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Shout out to Blake.


(01-24-2018, 03:21 PM)jagsfan1983 Wrote: He was a play here or there from getting us to the Super Bowl. The moment wasn't too big for him going on the road to Pittsburgh and New England in January. He could have folded like a tent after getting his first playoff win and nobody would have been surprised or necessarily blamed him in his first playoff experience. Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith are a combined 2-8 in the playoffs. Smith couldn't muster a second half point at home against the Titans to get eliminated this year. People are acting like these guys are nails. Alex Smith until this breakout year at 33 has made a career out of being a game manager that throws for 15-20 touchdowns a season and limits turnovers. Smith and Cousins aren't elite options. Smith's QB Rating in 7 years with San Fran was worse than Bortles. Same with Cousins first few years. The more time in the league, the more the game slows down for QBs. Blake is only 25.
That's what they're asking Blake to do and Smith is better than Bortles at that.
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(01-24-2018, 03:22 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(01-24-2018, 03:21 PM)jagsfan1983 Wrote: He was a play here or there from getting us to the Super Bowl. The moment wasn't too big for him going on the road to Pittsburgh and New England in January. He could have folded like a tent after getting his first playoff win and nobody would have been surprised or necessarily blamed him in his first playoff experience. Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith are a combined 2-8 in the playoffs. Smith couldn't muster a second half point at home against the Titans to get eliminated this year. People are acting like these guys are nails. Alex Smith until this breakout year at 33 has made a career out of being a game manager that throws for 15-20 touchdowns a season and limits turnovers. Smith and Cousins aren't elite options. Smith's QB Rating in 7 years with San Fran was worse than Bortles. Same with Cousins first few years. The more time in the league, the more the game slows down for QBs. Blake is only 25.
That's what they're asking Blake to do and Smith is better than Bortles at that.

He had a 2.1% INT rate on the year which is top half of the league. Save for 2 meaningless games at the end of the season when the Jags had the division wrapped up he had an interception rate of 1.5%. That is elite. Only 3 players had a lower INT % than that. And guess what? He has improved that percentage every season. Similar to basically every other young quarterback entering the league.
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Blake will start next year. He also will be significantly better. Hell, he spotted his D a 10 point lead into the 4th damn quarter of the AFCCG.
Looking to troll? Don't bother, we supply our own.

 

 
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(01-24-2018, 03:33 PM)jagsfan1983 Wrote:
(01-24-2018, 03:22 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: That's what they're asking Blake to do and Smith is better than Bortles at that.

He had a 2.1% INT rate on the year which is top half of the league. Save for 2 meaningless games at the end of the season when the Jags had the division wrapped up he had an interception rate of 1.5%. That is elite. Only 3 players had a lower INT % than that. And guess what? He has improved that percentage every season. Similar to basically every other young quarterback entering the league.
2 meaningless games? You mean when they still could have earned the #1 seed? Hindsight is 20/20 and the Pats and Steelers didn't lose one of the last 2 but the Jags still had something to play for.

Blake also consistently goes up against 8 or 9 in the box which means he has single coverage on pretty much every single play. You can't compare his stats to other QBs who don't see that type of defense.
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(01-24-2018, 03:38 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(01-24-2018, 03:33 PM)jagsfan1983 Wrote: He had a 2.1% INT rate on the year which is top half of the league. Save for 2 meaningless games at the end of the season when the Jags had the division wrapped up he had an interception rate of 1.5%. That is elite. Only 3 players had a lower INT % than that. And guess what? He has improved that percentage every season. Similar to basically every other young quarterback entering the league.
2 meaningless games? You mean when they still could have earned the #1 seed? Hindsight is 20/20 and the Pats and Steelers didn't lose one of the last 2 but the Jags still had something to play for.

Blake also consistently goes up against 8 or 9 in the box which means he has single coverage on pretty much every single play. You can't compare his stats to other QBs who don't see that type of defense.

Well we can agree at least the last week was meaningless as the Steelers and Patriots finished with 13 wins and the Jags 10 so they both had a 2 game lead in the final week. I don't remember all the logistics to stay alive for the bye in the second to last week but may have Steelers losing to the Browns and the Patriots losing to the Jets. So maybe you are right. Again I hear this 9 in the box argument, but do you have some sort of metric to show the defenses he faced vs the rest of the league and percentage where teams were stacking the box? I am unsure where you find this information that teams are playing him exclusively single coverage, but somehow he throws for 21 touchdowns and the team is the best in the league at running the ball. Is the O-line just that elite?
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Football Outsiders advanced metrics say this about Bortles (doesn't include playoffs)

2014 - 44th best QB
2015 - 25th best QB
2016 - 23rd best QB
2017 - 15th best QB (Kirk Cousins is 16th, Alex Smith 9th)

I like the career trajectory.
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(01-24-2018, 03:47 PM)jagsfan1983 Wrote:
(01-24-2018, 03:38 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: 2 meaningless games? You mean when they still could have earned the #1 seed? Hindsight is 20/20 and the Pats and Steelers didn't lose one of the last 2 but the Jags still had something to play for.

Blake also consistently goes up against 8 or 9 in the box which means he has single coverage on pretty much every single play. You can't compare his stats to other QBs who don't see that type of defense.

Well we can agree at least the last week was meaningless as the Steelers and Patriots finished with 13 wins and the Jags 10 so they both had a 2 game lead in the final week. I don't remember all the logistics to stay alive for the bye in the second to last week but may have Steelers losing to the Browns and the Patriots losing to the Jets. So maybe you are right. Again I hear this 9 in the box argument, but do you have some sort of metric to show the defenses he faced vs the rest of the league and percentage where teams were stacking the box? I am unsure where you find this information that teams are playing him exclusively single coverage, but somehow he throws for 21 touchdowns and the team is the best in the league at running the ball. Is the O-line just that elite?
Fournette saw 8+ men in the box 48% of the time. That's an insane number. If you watched the Jags games this year, it's not hard to see how teams were playing this Jags offense. Load the box and force Blake to throw. Just about every single team did it which should allow Blake to see easier defenses when he drops back to pass.

The last game of the season may have been meaningless but he still played. If he had dropped 300 and 3 TDs in that game, I'm sure you would use that to help boost your argument. Blake played average this year. He threw for 20 TDs and 13 interceptions. There are probably a lot of QBs who could do that.
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(01-24-2018, 04:30 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(01-24-2018, 03:47 PM)jagsfan1983 Wrote: Well we can agree at least the last week was meaningless as the Steelers and Patriots finished with 13 wins and the Jags 10 so they both had a 2 game lead in the final week. I don't remember all the logistics to stay alive for the bye in the second to last week but may have Steelers losing to the Browns and the Patriots losing to the Jets. So maybe you are right. Again I hear this 9 in the box argument, but do you have some sort of metric to show the defenses he faced vs the rest of the league and percentage where teams were stacking the box? I am unsure where you find this information that teams are playing him exclusively single coverage, but somehow he throws for 21 touchdowns and the team is the best in the league at running the ball. Is the O-line just that elite?
Fournette saw 8+ men in the box 48% of the time. That's an insane number. If you watched the Jags games this year, it's not hard to see how teams were playing this Jags offense. Load the box and force Blake to throw. Just about every single team did it which should allow Blake to see easier defenses when he drops back to pass.

The last game of the season may have been meaningless but he still played. If he had dropped 300 and 3 TDs in that game, I'm sure you would use that to help boost your argument. Blake played average this year. He threw for 20 TDs and 13 interceptions. There are probably a lot of QBs who could do that.


A lot of that 8 men in the box can he attributed to us running a lot of big formations with 1 or 2 wrs. Evens it out when you limit your receiving threats as well.
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(01-24-2018, 04:30 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(01-24-2018, 03:47 PM)jagsfan1983 Wrote: Well we can agree at least the last week was meaningless as the Steelers and Patriots finished with 13 wins and the Jags 10 so they both had a 2 game lead in the final week. I don't remember all the logistics to stay alive for the bye in the second to last week but may have Steelers losing to the Browns and the Patriots losing to the Jets. So maybe you are right. Again I hear this 9 in the box argument, but do you have some sort of metric to show the defenses he faced vs the rest of the league and percentage where teams were stacking the box? I am unsure where you find this information that teams are playing him exclusively single coverage, but somehow he throws for 21 touchdowns and the team is the best in the league at running the ball. Is the O-line just that elite?
Fournette saw 8+ men in the box 48% of the time. That's an insane number. If you watched the Jags games this year, it's not hard to see how teams were playing this Jags offense. Load the box and force Blake to throw. Just about every single team did it which should allow Blake to see easier defenses when he drops back to pass.

The last game of the season may have been meaningless but he still played. If he had dropped 300 and 3 TDs in that game, I'm sure you would use that to help boost your argument. Blake played average this year. He threw for 20 TDs and 13 interceptions. There are probably a lot of QBs who could do that.

Where do you see the data for plays with 8+ in the box. I’d be interested to see it. There are other quarterbacks that can put up 21/13 or 24/13 including playoffs. Probably about 15 to 20 on earth. I wouldn’t call it a lot.
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(01-24-2018, 04:30 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(01-24-2018, 03:47 PM)jagsfan1983 Wrote: Well we can agree at least the last week was meaningless as the Steelers and Patriots finished with 13 wins and the Jags 10 so they both had a 2 game lead in the final week. I don't remember all the logistics to stay alive for the bye in the second to last week but may have Steelers losing to the Browns and the Patriots losing to the Jets. So maybe you are right. Again I hear this 9 in the box argument, but do you have some sort of metric to show the defenses he faced vs the rest of the league and percentage where teams were stacking the box? I am unsure where you find this information that teams are playing him exclusively single coverage, but somehow he throws for 21 touchdowns and the team is the best in the league at running the ball. Is the O-line just that elite?
Fournette saw 8+ men in the box 48% of the time. That's an insane number. If you watched the Jags games this year, it's not hard to see how teams were playing this Jags offense. Load the box and force Blake to throw. Just about every single team did it which should allow Blake to see easier defenses when he drops back to pass.

The last game of the season may have been meaningless but he still played. If he had dropped 300 and 3 TDs in that game, I'm sure you would use that to help boost your argument. Blake played average this year. He threw for 20 TDs and 13 interceptions. There are probably a lot of QBs who could do that.

Everybody already knows what we faced so many 8-9 man boxes, because WE made them 8-9 man boxes with the play calling. When you only send one WR out wide and have Fournette lined up in the I formation, what do you think we're going to do? The same exact thing we've did all season long, run it straight into the middle of the pile, or to the left of the pile. So, why wouldn't they stack the box?

If you have 3-4 WRs going out wide, they aren't stacking 8-9 guys in the box and cluttering it up with bodies. If you want to be a smash mouth team and line up 9 guys on the LoS in a blocking formation, you better be ready for 10 guys stacking and crashing the box on the other side.
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(01-24-2018, 06:25 PM)Eric1 Wrote:
(01-24-2018, 04:30 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: Fournette saw 8+ men in the box 48% of the time. That's an insane number. If you watched the Jags games this year, it's not hard to see how teams were playing this Jags offense. Load the box and force Blake to throw. Just about every single team did it which should allow Blake to see easier defenses when he drops back to pass.

The last game of the season may have been meaningless but he still played. If he had dropped 300 and 3 TDs in that game, I'm sure you would use that to help boost your argument. Blake played average this year. He threw for 20 TDs and 13 interceptions. There are probably a lot of QBs who could do that.

Everybody already knows what we faced so many 8-9 man boxes, because WE made them 8-9 man boxes with the play calling. When you only send one WR out wide and have Fournette lined up in the I formation, what do you think we're going to do? The same exact thing we've did all season long, run it straight into the middle of the pile, or to the left of the pile. So, why wouldn't they stack the box?

If you have 3-4 WRs going out wide, they aren't stacking 8-9 guys in the box and cluttering it up with bodies. If you want to be a smash mouth team and line up 9 guys on the LoS in a blocking formation, you better be ready for 10 guys stacking and crashing the box on the other side.

Yeah I'm not sure all the reasons, but it makes sense that formation dictates how many defenders are in the box. Last season Ivory had a 21% rate and Yeldon an 18% rate, so must be something in the offensive playcalling and formations. I mean LeGarrette Blount had a 43% stacked box last season. Must mean that teams don't trust Brady to throw.
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