Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

I'll say it again, the same reason darn near every other post on here is about wanting to trade down is the same reason we won't be able to. 

Quote:I did not start this thread to be a referendum on the legitimacy of Alabama football.

 

That said, there have been plenty, and I mean PLENTY of successful Alabama football players in the NFL.

 

QB-Bart Starr*$+

      Joe Namath*$+

       Ken Stabler*$+

RB-Shaun Alexander*

       Eddie Lacy*

TE Ozzie Newsome*+

WR-Julio Jones*

WR Don Hutson+!  On NFLs 75th Anniversary team

LT Chris Samuels*

LG John Hannah*+! -On NFLs 75th Anniversary team

C  Dwight Stephenson*+

OLB Derrick Thomas*+

OLB Cornelius Bennett*

LB EJ Junior*

D'Onta Hightower*$

Landon Collins*

Ha Ha Clinton Dix*

 

Key:

 

*-Pro Bowl; $ Super bowl champion; + Hall of Famer; !-on NFLs 75th anniversary team.

 

This is far from an all inclusive list

I'm talking Saban era, since they've been running an Eastern Bloc type steroid program. Many many busts. Your list goes back to the 60's. I'm not talking about John Hannah amd Joe Namath.


I'd largely stay away from their guys these days. Landon Collins is the exception, not the rule.

Quote:I'm talking Saban era, since they've been running an Eastern Bloc type steroid program. Many many busts. Your list goes back to the 60's. I'm not talking about John Hannah amd Joe Namath.


I'd largely stay away from their guys these days. Landon Collins is the exception, not the rule.

So which Alabama players under Saban have been busted for steroids?

None, but plenty have just been busts.

Quote:None, but plenty have just been busts.

1.  That's going to happen when you have so many picked.  I'd still much rather take my chances with an Alabama player than a guy from, say, Indiana.

 

2.  If no Alabama players have been popped for steroids, etc.,then why mention that in association with them?  Why malign the program by comparing it to cold war era Eastern Bloc athletics?

 

3.  What does any of this have to do with trading down?

Quote:Reading the tea leaves, it appears that QBs are not likely to get drafted in the top three, and likely won't go before Buffalo at 10.

 

Furthermore, as free agency progresses, we see Cleveland has significantly strengthened their OL, the 49ers have added to WR with Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin, but still in need of a QB, and the Bears let two of their QBs and WR Alshon Jeffery walk while signing CB Prince Amukumara to a one year deal, S Q Demps from Houston, and signed Mike Glennon from Tampa.

 

Accordingly, we could see the top 3 draft picks look something like this:

 

1.  Cleveland-Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A & M

2. San Francisco/Washington, Jonathan Allen, DL Alabama

3. Chicago-Solomon Thomas, DL, Stanford

 

Now given the talent available, it is conceivable the Bears could go Lattimore, Hooker or Allen.  But let's assume for the purposes of this discussion the top three picks are DL.

 

Where does this leave us at 4?  You can make the argument that value does not meet the biggest needs on the team under this scenario.  Jacksonville's biggest need is OL.  There appear to be no stud OLs that are worthy of that pick.  Some argue that RB has been devalued over the years, and Cook's and Fournette's somewhat ordinary 40 times diminishes their value in this draft, even though Jacksonville arguably has a huge need at RB.  While Lattimore, Hooker and Allen would all be welcome additions to this defense, they represent positions that, at face value, do not represent need, given the acquisitions of Bouye and Church this year and Gipson and Ramsey last year.

 

Under this scenario, a natural inclination would be to trade down.

 

But how viable of a proposition is it for the Jaguars to trade down under these circumstances?

 

It is common knowledge that trades imagined on a message board are far more viable than in real life.  Having dispensed with that caveat, let's explore how a trade down might happen for the Jaguars.

 

As it currently stands, the draft order starting with the Jaguars looks like this.

 

4.  Jaguars

5.  tacks (from Rams)

6.  N.Y. Jets

7. L.A. Chargers

8. Carolina

9.  Cincinnati

10.  Buffalo

11.  New Orleans

12.  Arizona

 

Of these teams, there are 3, maybe 6 teams with a serious need at DB:  Tennessee, the Jets, the Chargers, Buffalo, New Orleans and Arizona.

 

Tennessee has signed CB Logan Ryan and SS Jonathan Cyprien, but there is question as to how much these signings actually represent upgrades.  But assuming Cyprien rules out Adams and Ryan solves one CB spot, Tennessee still needs a CB opposite Ryan and a FS opposite Cyprien, they sit at a prime position to land their choice of one of the DBs listed above.

 

If anyone wants to guarantee they will get their DB-especially Lattimore or Hooker- they will have to jump ahead of Tennessee to do it.

 

With Ryan era draft misses at CB with Dee Milliner and Kyle Wilson, and the decline and release of Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, the Jets are starving for a CB.  It should not be cost prohibitive for them to  deal up to 4 to ensure Lattimore is theirs, and they have a history of trading up to get their guy.

 

The Chargers are not so bad at CB as the Jets.  But Verrett is recovering from a torn ACL, Brandon Flowers also ended the year on IR, and they have a need at S.  With the Bolts now running Bradley's scheme, there may be a need for a big CB that can press or a fast, rangy playmaking FS as he attempts to replicate the Seahawks defense.  Again, they may have to jump ahead of Tennessee to get their guy.

 

Buffalo just lost CB Stephon Gilmore and released S Aaron Williams.  They signed DB Micah Hyde from the Packers, but he isn't enough.  A defensive coach like McDermott who had success in Carolina with a stud CB in Josh Norman may want one of his own in Buffalo.

 

New Orleans finished 32nd against the pass.  They need pass rushers, but they also need guys that can cover.  

 

At face value, the Cards would seem okay at DB.  But Peterson aside, Matthieu has had injuries, they just lost Tony Jefferson.

 

The quality and depth at CB and S in this draft provides disincentive for these teams to trade up, especially if they have to move too far and give up too much.

 

But I could see a scenario where the Jaguars move down to 6 or 7, pick up an extra pick, and still end up with a Fournette, Cook, or maybe one of those DBs for themselves.

 

Your thoughts, as always, are welcome.

 

I absolutely agree with all that, and I agree with you, we are not going to be able to charge full price for this trade, because according to the experts, there are loads of good DBs in this draft, and that will greatly lessen the desperation that teams feel to get up to #4.   I think we might get a 3rd round pick out of it.   I would do it, for sure.   I don't like sitting at #4 in that scenario.  

 

Also, it's interesting to see that almost all those teams right below us already have quarterbacks. 

 

Personally, I don't much like Dalvin Cook in the top 20.   So I would ask, if we dropped a few spots thinking we're still going to get Fournette, what is the possibility that either someone in front of us takes him, or someone then trades up and jumps over us and takes him?   I took a look at the Jets' depth chart, and it looks like their starting RB is Matt Forte'.  

 

So to me, if we stick at 4 and take Fournette, it's a reach in my opinion, but if we drop down to 7 or 8 and Fournette is gone, the next best RB or OL is an even bigger reach. 

Quote:I absolutely agree with all that, and I agree with you, we are not going to be able to charge full price for this trade, because according to the experts, there are loads of good DBs in this draft, and that will greatly lessen the desperation that teams feel to get up to #4.   I think we might get a 3rd round pick out of it.   I would do it, for sure.   I don't like sitting at #4 in that scenario.  

 

Also, it's interesting to see that almost all those teams right below us already have quarterbacks. 

 

Personally, I don't much like Dalvin Cook in the top 20.   So I would ask, if we dropped a few spots thinking we're still going to get Fournette, what is the possibility that either someone in front of us takes him, or someone then trades up and jumps over us and takes him?   I took a look at the Jets' depth chart, and it looks like their starting RB is Matt Forte'.  

 

So to me, if we stick at 4 and take Fournette, it's a reach in my opinion, but if we drop down to 7 or 8 and Fournette is gone, the next best RB or OL is an even bigger reach.

Given your scenario, I'd strongly consider OJ Howard. He's going to be a monster, and Blake bottles yada yada.

Yeah, I'd be totally good with Howard in a trade back scenario also

Quote:Yeah, I'd be totally good with Howard in a trade back scenario also

Yeah, I'd be totally good with Howard NOT in a trade back scenario. 

Quote:Yeah, I'd be totally good with Howard NOT in a trade back scenario.

I could get behind it depending who was there. I don't think I can pull the trigger on him over Thomas though

Trade scenario: Saints move up to 4 and Jags get 11 and 32. Is that fair? Would the Saints even offer that? Are they looking to move up?

Quote:Trade scenario: Saints move up to 4 and Jags get 11 and 32. Is that fair? Would the Saints even offer that? Are they looking to move up?

They are looking for pass rush help according to Payton.

 

The Saints could stay where they are and possibly land a guy like Charlton or Takk McKinley and hall all the pass rush they can get.

 

Now if they want Solomon Thomas...I wouldn't mind going down to 11 if it got us 32....or even their 2nd round pick.

Quote:Trade scenario: Saints move up to 4 and Jags get 11 and 32. Is that fair? Would the Saints even offer that? Are they looking to move up?

Interesting scenario. Comes out to almost even looking at draft trade value charts.

Quote:Yeah, I'd be totally good with Howard NOT in a trade back scenario. 

 

 

That's crazy. As little as we use a TE and as bad as our QB play has been, that would be a wasted pick.

Quote:Trade scenario: Saints move up to 4 and Jags get 11 and 32. Is that fair? Would the Saints even offer that? Are they looking to move up?

 

 

I'd do that trade all day, everyday and twice on Sunday. I then take one of those picks and try to flip it for a 2018 first rounder. 

Quote:That's crazy. As little as we use a TE and as bad as our QB play has been, that would be a wasted pick.

Agreed. The higher picks would be better used on upgrading the offensive line.


I think Njoku is and will be better as a pro but that's a different conversation.

I wouldn't claim it to be good value, but I wouldn't be upset at all with OJ Howard at 4. I like it a good bit more than drafting Fournette there.

Quote:I wouldn't claim it to be good value, but I wouldn't be upset at all with OJ Howard at 4. I like it a good bit more than drafting Fournette there.

Ivory - (1) 100 yard game


Yeldon - (0) 100 yard game


Grant - (1) 100 yard game


Fournette would be refreshing around here. No player will impact Bortles more.

A couple of recent developments could impact the Jaguars ability to trade down.

 

1.  Tennessee lost out on Brandin Cooks and most of the viable WRs in free agency are gone.  Furthermore they signed Logan Ryan from NE.  Right now, WR and FS, and possibly still CB, are their biggest needs.  Tennessee could go WR at 5 now, but they still have enough deficiencies in the secondary to justify a pick there.  So not only will teams need to consider trading ahead of them to ensure the DB they desire, but if there is a WR hungry team (Buffalo) they will need to deal up.

 

2.  CB Sidney Jones, who was a first round draft prospect, apparently tore his achilles tendon doing drills.  If true, there is no way he is drafted in the top 3 rounds.  The the depth is still at that position, but the quality at the top took a hit.

Question:  Suppose, as is seemingly the case every year (and certainly last year) as the draft approaches, QB desperate teams decide they want to move up to get their player.  Numbers in parentheses represent trade value for pick.

 

Three teams-the Jets, Browns and Bills-make an offer for #4. (1800)

 

The Jets offer the #6 (1600) overall & #39 (510)

 

The Browns offer the #12 (1200), #33 (580), and a 5th round pick #175 (21.4)

 

Another team, the Bills, wish to trade up for another WR, and replicate the 2014 draft swap with Cleveland, offering the 10th overall in 2017 (1300), a 1st in 2018 (460-equivalent to a 2nd round pick this year) and a 4th in 2018(29, equivalent to a 5th round pick this year).

 

Which offer would you take and why?

 

Who would you hope to draft with the new picks?

 

Would your answer change if the 49ers or Bears took a QB at 2 and/or 3?