Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Exactly. 

Quote:Compare Winston to Luck this year... then tell me Luck is still better than Blake.


He is, but this numbers game doesn't tell the whole story. The "rookie to a second year QB" argument is dumb.

 

:ermm:   What does this even mean?

Quote:He was 14 of 18 on the first half at Indy. So the accuracy is there, just seems to fall off when the offense stalls. Correlation?

 

 

Now that's more like it. 78 percent rivals the best in the league, and actually I recall them showing a graphic where at one point he had nine straight completions.


 

I thought I'd double check this in the gamebook, and indeed he did. He started out 5 of 7...then nailed 9 straight...then finished off the half with two incompletions. He then started out the second half with 5 straight completions at this point having completed 19 of 23 for an 82.6 completion ratio in the game
(about 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter)
before things turned sour. After that point Bortles went 9 of 27 completing only one-third of his passes.


 

This almost makes me wonder if Bortles' arm is wearing out again. How do you start out nailing 82.6 percent of your passes, and then finish up hitting only 33.3 percent? 

Quote:Agreed here. If there one area that's strikingly lacking with Bortles it's his completion percentage. While drops factor in here, this just won't cut it. Gabbert often had a completion percentage below 50 percent. In an effort to see where he should be at I looked at starters around the league and concluded that the absolute minimum to be an effective starter is 59 percent. 54 percent isn't quite cutting it, and I realize it's not all him and that drops are part of it.


 

Looking around the league so far this year, the top guys in this category like Roethlisberger and Romo are around 75 percent. Half of the starters in the league are at 65 percent or more. Another dozen starters taper down from there between a 60 to 64 percent completion percentage. Then it gets ugly with a few just below 58 percent, namely Clausen, Tannehill and surprisingly Luck. Below them is a group of guys right around 55 percent with Newton, Winston, Hoyer and Bortles. The only qbs with a worse completion percentage than Bortles are Manziel and Mallet.


 

If Bortles can get his percentage from out among the bottom of the barrel to say an average-looking 61 percent, this offense would look so much better.

 

Quote:The drops are not really any different than last year. The difference is the level of difficulty on his throws. Most of the second half of last year he never passed more than like 5 yards from the LOS. This year he is taking a ton more shots downfield and just tougher throws in general. So it's not like he has regressed in accuracy since last year. He does need to get the percentage up to the 60 mark however.

 

Agreed with Pujo. IMO Comparing Gabbert and Bortles' completion percentage isn't fair. The "Gabbert Zone" was created because Gabbert never through the ball more than five yards down the field. Bortles is hurt not only by drops but by the fact that he throws the ball down the field much more than Gabbert ever did. Even if Bortles was much more accurate than he has been, throwing down the field is more likely to amount to incompletions. 

 

Bortles definitely has to raise his completion percentage but if this is the type of offense he is going to be in during his career  I don't ever see him being a super high completion percentage type QB. Hovering around 60-65 might be the right spot for an offense that pushes the ball down the field plenty of time. 

Quote:I've seen/heard a lot about Winston not being very good and that should help the Jags win this weekend.  However, the stats are very similar for both players.  I don't think either team has a real advantage over the other.

 

                                  BB                Winston

Passing Yards           996                  965

Attempts                   156                   133

Completions              85                    73

Compl %                   54.5                  54.9

Average                   6.4                    7.3

Yards/Game             249                  241.2

TDs                           6                        6

INTs                           3                        7

Sacks                        8                        9

Rating                      78.9                   71.2

 

 

It is a team sport, but the media always tries to make it QB vs QB even though they play against the Defense and not each other.

 

When you compare each team they are close except the Jaguars have allowed way more passing yards (against them - Defense) than the Bucs, and the Jaguars have failed to first on 3rd downs as their opponets have been able to.

 

the Jaguars always defeat the Bucs in the last few matchups, so they should be the expected winners of this game.

 

The keys to victory for the Jaguars;

 

1. Win the turnover ratio, Bucs gave up 5 against the Panthers & capitalize on them.   The Jaguars Defense must get INTs (they have been the leagues worst for several years in gaining INTs against opponets - MILB Poz has the only one this year I think), but forcing fumbles will work too.
   
2. Out coach a weak HC Lovie Smith, Gus has been outcoached in most of his matchups over several years as HC this is a game where he should be able to outcoach the other team.
   
3. Stop the run on Defense, and run often on Offense - own the game clock.  Bucs good at running but Jags D good at stopping the run nice matchup in that aspect.
   
4. Good test for the Rookie Cann fighting off DT McCoy, but a better test for McCray on WR Mike Evans.
   
5. Stay healthy, the Jaguars cant afford any more serious injuries to key players.
   

winston will look like a super star this week, every qb does vs the jags it doesn't matter if it's 3rd string.. practice squad.. doesn't matter

Bortles is a winner... at least he was at UCF. I like the kid. He's not a quitter.

Jury is still out on Winston.

Quote:Now that's more like it. 78 percent rivals the best in the league, and actually I recall them showing a graphic where at one point he had nine straight completions.


 

I thought I'd double check this in the gamebook, and indeed he did. He started out 5 of 7...then nailed 9 straight...then finished off the half with two incompletions. He then started out the second half with 5 straight completions at this point having completed 19 of 23 for an 82.6 completion ratio in the game
(about 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter)
before things turned sour. After that point Bortles went 9 of 27 completing only one-third of his passes.


 

This almost makes me wonder if Bortles' arm is wearing out again. How do you start out nailing 82.6 percent of your passes, and then finish up hitting only 33.3 percent? 

If you go back and watch the game most of his incompletions came from the fact they were trying to force throws in 3rd and long situations, Marcedes dropped several balls, Robinson missing that long bomb, and a few being just outside the receiver's range. Bortles' accuracy is inconsistent but it's there and if not for all the drops (11) he would be at a 62% completion rate, right where you would want him to be in his second year in a downfield offense.

Quote:It is a team sport, but the media always tries to make it QB vs QB even though they play against the Defense and not each other.


When you compare each team they are close except the Jaguars have allowed way more passing yards (against them - Defense) than the Bucs, and the Jaguars have failed to first on 3rd downs as their opponets have been able to.


the Jaguars always defeat the Bucs in the last few matchups, so they should be the expected winners of this game.


The keys to victory for the Jaguars;

<ul class="bbcol decimal">[*]Win the turnover ratio, Bucs gave up 5 against the Panthers & capitalize on them. The Jaguars Defense must get INTs (they have been the leagues worst for several years in gaining INTs against opponets - MILB Poz has the only one this year I think), but forcing fumbles will work too.[*]Out coach a weak HC Lovie Smith, Gus has been outcoached in most of his matchups over several years as HC this is a game where he should be able to outcoach the other team.[*]Stop the run on Defense, and run often on Offense - own the game clock. Bucs good at running but Jags D good at stopping the run nice matchup in that aspect.[*]Good test for the Rookie Cann fighting off DT McCoy, but a better test for McCray on WR Mike Evans.[*]Stay healthy, the Jaguars cant afford any more serious injuries to key players.</ul>

The Bucs aren't good at running. The defenses are playing prevent bc they're down by so much allowing Martin to get yards. Their OL makes less holes for Martin than we do for Yeldon.


McCray can handle Evans, though I don't think he'll be on him. House and Colvin both look to be healthy and start, I'd put House on VJax just since he's the vet and put Colvin on Evans with some safety help.

Quote::ermm: What does this even mean?

They're using this year's stats to say Blake = Winston. So I said by that logic let's look at Luck's stats from this year, he's worse than all three. So, Blake > Luck. Obviously this isn't the case, at least not yet, but the point was, saying Blake sucks bc his stats are similar to a rookie is silly since raw stats like that don't tell the whole story.


Besides the fact that Blake's stats are actually pretty darn good.

Quote:It honestly opened my eyes too.  I'm not saying BB won't be good (of course I hope he is) but to see that Winston is basically his twin statistically puts it into perspective.

 

Exactly.

Quote:Now that's more like it. 78 percent rivals the best in the league, and actually I recall them showing a graphic where at one point he had nine straight completions.


 

I thought I'd double check this in the gamebook, and indeed he did. He started out 5 of 7...then nailed 9 straight...then finished off the half with two incompletions. He then started out the second half with 5 straight completions at this point having completed 19 of 23 for an 82.6 completion ratio in the game
(about 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter)
before things turned sour. After that point Bortles went 9 of 27 completing only one-third of his passes.


 

This almost makes me wonder if Bortles' arm is wearing out again. How do you start out nailing 82.6 percent of your passes, and then finish up hitting only 33.3 percent? 

 

Good question Jags02. I saw somewhere that his completion percentage went up at the tail end of the game, though that may be a result of defenses playing bend-not-break and allowing easier completions.

Quote:They're using this year's stats to say Blake = Winston. So I said by that logic let's look at Luck's stats from this year, he's worse than all three. So, Blake > Luck. Obviously this isn't the case, at least not yet, but the point was, saying Blake sucks bc his stats are similar to a rookie is silly since raw stats like that don't tell the whole story.


Besides the fact that Blake's stats are actually pretty darn good.

 

Got it !!!   Thanks for the clarification :thanks:

 

Quite interesting ..... so by statistical logic that they were using  ..... if Blake > Luck and Blake = Winston, then Winston > Luck too.  

 

GOT IT !!!  :thumbsup:

I love people with the "stats don't tell the story line" Ok when Peyton Manning threw for 55 TD did the stats lie then? Or when Brady carved up the Jags in 2004-2005 for like 25-28 did the stats not tell the story then? More excuses for a QB that's not much better than Gabbert. 

Quote:I love people with the "stats don't tell the story line" Ok when Peyton Manning threw for 55 TD did the stats lie then? Or when Brady carved up the Jags in 2004-2005 for like 25-28 did the stats not tell the story then? More excuses for a QB that's not much better than Gabbert. 

 

Cool

Quote:I love people with the "stats don't tell the story line" Ok when Peyton Manning threw for 55 TD did the stats lie then? Or when Brady carved up the Jags in 2004-2005 for like 25-28 did the stats not tell the story then? More excuses for a QB that's not much better than Gabbert. 

The correct answer is "sometimes" stats lie.

 

Guy throws an interception but it hits the belly of the WR and bounces in the air for a pick..... technically thats an interception but the QB can't help that.

Quote:Got it !!! Thanks for the clarification :thanks:


Quite interesting ..... so by statistical logic that they were using ..... if Blake > Luck and Blake = Winston, then Winston > Luck too.


GOT IT !!! :thumbsup:

Exactly!

Quote:I love people with the "stats don't tell the story line" Ok when Peyton Manning threw for 55 TD did the stats lie then? Or when Brady carved up the Jags in 2004-2005 for like 25-28 did the stats not tell the story then? More excuses for a QB that's not much better than Gabbert. 

 

What would you know about using stats to fit an agenda? Oh...wait.

Quote:I love people with the "stats don't tell the story line" Ok when Peyton Manning threw for 55 TD did the stats lie then? Or when Brady carved up the Jags in 2004-2005 for like 25-28 did the stats not tell the story then? More excuses for a QB that's not much better than Gabbert.

Yeah, you tell 'em. It's not like those are extreme examples or anything.

Quote:Yeah, you tell 'em. It's not like those are extreme examples or anything.

 

If stats are meaningless I guess that means Wilt Chamberlain's 100 point game was meaningless. Herp derp Gabbert.