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  Trading Down From 9
Posted by: Bullseye - 1 hour ago - Replies (2)

Every year, there is a significant clamoring from many Jaguars fans urging the team to trade down and accumulate extra picks.  It is a strategy that has produced spectacular results in the past.  The Bill Walsh era 49ers utilized that strategy to produce one of the best drafts in NFL history in their 1986 draft, which produced, among others, WR John Taylor, DE/OLB Charles Haley and CB Tim McKyer.  Jimmy Johnson employed a similar strategy in building the Dallas Cowboys into the team of the 1990s.  This was perhaps best epitomized in the 1991 draft (another all time great draft class) which netted the team starting OLB Dixon Edwards, RT Erik Williams and DT Leon Lett.  More recently, the New England Patriots were able to sustain their twenty year dynasty by often trading down.  Most notably, their trading down resulted in the acquisition of TE Rob Gronkowski, among others.
However, in the Jaguars’ 25 years of drafting, trading down is a strategy the team has rarely employed, especially in the early rounds. In 2007, GM Shack Harris traded down sending the #17 overall pick to Denver in exchange for the #21, a 3rd round pick #86)amd a 6th round pick (#198).  The team DID trade down last year in the 7th round, surrendering a 2019 7th round pick to Seattle for a 6th round pick this year.  But that has proven to be the exception rather than the rule. 
 
Consistent with that overarching philosophy, current Jaguars GM Dave Caldwell has been very reluctant to trade down in the early rounds despite yearly public decrees that he is open to the idea of moving back.  He has often operated within the top 5 of the draft and in a position to get one of the players deemed to be elite talent in those drafts.  But this year seems different.  The team has a ton of needs now especially with trading away proven and productive vets like Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye and Calais Campbell.  The team is picking 9th this year, and while that position leaves the Jaguars in a good spot to land a good player, it is outside the likely realm of landing elite talent.  The overall consensus seems to be this draft is deep in some positions the Jaguars have need.  The emphasis, at least for the next couple of drafts, seems to be in accumulating picks to take advantage of that depth.

With that said, I would like to explore the Jaguars possibilities in trading back, first from the 9th overall pick, and then later from the 20th overall pick. Before continuing, I offer the caveat that I know teams are not married to or bound by the trade value chart, or that the trade value chart represented here by draftek necessarily reflects whatever chart guides GMs.  Various things will impact what a team is willing to give up or take in trade.
 
10.  Cleveland-primary need:  LT.
 Why would they trade up?  The top tier of 4 Ts in this draft might be depleted by their pick with the Giants at 4, the Dolphins at 5 the Chargers at 6 and Arizona at 8 needing T.  I do not expect all of those teams to take a T in the top ten.  However, there could be a scenario where 1 or two are left on the board and Cleveland will either want to guarantee they get the last one or their preferred choice of the remaining 2.
Why wouldn’t they trade ?  They are  just one pick behind the Jaguars.  If there are two or more Ts remaining and they like both/all, then there is no point in dealing up.
What would a trade here net for Jacksonville?  According to the trade value chart, there is a 50 point difference between the 9th and 10th picks, which loosely translates into a 4th round pick, but stranger things have happened.  The Browns once traded away a 2nd round pick to ove up from 7 to 6 in the 2004 draft.
 
11.  N.Y. Jets-Primary needs:  LT, WR
Why would they trade up?  Like the Browns, the Jets have a young QB taken high in the 2018 draft they need to protect, and getting a stud LT is key to that protection.  If there is an early run on Ts as I described above, it could come down to them vs. Cleveland for the last or preferred T in that group, and Cleveland is ahead of them.  Given their need at WR, they may also want to guarantee their choice of receiving target for Darnold.  Besides, the Jets have proven repeatedly over the years they are willing to trade up for the player they want.
Why wouldn’t they trade up?  If there are two Ts remaining from that top tier of 4 and they like both, then they might be willing to wait.  Or they may simply decide to give Darnold the best receiver on the board, which would seemingly fall in this range.
What would a trade net for Jacksonville?  According to the Drafttek chart, the difference between 9 and 11 is 100 points, or the equivalent of a low 3rd.  Note they Jets have a desperate need for an edge rusher and are rumored to be one of the teams interested in Ngakoue.  Perhaps they somehow bundle these picks and players together?
 
 
12 and 19.  Las Vegas-Primary need:  WR
Why would they trade up?  With the Cardinals theft of Hopkins from the Texans, they are not likely to pick a WR, which means barring a trade up, the top tier of 3 WRs (Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs) should still be on the board at 10.  However, if the Raiders want to guarantee their choice of the top 3 are still on the board, they will need to get ahead of the Jets, who also have a desperate need at WR.  Furthermore, with them still reaping the rewards from the Khalil Mack trade, they have the ammo needed.
Why wouldn’t they trade up?  Sitting still should still net them one of the top 3 WRs if they like all three.
What should we get in trade?  There is a 150 point difference between the 9 and the 12th pick-about a 3 and a 6.
 
13.  San Francisco-Primary needs:  WR, CB, DT
Why would they trade up?  Like the Jets and Raiders, if they have a preference for one of the top three WRs in this draft class, they may not be able to sit still and get their guy.  As for CB, the 49ers seem well positioned to land the 2nd best CB in the draft, but considering CB is a premium position, there could be those wanting to trade up to get one.  Not far below them is Tampa, who has been linked to DT and may pursue Kinlaw if the Ts are off the board.  If the 49ers wish to have a plug and play replacement for Buckner, who was traded to the Colts for this pick, they may need Kinlaw, who has been projected as high as pick 9, which means they may need to deal up to get him.
Why wouldn’t they trade up?  They are fresh off an appearance in the Super Bowl, where they controlled the game for three quarters until they succumbed to KCs speed.  Not a whole lot of pressure for Lynch at this point.  They have two first round picks and if they sit tight at 13, they should still have an excellent chance at landing one of the top three receivers, Kinlaw, or the CB of their choice.
What should we get in trade from them?  There is a 200 point difference between 9 and 13, the equivalent of a mid 3rd round pick.  The problem is, after the 31st pick in the draft, the 49ers don’t pick again until round 5.   Don’t expect a trade with them, unless they are somehow willing to surrender a 2 next year.
 
14.  Tampa Bay-Primary needs:  T, RB, DT
Why would they trade up?  See the tackle discussions above.  Tampa needs a T to help give Brady protection.  Even though they have Vita Vea and just re-signed Suh, there has been chatter about the Bucs interest in finding a cheaper and younger longer term replacement for Suh, and Kinlaw would appear to be that guy.  It is highly doubtful any need for a RB would prompt a trade up.
Why wouldn’t they trade up?  Arguably RT is not a premium position, and they may be able to get by with one of the 2md tier Ts like Jones by standing pat.  Also a good chance Kinlaw is there at 14.
What should we get in a trade from them?  There is a 250 point difference between 9 and 14, which is the equivalent of a high 3.  Tampa’s 3rd rounder is worth 210 points, so maybe their 4th round pick thrown in exchange for our 9th overall and a 6th round pick would get it done, but like San Francisco, I don’t see Tampa as being likely to move up.
 
15.  Denver-Primary needs:  WR, LT
Why would they trade up?  Similar rationale for the Jets.  Same needs as them with young QB, but lower in the draft order.   Traded down in the first round last year, may feel they can spare the picks in a smaller trade this year.  Trades are often about relationships between GMs.  Caldwell established a rapport with Elway with the Bouye trade.  Perhaps they collaborate again. 
Why wouldn’t they trade up?  In a deep and talented WR class, may be content to wait and still land a decent wideout .  Josh Jones seems to fit around this point in the draft .
What should we expect to get from them?  Difference of 300 points between 15 and 9-the equivalent of a 2nd round pick.
 
16.  Atlanta-Primary needs:  DT, CB
Why would they trade up?  See the SF discussion on CB and the Tampa rationale for DT.  Caldwell also has a rapport with the Atlanta FO.
Why wouldn’t they trade up?  I don’t believe they would need to get all the way up to 9 to land either Kinlaw or the Cb of their choice not named Okudah.
What should we get in a trade?  Per the trade chart, Jacksonville’s 9th overall, our 3rd and a 5th rounder in exchange for the 16th overall and their 2nd would be fair.
 
17.  Dallas-Primary needs:  DT, CB, WR
Why would they trade up?  See SF discussion on CB.  While they just signed Gerald McCoy to man a DT spot, he is not a long term solution to the problem.  There is a drop off in quality between Kinlaw and Blackstock, just like there is a drop from the top 3 WRs and the next group.  Jerry Jones likes making a splash in the draft.
Why wouldn’t they trade up?  If they sit tight, CB meets need and value at 17, the depth of the WR class enables them to wait until round 2.
What should we get from them?  The 17, 51 and a 5th rounder (#179 in the absence of a 6th rounder) should do the trick.
 
18.  Miami-Primary needs:  QB, LT, RT, WR, RB
Why would they trade up?  They have ample ammunition for the next two drafts.  Assuming they take a QB with their first of three first round picks this year, they still need to protect him.  While Josh Jones would be a decent choice here, there is no guarantee he will be there at 18.  Besides, the Fish may prefer one of the top tier Ts, in which case, they would need to get above Cleveland to get one of them.
Why wouldn’t they trade up?  They accumulated all of those picks and they have a ton of needs.  Just about any pick they make in the first three rounds would potentially upgrade an incumbent.
What should we get from them?  With a difference of 450 points from 18- 9, The easiest route would be Jacksonville sends the 9 and their 3rd rounder to Miami for the 18 and pick 39.  Miami also has the 56th overall pick (340 points) if they don’t want to come off of the 39th pick which would leave a difference of 110 points.  But even though they have the picks to do so, I don’t see Miami trading up to 9.
 
21.  Philadelphia –Primary needs:  WR, Edge, T
Why would they trade up?  They have a desperate need for speed at the WR spot, and all offseason long, they have been linked to Ruggs, who won’t be there for them at 21.  They have also lost two key LTs in Jason Peters (ancient but still good) and the guy who filled in admirably for him during the Eagles last Super Bowl run, Vatai (?), who went to Detroit.
Why wouldn’t they trade up?  I don’t think Caldwell would trade that far down from 9, TBH, but if the Eagles were desperate enough, I could see them wiling to move up-if the price is right.
What should we get from them?   With a point differential of 550, the Eagles would have to surrender the 21 (800), the 53 (370) 103 (88) and still have to make up another 92 points to equal things out.
 
 

As always your thoughts are welcomed.

Continue reading..

  QB odds
Posted by: TheDogCatcher - Yesterday, 05:44 PM - Replies (10)

What are your odds Caldwell takes a QB in the first round?

And if your odds are above 50%, which QB not named Joe do you think he will be?

Continue reading..

  NFL.com - O'Brien: Hopkins trade was in Texans' 'best interest'
Posted by: Tinhorn - 04-03-2020, 06:55 PM - Replies (1)

O'Brien: Hopkins trade was in Texans' 'best interest'

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001...t-interest


Why again did the Texans trade DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals? Bill O'Brien said it was primarily because the All-Pro wideout wanted a raise despite having three years left on his contract.

Continue reading..

  Some interesting draft odds
Posted by: JackCity - 04-03-2020, 06:34 PM - Replies (9)

My bookie released a ton of prop bets with some interesting numbers for prospects 

Some notable over/unders for draft position

Herbert - 5
Andrew Thomas - 11
Love - 17
Jefferson - 22
Epenesa - 29
Delpit - 31 
Terrell - 34
Fulton - 24
Henderson - 16
Gladney - 35
Jeudy - 11
Lamb - 12
Ruggs - 14 
Mims - 33

Also they have the Jags as more likely to take defense than offense

Continue reading..

  NFL.com - Titans RB Derrick Henry signs franchise tender
Posted by: Tack - 04-02-2020, 01:35 PM - Replies (3)

Titans RB Derrick Henry signs franchise tender

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001...ise-tender


Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry has signed his franchise tender, NFL Network's Mike Giardi reported. Henry can still come to an agreement on a long-term deal with the Titans before July 15.

Continue reading..

  Best LB to fit with Schobert and Jack?
Posted by: Andy G - 04-02-2020, 12:14 PM - Replies (11)

Of the various linebackers likely to be available in the draft (so let’s exclude Simmons) which ones would be the best fit with Schobert and Jack?

Is there any point picking someone like Queen or Murray for instance?  What about Baun?

Continue reading..

  CB Tiers
Posted by: JNev - 04-02-2020, 09:36 AM - Replies (21)

Okudah is clearly by himself, but how does it breakdown after that?

Okudah

Henderson/Gladney
Fulton/Igbinoghene/Diggs
Terrell/Johnson/Dantzler
Arnette/Hall/Pride Jr.

Thoughts?

Continue reading..

  The Albino Tiger
Posted by: flgatorsandjags - 04-02-2020, 07:12 AM - Replies (13)

Is there a certain date we need to cut him before he gets some guarantee money? Are we not gonna cut Lee?  I'm at the point now where we just need to keep him this year because it doesn't look like we will use the money  else where

Continue reading..

  This Franchise is in a bad place, what were the late 90’s like?
Posted by: MojoKing - 04-01-2020, 04:42 PM - Replies (20)

Does everyone else feel it? I feel this overwhelming aura of negativity about our Jaguars. 

  -   Foles
  -   Ramsey
- 5-11
- Tom fired
- NFLPA announces don’t sign
- Ngakoue
- Our D from 2017 is gone
- 2 Games in London

It feels as though we are perceived as being a slightly better organization than the Bengals, even though we’ve had a better record than most of the bottom feeder teams for 3 years. Players of a high caliber wouldn’t want to sign here, draft picks don’t want to end up here.

Can we survive another 5-11 season? 
How do we fix this? Can we fix it long term? Is Jacksonville truly just too small a market to appeal to people? Does winning truly fix the problem?
I wasn’t a football guy in the late 90’s so I don’t know what it was like when we were a respectable franchise. Did the national media respect and give exposure to Jimmy? Keenan? Boselli? Taylor? Brackens? Or did the national media just dismiss the Jaguars?

Continue reading..

  NFL.com - Roundup: Texans signing Tim Jernigan to 1-year deal
Posted by: Tinhorn - 04-01-2020, 04:05 PM - No Replies

Roundup: Texans signing Tim Jernigan to 1-year deal

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001...1year-deal


Defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan is signing a one-year deal with the Houston Texans worth up to $3.75 million, Ian Rapoport reported, per his agent. Here are the other moves we're monitoring Wednesday.

Continue reading..

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