I just saw the ESPN article where, once again, Vegas have selected the Jaguars to finish dead last. Given our history, I can see why someone who hasn’t done too much research on the team’s recent veteran FA and draft acquisitions could think that. However, the odd’s makers in Vegas are professionals and, unlike the vast majority of the teams fan base, probably far more objective in their assessment.


Still, I find it hard to understand that given the quality of the coaching and the overall upgrades in talent that the Jag’s should be so looked down upon; especially by people whose livelihood depends on making accurate projections.


While it is true that most, if not all, the teams have acquired new talent via veteran FA and the draft, not all teams have done so equally well. The Jaguars draft was rated an ‘A’ by ESPN, while the Colts received only a ‘C’. Our FA acquisition has earned us the nickname of the ‘Southern Seahawks’ due to our head coach and a number of former Seahawk players now being here. How could we not be dramatically improved?


Here’s how:


Remember that while many of our veteran FA’s came from the Seahawks, some of them are getting a little ‘long in the tooth’. While it’s true that we’ve had two seasons now of excellent drafting (thanks to our new GM) our newest rookies are totally untested in the NFL. The college game and the NFL are two different worlds. We don’t know if Blake Bortles will work out to be a successful franchise quarterback for us. We hope so; he has a lot of positives going for him, but he is still untested. Eventually, we’ll see…


The same story goes for all our other new rookies too. They seem to have demonstrated the ‘right stuff’ in college ball, enough so to impress our GM and head coach. But the bottom line remains the bottom line. We’ll have to wait and see how they do.


In the meantime, the best we can hope for is that the Jag’s will, in the words of the coach of the Cleveland Indians from the movie ‘Major League’, try their best to serve the odd’s makers a @#$% burger and make them all take a bite!

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I y'ams who I y'ams and thats all I y'ams...

Chad is still our starter at QB. Until that changes and Blake shows that he's capable of becoming a franchise QB the odds won't be in our favor.

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"Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry, he's a mile away and barefoot."

Jax is a total wildcard right now - no one knows what we are going to bring to the table.

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Chad is still our starter at QB. Until that changes and Blake shows that he's capable of becoming a franchise QB the odds won't be in our favor.

 

Quite right. If Bortles were considered a guy ready to go from day one like Luck or RG3 we'd already be considered improved, but with Henne currently considered the starter the perception is correct, you can't win games against even decent teams with a guy like that under center.

 

I'm hoping Bortles learns quick.

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Quite right. If Bortles were considered a guy ready to go from day one like Luck or RG3 we'd already be considered improved, but with Henne currently considered the starter the perception is correct, you can't win games against even decent teams with a guy like that under center.

 

I'm hoping Bortles learns quick.

You may be quite right.... but I sure hope you're not.

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I y'ams who I y'ams and thats all I y'ams...

Look at the bright side. They can't downgrade us!

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What lies behind us, and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.







 

Keep in mind, the odds aren't based on what the Vegas oddsmakers think will happen, they're based on how they think betting will go. They are trying to make money afterall.

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I'm condescending. That means I talk down to you.

The wildcard is Gus.  This whole coaching staff seems to relate to players in a unique way.  Right now, there's not a lot of pressure on the team in terms of wins and losses.  But it's possible the team could start racking up wins due to Gus's positive environment and the natural addition of talent and experience.  The difference in many games comes down to a few plays.  This thing could explode at any time, and that's part of the fun of watching this full rebuild. 

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Anyone know a legit website we can make bets on the over under win totals for next year?

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Chad is still our starter at QB. Until that changes and Blake shows that he's capable of becoming a franchise QB the odds won't be in our favor.

but but but, may the odds be ever in our favour!

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Anyone know a legit website we can make bets on the over under win totals for next year?

www.headsIwinTailsYoulose.com.

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What lies behind us, and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.







 

Keep in mind, the odds aren't based on what the Vegas oddsmakers think will happen, they're based on how they think betting will go. They are trying to make money afterall.

Well there you go,see? That shows me how little I know about this stuff. It makes sense that the odd's makers would concern themselves not with what they think will really happen so much as how they think the betting will go. So, I guess what this means is that the Vegas odd's makers still think that the majority of betting will not favor the Jag's. That still doesn't sound too good....

 

I understand that we don't have an elite quarterback in Henne and that consequently will have a relative negative impact on the season. However, we did win four games last year, even as hamstrung as we were. With the up grades that have been acquired since then (and I'm talking primarily about the veteran FA's now) it seems we should at least finish one game better; 5-11 or 6-10 maybe. That's nothing to brag to mom about but it's not last place either. Just say'in....

 

In fact, even if we end the season with nothing better than a 5-11 record, that is an improvement; and the probability is that at the very least, we shouldn't be getting blown out like what happened last season.

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I y'ams who I y'ams and thats all I y'ams...

Well there you go,see? That shows me how little I know about this stuff. It makes sense that the odd's makers would concern themselves not with what they think will really happen so much as how they think the betting will go. So, I guess what this means is that the Vegas odd's makers still think that the majority of betting will not favor the Jag's. That still doesn't sound too good....

 

I understand that we don't have an elite quarterback in Henne and that consequently will have a relative negative impact on the season. However, we did win four games last year, even as hamstrung as we were. With the up grades that have been acquired since then (and I'm talking primarily about the veteran FA's now) it seems we should at least finish one game better; 5-11 or 6-10 maybe. That's nothing to brag to mom about but it's not last place either. Just say'in....

 

In fact, even if we end the season with nothing better than a 5-11 record, that is an improvement; and the probability is that at the very least, we shouldn't be getting blown out like what happened last season.

 

The Jaguars won 4 games last season. Two of them came against the texans. No one expects the texans to be as bad as they were last year.

 

The jaguars were really bad last year. REALLY BAD.

 

They have done some good things, but people will need to see results before they think there is significant improvement.

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Well there you go,see? That shows me how little I know about this stuff. It makes sense that the odd's makers would concern themselves not with what they think will really happen so much as how they think the betting will go. So, I guess what this means is that the Vegas odd's makers still think that the majority of betting will not favor the Jag's. That still doesn't sound too good....

 

 

As a statistician, the mathematical model for Vegas is fascinating. They always want to construct the games, bets, etc. so that they win no matter the outcome and that takes careful consideration. For straight up/down bets, the model that works is if the money is evenly split and the winners get less than double their bet. Almost any other scenario the house could lose depending on the outcome. So considering that fans generally will vote on their teams, the least popular teams will almost always be undervalued by Vegas and the big market teams will almost always be overvalued.

 

Additionally, the Jags failed to make the over either of the last two years. Gamblers often bet trends and that's further going to push more money to the under side of the equation.

 

Personally, I think the over on the Jaguars is one of the better bets out there because while Henne's up-and-down nature will keep him from ever taking a team deep into the playoffs, it will also enable us to get some wins when he has his up games.

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I think vegas hit the nail on the head.

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I ain't no monkey... I'm an ape.

It makes sense that the odd's makers would concern themselves not with what they think will really happen so much as how they think the betting will go. So, I guess what this means is that the Vegas odd's makers still think that the majority of betting will not favor the Jag's. That still doesn't sound too good....

 

Yep that's exactly it.  If it's any consolation, they have to do that because the bettors are usually leaning towards last year's results and are less informed than the folks making the odds.  At least, that's what I tell myself.  

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I'm condescending. That means I talk down to you.