Last year, Fowler was the majority of all mock draft's with 40% of all (on respected Websites of Course) Mock Drafts selecting him.
This year, the overwhelming selection is Jack. With a whopping 50% of all Mock Drafts selecting him. Overall the biggest consensus on this draft is:
1. Laremy Tunsil (69%)
2. Carson Wentz (51%)
3. Jalen Ramsey (43%)
4. Joey Bosa (37%)
5. Myles Jack (50%)
The Boys and Chargers have the most polarizing selections. Of course, mocks are mocks, but they are interesting to analyze. We have a general consensus 19 days before the draft. Some mocks are based on objective insider facts, so we can't necessarily discredit them completely.
Those stats mean nothing...
Quote:Those stats mean nothing...
Outside of the top 5 I agree with you. However, 4/5 of the Top 5, 2 weeks before the draft was accurately predicted by consensus last year.
I'm curious what previous years data shows.
Ive come to the conclusion as long as we get one of Bosa, Ramsey or Jack we will be ok. The second round could bring Spence and Joesph. Dont think there is a plausible scenario where we dont get two top 5 players at there postion on Def. Im ok with that.
Quote:I'm curious what previous years data shows.
It would show that he stat is completely meaningless.
That's right, any of those 3 would be great picks. Which of those will turn out to be the best pro is anybody's guess. A lot will depend on the health of each player and the scheme they will play in. It seems like right now the most likely pick will be Jack since Ramsay may go to the Chargers and Bosa to the Cowboys. What will be most interesting to me is if any two of the 3 are on the board. Regardless of who he takes, about half of the fan base will criticize him. Thankfully, he does not strike me as the kind of g.m. who cares about that. He will follow his board, unless a trade offer which is too good to pass up is made. My guess is that he'd prefer Bosa, simply because of the need at that position. Ramsay would be a close 2nd and Jack 3rd. Of course, if he ends up the pick, Caldwell would never admit what his order was.
Quote:It would show that he stat is completely meaningless.
Last year predicted 4/5 in the top 5.
Quote:Ive come to the conclusion as long as we get one of Bosa, Ramsey or Jack we will be ok. The second round could bring Spence and Joesph. Dont think there is a plausible scenario where we dont get two top 5 players at there postion on Def. Im ok with that.
Why would we take Joseph? I really don't see him as likely after the Gipson signing. I like him, but LEO/interior OL/Cb will most likely be the pick.
Spence would be amazing, but the chances he gets out of the top 20-25 is unlikely in a draft that isn't loaded with pass rushers imo. We'd have to trade up. To get from 38 into the mid 20's that'd cost a 3rd. Not sure I see us paying up to do so. Think a guy like Correa, Calhoun, etc. are more likely.
Quote:Last year predicted 4/5 in the top 5.
Doesn't mean its always that way. There has been plenty of speculation about Buckner at 3, Zeke/Jack/Bosa at 4, trade ups sound like a real possibility for a QB, etc.
Quote:Last year predicted 4/5 in the top 5.
u need more than one year for this to mean absolutely anything lol
Quote:u need more than one year for this to mean absolutely anything lol
Oh course, this is a new thing that sites have only been doing the last 2 years. I merely bring it up as something potentially interesting. Especially if it's another year of at least 4/5.
Quote:Last year predicted 4/5 in the top 5.
Well let's be honest, last year was so easy to predict. The one they got wrong was the one no one knew. This year, every pick but the Titans is a guess.
Winston Mariota Fowler Cooper was pretty much set in stone.
Quote:Last year predicted 4/5 in the top 5.
And how many predicted we pick Bortles just the year before?
Completely blows up your argument.
Quote:And how many predicted we pick Bortles just the year before?
Completely blows up your argument.
Yeah, a single disconfirming example totally destroys the idea. /sarcasm
Quote:And how many predicted we pick Bortles just the year before?
Completely blows up your argument.
Again, I'm not trying to position myself as someone who believes mocks are the true fortune tellers, I'm just merely presenting facts. 4/5 last year, and I'm very curious to see what it will be this year.
Quote:Yeah, a single disconfirming example totally destroys the idea. /sarcasm
Considering the premise was based on trying to create a statistical certainty based a single example, it does effectively destroy the argument.
Quote:Considering the premise was based on trying to create a statistical certainty based a single example, it does effectively destroy the argument.
Ahh, I missed that part where he said it was a statistical certainty, and made a 100% guarantee rather than a projection based on the accuracy of prior draft concensus picks. Maybe you could cut and paste it for me?
Quote:Ahh, I missed that part where he said it was a statistical certainty, and made a 100% guarantee rather than a projection based on the accuracy of prior draft concensus picks. Maybe you could cut and paste it for me?
Agree, not sure how he got that