You also have to consider that out of those 20 "draft-able" running backs -- how many will make an impact for their new team in year one or two?
Four? Five? Seven of them, maybe?
With that in mind and your team's running game in the gutter, you want to get one of those top guys. However - history shows that those 4-7 guys are NOT always the ones that go in the first or second round.
Quote:You also have to consider that out of those 20 "draft-able" running backs -- how many will make an impact for their new team in year one or two?
Four? Five? Seven of them, maybe?
With that in mind and your team's running game in the gutter, you want to get one of those top guys. However - history shows that those 4-7 guys are NOT always the ones that go in the first or second round.
Right.
It's a crapshoot but you increase your odds by doing your research and taking the best guy at the best position where you can maximize value.
Quote:You also have to consider that out of those 20 "draft-able" running backs -- how many will make an impact for their new team in year one or two?
Four? Five? Seven of them, maybe?
With that in mind and your team's running game in the gutter, you want to get one of those top guys. However - history shows that those 4-7 guys are NOT always the ones that go in the first or second round.
This. We have crap at rb right now. Yeldon is bust material and ivory is 1 year older. We need a young back who can chew up clock/be a 3 down back.
Quote:I think its more so talking about the value of running backs as a whole.
You can say RB's don't have as much value as other positions, but how different might our offense have looked if we had a competent RB and Blake wouldn't have had to pass so much? Maybe, his interceptions would have been cut drastically and we might've won more close games. For our team at least, RB should be a very high value.
Quote:You can say RB's don't have as much value as other positions, but how different might our offense have looked if we had a competent RB and Blake wouldn't have had to pass so much?
I don't think it would have looked
that much different since the run-game struggles were much more the fault of the O-Line than the RBs. Not that it wouldn't help, just that fixing the line will help more.
Happy birthday, BTW.
Quote:You can say RB's don't have as much value as other positions, but how different might our offense have looked if we had a competent RB and Blake wouldn't have had to pass so much? Maybe, his interceptions would have been cut drastically and we might've won more close games. For our team at least, RB should be a very high value.
Imagine how different our offense would have looked with a good run blocking line and good run play calls for the whole year?
The draft is all about about value. Picking a running back at #4 is not getting the same value as other spots. Although I totally get the allure of a guy like Fournette at 4 and would love to see him play here.
As I said a quick look around the league tells you everything you need to know about the value of running backs when it comes to the draft.
Quote:I don't think it would have looked that much different since the run-game struggles were much more the fault of the O-Line than the RBs. Not that it wouldn't help, just that fixing the line will help more.
Happy birthday, BTW.
I'm definitely not saying the O-Line doesn't need fixing. I've been telling anyone that would listen that we need major changes on the O-Line, but imagine if we would've taken David Johnson in the 2015 draft. Don't you think our running game would be a lot better than it is now, even with the same O-Line?
Quote:I'm definitely not saying the O-Line doesn't need fixing. I've been telling anyone that would listen that we need major changes on the O-Line, but imagine if we would've taken David Johnson in the 2015 draft. Don't you think our running game would be a lot better than it is now, even with the same O-Line?
I'd say it would have been "marginally better." Probably not "a lot better."
Quote:Imagine how different our offense would have looked with a good run blocking line and good run play calls for the whole year?
The draft is all about about value. Picking a running back at #4 is not getting the same value as other spots. Although I totally get the allure of a guy like Fournette at 4 and would love to see him play here.
As I said a quick look around the league tells you everything you need to know about the value of running backs when it comes to the draft.
I don't think it would've been that different, even with a much better O-Line. We have a couple of one-dimensional RB's. At his best, Ivory is a power back who lacks burst and speed. He's very, very rarely gonna break a long run. He just lacks the speed and he's gonna get run down from behind. That's just who he is. Yeldon just sucks all around. He lacks instincts and goes down with the brush of a hand. Any way you look at it, we need a RB who runs with power and breakaway speed. RB's with those attributes are rarer than you think. Until we get this, our running game will be mediocre at best.
Quote:I don't think it would have looked that much different since the run-game struggles were much more the fault of the O-Line than the RBs. Not that it wouldn't help, just that fixing the line will help more.
Happy birthday, BTW.
This is where we are at an impasse then. I disagree. I believe we would have been significantly better. Not where we need to be by a long shot, but better enough that it would've changed the outcome of more than one game. I still don't believe we would've made the playoffs or anything like that, but our season would've held a lot more promise. Any way you look at it though, both RB and O-Line NEED to be addressed.
Quote:This is where we are at an impasse then. I disagree. I believe we would have been significantly better. Not where we need to be by a long shot, but better enough that it would've changed the outcome of more than one game. I still don't believe we would've made the playoffs or anything like that, but our season would've held a lot more promise. Any way you look at it though, both RB and O-Line NEED to be addressed.
Yeah. I'd like to upgrade both. We aren't terribly far off in opinion here. Just a question of priority.
Always depends....
in this particular draft it would take a fringe 1st round talent at the top of 2 for me to be OK with a round two or better pick used on RB.
Typically I think 3rd or later, with a good O-line will do ya fine.
Many teams make stars out of late round and udfa...
Build the O-line... you'll find a RB.
And maybe you happen into a situation like the Boys who had the luxury of using a first rounder on the position,.
Quote:I don't think it would've been that different, even with a much better O-Line. We have a couple of one-dimensional RB's. At his best, Ivory is a power back who lacks burst and speed. He's very, very rarely gonna break a long run. He just lacks the speed and he's gonna get run down from behind. That's just who he is. Yeldon just sucks all around. He lacks instincts and goes down with the brush of a hand. Any way you look at it, we need a RB who runs with power and breakaway speed. RB's with those attributes are rarer than you think. Until we get this, our running game will be mediocre at best.
Of course our running game would have been much better with a much better Oline. I agree Ivory+Yeldon ain't anything special and can be fairly easily upgraded, my issue is simply that a running back in the 2nd/3rd/4th is far better value than any at pick #4. When you add in how deep this class is it makes it a no brainer. Lets take a look at the top 20 rushers in the league and where they were taken in the draft
Running backs taken after round 1 Running backs taken in the first round
Leveon Bell - Round 2 Zeke Elliot - Pick 4
Lesean McCoy- Round 2 Mark Ingram- Pick 28
Jordan Howard- Round 5 Todd Gurley- Pick 10
Jay Ajayi - Round 5 Melvin Gordon- Pick 15
Demarco Murray - Round 3 Johnathen Stewart- Pick 13
David Johnson - Round 3
Lamar Miller - Round 4
Devonta Freeman - Round 4
Legarette Blount - Undrafted
Frank Gore - Round 3
Carlos Hyde- Round 2
Spencer Ware- Round 6
Isiah Crowell - Undrafted
Jeremy Hill- Round 2
Latavious Murray- Round 6
Matt Forte- Round 2
Fred Taylor turned out OK
Quote:Of course our running game would have been much better with a much better Oline. I agree Ivory+Yeldon ain't anything special and can be fairly easily upgraded, my issue is simply that a running back in the 2nd/3rd/4th is far better value than any at pick #4. When you add in how deep this class is it makes it a no brainer. Lets take a look at the top 20 rushers in the league and where they were taken in the draft
Running backs taken after round 1 Running backs taken in the first round
Leveon Bell - Round 2 Zeke Elliot - Pick 4
Lesean McCoy- Round 2 Mark Ingram- Pick 28
Jordan Howard- Round 5 Todd Gurley- Pick 10
Jay Ajayi - Round 5 Melvin Gordon- Pick 15
Demarco Murray - Round 3 Johnathen Stewart- Pick 13
David Johnson - Round 3
Lamar Miller - Round 4
Devonta Freeman - Round 4
Legarette Blount - Undrafted
Frank Gore - Round 3
Carlos Hyde- Round 2
Spencer Ware- Round 6
Isiah Crowell - Undrafted
Jeremy Hill- Round 2
Latavious Murray- Round 6
Matt Forte- Round 2
A good amount of those guys on the left aren't game changers or have only had one good season. I'd argue that there hasn't been top-end talent at the RB position like this for a while. Most would say that aside from Zeke (who may be around the same tier), Fournette and Cook are better college prospects than all those guys.
Quote:A good amount of those guys on the left aren't game changers or have only had one good season. I'd argue that there hasn't been top-end talent at the RB position like this for a while. Most would say that aside from Zeke (who may be around the same tier), Fournette and Cook are better college prospects than all those guys.
There is no doubt Fournette and Cook are better college prospects than a lot of those guys, the point is value.
Its far easier to find an above average running back later in the draft than it is a pass rusher. So if you come to pick #4 and you have a choice between a top pass rushing talent and a top running back talent, it would make more sense to take the pass rusher and then take a running back later, especially in a deep running back class. At least that makes more sense to me anyway.
That's a good point too. Really depends how they grade these guys compared to the rest of the field. If Fournette is head and shoulders above Thomas in their grades, then even with the relative value at the RB position, I think you can argue that taking Fournette there would work out pretty well. If Thomas or Allen have the same grade, and you can just take Mixon in the 2nd, then that may be the better play.
Quote:A good amount of those guys on the left aren't game changers or have only had one good season. I'd argue that there hasn't been top-end talent at the RB position like this for a while. Most would say that aside from Zeke (who may be around the same tier), Fournette and Cook are better college prospects than all those guys.
neither of them are better than Gurley as prospects.
Quote:neither of them are better than Gurley as prospects.
I disagree. Assuming Cook and Fournette both are cleared medically (which sounds like they were), I think both offer more than Gurley does.
Quote:I disagree. Assuming Cook and Fournette both are cleared medically (which sounds like they were), I think both offer more than Gurley does.
Fournette is stronger and slightly faster but thats pretty much where it ends. Gurley is better than him at pretty much everything else and hes not far off in speed, hes fast as hell.
Cook is more versatile but doesnt run better than Gurley did. And Gurley showed this season he can be a receiver too, not that hes on cooks level but he doesnt have to be with how good his running is.