09-06-2015, 08:17 AM
The 53 man roster, as of 4pm yesterday, is officially set. While there may be some minor tinkering at the bottom frays of the roster, the team is what it is.
But what is this team? Is it better than it was at this point last year? The general sense coming out of this preseason is yes. But what are the basis for this feeling of improvement?
The first is the infusion of talent. Assuming the current ideas of the starting lineup hold true, by my count we will have at least ten (10) new starters from at this point last year.
position----------2014 starter---------2015 starter----------Upgrade y/n?
QB Henne Bortles Y
RB Gerhart Yeldon ?
RT Bradfield Parnell Y
C McClendon Wisniewski Y
LDE Bryant Odrick ?
OTTO Hayes Skuta ?
Will Reynolds Smith Y
LCB Gratz House ?
RCB Ball Colvin Y
FS Guy Brown Y
This does not factor in differences due to injury, so TE Julius Thomas isn't listed as a "New starter" because he won't play in the opener this year, even though he is, and Alualu appears to get the start at DT, he is not listed because he would not be the normal starter if Marks were healthy. Did not mention LEO because I am uncertain if Smith, Davis or Clemons gets the start.
Having dispensed with that caveat, analysis of these position changes shows a likely upgrade in at least six of the ten positions listed above. Bortles is considered head and shoulders above Henne at QB. He is bigger, faster, has a better arm, has improved mechanics, and now has a season's worth of experience under his belt. He has seen fronts, blitzes and coverages he had not seen at this point last year. Several players, including former Jaguar WR Cecil Shorts, have predicted superstardom for the third overall pick in the 2014 draft. He is at least trending in that direction now. Although Henne played well in the first game last year, Henne last year appears to be no match for Bortles this year. There is similarly no comparison at C and RT. McClendon was a former 4th round pick of the Colts who was on his 4th team by the time he reached Jacksonville. He had only played in 6 games total as of week one last year, only starting two. He only started the opener at C last year because Bowanko, a lowly rated rookie, was injured. This year, Wisniewski, a second round choice and 4 year starter in the current offensive scheme, mans the C position. Parnell, a former basketball player and part time starter at RT for an outstanding Dallas OL last year, is an upgrade over Cam Bradfield, who gave up some 4 sacks by himself of week 2 last year. He was cut after that game. While he made some mistakes in special teams, Telvin Smith, who made AFC Defensive player of the week against Cleveland, is a clear upgrade over LaRoy Reynolds. Ball, a career journeyman, has been upgraded by Colvin, and Guy, who was cut after a disastrous outing against San Diego, has been upgraded at FS by a faster and rangier Sergio Brown (who may eventually be replaced once Sample gets up to speed). The other positions in this list may eventually prove to be upgrades, but are inconclusive at this point. Yeldon only has 8 preseason carries at this point and didn't get much yardage. He appears to be a better lateral runner than Gerhart, but there is too little information at this point. Odrick is younger than Bryant was, so he may have more in the tank than Bryant had last year, but he plays a position where he isn't going to put up many numbers. Skuta may have more pass rushing ability and is more stout at the point of attack than Hayes, but we will have to see with him. Davon House appears faster than Gratz, but Gratz had decent moments in his career, and House has not been able to stay healthy. I think it is safe to say from a pure talent standpoint, this is a better team.
The second basis is one I touched on in the analysis above. This is a more experienced team in key areas than the one that went to Philadelphia. Last year, the top three receivers were all rookies. This year, Robinson, Hurns, and Lee have all been through training camps and have had a season's worth of experience going up against NFL corners and safeties and reading coverages. The QBs on this roster now know what those guys' strengths and weaknesses are and have a better idea what they are thinking when they run routes and are presented with certain coverages. At best. McClendon had two starts at C going into Philly. If you plugged in Bowanko or Linder instead, they had zero starts. This year, Wiz has 4 seasons worth of starting at C in this offense. He knows the protections and the schemes. Because of this experience, he can better identify fronts and the different challenges each front provides and make the appropriate adjustments than any of those guys before. Linder now has double digit starts under his belt. While Henne last year was a more experienced starter than Bortles this year, Bortles NOW has a year's experience under his belt, and added to his superior physical skills and attributes more than compensates for Henne's experiential advantage. Joeckel now has a season's worth of experience at LT to help him. There is a similar analysis on the defensive side, where C. Smith, Telvin Smith, now have a year under their belts. Other guys like Cyprien and Gratz are now in the 3rd year in the scheme. The kinds of mistakes that happened because of scheme uncertainty that we saw early in the season last year should not be made this year.
Furthermore, this is a demonstrably deeper team than last year. Last year, our RBs were Gerhart, Robinson (who was still learning the position), and Todman (pedestrian at best and now out of football). This year we are five deep at the position. Last year, a guy like Lee or Greene would have started the season. This year, they are the 3rd and 4th WRs. Bowanko, an inexperienced starter last year, is experienced depth this year. We now have a guy like Cann coming off the bench. Last year, either he would have started as a rookie, and a guy like Pasztor might have been the depth. Our depth chart in the secondary featured guys like Chris Prosinski, WInston Guy, and Will Blackmon. If our starting CBs got hurt last year, neither of the backups could be counted on to play competent CB. Now, we are four deep at CB. A developmental guy like Marshall, who would have maybe been the 3rd or 4th CB last year (see McCray), is now the 5th guy. BTW, Marshall has more athletic ability-albeit unrefined-than McCray. There are other positions not discussed here where we have better quality depth than we have had on the team in quite some time.
Finally, this is a better coached team offensively than at this point last year. Opening week, Jed Fisch, whom many felt was overmatched as a coordinator, called our plays, and gave us Gerhart on toss sweeps and stretch plays and an ever increasing reluctance to throw downfield (though a lot of that was due to poor talent). He had never been an NFL level coordinator prior to coming to the Jaguars. Now we have an experienced Coordinator in Olson who has proven to have successful offenses in the NFL. Last year, our OL coach was battling cancer, and he could not devote his time to coaching the OL. Those duties fell to inexperienced Luke Butkus. This year, Doug Marrone, who was OL coach for the Saints during their ascent to Super Bowl champs, is now our OL coach. Gone is the emphasis on smaller, quicker OL, and there is more of a power based approach.
Ultimately, this team will have to demonstrate this progress in the regular season W-L record. But there are legitimate, tangible and intangible reasons for Jaguars fans to view this team as improved compared to this point last year.
But what is this team? Is it better than it was at this point last year? The general sense coming out of this preseason is yes. But what are the basis for this feeling of improvement?
The first is the infusion of talent. Assuming the current ideas of the starting lineup hold true, by my count we will have at least ten (10) new starters from at this point last year.
position----------2014 starter---------2015 starter----------Upgrade y/n?
QB Henne Bortles Y
RB Gerhart Yeldon ?
RT Bradfield Parnell Y
C McClendon Wisniewski Y
LDE Bryant Odrick ?
OTTO Hayes Skuta ?
Will Reynolds Smith Y
LCB Gratz House ?
RCB Ball Colvin Y
FS Guy Brown Y
This does not factor in differences due to injury, so TE Julius Thomas isn't listed as a "New starter" because he won't play in the opener this year, even though he is, and Alualu appears to get the start at DT, he is not listed because he would not be the normal starter if Marks were healthy. Did not mention LEO because I am uncertain if Smith, Davis or Clemons gets the start.
Having dispensed with that caveat, analysis of these position changes shows a likely upgrade in at least six of the ten positions listed above. Bortles is considered head and shoulders above Henne at QB. He is bigger, faster, has a better arm, has improved mechanics, and now has a season's worth of experience under his belt. He has seen fronts, blitzes and coverages he had not seen at this point last year. Several players, including former Jaguar WR Cecil Shorts, have predicted superstardom for the third overall pick in the 2014 draft. He is at least trending in that direction now. Although Henne played well in the first game last year, Henne last year appears to be no match for Bortles this year. There is similarly no comparison at C and RT. McClendon was a former 4th round pick of the Colts who was on his 4th team by the time he reached Jacksonville. He had only played in 6 games total as of week one last year, only starting two. He only started the opener at C last year because Bowanko, a lowly rated rookie, was injured. This year, Wisniewski, a second round choice and 4 year starter in the current offensive scheme, mans the C position. Parnell, a former basketball player and part time starter at RT for an outstanding Dallas OL last year, is an upgrade over Cam Bradfield, who gave up some 4 sacks by himself of week 2 last year. He was cut after that game. While he made some mistakes in special teams, Telvin Smith, who made AFC Defensive player of the week against Cleveland, is a clear upgrade over LaRoy Reynolds. Ball, a career journeyman, has been upgraded by Colvin, and Guy, who was cut after a disastrous outing against San Diego, has been upgraded at FS by a faster and rangier Sergio Brown (who may eventually be replaced once Sample gets up to speed). The other positions in this list may eventually prove to be upgrades, but are inconclusive at this point. Yeldon only has 8 preseason carries at this point and didn't get much yardage. He appears to be a better lateral runner than Gerhart, but there is too little information at this point. Odrick is younger than Bryant was, so he may have more in the tank than Bryant had last year, but he plays a position where he isn't going to put up many numbers. Skuta may have more pass rushing ability and is more stout at the point of attack than Hayes, but we will have to see with him. Davon House appears faster than Gratz, but Gratz had decent moments in his career, and House has not been able to stay healthy. I think it is safe to say from a pure talent standpoint, this is a better team.
The second basis is one I touched on in the analysis above. This is a more experienced team in key areas than the one that went to Philadelphia. Last year, the top three receivers were all rookies. This year, Robinson, Hurns, and Lee have all been through training camps and have had a season's worth of experience going up against NFL corners and safeties and reading coverages. The QBs on this roster now know what those guys' strengths and weaknesses are and have a better idea what they are thinking when they run routes and are presented with certain coverages. At best. McClendon had two starts at C going into Philly. If you plugged in Bowanko or Linder instead, they had zero starts. This year, Wiz has 4 seasons worth of starting at C in this offense. He knows the protections and the schemes. Because of this experience, he can better identify fronts and the different challenges each front provides and make the appropriate adjustments than any of those guys before. Linder now has double digit starts under his belt. While Henne last year was a more experienced starter than Bortles this year, Bortles NOW has a year's experience under his belt, and added to his superior physical skills and attributes more than compensates for Henne's experiential advantage. Joeckel now has a season's worth of experience at LT to help him. There is a similar analysis on the defensive side, where C. Smith, Telvin Smith, now have a year under their belts. Other guys like Cyprien and Gratz are now in the 3rd year in the scheme. The kinds of mistakes that happened because of scheme uncertainty that we saw early in the season last year should not be made this year.
Furthermore, this is a demonstrably deeper team than last year. Last year, our RBs were Gerhart, Robinson (who was still learning the position), and Todman (pedestrian at best and now out of football). This year we are five deep at the position. Last year, a guy like Lee or Greene would have started the season. This year, they are the 3rd and 4th WRs. Bowanko, an inexperienced starter last year, is experienced depth this year. We now have a guy like Cann coming off the bench. Last year, either he would have started as a rookie, and a guy like Pasztor might have been the depth. Our depth chart in the secondary featured guys like Chris Prosinski, WInston Guy, and Will Blackmon. If our starting CBs got hurt last year, neither of the backups could be counted on to play competent CB. Now, we are four deep at CB. A developmental guy like Marshall, who would have maybe been the 3rd or 4th CB last year (see McCray), is now the 5th guy. BTW, Marshall has more athletic ability-albeit unrefined-than McCray. There are other positions not discussed here where we have better quality depth than we have had on the team in quite some time.
Finally, this is a better coached team offensively than at this point last year. Opening week, Jed Fisch, whom many felt was overmatched as a coordinator, called our plays, and gave us Gerhart on toss sweeps and stretch plays and an ever increasing reluctance to throw downfield (though a lot of that was due to poor talent). He had never been an NFL level coordinator prior to coming to the Jaguars. Now we have an experienced Coordinator in Olson who has proven to have successful offenses in the NFL. Last year, our OL coach was battling cancer, and he could not devote his time to coaching the OL. Those duties fell to inexperienced Luke Butkus. This year, Doug Marrone, who was OL coach for the Saints during their ascent to Super Bowl champs, is now our OL coach. Gone is the emphasis on smaller, quicker OL, and there is more of a power based approach.
Ultimately, this team will have to demonstrate this progress in the regular season W-L record. But there are legitimate, tangible and intangible reasons for Jaguars fans to view this team as improved compared to this point last year.