(03-07-2024, 10:15 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: [ -> ]Let's do a sample:
Philly wants to replace Kelce, has fallen in love with JPJ (thanks Mikey). They will give you their lower 2nd rounder to move up.
Philly gets #17.
Jax gets #22 and #53. Philly's not telling you who they are picking, but you've figured it out.
Do you pull the trigger?
This would be a no-brainer since the Jaguars could still get a great pick at 22. I don't see the Eagles doing this, however, regardless of how much they've fallen in love with JPJ. However, I wouldn't hesitate to throw in one of our 4th's and hopefully they'd do the deal. For what it's worth (probably nothing), whenever I do a mock draft on Fanspeak, I begin by trading back to the Eagles and getting their 3rd round compensatory pick in return. At the least, they could still do this and use the extra pick to move back up. However, since the Eagles have two 2nd round picks, maybe they'd part with one if we add in a 4th. That would be a great way to address 3 needs (following free agency) in this draft.
(03-08-2024, 01:38 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ] (03-08-2024, 01:33 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: [ -> ]I disagree. This draft class is absolutely loaded, and we'll be able to have at least 2 players contribute immediately no matter how free agency falls. I think it's interesting to discuss passing on a possible special player to get an extra pick in the 2nd round and still pick up a starter.
The issue I see is that no one is going to offer a fair value trade for #17. Eagles seemed like an easy one to discuss, but they're probably too smart for that.
The Eagles drafted Kelces replacement 2 years ago
Yes, but is he as good as JPJ? I don't know, but the Eagles might. They also may like another player or want to get ahead of Pittsburgh. Again, Philly seemed like the most reasonable trade mock.
I'm happy to entertain another....
If we don't go oline, there are 4 players I really want at 17.
Q Mitchell, DeJean, Thomas Jr, and Newton.
(03-08-2024, 02:55 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]If we don't go oline, there are 4 players I really want at 17.
Q Mitchell, DeJean, Thomas Jr, and Newton.
I think that's reasonable, and DeJean, Thomas and Newton will be there. Q. Mitchell won't.
Let's say the 3 above are there, as well as Fautanu, Fuaga, Powers-Johnson, Guyton, and Latham. Now we're guaranteed one of them at 22. Do you do the trade with Philly for #53 and #22?
(03-08-2024, 03:13 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-08-2024, 02:55 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]If we don't go oline, there are 4 players I really want at 17.
Q Mitchell, DeJean, Thomas Jr, and Newton.
I think that's reasonable, and DeJean, Thomas and Newton will be there. Q. Mitchell won't.
Let's say the 3 above are there, as well as Fautanu, Fuaga, Powers-Johnson, Guyton, and Latham. Now we're guaranteed one of them at 22. Do you do the trade with Philly for #53 and #22?
Yes I would. I don't think Q Mitchell will be there either. There is a possibility Thomas and DeJean won't either if DeJean is fully healthy at his Pro Day and kills it which is highly likely. The Injury to Newton is something to keep eye on, hopefully he will be fully healthy at his pro day as well.
Newton is the guy I'd definitely expect to be there, even with a trade back. His injury and less than optimal size will cause him to drop some. He could turn out to be a steal, but the risk is definitely there.
A little update. The Jaguars have been award 2 compensatory picks:
96 in the 3rd round
212 in the 6th round
Carry on.
https://twitter.com/TFG_Football/status/...SrL3g&s=19
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Darius Robinson is an interesting prospect. I like the Leonard Williams comp. Wouldn't mind a trade down with him being the pick.
He checks off every area Baalke covets.
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While personally I am not a fan of trading up, trading down in certain circumstances can be favorable. Depending upon how free agency plays out we just might have some opportunities to enhance our position. Baalkie did well seizing this opportunity last year and acquire more picks. It was not his fault he failed to find a trading partner to package them to move up, that is always a crap shoot.
A few of the teams following us in the draft do have needs that are not primary to us so that can create opportunities. The further you trade back the risk increases so personally the eagles at 22 are my risk limit.
18. Cincinnati Bengals - TE
19. Los Angeles Rams - QB, LB
20. Pittsburgh Steelers - LB
21. Miami Dolphins - TE
22. Philadelphia Eagles - LB (if the replacement for center they drafted a few years ago then not center)
These are the needs for these teams from PFF that do not conflict with ours. The Steelers, Rams and and Eagles should be looking for a LB, the Bengals and Dolphins a TE. I can't see the Bengals or Rams motivated to move up unless they would pick something we want. (or in fear the others are gonna jump them) It would require someone to fall the teams feel are a cut above the players ranked on their boards lower. I don't see any LB's that fit that, but maybe a few TE's as everyone is looking for the next Kelce.
After seeing how FA has played out, it doesn't change my mind on trading down a bit. I seriously believe this team is looking defense in the first round. I would trade down 2-4 spots and grab another 3rd at least. I still see great value in the 3rd round. And I expect a few players to steal from dropping from the 2nd round.
(03-16-2024, 04:23 PM)Jagulars Wrote: [ -> ]After seeing how FA has played out, it doesn't change my mind on trading down a bit. I seriously believe this team is looking defense in the first round. I would trade down 2-4 spots and grab another 3rd at least. I still see great value in the 3rd round. And I expect a few players to steal from dropping from the 2nd round.
Trading back 2-4 spots from 17 is solidly 4th round pick compensation territory. A 3rd would normally be a massive overpay, so I seriously doubt we see such an offer. If we do, we should probably just take whoever it is that fell to 17 that’s eliciting the 3rd round offer.
(03-16-2024, 08:52 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ] (03-16-2024, 04:23 PM)Jagulars Wrote: [ -> ]After seeing how FA has played out, it doesn't change my mind on trading down a bit. I seriously believe this team is looking defense in the first round. I would trade down 2-4 spots and grab another 3rd at least. I still see great value in the 3rd round. And I expect a few players to steal from dropping from the 2nd round.
Trading back 2-4 spots from 17 is solidly 4th round pick compensation territory. A 3rd would normally be a massive overpay, so I seriously doubt we see such an offer. If we do, we should probably just take whoever it is that fell to 17 that’s eliciting the 3rd round offer.
Yep. Teams have done worse to move up. But, in that case, there will have to be picks swapped around from both sides to make it happen.
(03-16-2024, 08:52 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ] (03-16-2024, 04:23 PM)Jagulars Wrote: [ -> ]After seeing how FA has played out, it doesn't change my mind on trading down a bit. I seriously believe this team is looking defense in the first round. I would trade down 2-4 spots and grab another 3rd at least. I still see great value in the 3rd round. And I expect a few players to steal from dropping from the 2nd round.
Trading back 2-4 spots from 17 is solidly 4th round pick compensation territory. A 3rd would normally be a massive overpay, so I seriously doubt we see such an offer. If we do, we should probably just take whoever it is that fell to 17 that’s eliciting the 3rd round offer.
Spot 17 is 950 points, pick #21 is 800 so 150 difference. 3rd round pick #24 is 150. Can get in the latter part of the 3rd at a 4 spot drop. Dropping back 3 spots to pick 20 a 100 point difference. (round 4 pick #4) Yea agree if we can't get fair value just pick (unless the compensation is close and you KNOW you can get your next target)
points chart
http://www.mynfldraft.com/points.php
(03-16-2024, 09:53 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-16-2024, 08:52 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]Trading back 2-4 spots from 17 is solidly 4th round pick compensation territory. A 3rd would normally be a massive overpay, so I seriously doubt we see such an offer. If we do, we should probably just take whoever it is that fell to 17 that’s eliciting the 3rd round offer.
Spot 17 is 950 points, pick #21 is 800 so 150 difference. 3rd round pick #24 is 150. Can get in the latter part of the 3rd at a 4 spot drop. Dropping back 3 spots to pick 20 a 100 point difference. (round 4 pick #4) Yea agree if we can't get fair value just pick (unless the compensation is close and you KNOW you can get your next target)
points chart
http://www.mynfldraft.com/points.php
Yeah if you move back 4 or more you might get a late 3rd. Definitely an overpay to move back 1-3 spots though. I seem to recall us moving up a couple of spots to 5 to select Blackmon years ago and it only cost us a 4th but the points chart suggested it should have been solidly a 3rd. Miami would have to be in love with a guy to pay a 3rd to move up 4 spots to come get him is all. That said, I'm probably not interested in moving back to scoop up another 4th unless I'm sure I can get my guy ala like Baalke did last year with the trade prior to selecting Harris. 4th rounders aren't worthless, but missing out on your guy or trading back and missing on a higher tier graded player for a 4th is a significant error IMO.
(03-16-2024, 10:36 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ] (03-16-2024, 09:53 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]Spot 17 is 950 points, pick #21 is 800 so 150 difference. 3rd round pick #24 is 150. Can get in the latter part of the 3rd at a 4 spot drop. Dropping back 3 spots to pick 20 a 100 point difference. (round 4 pick #4) Yea agree if we can't get fair value just pick (unless the compensation is close and you KNOW you can get your next target)
points chart
http://www.mynfldraft.com/points.php
Yeah if you move back 4 or more you might get a late 3rd. Definitely an overpay to move back 1-3 spots though. I seem to recall us moving up a couple of spots to 5 to select Blackmon years ago and it only cost us a 4th but the points chart suggested it should have been solidly a 3rd. Miami would have to be in love with a guy to pay a 3rd to move up 4 spots to come get him is all. That said, I'm probably not interested in moving back to scoop up another 4th unless I'm sure I can get my guy ala like Baalke did last year with the trade prior to selecting Harris. 4th rounders aren't worthless, but missing out on your guy or trading back and missing on a higher tier graded player for a 4th is a significant error IMO.
Yep, yep yep. The issue is not the team you are trading with. You can normally get them to give you some insight to offense/defense and sometime position group. If they don't just turn them down. That is what happened last year with Harris. The issue really is the teams between your pick and theirs. They could possibly pick your target or trade their pick to someone who will. This year's draft is important in that if the Jags are in fact what we want them to be, it will be a long time before we get this high of draft picks.
If Bowers is there at 14 would yall jump the Colts and move up 3 spots to take Bowers? I think I would, we would get Bowers on top of keeping him out of the division. Bowers would take this offense to the next level.
(03-17-2024, 11:08 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]If Bowers is there at 14 would yall jump the Colts and move up 3 spots to take Bowers? I think I would, we would get Bowers on top of keeping him out of the division. Bowers would take this offense to the next level.
Why you gotta do this to us....lol
A real sweet bait there, but it would take a lot of premium (750 points worth) picks to do that. We need them this year for beef. So while I would normally do it
IF the O-line and D-line pipelines were full, this year is a pass. I would personally rather fill those pipelines for the future.
(03-17-2024, 11:14 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-17-2024, 11:08 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]If Bowers is there at 14 would yall jump the Colts and move up 3 spots to take Bowers? I think I would, we would get Bowers on top of keeping him out of the division. Bowers would take this offense to the next level.
Why you gotta do this to us....lol
A real sweet bait there, but it would take a lot of premium (750 points worth) picks to do that. We need them this year for beef. So while I would normally do it IF the O-line and D-line pipelines were full, this year is a pass. I would personally rather fill those pipelines for the future.
It would take 150, not 750. You could still be up the lines if you wanted to on top of moving up a couple spots fro Bowers.
(03-17-2024, 11:23 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ] (03-17-2024, 11:14 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]Why you gotta do this to us....lol
A real sweet bait there, but it would take a lot of premium (750 points worth) picks to do that. We need them this year for beef. So while I would normally do it IF the O-line and D-line pipelines were full, this year is a pass. I would personally rather fill those pipelines for the future.
It would take 150, not 750. You could still be up the lines if you wanted to on top of moving up a couple spots fro Bowers.
You are correct my best editing seem to come when others look at it. (typo) So basically our comp 3rd and a 5th. Any other year maybe, this year pass, but I am sure others may. (need those picks this year)
(03-17-2024, 11:40 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-17-2024, 11:23 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: [ -> ]It would take 150, not 750. You could still be up the lines if you wanted to on top of moving up a couple spots fro Bowers.
You are correct my best editing seem to come when others look at it. (typo) So basically our comp 3rd and a 5th. Any other year maybe, this year pass, but I am sure others may. (need those picks this year)
That chart isn't set in stone. It's something you can look at to get an idea. Each draft is a little different. Depending on the Saints board they could have a few players rated the same and a 4th this year and a 4th next year could do it.