Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Most of the mock drafts seem to indicate that one of either Jack, Bosa or Ramsey will somehow be available to us at 5.  This is predicated upon Tennessee staying at the # 1 overall spot and taking T Laremy Tunsil out of Ole Miss.  In his MMQB article, Peter King indicates there is a 50-50 shot at this point that the tacks trade out of the #1 overall spot.  If the tacks DO trade out of the #1 spot, it could have good, potentially great benefits to the Jaguars if the goal is one of those three players listed above.  However, if the trade down results in the wrong player being taken at 1, it could trigger the worst case scenario that many have speculated about on this board, leaving the Jaguars without Jack, Bosa or Ramsey.

 

If the tacks were to deal down with either Cleveland or Dallas in the top 5, it likely won't make too much of a difference.  Cleveland is presumed to want a QB, and the Browns and tacks switching spots would presumably lead to offensive players being taken in the top two picks (assuming Tunsil to the tacks is an accurate pairing speculation). 

 

Dallas likely would not trade up unless they wanted to assure themselves of the successor to Tony Romo, who is in his mid 30s and coming off of an injury plagued season.  If a tack-Dallas trade goes down, the best case scenario is that Dallas (QB), Cleveland (QB), and Tennessee (Tunsil)all go offense in the first four picks, which would leave the Jaguars with a choice of at least two out of the three defenders between Bosa, Jack and Ramsey. 

 

1.  Dallas-Wentz

2.  Cleveland-Goff

3.  San Diego-Tunsil, Bosa or Ramsey

4.  Tennessee-Tunsi, Bosa, or Ramsey

5. Jacksonville-Bosa, Ramsey, or Jack

 

 

However, any trade down lower than 2 could create a domino effect resulting in the Jaguars missing out on the top 3 defenders and hoping for a trade down.

 

Assuming any team lower than Cleveland trades up into that #1 overall spot for a QB, the worst case scenario might be triggered if Cleveland only likes one of the QBs at that #2 spot.  If Wentz is their guy and he's off the board when they are on the clock, maybe, maybe they stick with Goff at #2.  Maybe they try to trade down to another QB hungry team that likes Goff.  Naturally, in these first two cases, that benefits the Jaguars because it guarantees one of the three defenders are there at 5.  But there is also the possibility they take the best defensive player on the board and try to get their QB later on.  In that case, maybe San Diego bails us out by taking Tunsil or Buckner if Cleveland takes Ramsey or Bosa.  But if SD shares the consensus view that Jack, Bosa and Ramsey are the top 3 defenders and choose to take one of them (More likely Ramsey or Bosa), then Dallas stands between us and the top tier stud defender, assuming they are not the team that trades into that top spot.

 

It could go like this:

 

1.  Team X-Wentz

2.  Cleveland-Bosa

3.  San Diego-Ramsey

4. Dallas-Goff,Jack, Buckner, Elliott

 

If Dallas takes Jack here at 4 (I don't see it happening),then the nightmare scenario is the inability to make a trade down away from happening. 

 

How could the Jaguars be stuck at 5 under this scenario?

 

Let's assume Goff is still on the board at 5 and a team below Dallas traded up for Wentz (for argument's sake, let's make it San Francisco.  The draft order would be from 5-15

 

5.  Jaguars

6.  Ravens

7. Tacks (from 49ers)

8.  Philadelphia

9. Tampa

10.  NY Giants

11. Chicago

12. New Orleans

13.  Miami

14. Oakland

15. Los Angeles

 

After a tack-49er trade, no team between us and Philadelphia needs a QB.  Furthermore, you can argue Tampa, the Giants, the Saints, Miami and Oakland are all set at QB.  That would leave Chicago and Los Angeles left to bid against the Eagles for Goff's services.  But Chicago is one of those teams that rarely seems to move up in the draft, and Fox has succeeded without a stud at QB, even if you don't think highly of Cutler. 

 

Since there is no team between us and Philly that needs a QB, the only real competition is between the Eagles and Rams. and since the Rams only need to get ahead of Philadelphia, they may not need to deal with us to get there.  Worse yet, the Rams (or any other team below Philly at 8 in this scenario) interested in a QB could stand pat and take Paxton Lynch, who has been the talk of first round consideration.  If Lynch takes the competition out of the QB spot in the top ten, then the worst case scenario is realized.

 

In sum, I think for Jacksonville to have the most good options available, the tacks cannot trade out of the top 4 picks, or Cleveland has to be keen on two QBs at #2.

I believe if someone trades up for a QB to jump the Browns then Tunsil should be in play for Cleveland as well. They tried to trade Joe Thomas last year and just lost their RT in FA.

Quote:I believe if someone trades up for a QB to jump the Browns then Tunsil should be in play for Cleveland as well. They tried to trade Joe Thomas last year and just lost their RT in FA.

That is a good point.  If true, that should also bode well for us if Ramsey, Jack or Bosa are at the top of our boards.

Great post, Bullseye. 

 

I'm not that worried about what can happen, because it seems to me, odds are very greatly in favor of us getting one of Jack, Ramsey, or Bosa.   Failing that, and failing a trade down, there is still a fallback position of Buckner or Hargreaves. 

 

We'd have to wind up at #5 with both QBs still on the board, and no one willing to come up to get one of them. 

 

So I don't see "stuck at 5" as any kind of disaster.   Not optimal, but there will still be players there that I personally would find perfectly acceptable. 

 

But your analysis of how it can play out is very good. 

Considering trades involving the number 1 pick are oft talked about but almost never happen, I'd say the odds are significantly less than 50-50.

Tacks won't trade down. I'd sit there and call their bluff all day long.

At this point I think people are being overly paranoid about Ramsey and Jack being gone.  However, I do think Bosa will be gone when we pick.

 

I don't believe that a defensive back has gone top 4 ever, it seems unlikely for Ramsey to break that trend.

 

Jack probably could go top 4, but once again players at his position are rarely taken that high in the modern era.

 

I think it will go something like this:

Tenn- Tunsil or trade down to a QB needy team

Clev- QB or Bosa

SD- Tunsil/ Buckner

Dal- Bosa/ QB/ Buckner

 

Premium positions rule the top 5 typically.  I think 1 of these non-premier positions going top 5 would be unusual (Jags at 5).  Not even considering 2 of them going top 4

I can see Dallas or someone trading up to get Wentz in front of Cleveland, I just don't think it's 50/50 odds like King suggests.  The tacks would be foolish to come off the pick for anything but a king's ransom and the GM of a QB needy team would have to have brass balls to pay the king's ransom to move up.  And like I said above, this scenario is talked about every year and it just doesn't happen.  

 

The smart pick for Tennessee is Tunsil to protect their investment in what they have to believe is their franchise guy at QB (who coincidentally got hurt last year).  The only way they trade picks and still likely get their guy is if they swap with Cleveland who may fear the Dallas scenario happening and want to ensure they get their guy in Wentz and then Tennessee takes their guy in Tunsil at 2nd overall and likely picks up Cleveland's 2nd round pick.  I'm not sure what the value chart says you do here but if its anything more than that for Cleveland to move up I don't think they do it and even giving up the 2nd might be too much considering you have to assume Tennessee isn't drafting another QB in back to back years and the price would have to be too steep for anyone else to move up.  

 

Dallas is a prime candidate to draft a QB because how often do you pick in the top 4 and already have a relatively talented roster like they do?  And with their recent experience last year of having terrible backup QB play which led to them drafting where they are now, you have to believe they don't want to go into the season without someone on the bench that they'd feel comfortable having to play if necessary.  And lastly, Jerrah won't be firing himself or his son any time soon if he botches up this potential trade scenario.  A motivating factor for Dallas could be that Goff may not be top 5 material based on size alone.  He's got the height but he's a little thin overall and has relatively small hands.  Wentz has prototypical size and will likely go in the top 2 picks.  Cleveland would be foolish to pass on him even with the RGIII signing.  They'd have to feel pretty good about their QB situation (but not much else) if they rolled into the season with Wentz and RGIII.  And you know a new coach in Hugh Jackson is going to want to get his QB pretty early in his tenure.  I doubt he believes his guy is RGIII at this moment.  I actually think a Cleveland/Tennessee swap of picks is more likely than anyone else moving up, but I still believe it's even more likely that the top 4 picks order remains unchanged.

Quote:At this point I think people are being overly paranoid about Ramsey and Jack being gone.  However, I do think Bosa will be gone when we pick.

 

I don't believe that a defensive back has gone top 4 ever, it seems unlikely for Ramsey to break that trend.

 

Jack probably could go top 4, but once again players at his position are rarely taken that high in the modern era.

 

I think it will go something like this:

Tenn- Tunsil or trade down to a QB needy team

Clev- QB or Bosa

SD- Tunsil/ Buckner

Dal- Bosa/ QB/ Buckner

 

Premium positions rule the top 5 typically.  I think 1 of these non-premier positions going top 5 would be unusual (Jags at 5).  Not even considering 2 of them going top 4

DBs have gone in the top four-admittedly a rare occurrence.

 

In 1991, the Browns selected S Eric Turner 2nd overall.  The same draft saw CB Bruce Pickens selected by Atlanta 3rd overall.  The Raiders took Charles Woodson 4th overall in 1998.  The year before, Seattle took Shawn Springs 3rd overall.  Bennie Blades was taken 3rd overall in 1988 by Detroit.  In 1981, Kenny Easley went 4th overall to Seattle.

 

If you expanded the range by one-top 5 instead of top 4-it's still rare, but more common.

 

Patrick Peterson was taken 5th overall in 2011.  The year before saw Eric Berry taken by the Chiefs #5 overall.  The Skins took S Sean Taylor in 2004.  Dallas took Terrence Newman 5th overall in 2003.  Quentin Jammer was 5th overall in 2002.  Bryant Westbrook went 5th overall in 1997.  Terrell Buckley went 5th overall in 1992.  Todd Lyght joined Turner and Pickens as top 5 DBs taken in 1991.  Deion Sanders was taken 5th overall in that great top half of the 1989 draft.  Rickey Dixon went to the Benglas 5th overall in 1988.

 

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/db

In my eyes, it is now boiling down to Jack or Bosa.  I think the Titans and Browns picks are locks. And as much as I think the Chargers want to put an emphasis on protecting Rivers, it seems OT Stanley has dropped off a little, and Chargers will pick Ramsey.

 

 

To me, the key here is going to be Dallas.  Are they blowing smoke when they say they don't like Bosa? Jack is now up to #2 on a lot of lists for overall prospects, while Bosa has soured a little.  And DE is deep, with good players available at the top of round 2.  I think they just might take Jack and go DE in the 2nd.  Ezekiel Elliot is the wild card there at #4 too.  Yes, the Cowboys signed Alfred Morris, but if i were them, I would do anything I could to keep Elliott from the Eagles.  

 

 

 

1. TEN - OT L. Tunsil

2. CLE - QB C. Wentz or Goff

3. S.D. - DB J. Ramsey

4. DAL - Bosa/Jack

5. JAC - Jack/Bosa

Agree with you jagabc.  I think the top 5 should look almost exactly like that assuming no one trades up.  It all depends on how Dallas feels about Gregory and Lawrence.  They do run a 4-3 though, so they may want those two to cover the edge and Bosa to be a 5-tech end on the other side.  That would shore up their line pretty well.

Quote:DBs have gone in the top four-admittedly a rare occurrence.


In 1991, the Browns selected S Eric Turner 2nd overall. The same draft saw CB Bruce Pickens selected by Atlanta 3rd overall. The Raiders took Charles Woodson 4th overall in 1998. The year before, Seattle took Shawn Springs 3rd overall. Bennie Blades was taken 3rd overall in 1988 by Detroit. In 1981, Kenny Easley went 4th overall to Seattle.


If you expanded the range by one-top 5 instead of top 4-it's still rare, but more common.


Patrick Peterson was taken 5th overall in 2011. The year before saw Eric Berry taken by the Chiefs #5 overall. The Skins took S Sean Taylor in 2004. Dallas took Terrence Newman 5th overall in 2003. Quentin Jammer was 5th overall in 2002. Bryant Westbrook went 5th overall in 1997. Terrell Buckley went 5th overall in 1992. Todd Lyght joined Turner and Pickens as top 5 DBs taken in 1991. Deion Sanders was taken 5th overall in that great top half of the 1989 draft. Rickey Dixon went to the Benglas 5th overall in 1988.

<a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/db'>http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/db</a>

Well, I stand thoroughly corrected on that point. Thank you for looking all of these examples up.


I do feel that your list should make you feel more comfortable than ever though. The last top 4 DB was 18 years ago, history suggests Ramsey is there when we pick.

Per Rotoworld:

Quote:NFL.com's Lance Zierlein reports the Eagles are "trying to find a way to get" North Dakota State QB Carson Wentz.


"I know (coach) Doug Pederson loves him," Zierlein said in a radio interview. "I know that from people behind the scenes, in the know. That's who he wants and that's who he likes. It's just going to be tough." It's going to be tough because there's a chance Wentz doesn't make it past the Browns at No. 2 overall. The Eagles pick at No. 8. With vast resources already committed to Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel, the Eagles probably can't surrender the kind of compensation that would be required to move up.

Related: Eagles


Source: NJ.com

Quote:Per Rotoworld:

its looking more and more likely that Bosa or Jack falls to us

Quote:its looking more and more likely that Bosa or Jack falls to us

This would be a win win. I know people are down on Bosale, but I would be thrilled with the pick.

If the Eagles really want Wentz as bad as this report says, then that could be very good for us if Bosa, Jack, Ramsey, and Tunsil are all off the board.   Because that means Wentz is still on the board, and Philly at #8 wants him real bad, and they're afraid San Fran at #7 will take him. 

 

Imagine if in that scenario we trade down with one of those teams, and they take Wentz, we could still get a real good player at #7 or #8, perhaps Buckner or Hargreaves, and get an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick in the process. 

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/201...son-wentz/

Quote:If the Eagles really want Wentz as bad as this report says, then that could be very good for us if Bosa, Jack, Ramsey, and Tunsil are all off the board.   Because that means Wentz is still on the board, and Philly at #8 wants him real bad, and they're afraid San Fran at #7 will take him. 

 

Imagine if in that scenario we trade down with one of those teams, and they take Wentz, we could still get a real good player at #7 or #8, perhaps Buckner or Hargreaves, and get an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick in the process. 

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/201...son-wentz/

FYI, Philly does not have a 2nd round pick this year.  They traded it to the Rams for Bradford.

 

I'm thinking Wentz will be long gone by our pick.

 

A good alternate scenario is that the Eagles and 49ers are hot after Goff or Lynch, but to be honest, I don't see the Jaguars trading down.

If a team outside the top five trades with the Titans (presumably for a QB) then I wonder what that means for Tunsil.


I think the Brown would still go QB or the top defensive player on their board and the Cowboys don't really need to strengthen their offensive line, so that just leaves the Chargers.


Could the man we assumed would be the number one pick slip out of the top five altogether?

Quote:If a team outside the top five trades with the Titans (presumably for a QB) then I wonder what that means for Tunsil.


I think the Brown would still go QB or the top defensive player on their board and the Cowboys don't really need to strengthen their offensive line, so that just leaves the Chargers.


Could the man we assumed would be the number one pick slip out of the top five altogether?

Chargers or maybe even Browns could take him.

I'm starting to get more and more confident one of our big 3 (Jack Bosa Ramsey) will be there at 5. Tinsel and a QB are all but guaranteed to go before us.