This is the time of year many football fans like me hate. There's no football happening. Mini camps are over. Training camps are about a month away from opening.
Aside from the occasional signing of a vet looking to catch on with a team before training camp, or the occasional arrest/suspension of a player, there is typically very little football related news to satisfy the football withdrawal most of us die hard football fans are enduring.
Basically the only things to mitigate the cravings during this time are internet clips, the annual preseason football mags, and message boards like this one.
Understanding this is a beyond herculean task akin to bailing out the Titanic with a coffee mug, here is one of my attempts to take a little of the sting of football withdrawal by trying to stimulate discussion.
The following is a questionnaire/survey that raises issues and questions going into training camp. As always, your thoughts and analysis are welcome.
1. Quarterback-Under the guidance of Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence made considerable strides from his rookie year struggle, more than doubling his TDs and reducing his INTs by half, and tripling the team's win total from 3 in his rookie year to 9 wins, a divisional title a win in the playoffs and divisional round appearance. For the first time since his college days, he will be in the same offense in back to back years. Question: How much improvement, if any, do you see from Trevor Lawrence this year?
2. Running back-Travis Etienne rebounded from a lis franc injury that kept him sidelined the entire 2021 season to rush for over 1000 yards last year, once he took over the starting RB duties from James Robinson, who was traded away to the Jets. Robinson was replaced by JaMycal Hasty, who gave the team some decent reps last year, including a long TD run against the Colts. The Jaguars also drafted Ole Miss RB Snoop Connor last year. This year, Baalke and Pederson added RB D' Ernest Johnson, a free agent who played in a talented and crowded Cleveland backfield, and 3rd round draft pick Tank Bigsby out of Auburn.
Question: How will the RB postion shake itself out? How many do you expect them to keep? Who is/are the odd man/men out?
Sub question: The Jaguars final draft pick-whose name escapes me at the moment (apologies to him)-is envisioned as a FB. Does he make the final 53 man roster?
3. Wide Receiver: Despite a ton of criticism for the signings of Zay Jones and Christian Kirk,both players were instrumental in Trevor Lawrence's ascent to near elite status, silencing those critics. (Full disclosure: I had my share of doubts about the signings. I heartily and gladly eat crow. Midway through last year, Baalke and Pederson traded for Falcons' WR Calvin Ridley, who was serving a year long suspension for violating the league's policy on gambling. This was following a half year sabbatical he took for reported mental health issues. By all accounts, Ridley has looked like his pre suspension self in mincamps and OTAs. But it's rare that a player can be out for a year or more, return to action and play at or near the level he played pre absence. (Hall of Fame RB John Riggins is the most notable example the leaps to mind).
Question: What do you expect from the receiving corps as a whole this year and from Ridley in particular?
Subquestion: Assuming Ridley can return to his pre injury & suspension form, how does the trio of Ridley, Kirk and Jones compare to other notable receiver groups in team history, like the 1996 group (Jimmy Smith, Keenan McCardell, Andre Rison/Willie Jackson) or 2017 (Marquise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns).
4. Tight End: One of last year's most pleasant surprises was the play of Evan Engram, who went from a bust with the New York Giants to an integral weapon in the Jaguars attack last year. Some may argue that Engram gave the Jaguars the best receiving threat at TE in team history, ahead of Marcedes Lewis, Kyle Brady, et al. He has been absent from OTAs and minicamps trying to get a new contract. The team has applied the franchise tag. This aside, there are some changes, most relevant is the addition of Strange from Penn State.
Question: Do you think we re-sign Engram to a new long term deal by the start of training camp, or will Engram play the whole year under the tag?
5. Offensive line- Pederson' and Rauscher's blocking schemes led to a very good year for the offensive line last year. Cam Robinson had his best year at LT since 2017. After being out most of his last two years of college due to injury and the Covid-19 and a transitional rookie year, Walker Little played well at RT (and LT when Cam Robinson was injured late in the season). Scherff had a good year by Jaguars G standards, but he was hampered by injuries last year. Once again, Tyler Shatley came to the rescue due to injury and provided some good snaps. Then rookie Luke Fortner manned the C position decently. Since then, we learned before the draft that Robinson is facing a possible six game suspension for violating the league's steroid policy. A suspension would leave Walker Little continuing at LT, rookie Anton Harrison moving in at RT. At least that's how it worked out during OTAs.
Question: How does the OL shake out in Cam Robinson's absence? Does Little continue at LT or does he return to the right? Does Harrison have the strength to be successful at RT...or possibly to shift inside to LG should Shatley and/or the unproven Blake Hance falter? What about when Cam Robinson returns?
(06-16-2023, 11:03 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]This is the time of year many football fans like me hate. There's no football happening. Mini camps are over. Training camps are about a month away from opening.
Aside from the occasional signing of a vet looking to catch on with a team before training camp, or the occasional arrest/suspension of a player, there is typically very little football related news to satisfy the football withdrawal most of us die hard football fans are enduring.
Basically the only things to mitigate the cravings during this time are internet clips, the annual preseason football mags, and message boards like this one.
Understanding this is a beyond herculean task akin to bailing out the Titanic with a coffee mug, here is one of my attempts to take a little of the sting of football withdrawal by trying to stimulate discussion.
The following is a questionnaire/survey that raises issues and questions going into training camp. As always, your thoughts and analysis are welcome.
1. Quarterback-Under the guidance of Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence made considerable strides from his rookie year struggle, more than doubling his TDs and reducing his INTs by half, and tripling the team's win total from 3 in his rookie year to 9 wins, a divisional title a win in the playoffs and divisional round appearance. For the first time since his college days, he will be in the same offense in back to back years. Question: How much improvement, if any, do you see from Trevor Lawrence this year?
2. Running back-Travis Etienne rebounded from a lis franc injury that kept him sidelined the entire 2021 season to rush for over 1000 yards last year, once he took over the starting RB duties from James Robinson, who was traded away to the Jets. Robinson was replaced by JaMycal Hasty, who gave the team some decent reps last year, including a long TD run against the Colts. The Jaguars also drafted Ole Miss RB Snoop Connor last year. This year, Baalke and Pederson added RB D' Ernest Johnson, a free agent who played in a talented and crowded Cleveland backfield, and 3rd round draft pick Tank Bigsby out of Auburn.
Question: How will the RB postion shake itself out? How many do you expect them to keep? Who is/are the odd man/men out?
Sub question: The Jaguars final draft pick-whose name escapes me at the moment (apologies to him)-is envisioned as a FB. Does he make the final 53 man roster?
3. Wide Receiver: Despite a ton of criticism for the signings of Zay Jones and Christian Kirk,both players were instrumental in Trevor Lawrence's ascent to near elite status, silencing those critics. (Full disclosure: I had my share of doubts about the signings. I heartily and gladly eat crow. Midway through last year, Baalke and Pederson traded for Falcons' WR Calvin Ridley, who was serving a year long suspension for violating the league's policy on gambling. This was following a half year sabbatical he took for reported mental health issues. By all accounts, Ridley has looked like his pre suspension self in mincamps and OTAs. But it's rare that a player can be out for a year or more, return to action and play at or near the level he played pre absence. (Hall of Fame RB John Riggins is the most notable example the leaps to mind).
Question: What do you expect from the receiving corps as a whole this year and from Ridley in particular?
Subquestion: Assuming Ridley can return to his pre injury & suspension form, how does the trio of Ridley, Kirk and Jones compare to other notable receiver groups in team history, like the 1996 group (Jimmy Smith, Keenan McCardell, Andre Rison/Willie Jackson) or 2017 (Marquise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns).
4. Tight End: One of last year's most pleasant surprises was the play of Evan Engram, who went from a bust with the New York Giants to an integral weapon in the Jaguars attack last year. Some may argue that Engram gave the Jaguars the best receiving threat at TE in team history, ahead of Marcedes Lewis, Kyle Brady, et al. He has been absent from OTAs and minicamps trying to get a new contract. The team has applied the franchise tag. This aside, there are some changes, most relevant is the addition of Strange from Penn State.
Question: Do you think we re-sign Engram to a new long term deal by the start of training camp, or will Engram play the whole year under the tag?
5. Offensive line- Pederson' and Rauscher's blocking schemes led to a very good year for the offensive line last year. Cam Robinson had his best year at LT since 2017. After being out most of his last two years of college due to injury and the Covid-19 and a transitional rookie year, Walker Little played well at RT (and LT when Cam Robinson was injured late in the season). Scherff had a good year by Jaguars G standards, but he was hampered by injuries last year. Once again, Tyler Shatley came to the rescue due to injury and provided some good snaps. Then rookie Luke Fortner manned the C position decently. Since then, we learned before the draft that Robinson is facing a possible six game suspension for violating the league's steroid policy. A suspension would leave Walker Little continuing at LT, rookie Anton Harrison moving in at RT. At least that's how it worked out during OTAs.
Question: How does the OL shake out in Cam Robinson's absence? Does Little continue at LT or does he return to the right? Does Harrison have the strength to be successful at RT...or possibly to shift inside to LG should Shatley and/or the unproven Blake Hance falter? What about when Cam Robinson returns?
1. I expect big things out of Lawrence in year three of his career, with him entering year two with Pederson. I legitimately think he'll be in the MVP conversation and race this season and I think we'll see a herculean leap in terms of his TD's increasing while his turnovers significantly go down. I think his overall yardage will go up as well as his completion percentage. I think he's going to make Kyle Brandt look like a damn fool for putting him in tier six. Expect more and more big plays out of him. Almost Peyton Manning like if I am being honest.
2. I think the RB room looks crowded as it stands, but, by the time the regular season starts, I think we'll see Etienne - Bigsby - Hasty. By all accounts from what I have seen and heard locally. Bigsby has stood out as a physically gifted player and you would think that aspect of him will translate well once the pads go on and the rounds go live. I believe Parish makes the team as our FB and ST's player. His size, speed and career as far as moving around on both sides of the football are impressive and it speaks volumes to his intelligence as a player and his willingness to work and be a team player.
3. I expect this receiving core to build upon what it did last year with Lawrence. It's also Kirk's and Jones' 2nd year now with him and in this system. Ridley is supposed to be that alpha on the outside so it should take even more pressure off of Kirk and Jones in the pecking order of things. As cited in the first question, as Lawrence's numbers and natural progression occurs? So to will his teammates around him. I would say historically with Ridley in this mix and the expectations he has set for himself with Lawrence? This is probably the best receiving core we have had in franchise history since the 1990s and the sky's the limit.
4. I really don't foresee Engram getting a long term deal done here. I think they'll let him play out on the tag in 2023, take the wait and see approach with him and test out what happens with Josh Allen. If Josh Allen has a great year off the edge? You're going to want to more than likely allocate that money over into his new deal potentially instead of getting tied up with Engram. Especially if Ridley turns heads and turns out to be a monster on the outside. You can only spread the football around to so many people on offense. Strange being selected where he was selected also does not bode well for Engram's longevity here in Jacksonville.
5. LT is Little's job to lose IMHO. Robinson coming back shouldn't have too much weight on their decision making short of Little struggling clearly and Robinson having one more year left. I could see them replacing Little if he struggles via the draft next year already just like they did with Taylor's job in selecting Harrison back in April. Robinson could find some starting time though at LG. I think that's still a position of concern with Bartch returning from injury and Shatley really being our only true back-up to Fortner at Center. We can't spread ourselves too thin across that unit.
(06-16-2023, 11:03 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]2. Question: How will the RB postion shake itself out? How many do you expect them to keep? Who is/are the odd man/men out?
Sub question: The Jaguars final draft pick-whose name escapes me at the moment (apologies to him)-is envisioned as a FB. Does he make the final 53 man roster?
I think they keep 4 which could be either 3 RBs + FB Derek Parish or 4 of the RBs if Parish can't demonstrate enough value at any of his potential positional roles to catch on. Outside chance it's 4 RBs + FB Derek Parish. I do not see 5 pure RBs making the team. I just think it gets awfully tough with the 53 man roster to bring 5 RBs or more along though with a 17 game season + playoffs they may put a premium on fresh legs.
ETN is a given. Tank is a given. They just gave Hasty an extension this offseason so things would have to go unexpectedly bad for him in camp/preseason for an about face. So that's 3. That leaves Snoop, D'Ernest, Qadree and Derek fighting for 1 (maybe 2) spots. D'Ernest's body type is similar to ETN and Tank. Your bigger body guys are Snoop, Qadree and Derek. The fact that there are 3 of them here suggests they probably want one of them on the roster for situational football or blocking but Doug doesn't seem like the type to force something that isn't there if they just aren't impressed. There is no real financial commitment (i.e. no significant guaranteed money) at the moment to any of the 4 guys fighting for the 1 or 2 spots that are likely available.
There seems to be a majority here that believes D'Ernest is absolutely making the team. I think Tank being drafted puts a significant dent in that possibility. I think he is on the bubble and needs to either ball out in camp/pre-season or someone would need to be injured.
Derek has positional flexibility having played DE in college and was somewhat impressive there on review. Maybe that gives him a leg up. Like I've said previously, I would love to see a guy like that make the team and occasionally make appearances on all 3 sides of the ball.
Snoop has the fact that he was drafted here and even traded up for, but hasn't shown anything yet and is probably on the bubble.
No one brings up Qadree, but I actually liked the little bit I watched on him recently with the ball in his hands. Though it will likely come down to more than just that. If it comes down to 4 guys, I think it's probably between Derek and Qadree personally. It will be an interesting group to watch during pre-season.
(06-16-2023, 12:11 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ] (06-16-2023, 11:03 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]This is the time of year many football fans like me hate. There's no football happening. Mini camps are over. Training camps are about a month away from opening.
Aside from the occasional signing of a vet looking to catch on with a team before training camp, or the occasional arrest/suspension of a player, there is typically very little football related news to satisfy the football withdrawal most of us die hard football fans are enduring.
Basically the only things to mitigate the cravings during this time are internet clips, the annual preseason football mags, and message boards like this one.
Understanding this is a beyond herculean task akin to bailing out the Titanic with a coffee mug, here is one of my attempts to take a little of the sting of football withdrawal by trying to stimulate discussion.
The following is a questionnaire/survey that raises issues and questions going into training camp. As always, your thoughts and analysis are welcome.
1. Quarterback-Under the guidance of Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence made considerable strides from his rookie year struggle, more than doubling his TDs and reducing his INTs by half, and tripling the team's win total from 3 in his rookie year to 9 wins, a divisional title a win in the playoffs and divisional round appearance. For the first time since his college days, he will be in the same offense in back to back years. Question: How much improvement, if any, do you see from Trevor Lawrence this year?
2. Running back-Travis Etienne rebounded from a lis franc injury that kept him sidelined the entire 2021 season to rush for over 1000 yards last year, once he took over the starting RB duties from James Robinson, who was traded away to the Jets. Robinson was replaced by JaMycal Hasty, who gave the team some decent reps last year, including a long TD run against the Colts. The Jaguars also drafted Ole Miss RB Snoop Connor last year. This year, Baalke and Pederson added RB D' Ernest Johnson, a free agent who played in a talented and crowded Cleveland backfield, and 3rd round draft pick Tank Bigsby out of Auburn.
Question: How will the RB postion shake itself out? How many do you expect them to keep? Who is/are the odd man/men out?
Sub question: The Jaguars final draft pick-whose name escapes me at the moment (apologies to him)-is envisioned as a FB. Does he make the final 53 man roster?
3. Wide Receiver: Despite a ton of criticism for the signings of Zay Jones and Christian Kirk,both players were instrumental in Trevor Lawrence's ascent to near elite status, silencing those critics. (Full disclosure: I had my share of doubts about the signings. I heartily and gladly eat crow. Midway through last year, Baalke and Pederson traded for Falcons' WR Calvin Ridley, who was serving a year long suspension for violating the league's policy on gambling. This was following a half year sabbatical he took for reported mental health issues. By all accounts, Ridley has looked like his pre suspension self in mincamps and OTAs. But it's rare that a player can be out for a year or more, return to action and play at or near the level he played pre absence. (Hall of Fame RB John Riggins is the most notable example the leaps to mind).
Question: What do you expect from the receiving corps as a whole this year and from Ridley in particular?
Subquestion: Assuming Ridley can return to his pre injury & suspension form, how does the trio of Ridley, Kirk and Jones compare to other notable receiver groups in team history, like the 1996 group (Jimmy Smith, Keenan McCardell, Andre Rison/Willie Jackson) or 2017 (Marquise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns).
4. Tight End: One of last year's most pleasant surprises was the play of Evan Engram, who went from a bust with the New York Giants to an integral weapon in the Jaguars attack last year. Some may argue that Engram gave the Jaguars the best receiving threat at TE in team history, ahead of Marcedes Lewis, Kyle Brady, et al. He has been absent from OTAs and minicamps trying to get a new contract. The team has applied the franchise tag. This aside, there are some changes, most relevant is the addition of Strange from Penn State.
Question: Do you think we re-sign Engram to a new long term deal by the start of training camp, or will Engram play the whole year under the tag?
5. Offensive line- Pederson' and Rauscher's blocking schemes led to a very good year for the offensive line last year. Cam Robinson had his best year at LT since 2017. After being out most of his last two years of college due to injury and the Covid-19 and a transitional rookie year, Walker Little played well at RT (and LT when Cam Robinson was injured late in the season). Scherff had a good year by Jaguars G standards, but he was hampered by injuries last year. Once again, Tyler Shatley came to the rescue due to injury and provided some good snaps. Then rookie Luke Fortner manned the C position decently. Since then, we learned before the draft that Robinson is facing a possible six game suspension for violating the league's steroid policy. A suspension would leave Walker Little continuing at LT, rookie Anton Harrison moving in at RT. At least that's how it worked out during OTAs.
Question: How does the OL shake out in Cam Robinson's absence? Does Little continue at LT or does he return to the right? Does Harrison have the strength to be successful at RT...or possibly to shift inside to LG should Shatley and/or the unproven Blake Hance falter? What about when Cam Robinson returns?
1. I expect big things out of Lawrence in year three of his career, with him entering year two with Pederson. I legitimately think he'll be in the MVP conversation and race this season and I think we'll see a herculean leap in terms of his TD's increasing while his turnovers significantly go down. I think his overall yardage will go up as well as his completion percentage. I think he's going to make Kyle Brandt look like a damn fool for putting him in tier six. Expect more and more big plays out of him. Almost Peyton Manning like if I am being honest.
2. I think the RB room looks crowded as it stands, but, by the time the regular season starts, I think we'll see Etienne - Bigsby - Hasty. By all accounts from what I have seen and heard locally. Bigsby has stood out as a physically gifted player and you would think that aspect of him will translate well once the pads go on and the rounds go live. I believe Parish makes the team as our FB and ST's player. His size, speed and career as far as moving around on both sides of the football are impressive and it speaks volumes to his intelligence as a player and his willingness to work and be a team player.
3. I expect this receiving core to build upon what it did last year with Lawrence. It's also Kirk's and Jones' 2nd year now with him and in this system. Ridley is supposed to be that alpha on the outside so it should take even more pressure off of Kirk and Jones in the pecking order of things. As cited in the first question, as Lawrence's numbers and natural progression occurs? So to will his teammates around him. I would say historically with Ridley in this mix and the expectations he has set for himself with Lawrence? This is probably the best receiving core we have had in franchise history since the 1990s and the sky's the limit.
4. I really don't foresee Engram getting a long term deal done here. I think they'll let him play out on the tag in 2023, take the wait and see approach with him and test out what happens with Josh Allen. If Josh Allen has a great year off the edge? You're going to want to more than likely allocate that money over into his new deal potentially instead of getting tied up with Engram. Especially if Ridley turns heads and turns out to be a monster on the outside. You can only spread the football around to so many people on offense. Strange being selected where he was selected also does not bode well for Engram's longevity here in Jacksonville.
5. LT is Little's job to lose IMHO. Robinson coming back shouldn't have too much weight on their decision making short of Little struggling clearly and Robinson having one more year left. I could see them replacing Little if he struggles via the draft next year already just like they did with Taylor's job in selecting Harrison back in April. Robinson could find some starting time though at LG. I think that's still a position of concern with Bartch returning from injury and Shatley really being our only true back-up to Fortner at Center. We can't spread ourselves too thin across that unit.
1. I too expect big things out of Trevor Lawrence this year. I can see more consistency overall from him. I do not see uneven performances that we got in his rookie year and the irst part of last year. This is his 3rd year in the league...his second in Pederson's system. This is his second year with Kirk, Jones and Engram and his first with Ridley in the mix. He even has playoff games experience. I also think the schedule will lend itself to improvement. We are likely facing no fewer than 3 rookie starting QBs this season: Richardson in Indy, Stroud in Houston, and if the season starts of =f roughly, I could see Tennessee starting Levis. We play the NFC South, andd that, too is a division in transition. Carolina is likely starting a rookie at QB and Atlanta may start a 2nd yeat guy. I could see thos offenses potentially struggling as these young signal callers try to learn the NFL game and get their feet under them. That, in turn, will put more pressure and burden on their respective defenses, which should benefit the Jaguars offense. The tough stretch features strong offenses in Kansas City, Cincinnati, Buffahole, Baltimore, and depending on how thigs go, you could add Cleveland New Orleans and Pittsburgh to that. The passing game will have to be on point against these teams for the Jaguars to be competitive. Finally, the remaining games (Tampa, Carolina, and Atlanta are clearly winnable, and should feature at least two games featuring teams that may be playing for a draft position by season's end. As long as Lawrence and the offense remain healthy, Lawrence should be more productive this year.
2. I think from top to bottom, this is a good group. I don't think it's as good as the 2007 duo if FT and MJD, but I believe all are capable of giving us quality production with extended carries. Connor seems to be the exception to this. At no point was I overly impressed with Connor last year. I see him as the odd man out and the Jaguars keep at least 3 RBs.
2a (subquestion): I don't have a clue as to whether they will keep a FB this year., or if Parish is the guy if they do.
3. I am expecting considerable improvement this year for a few reasons. Kirk and Jones will be in their second year's in the offense and with Trevor. They should have a better grasp of the scheme than they had last year, and they and Lawrence know or have a better idea of how they will think given certain defenses. Minimally, this group will be bolstered by the addition of Ridley. At minimum, a rusty Ridley should be an improvement over what Marvin Jones offered last year. But if he's anything close to what he was in Atlanta, this trio will certainly be among the best in the league. Will Ridley be rusty, or will he be as productive as ever? If he's at the lower end of that spectrum, I'd rate this trio a distant second behind the 1996 group and ahead of the 2017 group. If Ridley is at the top of his game, returning to his 2020 form, it'll be close between 2996. But it's a capable group no matter where you might place them out of those three receiving corps, and that will bode well for the team.
4. I'm not sure if Engram will be re-signed by training camp or not. The team is facing a lot of key players who could leave via free agency next year and we may not be able to keep everyone. But if I had my choice, Engram would be retained for at least another year. I may
5. My initial thoughts are that I think Walker Little should step in at LT and perform well. He played the position in college, and each time he has played LT in the NFL-including in last year's playoffs-he has performed well. Having gotten all of the rust off, he should play better this year. I also think Harrison has the size and athleticism/feet to be an asset at RT. Having seen mostly highlights of him, I don't know how legit the concerns about his power are, so I don't know how good of a run blocker he can be. But since his primary task will be to provide protection for Trevor Lawrence, I think he is up to the task. I DO wonder how things will play out for the remainder of the year once Robinson comes back from suspension. Naturally it'll depend on the health and performance of the OL at the time. Assuming the OL is healthy and performing well, I don't think they will make any changes. If, however, the team is not playing well, or they have a T banged up, Robinson gets PT upon his return. Perhaps a more interesting question is what happens at LG in case of injury or poor play. One interesting development happened at OTAs when Little got snaps at LG. I've no doubt Little could slide in at LG if needed, though clearly I would prefer him at T at this point. However, moving Robinson or Harrison slide inside would be a bigger question. Robinson has always played LT, and seemed pretty emphatic speaking against possibly moving inside. Might he be more flexible knowing he has a PED suspension and free agency coming? Harrison poses a different question-that of his power. Does he have the strength to play inside. Many of the pre draft scouting reports I've read indicated Harrison lacks strength. That's NOT what you want inside.
(06-16-2023, 12:57 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ] (06-16-2023, 11:03 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]2. Question: How will the RB postion shake itself out? How many do you expect them to keep? Who is/are the odd man/men out?
Sub question: The Jaguars final draft pick-whose name escapes me at the moment (apologies to him)-is envisioned as a FB. Does he make the final 53 man roster?
I think they keep 4 which could be either 3 RBs + FB Derek Parish or 4 of the RBs if Parish can't demonstrate enough value at any of his potential positional roles to catch on. Outside chance it's 4 RBs + FB Derek Parish. I do not see 5 pure RBs making the team. I just think it gets awfully tough with the 53 man roster to bring 5 RBs or more along though with a 17 game season + playoffs they may put a premium on fresh legs.
ETN is a given. Tank is a given. They just gave Hasty an extension this offseason so things would have to go unexpectedly bad for him in camp/preseason for an about face. So that's 3. That leaves Snoop, D'Ernest, Qadree and Derek fighting for 1 (maybe 2) spots. D'Ernest's body type is similar to ETN and Tank. Your bigger body guys are Snoop, Qadree and Derek. The fact that there are 3 of them here suggests they probably want one of them on the roster for situational football or blocking but Doug doesn't seem like the type to force something that isn't there if they just aren't impressed. There is no real financial commitment (i.e. no significant guaranteed money) at the moment to any of the 4 guys fighting for the 1 or 2 spots that are likely available.
There seems to be a majority here that believes D'Ernest is absolutely making the team. I think Tank being drafted puts a significant dent in that possibility. I think he is on the bubble and needs to either ball out in camp/pre-season or someone would need to be injured.
Derek has positional flexibility having played DE in college and was somewhat impressive there on review. Maybe that gives him a leg up. Like I've said previously, I would love to see a guy like that make the team and occasionally make appearances on all 3 sides of the ball.
Snoop has the fact that he was drafted here and even traded up for, but hasn't shown anything yet and is probably on the bubble.
No one brings up Qadree, but I actually liked the little bit I watched on him recently with the ball in his hands. Though it will likely come down to more than just that. If it comes down to 4 guys, I think it's probably between Derek and Qadree personally. It will be an interesting group to watch during pre-season.
I think the only way Snoop makes the team is either D'Ernest or Hasty dramatically disappoints or otherwise suffers an injury. I haven't seen D'Ernest much, but the clips I have seen of him were pretty impressive. In those clips, he displayed far more ability/potential than Connor.
I still cannot speak to FB.
1. I expect Trevor Lawrence to be more consistently good and playing smart with the ball. He has more weapons, and is in year 2 of Doug's system. I think his yardage, completion rate, and touchdowns will go up significantly this year.
2. At RB on the 53, I foresee Etienne, Bigsby, Johnson, and Hasty. Johnson is a strong special teamer, so carrying the 4th RB is OK. Although Parish is a FB on the roster, if he makes the 53, it will be do to his prowess on special teams....I think of him as a potential Montel Owens type of roster spot if he shows out in the preseason.
3. The WR corps (and receiving corps in general including the TEs) this season should be ultra-productive. I don't see Ridley having an issue shaking the rust off and laying down 1300 yards on the season. The trio of Ridley, Kirk, and Jones will be the 2nd best trio in Jax behind the 1996 boys.
4. Engram will play under the tag this year, as the sides are apparently too far apart today. The Jags have too many contracts coming up next year to overpay for a TE.
5. With Robinson's suspension, the OTs will be initially Little at LT and Harrison at RT. When Cam comes back, and if Little and Harrison are playing well, Cam is going to be a very expensive swing tackle and also compete for a guard spot. Sherff and Fortner are locks inside. It will be interesting to watch the battle for the other starting guard spot, as you can make an argument for many competing for the spot (Bartch, Shatley, Hance, Hodges, Brewer, Van Lanen, Cronk...).
1. I think, at a minimum, that Trevor will play the full year like he did in the second half of last season. If so, that will be improvement from a season-to-season perspective. However, I think he continues to improve, particularly considering this will be his second season in Pederson's system. Ridley is also a nice new weapon that will improve Lawrence's stats.
2. I see Etienne and Bigsby as locks with Hasty and Johnson as likely. Barring injury to one of those four, I give very little chance of Snoop making the 53 man roster. Parish has a small chance. I would consider it a "surprise", but if they like his special teams ability enough, it's possible that he beats our Hasty or Johnson. It's also possible that they keep a fifth running back. It comes down to the final offensive roster spot which I see as a decision between an emergency quarterback, a fourth tight end or Parish. I know some disagree, but I'm still inclined to make the emergency quarterback the favorite. On game day, a third emergency quarterback is more valuable than an inactive player. That's the choice under the new rule. Besides, our fourth tight end and Parish will likely make it to our practice squad and could be called up anyway if injuries occur.
3. I think we're going to have a wonderful receiving core. If you assume Ridley returns to his old form, this group is clearly better than the 2017 group and rivals (but maybe just slightly short) of the 1996 group.
4. I think whether Engram signs a long term deal or the franchise tag will come to the last day or two. I'm leaning towards the franchise tag. I am one who questions whether the Brenton Strange pick was a sign. The Jaguars say that they want Engram long term, but is that just PR? Last year, they said they wanted to keep D.J. Chark, but only threw him a low ball offer. This year, they said that they wanted to keep Arden Key but he received an offer from another team that was easily matchable. How interested are they really in Engram? A second round pick is high for a tight end #2. I'm questioning whether or not the plan is to use Engram this year while Strange is a rookie, but then move on next year and use the salary savings somewhere else. Tight end is a position that often drops in the draft.
5. They have said that Harrison will play right tackle, so I think it's clearly Little at left tackle, Fortner at center, Scherff at right guard and Harrison at right tackle. The only question is maybe left guard. If healthy, I think it is Bartch who won the job last year over Shatley. That being said, I do think there will be a competition for that spot. As for when Cam returns, it will depend upon how the offensive line is playing. If they are playing really well, I could see Pederson sticking with it. If the left guard is struggling, I could see Cam going to left tackle and Little to left guard with the rest unchanged.
(06-17-2023, 09:01 AM)ATLjag Wrote: [ -> ]1. I expect Trevor Lawrence to be more consistently good and playing smart with the ball. He has more weapons, and is in year 2 of Doug's system. I think his yardage, completion rate, and touchdowns will go up significantly this year.
2. At RB on the 53, I foresee Etienne, Bigsby, Johnson, and Hasty. Johnson is a strong special teamer, so carrying the 4th RB is OK. Although Parish is a FB on the roster, if he makes the 53, it will be do to his prowess on special teams....I think of him as a potential Montel Owens type of roster spot if he shows out in the preseason.
3. The WR corps (and receiving corps in general including the TEs) this season should be ultra-productive. I don't see Ridley having an issue shaking the rust off and laying down 1300 yards on the season. The trio of Ridley, Kirk, and Jones will be the 2nd best trio in Jax behind the 1996 boys.
4. Engram will play under the tag this year, as the sides are apparently too far apart today. The Jags have too many contracts coming up next year to overpay for a TE.
5. With Robinson's suspension, the OTs will be initially Little at LT and Harrison at RT. When Cam comes back, and if Little and Harrison are playing well, Cam is going to be a very expensive swing tackle and also compete for a guard spot. Sherff and Fortner are locks inside. It will be interesting to watch the battle for the other starting guard spot, as you can make an argument for many competing for the spot (Bartch, Shatley, Hance, Hodges, Brewer, Van Lanen, Cronk...).
1. My expectations for Trevor Lawrence mirror yours-at least at face value. With the increase in talent that Ridley representsm and everyone else going into their second year in the offense, it would seem Trevor Lawrence is poised for an even bigger year this year. I predict if he stays healthy again this year, Lawrence eclipses 30 TDs passing-especially if Ridley is close to his Atlanta form.
2. I know nothing about Parish-only that he played on the defensive side of the ball in college. I think he has the potential to be a very popular player here in Jacksonville if he makes the team and starts at FB. Based on his background, I can see him as the Jaguars version of a guy who used to play for the Dolphins years ago. He was a 3rd string QB, but played multiple roles on the Dolphins, including receiving back. They called him "crash" and he wore #11, but I can't remember his name at the moment. Without having seen Parish play, I could forsee him in a best cast scenario being the Jaguars version of "crash."
3. This should be an ultra productive group. I see Ridley's floor as being better than Marvin Jones, considering he is coming off a year and a half layoff. Assuming little to no rust, the sky is the limit for him. That firm of Ridley Kirk and Jones should be fun to watch.
4. I am hoping Engram gets re-signed. Though TE historically has not been an organizational priority, I think TE is critical in the Pederson offensive approach. I also think in our system, he has a few good years left. Though I've heard good things about Strange so far, I don't want to start all over at the TE position after it took so long for us to be competent at the position.
5. I wonder if Cam will be more open to playing inside now that he's been suspended and will be a free agent at the end of the season.
(06-17-2023, 04:10 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]1. I think, at a minimum, that Trevor will play the full year like he did in the second half of last season. If so, that will be improvement from a season-to-season perspective. However, I think he continues to improve, particularly considering this will be his second season in Pederson's system. Ridley is also a nice new weapon that will improve Lawrence's stats.
2. I see Etienne and Bigsby as locks with Hasty and Johnson as likely. Barring injury to one of those four, I give very little chance of Snoop making the 53 man roster. Parish has a small chance. I would consider it a "surprise", but if they like his special teams ability enough, it's possible that he beats our Hasty or Johnson. It's also possible that they keep a fifth running back. It comes down to the final offensive roster spot which I see as a decision between an emergency quarterback, a fourth tight end or Parish. I know some disagree, but I'm still inclined to make the emergency quarterback the favorite. On game day, a third emergency quarterback is more valuable than an inactive player. That's the choice under the new rule. Besides, our fourth tight end and Parish will likely make it to our practice squad and could be called up anyway if injuries occur.
3. I think we're going to have a wonderful receiving core. If you assume Ridley returns to his old form, this group is clearly better than the 2017 group and rivals (but maybe just slightly short) of the 1996 group.
4. I think whether Engram signs a long term deal or the franchise tag will come to the last day or two. I'm leaning towards the franchise tag. I am one who questions whether the Brenton Strange pick was a sign. The Jaguars say that they want Engram long term, but is that just PR? Last year, they said they wanted to keep D.J. Chark, but only threw him a low ball offer. This year, they said that they wanted to keep Arden Key but he received an offer from another team that was easily matchable. How interested are they really in Engram? A second round pick is high for a tight end #2. I'm questioning whether or not the plan is to use Engram this year while Strange is a rookie, but then move on next year and use the salary savings somewhere else. Tight end is a position that often drops in the draft.
5. They have said that Harrison will play right tackle, so I think it's clearly Little at left tackle, Fortner at center, Scherff at right guard and Harrison at right tackle. The only question is maybe left guard. If healthy, I think it is Bartch who won the job last year over Shatley. That being said, I do think there will be a competition for that spot. As for when Cam returns, it will depend upon how the offensive line is playing. If they are playing really well, I could see Pederson sticking with it. If the left guard is struggling, I could see Cam going to left tackle and Little to left guard with the rest unchanged.
1. Agreed.
2. I think your 3rd QB analysis is more true given the rules changed regarding kickoffs. With kickoff returns and coverage being de-emphasized, the bottom of the roster's emphasis on special teams contributions will also be reduced. Though Pederson has stated there won't be much roster change or any less emphasis on special teams, I think there may be some change which changes the calculus on the 3rd QB vs the special teams contributor.
3. It seems the early consensus here is at its best, this team ranks just below the 1996 group. What would you see that gives the 1996 group the edge over this year's receivers?
5. Why do you see Cam going to LG when he has steadfastly refused to move inside before?
(06-17-2023, 05:35 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ] (06-17-2023, 04:10 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]1. I think, at a minimum, that Trevor will play the full year like he did in the second half of last season. If so, that will be improvement from a season-to-season perspective. However, I think he continues to improve, particularly considering this will be his second season in Pederson's system. Ridley is also a nice new weapon that will improve Lawrence's stats.
2. I see Etienne and Bigsby as locks with Hasty and Johnson as likely. Barring injury to one of those four, I give very little chance of Snoop making the 53 man roster. Parish has a small chance. I would consider it a "surprise", but if they like his special teams ability enough, it's possible that he beats our Hasty or Johnson. It's also possible that they keep a fifth running back. It comes down to the final offensive roster spot which I see as a decision between an emergency quarterback, a fourth tight end or Parish. I know some disagree, but I'm still inclined to make the emergency quarterback the favorite. On game day, a third emergency quarterback is more valuable than an inactive player. That's the choice under the new rule. Besides, our fourth tight end and Parish will likely make it to our practice squad and could be called up anyway if injuries occur.
3. I think we're going to have a wonderful receiving core. If you assume Ridley returns to his old form, this group is clearly better than the 2017 group and rivals (but maybe just slightly short) of the 1996 group.
4. I think whether Engram signs a long term deal or the franchise tag will come to the last day or two. I'm leaning towards the franchise tag. I am one who questions whether the Brenton Strange pick was a sign. The Jaguars say that they want Engram long term, but is that just PR? Last year, they said they wanted to keep D.J. Chark, but only threw him a low ball offer. This year, they said that they wanted to keep Arden Key but he received an offer from another team that was easily matchable. How interested are they really in Engram? A second round pick is high for a tight end #2. I'm questioning whether or not the plan is to use Engram this year while Strange is a rookie, but then move on next year and use the salary savings somewhere else. Tight end is a position that often drops in the draft.
5. They have said that Harrison will play right tackle, so I think it's clearly Little at left tackle, Fortner at center, Scherff at right guard and Harrison at right tackle. The only question is maybe left guard. If healthy, I think it is Bartch who won the job last year over Shatley. That being said, I do think there will be a competition for that spot. As for when Cam returns, it will depend upon how the offensive line is playing. If they are playing really well, I could see Pederson sticking with it. If the left guard is struggling, I could see Cam going to left tackle and Little to left guard with the rest unchanged.
1. Agreed.
2. I think your 3rd QB analysis is more true given the rules changed regarding kickoffs. With kickoff returns and coverage being de-emphasized, the bottom of the roster's emphasis on special teams contributions will also be reduced. Though Pederson has stated there won't be much roster change or any less emphasis on special teams, I think there may be some change which changes the calculus on the 3rd QB vs the special teams contributor.
3. It seems the early consensus here is at its best, this team ranks just below the 1996 group. What would you see that gives the 1996 group the edge over this year's receivers?
5. Why do you see Cam going to LG when he has steadfastly refused to move inside before?
In regard to #5 (emphasis added), I think you mis-read my message. I said that Cam would go to left tackle and Little would go to left guard. I don't see Cam playing anywhere other than left tackle.
(06-17-2023, 05:35 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ] (06-17-2023, 04:10 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]1. I think, at a minimum, that Trevor will play the full year like he did in the second half of last season. If so, that will be improvement from a season-to-season perspective. However, I think he continues to improve, particularly considering this will be his second season in Pederson's system. Ridley is also a nice new weapon that will improve Lawrence's stats.
2. I see Etienne and Bigsby as locks with Hasty and Johnson as likely. Barring injury to one of those four, I give very little chance of Snoop making the 53 man roster. Parish has a small chance. I would consider it a "surprise", but if they like his special teams ability enough, it's possible that he beats our Hasty or Johnson. It's also possible that they keep a fifth running back. It comes down to the final offensive roster spot which I see as a decision between an emergency quarterback, a fourth tight end or Parish. I know some disagree, but I'm still inclined to make the emergency quarterback the favorite. On game day, a third emergency quarterback is more valuable than an inactive player. That's the choice under the new rule. Besides, our fourth tight end and Parish will likely make it to our practice squad and could be called up anyway if injuries occur.
3. I think we're going to have a wonderful receiving core. If you assume Ridley returns to his old form, this group is clearly better than the 2017 group and rivals (but maybe just slightly short) of the 1996 group.
4. I think whether Engram signs a long term deal or the franchise tag will come to the last day or two. I'm leaning towards the franchise tag. I am one who questions whether the Brenton Strange pick was a sign. The Jaguars say that they want Engram long term, but is that just PR? Last year, they said they wanted to keep D.J. Chark, but only threw him a low ball offer. This year, they said that they wanted to keep Arden Key but he received an offer from another team that was easily matchable. How interested are they really in Engram? A second round pick is high for a tight end #2. I'm questioning whether or not the plan is to use Engram this year while Strange is a rookie, but then move on next year and use the salary savings somewhere else. Tight end is a position that often drops in the draft.
5. They have said that Harrison will play right tackle, so I think it's clearly Little at left tackle, Fortner at center, Scherff at right guard and Harrison at right tackle. The only question is maybe left guard. If healthy, I think it is Bartch who won the job last year over Shatley. That being said, I do think there will be a competition for that spot. As for when Cam returns, it will depend upon how the offensive line is playing. If they are playing really well, I could see Pederson sticking with it. If the left guard is struggling, I could see Cam going to left tackle and Little to left guard with the rest unchanged.
1. Agreed.
2. I think your 3rd QB analysis is more true given the rules changed regarding kickoffs. With kickoff returns and coverage being de-emphasized, the bottom of the roster's emphasis on special teams contributions will also be reduced. Though Pederson has stated there won't be much roster change or any less emphasis on special teams, I think there may be some change which changes the calculus on the 3rd QB vs the special teams contributor.
3. It seems the early consensus here is at its best, this team ranks just below the 1996 group. What would you see that gives the 1996 group the edge over this year's receivers?
5. Why do you see Cam going to LG when he has steadfastly refused to move inside before?
This issue could get interesting if Little and Harrison are playing well when Cam comes back, but Bartch is not.
Personally, I feel like Cam should be a team first player and lose the positional diva schtick.
Especially when you've just let your team down with a suspension and your coach wears a SB ring.
Now, can he play LG worth a flip? No idea.
But if that's where they need him to try holding it down, dude should suck it up and play guard.
Especially if the details reveal he did something stupid top earn this suspension.
(06-16-2023, 11:03 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]This is the time of year many football fans like me hate. There's no football happening. Mini camps are over. Training camps are about a month away from opening.
...
1. Quarterback-Under the guidance of Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence made considerable strides from his rookie year struggle, more than doubling his TDs and reducing his INTs by half, and tripling the team's win total from 3 in his rookie year to 9 wins, a divisional title a win in the playoffs and divisional round appearance. For the first time since his college days, he will be in the same offense in back to back years. Question: How much improvement, if any, do you see from Trevor Lawrence this year?
Requisite "year two in the system stuff" combined with the "added weapon" stuff from #0.
This will probably be a top 5 offense and TL will be the integral.
2. Running back-Travis Etienne rebounded from a lis franc injury that kept him sidelined the entire 2021 season to rush for over 1000 yards last year, once he took over the starting RB duties from James Robinson, who was traded away to the Jets. Robinson was replaced by JaMycal Hasty, who gave the team some decent reps last year, including a long TD run against the Colts. The Jaguars also drafted Ole Miss RB Snoop Connor last year. This year, Baalke and Pederson added RB D' Ernest Johnson, a free agent who played in a talented and crowded Cleveland backfield, and 3rd round draft pick Tank Bigsby out of Auburn.
Question: How will the RB postion shake itself out? How many do you expect them to keep? Who is/are the odd man/men out?
Lots of ways for this to shake out.
I think ETN, Bigsby, Hasty, and Johnson are your four and if the FB turns out to be worthy, maybe they list him as an H-Back and group him w/ the TE room on the depth chart.
Sub question: The Jaguars final draft pick-whose name escapes me at the moment (apologies to him)-is envisioned as a FB. Does he make the final 53 man roster?
3. Wide Receiver: Despite a ton of criticism for the signings of Zay Jones and Christian Kirk,both players were instrumental in Trevor Lawrence's ascent to near elite status, silencing those critics. (Full disclosure: I had my share of doubts about the signings. I heartily and gladly eat crow. Midway through last year, Baalke and Pederson traded for Falcons' WR Calvin Ridley, who was serving a year long suspension for violating the league's policy on gambling. This was following a half year sabbatical he took for reported mental health issues. By all accounts, Ridley has looked like his pre suspension self in mincamps and OTAs. But it's rare that a player can be out for a year or more, return to action and play at or near the level he played pre absence. (Hall of Fame RB John Riggins is the most notable example the leaps to mind).
Question: What do you expect from the receiving corps as a whole this year and from Ridley in particular?
BIG THINGS
Subquestion: Assuming Ridley can return to his pre injury & suspension form, how does the trio of Ridley, Kirk and Jones compare to other notable receiver groups in team history, like the 1996 group (Jimmy Smith, Keenan McCardell, Andre Rison/Willie Jackson) or 2017 (Marquise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns).
Ridley/Kirk/Zay are the first group we've seen that may rival the units led by Keenan and Jimmy.
I think they have potential to equal the production of those groups. Definitely already a tier above Lee/Allen/Hurns.
4. Tight End: One of last year's most pleasant surprises was the play of Evan Engram, who went from a bust with the New York Giants to an integral weapon in the Jaguars attack last year. Some may argue that Engram gave the Jaguars the best receiving threat at TE in team history, ahead of Marcedes Lewis, Kyle Brady, et al. He has been absent from OTAs and minicamps trying to get a new contract. The team has applied the franchise tag. This aside, there are some changes, most relevant is the addition of Strange from Penn State.
Question: Do you think we re-sign Engram to a new long term deal by the start of training camp, or will Engram play the whole year under the tag?
If they sign him it means Engram dropped his price.
No big TE deals this offseason give Evan and his agent no leverage. Good TEs got chump change, and he'll have to play on the tag or settle for a reasonable deal.
5. Offensive line- Pederson' and Rauscher's blocking schemes led to a very good year for the offensive line last year. Cam Robinson had his best year at LT since 2017. After being out most of his last two years of college due to injury and the Covid-19 and a transitional rookie year, Walker Little played well at RT (and LT when Cam Robinson was injured late in the season). Scherff had a good year by Jaguars G standards, but he was hampered by injuries last year. Once again, Tyler Shatley came to the rescue due to injury and provided some good snaps. Then rookie Luke Fortner manned the C position decently. Since then, we learned before the draft that Robinson is facing a possible six game suspension for violating the league's steroid policy. A suspension would leave Walker Little continuing at LT, rookie Anton Harrison moving in at RT. At least that's how it worked out during OTAs.
Question: How does the OL shake out in Cam Robinson's absence? Does Little continue at LT or does he return to the right? Does Harrison have the strength to be successful at RT...or possibly to shift inside to LG should Shatley and/or the unproven Blake Hance falter? What about when Cam Robinson returns?
Robinson screwed up and there's a good chance that Little and Harrison make us forget about him quickly.
Health is HUGE for this unit this year though. Depth is sketchy.
I think the line is Little / Bartch/ Fortner / Scherff / Harrison and I think it'll be slightly better than last year if they stay healthy.
Cam's job and future rely on how well young guys ahead of him dude to suspension play.
I hope we simply don't need him. He didn't play to the level of his contract last year.
If we're talking about depth and roster spots, I'm curious about tight end. Last year, the team kept 4. This offseason, they lost two (Manhertz and Arnold) and only gained one of any significance (Strange). What about the fourth spot? It's not as if there weren't opportunities. Dan Arnold took a very long time to sign as a free agent and ultimately did so for only slightly above the NFL veteran minimum. The Jaguars also had 10 draft picks on Day 3 and didn't use a single one on tight end. Do they really like Gerrit Prince so much that they didn't even bring in competition for the fourth spot? Is their plan to just to keep 3 tight ends this year?
(06-19-2023, 01:22 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]If we're talking about depth and roster spots, I'm curious about tight end. Last year, the team kept 4. This offseason, they lost two (Manhertz and Arnold) and only gained one of any significance (Strange). What about the fourth spot? It's not as if there weren't opportunities. Dan Arnold took a very long time to sign as a free agent and ultimately did so for only slightly above the NFL veteran minimum. The Jaguars also had 10 draft picks on Day 3 and didn't use a single one on tight end. Do they really like Gerrit Prince so much that they didn't even bring in competition for the fourth spot? Is their plan to just to keep 3 tight ends this year?
I wouldn't be surprised if they go with 3 TE and a FB (Parish), instead of 4 TE.
But yes they have said that they do really like Prince.
(06-16-2023, 11:03 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]This is the time of year many football fans like me hate. There's no football happening. Mini camps are over. Training camps are about a month away from opening.
Aside from the occasional signing of a vet looking to catch on with a team before training camp, or the occasional arrest/suspension of a player, there is typically very little football related news to satisfy the football withdrawal most of us die hard football fans are enduring.
Basically the only things to mitigate the cravings during this time are internet clips, the annual preseason football mags, and message boards like this one.
Understanding this is a beyond herculean task akin to bailing out the Titanic with a coffee mug, here is one of my attempts to take a little of the sting of football withdrawal by trying to stimulate discussion.
The following is a questionnaire/survey that raises issues and questions going into training camp. As always, your thoughts and analysis are welcome.
1. Quarterback-Under the guidance of Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence made considerable strides from his rookie year struggle, more than doubling his TDs and reducing his INTs by half, and tripling the team's win total from 3 in his rookie year to 9 wins, a divisional title a win in the playoffs and divisional round appearance. For the first time since his college days, he will be in the same offense in back to back years. Question: How much improvement, if any, do you see from Trevor Lawrence this year?
2. Running back-Travis Etienne rebounded from a lis franc injury that kept him sidelined the entire 2021 season to rush for over 1000 yards last year, once he took over the starting RB duties from James Robinson, who was traded away to the Jets. Robinson was replaced by JaMycal Hasty, who gave the team some decent reps last year, including a long TD run against the Colts. The Jaguars also drafted Ole Miss RB Snoop Connor last year. This year, Baalke and Pederson added RB D' Ernest Johnson, a free agent who played in a talented and crowded Cleveland backfield, and 3rd round draft pick Tank Bigsby out of Auburn.
Question: How will the RB postion shake itself out? How many do you expect them to keep? Who is/are the odd man/men out?
Sub question: The Jaguars final draft pick-whose name escapes me at the moment (apologies to him)-is envisioned as a FB. Does he make the final 53 man roster?
3. Wide Receiver: Despite a ton of criticism for the signings of Zay Jones and Christian Kirk,both players were instrumental in Trevor Lawrence's ascent to near elite status, silencing those critics. (Full disclosure: I had my share of doubts about the signings. I heartily and gladly eat crow. Midway through last year, Baalke and Pederson traded for Falcons' WR Calvin Ridley, who was serving a year long suspension for violating the league's policy on gambling. This was following a half year sabbatical he took for reported mental health issues. By all accounts, Ridley has looked like his pre suspension self in mincamps and OTAs. But it's rare that a player can be out for a year or more, return to action and play at or near the level he played pre absence. (Hall of Fame RB John Riggins is the most notable example the leaps to mind).
Question: What do you expect from the receiving corps as a whole this year and from Ridley in particular?
Subquestion: Assuming Ridley can return to his pre injury & suspension form, how does the trio of Ridley, Kirk and Jones compare to other notable receiver groups in team history, like the 1996 group (Jimmy Smith, Keenan McCardell, Andre Rison/Willie Jackson) or 2017 (Marquise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns).
4. Tight End: One of last year's most pleasant surprises was the play of Evan Engram, who went from a bust with the New York Giants to an integral weapon in the Jaguars attack last year. Some may argue that Engram gave the Jaguars the best receiving threat at TE in team history, ahead of Marcedes Lewis, Kyle Brady, et al. He has been absent from OTAs and minicamps trying to get a new contract. The team has applied the franchise tag. This aside, there are some changes, most relevant is the addition of Strange from Penn State.
Question: Do you think we re-sign Engram to a new long term deal by the start of training camp, or will Engram play the whole year under the tag?
5. Offensive line- Pederson' and Rauscher's blocking schemes led to a very good year for the offensive line last year. Cam Robinson had his best year at LT since 2017. After being out most of his last two years of college due to injury and the Covid-19 and a transitional rookie year, Walker Little played well at RT (and LT when Cam Robinson was injured late in the season). Scherff had a good year by Jaguars G standards, but he was hampered by injuries last year. Once again, Tyler Shatley came to the rescue due to injury and provided some good snaps. Then rookie Luke Fortner manned the C position decently. Since then, we learned before the draft that Robinson is facing a possible six game suspension for violating the league's steroid policy. A suspension would leave Walker Little continuing at LT, rookie Anton Harrison moving in at RT. At least that's how it worked out during OTAs.
Question: How does the OL shake out in Cam Robinson's absence? Does Little continue at LT or does he return to the right? Does Harrison have the strength to be successful at RT...or possibly to shift inside to LG should Shatley and/or the unproven Blake Hance falter? What about when Cam Robinson returns?
1. I expect Trevor to become a top 5 quarterback this season if he remains healthy. He will have a plethora of weapons at all the skill positions.
2. The running back room will be the best in several years, Bigsby has the ability to fill-in for Etienne with only a very slight drop-off. Johnson and Hasty will provide
quality depth.
3. The receiving group should be the best since the Smith-McCardell era. The trio of Ridley, Kirk and Jones will be very hard to stop.
4. Not quite as optimistic about the tight end group. Engram must prove that last season's performance was not a tease. If he stays healthy and again keeps the drops to a minimum, he'll be looking at a great contract from some team in 2024. Strange has great potential, but I don't expect the rookie to be a difference-maker this season.
5. The offensive line, with the exception of quarterback, is the most important position on offense. There are 3 legitimate question-marks for the line. Can Little be a reliable left tackle? If not, they may have to move Harrison to that spot if Robinson is still out. I am hopeful Little can do the job, but it has yet to be definitively proven. Harrison has al the tools, but it's not easy for rookie tackles to excel immediately. Bartch must also prove he can be a solid guard. If the line plays poorly, the team will not be nearly as successful as most believe. If the line of Little/Bartch/Fortner/Schereff/ Harrison plays consistently well and jell as a unit, the offense will carry the team to at least 11 or 12 victories.
(06-18-2023, 01:06 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ] (06-17-2023, 05:35 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]1. Agreed.
2. I think your 3rd QB analysis is more true given the rules changed regarding kickoffs. With kickoff returns and coverage being de-emphasized, the bottom of the roster's emphasis on special teams contributions will also be reduced. Though Pederson has stated there won't be much roster change or any less emphasis on special teams, I think there may be some change which changes the calculus on the 3rd QB vs the special teams contributor.
3. It seems the early consensus here is at its best, this team ranks just below the 1996 group. What would you see that gives the 1996 group the edge over this year's receivers?
5. Why do you see Cam going to LG when he has steadfastly refused to move inside before?
In regard to #5 (emphasis added), I think you mis-read my message. I said that Cam would go to left tackle and Little would go to left guard. I don't see Cam playing anywhere other than left tackle.
Apologies, Duke.
Let me rephrase.
Why does Little go to LG?
I know he got some snaps there in mini camp.
If the scouting reports regarding Harrison are true, Harrison won't have the strength to play G effectively.
I guess given the lack of depth at the position, Little might be the default choice at LG of the 3 or 4 Ts on the roster. But what about Wells, who has returned from Tampa?
To me that's a bit of a dilemma. I don't want to risk moving a quality starter inside if it could be avoided, but Wells is a step down athletically from all of our other 3 Ts. Could he get out effectively on a screen-assuming he makes the team?
(06-18-2023, 09:16 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (06-17-2023, 05:35 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]1. Agreed.
2. I think your 3rd QB analysis is more true given the rules changed regarding kickoffs. With kickoff returns and coverage being de-emphasized, the bottom of the roster's emphasis on special teams contributions will also be reduced. Though Pederson has stated there won't be much roster change or any less emphasis on special teams, I think there may be some change which changes the calculus on the 3rd QB vs the special teams contributor.
3. It seems the early consensus here is at its best, this team ranks just below the 1996 group. What would you see that gives the 1996 group the edge over this year's receivers?
5. Why do you see Cam going to LG when he has steadfastly refused to move inside before?
This issue could get interesting if Little and Harrison are playing well when Cam comes back, but Bartch is not.
Personally, I feel like Cam should be a team first player and lose the positional diva schtick.
Especially when you've just let your team down with a suspension and your coach wears a SB ring.
Now, can he play LG worth a flip? No idea.
But if that's where they need him to try holding it down, dude should suck it up and play guard.
Especially if the details reveal he did something stupid top earn this suspension.
(Emphasis added)
IIRC, I made a similar point in an earlier post.
Considering he's set to be a free agent after the season, I would think being willing to move inside, at least temporarily, would help his market, especially given his suspension.
(06-18-2023, 09:29 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (06-16-2023, 11:03 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]This is the time of year many football fans like me hate. There's no football happening. Mini camps are over. Training camps are about a month away from opening.
...
1. Quarterback-Under the guidance of Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence made considerable strides from his rookie year struggle, more than doubling his TDs and reducing his INTs by half, and tripling the team's win total from 3 in his rookie year to 9 wins, a divisional title a win in the playoffs and divisional round appearance. For the first time since his college days, he will be in the same offense in back to back years. Question: How much improvement, if any, do you see from Trevor Lawrence this year?
Requisite "year two in the system stuff" combined with the "added weapon" stuff from #0.
This will probably be a top 5 offense and TL will be the integral.
2. Running back-Travis Etienne rebounded from a lis franc injury that kept him sidelined the entire 2021 season to rush for over 1000 yards last year, once he took over the starting RB duties from James Robinson, who was traded away to the Jets. Robinson was replaced by JaMycal Hasty, who gave the team some decent reps last year, including a long TD run against the Colts. The Jaguars also drafted Ole Miss RB Snoop Connor last year. This year, Baalke and Pederson added RB D' Ernest Johnson, a free agent who played in a talented and crowded Cleveland backfield, and 3rd round draft pick Tank Bigsby out of Auburn.
Question: How will the RB postion shake itself out? How many do you expect them to keep? Who is/are the odd man/men out?
Lots of ways for this to shake out.
I think ETN, Bigsby, Hasty, and Johnson are your four and if the FB turns out to be worthy, maybe they list him as an H-Back and group him w/ the TE room on the depth chart.
Sub question: The Jaguars final draft pick-whose name escapes me at the moment (apologies to him)-is envisioned as a FB. Does he make the final 53 man roster?
3. Wide Receiver: Despite a ton of criticism for the signings of Zay Jones and Christian Kirk,both players were instrumental in Trevor Lawrence's ascent to near elite status, silencing those critics. (Full disclosure: I had my share of doubts about the signings. I heartily and gladly eat crow. Midway through last year, Baalke and Pederson traded for Falcons' WR Calvin Ridley, who was serving a year long suspension for violating the league's policy on gambling. This was following a half year sabbatical he took for reported mental health issues. By all accounts, Ridley has looked like his pre suspension self in mincamps and OTAs. But it's rare that a player can be out for a year or more, return to action and play at or near the level he played pre absence. (Hall of Fame RB John Riggins is the most notable example the leaps to mind).
Question: What do you expect from the receiving corps as a whole this year and from Ridley in particular?
BIG THINGS
Subquestion: Assuming Ridley can return to his pre injury & suspension form, how does the trio of Ridley, Kirk and Jones compare to other notable receiver groups in team history, like the 1996 group (Jimmy Smith, Keenan McCardell, Andre Rison/Willie Jackson) or 2017 (Marquise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns).
Ridley/Kirk/Zay are the first group we've seen that may rival the units led by Keenan and Jimmy.
I think they have potential to equal the production of those groups. Definitely already a tier above Lee/Allen/Hurns.
4. Tight End: One of last year's most pleasant surprises was the play of Evan Engram, who went from a bust with the New York Giants to an integral weapon in the Jaguars attack last year. Some may argue that Engram gave the Jaguars the best receiving threat at TE in team history, ahead of Marcedes Lewis, Kyle Brady, et al. He has been absent from OTAs and minicamps trying to get a new contract. The team has applied the franchise tag. This aside, there are some changes, most relevant is the addition of Strange from Penn State.
Question: Do you think we re-sign Engram to a new long term deal by the start of training camp, or will Engram play the whole year under the tag?
If they sign him it means Engram dropped his price.
No big TE deals this offseason give Evan and his agent no leverage. Good TEs got chump change, and he'll have to play on the tag or settle for a reasonable deal.
5. Offensive line- Pederson' and Rauscher's blocking schemes led to a very good year for the offensive line last year. Cam Robinson had his best year at LT since 2017. After being out most of his last two years of college due to injury and the Covid-19 and a transitional rookie year, Walker Little played well at RT (and LT when Cam Robinson was injured late in the season). Scherff had a good year by Jaguars G standards, but he was hampered by injuries last year. Once again, Tyler Shatley came to the rescue due to injury and provided some good snaps. Then rookie Luke Fortner manned the C position decently. Since then, we learned before the draft that Robinson is facing a possible six game suspension for violating the league's steroid policy. A suspension would leave Walker Little continuing at LT, rookie Anton Harrison moving in at RT. At least that's how it worked out during OTAs.
Question: How does the OL shake out in Cam Robinson's absence? Does Little continue at LT or does he return to the right? Does Harrison have the strength to be successful at RT...or possibly to shift inside to LG should Shatley and/or the unproven Blake Hance falter? What about when Cam Robinson returns?
Robinson screwed up and there's a good chance that Little and Harrison make us forget about him quickly.
Health is HUGE for this unit this year though. Depth is sketchy.
I think the line is Little / Bartch/ Fortner / Scherff / Harrison and I think it'll be slightly better than last year if they stay healthy.
Cam's job and future rely on how well young guys ahead of him dude to suspension play.
I hope we simply don't need him. He didn't play to the level of his contract last year.
I haven't heard much Bartch talk this year. Heck I haven't seen him on many rosters.
(06-19-2023, 01:22 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]If we're talking about depth and roster spots, I'm curious about tight end. Last year, the team kept 4. This offseason, they lost two (Manhertz and Arnold) and only gained one of any significance (Strange). What about the fourth spot? It's not as if there weren't opportunities. Dan Arnold took a very long time to sign as a free agent and ultimately did so for only slightly above the NFL veteran minimum. The Jaguars also had 10 draft picks on Day 3 and didn't use a single one on tight end. Do they really like Gerrit Prince so much that they didn't even bring in competition for the fourth spot? Is their plan to just to keep 3 tight ends this year?
I think they could keep three depending on what happens with the FB.
My personal "predictions" for the teams offense this year is that it will be much more potent in the passing game, I expect Lawrence to bump his numbers up to the big boy leagues and throw 30+ TDs with the addition of a legitimate #1 WR in Ridley and having more experience in Doug's system.
My biggest concern currently is the O-line, I'm not sure what to think of it as it stands. I felt when the season ended, we needed to upgrade the interior.. but then Taylor left, Cam got suspended and now rather than bolstering the weak part of the line we had to spend a first round pick on a replacement for 1 of the 2 lost tackles.. Unless Harrison is an absolute stud, and Walker Little proves to be a guy I think the line ultimately got worse until we see what we got tho it's hard to say.
(06-23-2023, 05:56 PM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: [ -> ]My personal "predictions" for the teams offense this year is that it will be much more potent in the passing game, I expect Lawrence to bump his numbers up to the big boy leagues and throw 30+ TDs with the addition of a legitimate #1 WR in Ridley and having more experience in Doug's system.
My biggest concern currently is the O-line, I'm not sure what to think of it as it stands. I felt when the season ended, we needed to upgrade the interior.. but then Taylor left, Cam got suspended and now rather than bolstering the weak part of the line we had to spend a first round pick on a replacement for 1 of the 2 lost tackles.. Unless Harrison is an absolute stud, and Walker Little proves to be a guy I think the line ultimately got worse until we see what we got tho it's hard to say.
The term you are searching for here is "elite"
In another thread you lumped the terms "generational, elite, and franchise QB" together.
These are three distinct and different classifications of QBs.
The league may have as many as 10-12 "franchise QBs" in a given season. Guys that are playing well enough to get a team to the postseason if other areas on the roster don't hold them back too much. Not all are worthy of long term deals but they play well enough to make it hard to move on from them without feeling certain about landing an upgrade.
Elite QBs are usually 3-6 guys each season. Big time production, and easily worthy of a major contract.
"Generational" QBs are guys that only come around 2 or 3 times in a generation.
Lots of folks get confused about this label and it's association with TL because he was labeled a Generational
prospect. We won't know if he's a generational QB for quite some time.
Brady, Mahomes and maaayyyybe Rodgers are the only guys catching that term from recent "generations."
For now.
You are calling for Lawrence to be a top 5 quarterback based on that TD number you claim to expect.
That would make him
"elite." Not a member of the condescending "big boy leagues."