In light of all the "Advanced Metrics" that are getting thrown around recently, I wanted to see if there was any growth to Bortles' performance in regards to some of the more "Classical" statistics. Namely, Completion Percentage (Comp %), Yards, Touchdowns (TD), Interceptions thrown (INT), Passer Rating (Rating) and Yards per Attempt (Y/A).
To give perspective to the numbers I thought it would be good to see the values viewed in four game chunks or quarters of the season. I felt that this would smooth out the "ups 'n downs" that are so prevalent in football statistics, and give a cleaner look at the regression / progression over time. Also, I broke out a separate four-game group where I replaced the Baltimore game with the most recent Indianapolis game in order to give a real time (RT) view.
I will admit that I went into this with expectations, if not outright bias, but the numbers did pan out to what I was thinking was going to occur; in most every category, Bortles has shown growth over each quarter played so far in the season. The breakout is shown below:
<p style="margin-left:40px;">
Comp % (1) 54.3
(2) 57.8
(3) 61.7
(RT) 62.8
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Yards (1) 249
(2) 299.25
(3) 270.25
(RT) 285.75
<p style="margin-left:40px;">
TD (1) 1.5
(2) 2.75
(3) 2.5
(RT) 2.75
<p style="margin-left:40px;">
INT (1) 0.75
(2) 1.75
(3) 0.75
(RT) 0.5
<p style="margin-left:40px;">
Rating (1) 80
(2) 89.45
(3) 94.45
(RT) 106.65
<p style="margin-left:40px;">
Y/A (1) 6.5
(2) 7.8
(3) 7.0
(RT) 8.0
<p style="margin-left:40px;">
Comp % is on a steady upswing and has peaked in (RT) as has INT and Rating. Yards fluctuates, but without looking into this further I suspect that is typical of that particular stat. TD took a dip in (3), but has gotten back to it's (2) level over the past four games. Y/A is at it's peak right now, but it dipped a bit in (3), just like TD did.
One conclusion that I feel justified in making after reviewing this is that regardless of how Bortles started, he is definitely progressing over the season, as should be expected.
Pastor Deacon with the wise drop one mo' time
$$$$
NIIIICEEE! Very cool to see it broken down that way. Clearly he's progressed through out the season as your research reveals. This is really good to see. I feared he would fall into a late season slump like he did last season, but obviously that's not happened. This really bodes well for next season.
One thing that I didn't consider was the "return" of J. Thomas to the starting lineup. Thomas started showing up in the Box Score in Week Five, or the start of the Second Quartile. There is a bump there in every category with the exception of INT which went way way way over a value of 1.
I wonder how much impact on Bortles game Thomas had.
Quote:Pastor Deacon with the wise drop one mo' time
$$$$
I ain't no Pastor, I just dress like one.
I like the word "quartile."
Quote:I like the word "quartile."
Right?!?!?! I looked it up this morning and here I was thinking it was something you kept in your bathroom, but no! It actually works here!
Quote:One thing that I didn't consider was the "return" of J. Thomas to the starting lineup. Thomas started showing up in the Box Score in Week Five, or the start of the Second Quartile. There is a bump there in every category with the exception of INT which went way way way over a value of 1.
I wonder how much impact on Bortles game Thomas had.
I ain't no Pastor, I just dress like one.
Probably a fair amount. Weren't at least a couple of those ints from throws forced to JT before they had chemistry? He also really helped open up our young WRs a fair amount, lots of film reviews to show that.
Quote:Probably a fair amount. Weren't at least a couple of those ints from throws forced to JT before they had chemistry? He also really helped open up our young WRs a fair amount, lots of film reviews to show that.
You bring up an interesting point. When Thomas got on the field, the Offense had to readjust so to speak to accommodate him. Did that mean that they hit the reset button in terms of production? As of now, they have been pretty much stable in terms of personnel over eight games, but the numbers over that time frame actually drop in terms of Bortles' production.
What effect will Yeldon's absence, albeit supposed to be short-lived, have on the numbers?
Outstanding work, Deacon.
'preciate it Bullseye.
I'd like to know however, what are your thoughts on Bortles? Is he just lucky with his poor decisions or do you feel like he is starting to really come into his own and understand what playing QB in the NFL is really like?
But his QBR was 3.8 though s/
The kid has it, and Greg Olson has done a great job
Passer rating improvement is very impressive. I'm sure comp % is assisting that.
You can only be "lucky" sometimes. It averages out in the end. His numbers speak for themselves. Nobody lucks into 30 to 13 TD to INT ratio.
My wish for this season is to have Bortles continue improving on that ratio. Would be nice if he finished with something like 36 TDs to 15 INTs.
Quote:You can only be "lucky" sometimes. It averages out in the end. His numbers speak for themselves.
Nobody lucks into 30 to 13 TD to INT ratio.
My wish for this season is to have Bortles continue improving on that ratio. Would be nice if he finished with something like 36 TDs to 15 INTs.
I agree, and I think that your statement is backed up by the fact that he has now played two separate teams twice this season in Tennessee and Indianapolis. Granted, those are not extremely stout Defenses, but those teams did have film and playing experience on their side against him, and his production went up in both cases.
Sshhhhhh....The Baconator is coming....
Quote:Sshhhhhh....The Baconator is coming....
Meh. Let him come. These are stand alone statistics that have no subjective bias to them. My grouping may seem like it will tilt things a bit, but you can do the same for any player.
Besides, this is more of a progress thread than a status thread. Is he great? I dunno and I don't care to state one way or another. He is getting better though, that can't be denied.
Of course the uncontrolled variable in this case is the status of the oppenent he was playing per week of stats. I know relative rankings on that count are middle of the pack (some had good pass defense, like Titans, some had pretty bad) and so may not be a big factor, but a team could have played lights out earlier in the year but regressed in pass defense by the time we played them.
Controlling for these starts to get into the advanced stat arena, but I feel like Football Outsiders DVOA style stat is probably the best at that sort of ranking. They use quantitative factors instead of the subjective calls PFF and QBR use, and I believe Blake grades out pretty well with DVOA style results as well, but I haven't checked recently.
Quote:Of course the uncontrolled variable in this case is the status of the oppenent he was playing per week of stats. I know relative rankings on that count are middle of the pack (some had good pass defense, like Titans, some had pretty bad) and so may not be a big factor, but a team could have played lights out earlier in the year but regressed in pass defense by the time we played them.
Controlling for these starts to get into the advanced stat arena, but I feel like Football Outsiders DVOA style stat is probably the best at that sort of ranking. They use quantitative factors instead of the subjective calls PFF and QBR use, and I believe Blake grades out pretty well with DVOA style results as well, but I haven't checked recently.
Well, apparently I was wrong and his grades isn't all that good via DVOA. However it doesn't show season progress regardless so I think Deacon's collection is much more meaningful in that department.
Quote:Of course the uncontrolled variable in this case is the status of the opponent he was playing per week of stats
. I know relative rankings on that count are middle of the pack (some had good pass defense, like Titans, some had pretty bad) and so may not be a big factor, but a team could have played lights out earlier in the year but regressed in pass defense by the time we played them.
Controlling for these starts to get into the advanced stat arena, but I feel like Football Outsiders DVOA style stat is probably the best at that sort of ranking. They use quantitative factors instead of the subjective calls PFF and QBR use, and I believe Blake grades out pretty well with DVOA style results as well, but I haven't checked recently.
Well, apparently I was wrong and his grades isn't all that good via DVOA. However it doesn't show season progress regardless so I think Deacon's collection is much more meaningful in that department.
Your point above is why I looked at the values in four-game chunks. I felt that it would more accurately show how he performed over a slate of games rather than just against one opponent. Also, remember that I was not trying to point out whether or not Bortles is "good" or even how he stacked up against his peers, as DVOA attempts to do. But rather to see if he is
improving.
A subtle point perhaps, but one I thought warranted pointing out.
DVOA is explained
here via the Football Outsiders website and while DVOA is a really neat stat, from what I understand there are still some subjective parts to it as it requires someone to view and grade each play.
Quote:Meh. Let him come. These are stand alone statistics that have no subjective bias to them. My grouping may seem like it will tilt things a bit, but you can do the same for any player.
Besides, this is more of a progress thread than a status thread. Is he great? I dunno and I don't care to state one way or another. He is getting better though, that can't be denied.
But they're not advanced metrics!!!!!!!!!!