, maybe I'm just being very optomistic about how good we look. But I'm beginning to see the concept Caldwell is trying to teach his LBs and Linemen.
Th optimism is great. Nothing wrong with it.
But gambling on not adding an upgrade at nickel corner would be a very unwise move.
The position has been picked apart by every quality QB we have faced this season - but recency bias is precluding you from that perspective. Because we have recently played back up QBs and linemen.
And the AFC is currently LOADED with QBs who would pick on the Herndon-types we attempt to field there. There is no path through the post season with that weakness left unattended by a quality defender.
I have some faith that Caldwell is making progress too, but I think we need a real NB and stud interior pass rusher to man the spot when you aren't rotating Walker or Key. Walker was always intended to float between 3 tech and OLB and I'm sure he will next year, but that doesn't fill the rotation enough and doesn't give you enough options.
We don't know which journeyman will be back and we there are two 3 tech spots to man opposite the Nose Tackle in 3-4 looks.
Gotta have the bodies, and gotta have one that blows up pockets more than the current guys have done vs healthy O-Lines.
Not disagreeing with anything you said...but I've been wrestling with the CB/NB issue.
If we draft a CB high (1st or 2nd rounds), who becomes the NB?
Let's say we took Porter in the first round.
Williams works best outside, but I think he's a bit undersized and might be at a disadvantage going up against a prototype X.
Campbell has developed nicely at RCB.
Do you draft a Nickel in the first? I was open to the possibility a few years back (2017) but the circumstances are a little different now.
Furthermore, most slot WRs are smaller guys. Can a guy like Porter turn and go with them especially when they have the ability to play off the LOS and avoid the jam?
(01-04-2023, 11:14 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ] (01-03-2023, 03:12 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]Th optimism is great. Nothing wrong with it.
But gambling on not adding an upgrade at nickel corner would be a very unwise move.
The position has been picked apart by every quality QB we have faced this season - but recency bias is precluding you from that perspective. Because we have recently played back up QBs and linemen.
And the AFC is currently LOADED with QBs who would pick on the Herndon-types we attempt to field there. There is no path through the post season with that weakness left unattended by a quality defender.
I have some faith that Caldwell is making progress too, but I think we need a real NB and stud interior pass rusher to man the spot when you aren't rotating Walker or Key. Walker was always intended to float between 3 tech and OLB and I'm sure he will next year, but that doesn't fill the rotation enough and doesn't give you enough options.
We don't know which journeyman will be back and we there are two 3 tech spots to man opposite the Nose Tackle in 3-4 looks.
Gotta have the bodies, and gotta have one that blows up pockets more than the current guys have done vs healthy O-Lines.
Not disagreeing with anything you said...but I've been wrestling with the CB/NB issue.
If we draft a CB high (1st or 2nd rounds), who becomes the NB?
Let's say we took Porter in the first round.
Williams works best outside, but I think he's a bit undersized and might be at a disadvantage going up against a prototype X.
Campbell has developed nicely at RCB.
Do you draft a Nickel in the first? I was open to the possibility a few years back (2017) but the circumstances are a little different now.
Furthermore, most slot WRs are smaller guys. Can a guy like Porter turn and go with them especially when they have the ability to play off the LOS and avoid the jam?
I think the NB position is evolving right along with the slot receiver position. You and I have agreed on the slot WR position evolving in past convo. Most recent and obvious example for us was CeeDee Lamb taking 60% of his snaps from the slot a few weeks ago. Tre Herndon gave up a 94% completion rate to him in that game. (180 yards)
We will see that type of strategy more and more moving forward.
Your modern slot DB needs to be able to cover on that level.
The primary difference to me isn't about body type or the traditional traits of slot corners as we've known them, but simply a gifted cover corner whose skill set is not largely titled toward playing boundary technique on the outside. He must be smart and diverse.
The staff has to identify a DB who is physical enough to disrupt a TE route at the LOS and come up in run support, but smart enough to study an opponent's option routes and anticipate them, as well as know when to not be handsy - since the field judge is often right behind him.
Now - Caldwell has shown a willingness to run big nickel packages quite a bit, so they may seek a more finesse cover guy to man the spot and switch personnel when they want to focus on defending the run or even bumping a TE off of routes.
So there are different traits they may address when filling this position - instead of trying to find a magic unicorn that's half honey-badger/half Deion Sanders.
We don't yet know what the mistake of putting Williams in the slot this year has done to this staff's outlook on how they'll address it next year. They may radically change course, they may not.
Will be very interesting to watch what they do here.
I have not studied this year's prospects yet, so I can't yet comment which may be better suited to the position.
(01-04-2023, 11:38 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (01-04-2023, 11:14 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]Not disagreeing with anything you said...but I've been wrestling with the CB/NB issue.
If we draft a CB high (1st or 2nd rounds), who becomes the NB?
Let's say we took Porter in the first round.
Williams works best outside, but I think he's a bit undersized and might be at a disadvantage going up against a prototype X.
Campbell has developed nicely at RCB.
Do you draft a Nickel in the first? I was open to the possibility a few years back (2017) but the circumstances are a little different now.
Furthermore, most slot WRs are smaller guys. Can a guy like Porter turn and go with them especially when they have the ability to play off the LOS and avoid the jam?
I think the NB position is evolving right along with the slot receiver position. You and I have agreed on the slot WR position evolving in past convo. Most recent and obvious example for us was CeeDee Lamb taking 60% of his snaps from the slot a few weeks ago. Tre Herndon gave up a 94% completion rate to him in that game. (180 yards)
We will see that type of strategy more and more moving forward.
Your modern slot DB needs to be able to cover on that level.
The primary difference to me isn't about body type or the traditional traits of slot corners as we've known them, but simply a gifted cover corner whose skill set is not largely titled toward playing boundary technique on the outside. He must be smart and diverse.
The staff has to identify a DB who is physical enough to disrupt a TE route at the LOS and come up in run support, but smart enough to study an opponent's option routes and anticipate them, as well as know when to not be handsy - since the field judge is often right behind him.
Now - Caldwell has shown a willingness to run big nickel packages quite a bit, so they may seek a more finesse cover guy to man the spot and switch personnel when they want to focus on defending the run.
So there are different traits they may address when filling this position - instead of trying to find a magic unicorn that's half honey-badger/half Deion Sanders.
We don't yet know what the mistake of putting Williams in the slot this year has done to this staff's outlook on how they'll address it next year. They may radically change course, they may not.
Will be very interesting to watch what they do here.
Good point on the evolution of the slot. Bigger WRs have been known to play slot, whether regularly or situationally.
As long as we hit on those picks, I'll be okay.
All you guys are making good points. And I think I am being a prisoner of the moment regarding our CB/NB position.
But with that said... We only have so many draft picks that we can use. For me, I think I'd prioritize O-Line over CB/NB...
From there, it would be hard to figure which is more important a good secondary coverage guy or getting a pass rushing specialist...
It appears that the greatest needs for next season (in any order) are pass rusher, offensive line and corner/nickel. Interior defensive line will also need to be addressed. There will likely be a very good player from one of these positions who falls to the Jaguars in round 1. Cornerback appears to be the the deepest position with potential starters available through the 3rd round. The post-season process (combine, team visits, etc) will certainly alter the rankings of individual players, but as we stand now the Jaguars should be in a perfect spot picking in the 20's where need and value come together. The 1st two days of the draft (picking in early 20's after beating the Titans) might look something like this:
Rd. 1: Edge rusher ( Verse, Foskey, Ojulari, Wilson) - At least one of these will be available. Move Walker to defensive end and you've upgraded 2 positions.
Rd. 2: Offensive line:- Interior of the line needs upgrade. Andrew Vorhees fits here and he has also had experience at tackle.
Rd. 3: Corner/nickel: A starting nickel can be found here. Darious Williams' improvement at corner allows the team to wait until round 3 for this position.
The team has two 4th round picks on day 3 and I'd expect them to take a run-stuffer with one of these. Would it shock me if they go in a totally different direction and take someone like Michael Mayer in the first round? If someone like this falls and the team has them rated as a top 10 player in this draft class nobody could fault them for such a pick.
"WR Christian Kirk
WR Zay Jones
WR Calvin Ridley (trade)
TE Evan Engram
G Brandon Scherff
DT Foley Fatukasi
LB Oluakon
SS Rayshawn Jenkins
CB Darious Williams"
After more consideration, I remembered...
Cam Robinson's deal was a 3 year deal signed this year, which means it expires after the 2025 season. Walker Little's rokie deal was a 4 year deal which expires after the 2024 season.
Forget the defense for the moment. The bulk of the offense will be gone by the time Trevor's up for a new deal (assuming we wait for season 5 to give him a new deal). Question is do we draft heavily on offense a year or so ahead of time so that we won't have a bunch of rookies coming in at once?
(01-07-2023, 12:32 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]"WR Christian Kirk
WR Zay Jones
WR Calvin Ridley (trade)
TE Evan Engram
G Brandon Scherff
DT Foley Fatukasi
LB Oluakon
SS Rayshawn Jenkins
CB Darious Williams"
After more consideration, I remembered...
Cam Robinson's deal was a 3 year deal signed this year, which means it expires after the 2025 season. Walker Little's rokie deal was a 4 year deal which expires after the 2024 season.
Forget the defense for the moment. The bulk of the offense will be gone by the time Trevor's up for a new deal (assuming we wait for season 5 to give him a new deal). Question is do we draft heavily on offense a year or so ahead of time so that we won't have a bunch of rookies coming in at once?
I'd not be surprised if they don't wait that long, but there are a few ways it could play out.
They will have to draft offense in 2023 and 2024 while still finding a nickel and a pass rusher.
These next two offseason are really big for this front office if they want this window to have any longevity.
Man do I wish I could have been a fly on the wall when Marv and Urbs had their "discussion" last year. Would love to know what Marv really said to him LOL. You know it was good.
What a difference REAL coaching actually makes.
https://twitter.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1...3207122945
