I guess my question would be who would want to trade up with us, and for whom?

If there are teams that somehow missed out on the first tier of QBs, I would imagine they might be interested in trading up if we were not interested in a guy like Rudolph.

But who would be the candidates?

Minnesota and New England?  Not likely considering how close they are to us in the draft order.  Perhaps if Minnesota missed out on Cousins and signed a temporary placeholder at QB then were in the market for a longer term solution, maybe New England might be interested, but that's a longshot.

At the top of the 2nd round...

Cleveland likely would not be interested (see above).  Perhaps if the Giants took Barkley in round one, they might be interested in dealing up, but then there likely would not be any need for the reasons listed above.  I think if Rudolph were on the board, and the Giants had an interest, maybe they'd have to jump ahead of New England.

The Colts likely would not deal up for three reasons.  First, they likely would not be interested in a QB because they have Luck.  Secondly, if Luck were a question mark, they are already in a position to take a QB at #3.  Furthermore, even if they were interested in replacing Luck and did not do so at 3, it is unlikely TC 7 Caldwell would trade within the division.  

The Jets would certainly be a candidate to trade up if they did not get the guy they wanted in FA or in round 1, and they certainly are not shy about making a move up, but I suspect they would be more inclined to try to move up in the first round to get their guy.  If Cousins landed either in Cleveland or Denver, quite possibly they stay at 6 and get their guy, though as I type this, Cleveland is supposedly out of the Cousins competition according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.    Basically it's a three way competition between Arizona, Minnesota, and the Jets.

Denver would seem to be in a good position to obtain a QB at 5 if they are not in the Cousin's competition.  The candidates to trade up after that would be Miami (again) and Arizona if they don't land the free agency QB they want, but would the Jaguars be well served to deal down that far?

Other positions that could lead a team to trade up?  Tough to say, but if PFW's takes are accurate. maybe CB could drive the trade down demand at the bottom of the first, top of the 2nd round.

From picks 25 (Tennessee) to 30 (Minnesota) there are a stretch of teams that are pretty well stocked at CB.  But New England has a pretty major hole (for them) at the position.   After Philadelphia, the Browns, Giants, Colts, Jets, Bucs, Bears and Raiders all have holes at CB.  If a couple of guys fall, then perhaps some other teams at the bottom of the first will deal down for CB hungry teams looking to replicate the success of Jacksonville, New Orleans and Minnesota.

(Emphasis added)

Impossible to tell until draft day. We have no clue which prospects may fall and draft day trades. We are used to not really paying attention after top 10, but quite often teams sneak back into the first round late and get a guy they want.

Agreed completely, which is why I offered the emphasized phrasing above.

As for bottom of the first round/top of the 2nd speculation, I tend to do this every year.  Of course, it's wildly speculative every year for the very reasons you cite, but for me it's fun to kick around the possibilities and what is likely/unlikely to happen and why.  But heck, we're not even out of the combine yet, to say nothing of starting free agency, etc.  I have zero illusions my speculation above will in any way dictate what will happen at any stage or reflect what WILL happen at this stage.

All I can do is offer reasons why things may or may not happen or teams may or may not act.

That said, I am pretty confident regarding my TE analysis.  

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Last year Cleveland traded up from the first pick of the second round to get the 29th pick of Green Bay (which is our position at the moment) and gave up a 4th round pick (in addition to their second round pick of course) for that.
They took Njoku with that trade.

So anything can happen, Cleveland and Jets are the teams I see as most likely to do a trade up eventually as they have some ammo.
But it's too hard to predict at the moment, need to see how FA plays out,which players fall down the board and so on.

Good information in the first part.

Agreed completely in the closing paragraph, but it's still fun to kick around.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

After the free agency signings of the day, I think there may be some additional incentive for teams (most notably Cleveland) to trade up to our spot.

As you know, the Browns lost All Pro T Joe Thomas to retirement. Also, New England lost Nate Solder to free agency.

While the Browns tried to buffer against the impact of a Joe Thomas retirement by signing T Donald Stephenson, the fact is, in no stretch of the imagination could he be considered a long term solution at LT.

While the Browns have two picks in the top 4, unfortunately for them, no LT prospect in this draft looks to have a top 5 value, even knowing Ts tend to go in the top 5 seemingly every year.

However, by many Mocks, T Connor Williams, Mike McGlinchey (more a RT), and O'Neill out of Pittsburgh all seem to be mid to late first round-2nd round picks.

With both teams now desperate to provide protection for their QBs, both could trade up in the effort to land one of these blind side blockers. Considering Jason Peters' age, you could easily add the Eagles to that mix of teams possibly needing a young blind side blocker.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I think a trade back is very, very likely at this point. I believe Jackson, Rudolph and White should all go somewhere in round 2. We could trade down into the top part of round 2 and get Mason Rudolph or we could trade down to the bottom part of round 2, get more back in return and add Mike White. As you know, I'm a huge Rudolph fan, but I'd be o.k. with either scenario.

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I'm not seeing the value in trading back. If anything, if we have an eye on someone we "must have" - I see us trading up.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

Taking the roster and future cap into consideration, I would take quantity of picks over quality of picks.

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After all of the signings they've made now. I actually see a trade UP. Not a trade down. They've loaded up the TE position. They retained Lee and brought back Wynn. They already have Cole and Westbrook. They let the biggest receiver they had on the roster walk to Chicago. And they very well may end up cutting Hurns between tonight and sometime tomorrow before his roster bonus is due. Lageman thought he was going to get cut LAST year during the pre season. I think it happens now.

They added a big guard to keep the ground game stronger. They've replaced Colvin with Hayden as well. That really only leaves a glaring hole at OLB with Paul's recent retirement. I am willing to bet that they try to move up to land Roquan Smith at OLB from my Bulldogs or they end up getting a safety like Derwin James just to add another freakish athlete to the defense that could possibly be in a hybrid role and move deep into coverage or play inside the box kind of like a Thomas Davis type of athlete that can roam. Wouldn't be shocked at all now if they move up on opening draft night to land either one of them.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

I'm not seeing the value in trading back.  If anything, if we have an eye on someone we "must have" - I see us trading up.

I see value in trading back if TE is still a top priority in the draft.  Because of last year's bumper crop of TEs, we could have traded back and still gotten the TE we wanted most likely and still picked up an extra pick or two.  With the ASJ signing, I don't think it is. 

Now in the event the team decides to plan for salary departures next year and depth overall, trading back also has value for us.  For instance, if the team knows it will dump Malik Jackson or Dareus or Abry Jones next year, and a DT is on the board, he could be groomed for a year behind those guys.

Now if the emphasis is on getting an immediate starter, then trading up makes sense.

I would be for trading up to ensure we got Hernandez.  If the team has targeted a WR, I would also consider moving up for one, too.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

After all of the signings they've made now.  I actually see a trade UP. Not a trade down. They've loaded up the TE position. They retained Lee and brought back Wynn. They already have Cole and Westbrook. They let the biggest receiver they had on the roster walk to Chicago. And they very well may end up cutting Hurns between tonight and sometime tomorrow before his roster bonus is due. Lageman thought he was going to get cut LAST year during the pre season. I think it happens now.

They added a big guard to keep the ground game stronger. They've replaced Colvin with Hayden as well. That really only leaves a glaring hole at OLB with Paul's recent retirement. I am willing to bet that they try to move up to land Roquan Smith at OLB from my Bulldogs or they end up getting a safety like Derwin James just to add another freakish athlete to the defense that could possibly be in a hybrid role and move deep into coverage or play inside the box kind of like a Thomas Davis type of athlete that can roam. Wouldn't be shocked at all now if they move up on opening draft night to land either one of them.

Over the past couple of days, I've thought about the possibility of adding a S.

I like Gipson as a player, and way more importantly, the coaches do.

But as I think about the breakdowns in the secondary late in the year, (Big Ben's TD right before halftime, the 3rd and 18 completion by Brady, and the TD pass by Brady late) it seems he was beaten each time.

If somehow James were on the board, I'd be okay with the team taking him.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

After all of the signings they've made now.  I actually see a trade UP. Not a trade down. They've loaded up the TE position. They retained Lee and brought back Wynn. They already have Cole and Westbrook. They let the biggest receiver they had on the roster walk to Chicago. And they very well may end up cutting Hurns between tonight and sometime tomorrow before his roster bonus is due. Lageman thought he was going to get cut LAST year during the pre season. I think it happens now.

They added a big guard to keep the ground game stronger. They've replaced Colvin with Hayden as well. That really only leaves a glaring hole at OLB with Paul's recent retirement. I am willing to bet that they try to move up to land Roquan Smith at OLB from my Bulldogs or they end up getting a safety like Derwin James just to add another freakish athlete to the defense that could possibly be in a hybrid role and move deep into coverage or play inside the box kind of like a Thomas Davis type of athlete that can roam. Wouldn't be shocked at all now if they move up on opening draft night to land either one of them.

Over the past couple of days, I've thought about the possibility of adding a S.

I like Gipson as a player, and way more importantly, the coaches do.

But as I think about the breakdowns in the secondary late in the year, (Big Ben's TD right before halftime, the 3rd and 18 completion by Brady, and the TD pass by Brady late) it seems he was beaten each time.

If somehow James were on the board, I'd be okay with the team taking him.

If there is cap room, what would you think about signing Tyran Mathieu?  It would mean saying goodbye to Gipson, I think.  Kid's a ball hawk and would provide some electric plays.

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Fix the O-Line!

Over the past couple of days, I've thought about the possibility of adding a S.

I like Gipson as a player, and way more importantly, the coaches do.

But as I think about the breakdowns in the secondary late in the year, (Big Ben's TD right before halftime, the 3rd and 18 completion by Brady, and the TD pass by Brady late) it seems he was beaten each time.

If somehow James were on the board, I'd be okay with the team taking him.

If there is cap room, what would you think about signing Tyran Mathieu?  It would mean saying goodbye to Gipson, I think.  Kid's a ball hawk and would provide some electric plays.

I've been kicking around this idea too. 

Mathieu would put this defense on a higher level.  Not sure how we could add him though.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I'm not seeing the value in trading back.  If anything, if we have an eye on someone we "must have" - I see us trading up.

I say stay put. At #29 we're still in position for a top player or two to fall to us. Any later and we just don't get a shot at any of them. Then again, it may depend on who falls. If it's a player the Jaguars just don't really need, and somebody wants to overpay like the Jets just did, then it might be worth considering. But if a potential starter like Vander Esch, Courtland Sutton, Dallas Goedert, Isaia Wynn or Will Hernandez, then just stay put and take him.

More to the point, it's not worth trading up because anyone making it out of the first half of round one may very well fall to the end of the round, and it would take too much ammo for us to get into the first half of the round. Besides, history keeps repeating that attempts to trade up more often than not backfire.


BTW, has anyone else noticed Bucky Brooks mock draft. It gets interesting...

26. Falcons - DT Da'Ron Payne
27. Saints - QB Baker Mayfield
28. Steelers - QB Lamar Jackson
29. Jaguars - LB Rashaan Evans

He's got Vander Esch falling out of round one, but he's still my guy there.

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'02

I'm not seeing the value in trading back.  If anything, if we have an eye on someone we "must have" - I see us trading up.

I say stay put. At #29 we're still in position for a top player or two to fall to us. Any later and we just don't get a shot at any of them. Then again, it may depend on who falls. If it's a player the Jaguars just don't really need, and somebody wants to overpay like the Jets just did, then it might be worth considering. But if a potential starter like Vander Esch, Courtland Sutton, Dallas Goedert, Isaia Wynn or Will Hernandez, then just stay put and take him.

More to the point, it's not worth trading up because anyone making it out of the first half of round one may very well fall to the end of the round, and it would take too much ammo for us to get into the first half of the round. Besides, history keeps repeating that attempts to trade up more often than not backfire.


BTW, has anyone else noticed Bucky Brooks mock draft. It gets interesting...

26. Falcons - DT Da'Ron Payne
27. Saints - QB Baker Mayfield
28. Steelers - QB Lamar Jackson
29. Jaguars - LB Rashaan Evans

He's got Vander Esch falling out of round one, but he's still my guy there.

Bucky changed his draft.

He now (as of 3/19/18) has:

26. FALCONS - DL Da'Ron Payne
27. SAINTS - DL Tavin Bryan
28. STEELERS - LB Leighton Vander Esch
29. JAGUARS - QB Lamar Jackson

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I say stay put. At #29 we're still in position for a top player or two to fall to us. Any later and we just don't get a shot at any of them. Then again, it may depend on who falls. If it's a player the Jaguars just don't really need, and somebody wants to overpay like the Jets just did, then it might be worth considering. But if a potential starter like Vander Esch, Courtland Sutton, Dallas Goedert, Isaia Wynn or Will Hernandez, then just stay put and take him.

More to the point, it's not worth trading up because anyone making it out of the first half of round one may very well fall to the end of the round, and it would take too much ammo for us to get into the first half of the round. Besides, history keeps repeating that attempts to trade up more often than not backfire.


BTW, has anyone else noticed Bucky Brooks mock draft. It gets interesting...

26. Falcons - DT Da'Ron Payne
27. Saints - QB Baker Mayfield
28. Steelers - QB Lamar Jackson
29. Jaguars - LB Rashaan Evans

He's got Vander Esch falling out of round one, but he's still my guy there.

Bucky changed his draft.

He now (as of 3/19/18) has:

26. FALCONS - DL Da'Ron Payne
27. SAINTS - DL Tavin Bryan
28. STEELERS - LB Leighton Vander Esch
29. JAGUARS - QB Lamar Jackson

Yuk! That is worse than it was before.

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