Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Quote:So what if we lose and the colts lose?

 

we'd still be alive.  The only way we are eliminated after this weekend is if we lose and if the Colts win.

Quote:if we lose we'd be done because I think the Texans and the Colts would have to lose out their last two....HIGHLY unlikely

 

 

correct me if I'm wrong someone

yeah... if we lose to ATL, we must win out and the tinhorns and clots will both have to lose out

tinhorns to us and the tacks

clots to the phins and the tacks

 

we'd be banking on the tacks playing pretty good down the stretch....

 

I thought Houston really had the inside track, with probably the best D of all teams..

but Watt has a club and Hoyer is down again...

 

Thought the clots might lose out after their horrible showing to us...

but with games against struggling franchises to end the season....

anything could happen.

 

We actually have the tougher games since we have to face 2 offensive units and a road division trip against a tough D.

We'll earn it if we get it.

Quote:yeah... if we lose to ATL, we must win out and the tinhorns and clots will both have to lose out

tinhorns to us and the tacks

clots to the phins and the tacks

 

 

 

actually we could win a 3 way tiebreaker at 7-9 if the texans beat the colts, and the titans beat both of them.  the colts can beat the dolphins and it wouldnt matter.

 

if the Texans beat the Colts this weekend, us losing to the Falcons isnt a deal breaker.  the only thing that would be different is the Colts would have to lose to the Titans in week 17 whereas if we beat the Falcons we would need the Colts to lose to either the Dolphins or Titans, wouldnt matter which one.

Quote:actually we could win a 3 way tiebreaker at 7-9 if the texans beat the colts, and the titans beat both of them.  the colts can beat the dolphins and it wouldnt matter.

 

if the Texans beat the Colts this weekend, us losing to the Falcons isnt a deal breaker.  the only thing that would be different is the Colts would have to lose to the Titans in week 17 whereas if we beat the Falcons we would need the Colts to lose to either the Dolphins or Titans, wouldnt matter which one.

nice, i missed that one...

 

banking on the tacks to be good enough to beat the tinhorns and clots at the end though? tough askins

Quote:that Houston needs to win Sunday?

 

I think that would present the easiest scenario for us to WIN THE WHOLE DANG ###ING THANG (in my Jake Taylor voice)

 

I liked the original version of Jake's statement better.

Quote:nice, i missed that one...


banking on the tacks to be good enough to beat the tinhorns and clots at the end though? tough askins

Yea, chances are slim. Only if we would of won at least one more game which we could have.

@Pastor Deacon,

 

I do to, but I don't curse, homey

Quote:Yea, chances are slim. Only if we would of won at least one more game which we could of.

Yeah... if we coulda had Scobee for the first clots game

or the jests game the refs stole from us...

or the Bucs game where everyone forgot to tackle...

Thinking about it more, we cannot finish tied with Houston at 8-8 and win the division, even if we beat them to end the season.

 

Houston finishing 8-8 means they would have gone 2-1 in their last three games.  Their last three games are all divisional games, which would place their divisional record at 4-2, which is better than our divisional record.

 

Indy finishing 8-8 also means they would have gone 2-1 in their last three games.  Two of their last three games are divisional games (Houston and Tennessee).  This would place their divisional record at worst 4-2, which is better than our best possible divisional record of 3-3.

 

What if we all finish 7-9?

 

A 7-9 finish for Houston means they would have gone 1-2 in the last three games.  If one of the two losses is to Indy, that would give Indy the division based on the divisional record.  Houston would have to beat Indy then lose to Tennessee and us to close the season.  That would give them a 3-3 divisional record.

 

A 7-9 record for Indy also means they would have to go 1-2 the last three games.  Both of those two losses would have to be their divisional games.  That would give them and Jacksonville identical 3-3 divisional records, assuming Jacksonville went 2-1 down the stretch, beating Houston in week 17. 

 

 

If Indy beats Houston, they would need to lose the last two (Miami and Tennessee) and Jacksonville would have to win out for us to beat them out.

 

 

I have yet to process the lower tiebreakers.  Give me a few, and I will post.

How about they tie?

Quote:Thinking about it more, we cannot finish tied with Houston at 8-8 and win the division, even if we beat them to end the season.

 

Houston finishing 8-8 means they would have gone 2-1 in their last three games.  Their last three games are all divisional games, which would place their divisional record at 4-2, which is better than our divisional record.

 

Indy finishing 8-8 also means they would have gone 2-1 in their last three games.  Two of their last three games are divisional games (Houston and Tennessee).  This would place their divisional record at worst 4-2, which is better than our best possible divisional record of 3-3.

 

What if we all finish 7-9?

 

A 7-9 finish for Houston means they would have gone 1-2 in the last three games.  If one of the two losses is to Indy, that would give Indy the division based on the divisional record.  Houston would have to beat Indy then lose to Tennessee and us to close the season.  That would give them a 3-3 divisional record.

 

A 7-9 record for Indy also means they would have to go 1-2 the last three games.  Both of those two losses would have to be their divisional games.  That would give them and Jacksonville identical 3-3 divisional records, assuming Jacksonville went 2-1 down the stretch, beating Houston in week 17. 

 

 

If Indy beats Houston, they would need to lose the last two (Miami and Tennessee) and Jacksonville would have to win out for us to beat them out.

 

 

I have yet to process the lower tiebreakers.  Give me a few, and I will post.

 

If both Jax and Houston finish at 7-9 and Indy is at 6-10, we would win the tiebreaker.  Houston would have to beat Indy in that scenario and would have had to lose to both Tenn and us.  We could go 1-1 against Atl and NO and we'd win the division.

 

If all three of us (Jax, Houston, and Indy) finish at 7-9, we only win the tiebreaker if Houston beats Indy, we beat Houston, and Tenn beats both Houston and Indy.

 

The easiest way to think about this is to focus on the Houston-Indy game.  It is far and away more important than our game against Atlanta, which surprisingly doesnt change much whether we win or lose.  If Indy wins this weekend, they've all but clinched the division.  They would have to lose their remaining two games and either Houston or Jax would have to win their remaining games.  If Indy wins, we're basically done.  A loss to Atl would officially eliminate us while a win would keep our slim chance still alive.  But if Indy wins this weekend and gets a bunch of confidence, I dont see them losing out while seeing us win out.

 

If Houston wins though, our game against the Falcons doesnt mean as much surprisingly.  No matter what we would need Houston to lose to Tenn and then lose to us... that wouldnt change whether we win or lose against Atl.  However a win against Atlanta would mean all we'd need is an Indy loss to either Miami or Tenn.  Doesnt matter which one.  Just need one more loss.  But if we were to lose to Atl, Indy would have to lose to Tenn in week 17.  Their game against Miami would be irrelevant.  

The next tiebreaker is W-L-T percentage in common games.

 

The games Jacksonville, Indy and Houston have in common are:

 

Tennessee

Atlanta

New Orleans

Carolina

Tampa

New England

Buffalo

N.Y.Jets

Miami

 

Assuming a 3 way tie at 7-9, and assuming Tennessee beats both Houston and Indy, and Jacksonville beats Houston, and Houston beats Indy giving us all a 3-3 divisional record,the W-L-T records in common games would be as follows:

 

vs. Tennessee Jags (1-1), Houston (1-1), Indy (1-1)

vs. Atlanta       Jags (?), Hou (0-1), Indy (1-0)             

New Orleans    Jags (?), Hou (1-0), Indy (0-1)

Carolina           Jags (0-1), Hou (0-1), Indy (0-1)

Tampa              Jags (0-1), Hou (1-0), Indy (1-0)

New England    Jags (0-1), Hou (0-1), Indy (0-1)

Buffalo             Jags (1-0), Hou (0-1), Indy (0-1)

N.Y.Jets            Jags (0-1). Hou (1-0), Indy (0-1)

Miami               Jags (1-0), Hou (0-1), Indy (?)

 

Assuming the Jaguars split Atlanta and New Orleans, and Indy beats Miami...

 

Jacksonville would be 4-6

Houston would be 4-6

Indy would be 4-6

 

Ugh.  Onto the next tiebreaker...

my man is a straight scientist ^^^

Quote:The next tiebreaker is W-L-T percentage in common games.

 

The games Jacksonville, Indy and Houston have in common are:

 

Tennessee

Atlanta

New Orleans

Carolina

Tampa

New England

Buffalo

N.Y.Jets

Miami

 

Assuming a 3 way tie at 7-9, and assuming Tennessee beats both Houston and Indy, and Jacksonville beats Houston, and Houston beats Indy giving us all a 3-3 divisional record,the W-L-T records in common games would be as follows:

 

vs. Tennessee Jags (1-1), Houston (1-1), Indy (1-1)

vs. Atlanta       Jags (?), Hou (0-1), Indy (1-0)             

New Orleans    Jags (?), Hou (1-0), Indy (0-1)

Carolina           Jags (0-1), Hou (0-1), Indy (0-1)

Tampa              Jags (0-1), Hou (1-0), Indy (1-0)

New England    Jags (0-1), Hou (0-1), Indy (0-1)

Buffalo             Jags (1-0), Hou (0-1), Indy (0-1)

N.Y.Jets            Jags (0-1). Hou (1-0), Indy (0-1)

Miami               Jags (1-0), Hou (0-1), Indy (?)

 

Assuming the Jaguars split Atlanta and New Orleans, and Indy beats Miami...

 

Jacksonville would be 4-6

Houston would be 4-6

Indy would be 4-6

 

Ugh.  Onto the next tiebreaker...best W-L-T within the conference

 

Assuming all games unfold as above and all finish 7-9, Jacksonville wins on the basis of best W-L-T record within the conference.

 

Jacksonville would be 6-6 vs. the AFC

Houston and Indy would finish 5-7.

 

So in sum, if we want the Jaguars to make the playoffs, the two best scenarios are for us to finish 8-8 with a better record overall than Houston and Indy, or for all of us to finish 7-9, with Houston beating Indy.

Quote:If both Jax and Houston finish at 7-9 and Indy is at 6-10, we would win the tiebreaker.  Houston would have to beat Indy in that scenario and would have had to lose to both Tenn and us.  We could go 1-1 against Atl and NO and we'd win the division.

 

If all three of us (Jax, Houston, and Indy) finish at 7-9, we only win the tiebreaker if Houston beats Indy, we beat Houston, and Tenn beats both Houston and Indy.

 

The easiest way to think about this is to focus on the Houston-Indy game.  It is far and away more important than our game against Atlanta, which surprisingly doesnt change much whether we win or lose.  If Indy wins this weekend, they've all but clinched the division.  They would have to lose their remaining two games and either Houston or Jax would have to win their remaining games.  If Indy wins, we're basically done.  A loss to Atl would officially eliminate us while a win would keep our slim chance still alive.  But if Indy wins this weekend and gets a bunch of confidence, I dont see them losing out while seeing us win out.

 

If Houston wins though, our game against the Falcons doesnt mean as much surprisingly.  No matter what we would need Houston to lose to Tenn and then lose to us... that wouldnt change whether we win or lose against Atl.  However a win against Atlanta would mean all we'd need is an Indy loss to either Miami or Tenn.  Doesnt matter which one.  Just need one more loss.  But if we were to lose to Atl, Indy would have to lose to Tenn in week 17.  Their game against Miami would be irrelevant.  

This is correct.  Good job as usual, RFC.

Imagine if Jason Myers hits that game winning field goal back in week 4.

imagine if we beat the Titans the other week??

 

man.....

Quote:Imagine if Jason Myers hits that game winning field goal back in week 4.

I was just thinking that.

 

Our road would be a whole lot easier.

Quote:Imagine if Jason Myers hits that game winning field goal back in week 4.

And he had 2 chances at it.....

Quote:actually we could win a 3 way tiebreaker at 7-9 if the texans beat the colts, and the titans beat both of them.  the colts can beat the dolphins and it wouldnt matter.

 

if the Texans beat the Colts this weekend, us losing to the Falcons isnt a deal breaker.  the only thing that would be different is the Colts would have to lose to the Titans in week 17 whereas if we beat the Falcons we would need the Colts to lose to either the Dolphins or Titans, wouldnt matter which one.

Sounds good, I was wondering if we could still make it at 7-9

So def pulling for Houston 

 

But hope we win out, tho 7-9 might be the most realistic way for us to make it, winning 4 games in a row is asking an awful lot from this team at this point, and the Texans anad Colts going 1-2 down the stretch is very likely due to the state of those teams