I think you're right, there's a good chance it'll be QB or Oline in the first.

I have a sneaky feeling they might be after Jackson. They may have a plan of exactly what our running-based offense should look like, with a QB heavily involved in that. Norwell's experience with Cam could be part of that. Obviously there's a whole lot of mights, mays and coulds in there. Nobody really knows.

It doesn't makes sense, though, to me, for them to say, we're going to the Super Bowl with Blake, and at the same time, we're drafting a QB in the first round to replace Blake.   That's why I think it is much more likely at pick #29 they will pick an offensive lineman rather than a QB.  I mean, how can they "express confidence in our QB" and then turn right around and draft his replacement?  

It appears the team has committed itself to the idea of building a talented team that can overcome average QB play.  That tells me, they're not going to pick a QB in the first round.   They're going to pick a guy who can start and really help the team win.

You could be right. Everything they have done indicates they'd draft a guy who would start immediately since one never knows how long the window will remain open. That would pretty much narrow it down to offensive line or linebacker in the first round. I still think that it would be hard to pass on a quarterback they really like and didn't think would make it to their pick. Finding true franchise quarterbacks is one of the most difficult things for NFL teams to do and if they think Rudolph or Jackson can be that I think it would be a "no brainer." Everyone is pulling for Blake to become that guy, but his body of work does not give fans a lot of confidence this will happen.

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It's always the plan but things never go to plan, and the rookie goes in. Mahomes is the only one I can think of that has actually sat his whole rookie year, and that was because Smith was playing at such a high level last season. Perfect situation would be Blake playing well the whole year and giving us huge trade value, but history says odds are against it.

That's a grim outlook, but completely unconvincing for me. 

Things do indeed go according to plan sometimes and fear of failure is no reason not to make a strategic move at the quarterback position.

QBs that sat their first year:  Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, Jared Goff

We just haven't seen it much lately. Doesn't mean it can't be done - and the Jags seem to be in a nearly perfect stance to try it.

I agree, it definitely shouldn't stop them from going after a QB, my point is just that if they do draft a QB in the first, odds are he will be starting sooner rather than later.

Goff started in his rookie year eventually didn't he? And the rest of them are from a different era in NFL terms, patience seems to be a thing of the past.

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Each case is different.

I believe QBs learn more through playing than sitting but that it's not always smart to play a QB you wish to develop in adverse situations.

Generally I believe talent wins out but there are situations where it's beneficial for everyone that a QB sits.

For instance this year I think Josh Rosen absolutely is ready to start day 1 and can face whatever is thrown his way. Where as guys like Darnold, Lamar, and Allen would all be much better suited to sitting a year. Mayfield could start day 1 too.

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The most prominent hallmark of whether or not the first round pick was a success used to be longevity. Time was ANY first round pick (other than QB) was expected to play right away and give the franchise a good character guy for a minimum of seven years to spending his entire career on the same team. You don't have much about first round busts prior to the NFL-AFL merger, do you?

True many could not crack the starting line-up right away, but if you were a first round pick there really wasn't a lot of pressure to start, mainly due to the fact that there were fewer NFL teams. If you were drafted in the first round, it was only a matter of time before you were given the nod, but not a day too soon.

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Unless I have missed something, the chart can be misleading.

The criteria is whether the pick becomes a quality starter.

My first concern is over what time frame/for whom? A player may not become a quality starter for the team that drafted him, but it doesn't mean he was a bad draft pick.

Sometimes, the circumstances into which he was drafted determines whether he becomes a quality starter. Mark Brunell was drafted by Green Bay, who already had a young Brett Favre already entrenched as the starter at QB.

Depending upon how you look at it, it could wrongly be considered by this chart one of two ways.

1. He could count as a good pick by the Packers, even though he never saw the field for the Packers and didn't become a starter until he became a Jaguar.

2. He could count as a bad pick by the Packers, even though they accurately evaluated his talent as a viable NFL QB.

Sometimes, there are player related circumstances that dictate whether it was a good pick or not. The Atlanta Falcons picked Brett Favre in the 2nd round in 1991. However, because he was a bit of a party animal his rookie year, then coach Jerry Glanville thought it best to trade him after his rookie year. He became a Hall of Famer in Green Bay. The team made the correct evaluation on the player, but the player did not become a quality starter until going elsewhere. Dallas selected WR Jimmy Smith in 1992. He had a broken leg his rookie year, and his second year he had an appendix injury. He wound up being cut in a dispute with Dallas owner Jerry Jones. Smith eventually became a quality starter for the Jaguars.

Again, how do these circumstances count in the percentages?

Furthermore, the chart presumes that because the player does not become a quality starter, he has no value to the team that drafted him. QB Frank Reich (the same guy now coaching Indy) was drafted by Buffalo in the mid 1980s. He never became a quality starter because he played the bulk of his career behind Jim Kelly. however, Reich was a valued backup, and when Kelly was injured, Reich came through for Buffalo in grand style, including authoring the biggest comeback in NFL playoff history. There have been plenty of good non QB like 3rd down RBs like Dave Meggett, nickel backs like Aaron Colvin who were never considered quality starters who nevertheless were assets to the teams that drafted them.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!