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A Notable Absence From the Board

#41

Where you destroy value is where you over-weigh need in such an imbalanced way that you end up reaching for an inferior (incomparable true value) player solely because you feel you "have to have" a player from a particular position.

That's where you completely destroy franchises and keep them in the cellar long term.
"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."
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#42
(This post was last modified: 03-06-2019, 09:45 PM by Bullseye.)

(03-06-2019, 06:31 PM)Deacon Wrote: Along the lines of BAP vs. Need, I read the book War Room by Michael Holley. It goes through Bill Belichik's mental image on how a football organization was shaped and how it communicated with itself. This post may get a bit wordy, but I think there are some very good "eye-opening" aspects to the book that really changed how I thought about the draft.

One of the major issues that Belichik tackled while with Cleveland and then in New England was that the Coaching Staff, the Pro Personnel department and the Scouting department all used different terminologies when they rated a player. The details here aren't that important but for example, a position coach would rate his Linebacker as a 'B', the Pro Personnel people would rate a Free Agent as 'Silver' and the Scouts would rate potential draft picks as a 'Third Rounder'. So when you tried to view what you had versus what was available, there was no easy way to rate all of the players. Furthermore, he made certain that all scouts did as much research as they could to determine a player's 'coachability'.

Belichik, through much struggle, finally got everyone onto the same page in terms of language and then pushed the idea of "who is out there that can come in and help us?" Essentially, placing Need at the forefront of the process but making sure that Value, read as Best Available, was in the discussion. Due to this, rating a player in relation to the draft went away. They would actually be surprised when they would hear teams rate players in terms of Draft Round. This simplified both their Free Agency and Draft approach down to a statement of 'this player can come in and help us' or 'this player cannot help us'.

Thoughts?

That is a great book.

To be clear, though I have been heavily engrossed in the need v. BAP debates over the years, it was not my intent to re-litigate that here in this thread.

I just noted it to help illustrate the larger comparative lack of defensive advocacy this offseason.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#43

(03-06-2019, 08:52 PM)pirkster Wrote: Where you destroy value is where you over-weigh need in such an imbalanced way that you end up reaching for an inferior (incomparable true value) player solely because you feel you "have to have" a player from a particular position.

That's where you completely destroy franchises and keep them in the cellar long term.

....like taking a mediocre QB at 7?

/runs
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#44

(03-06-2019, 09:41 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(03-06-2019, 06:31 PM)Deacon Wrote: Despite the extended absence, a witty, well thought out post by a man who can hardly be described with words alone.

That is a great book.

To be clear, though I have been heavily engrossed in the need v. BAP debates over the years, it was not my intent to re-litigate that here in this thread.

I just noted it to help illustrate the larger comparative lack of defensive advocacy this offseason.

To be fair to you Bullseye, I highjacked your post in order to discuss the book. But, in my defense, I felt like the two points went together very well. Every team has needs, and if you simply ignore them then they will be your downfall. But to overreact to your needs is when teams get into trouble. At least, in my opinion.
I'm trying to make myself more informed and less opinionated.

Stop saying whatever stupid thing you're talking about and pay attention to all the interesting things I have to say!
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#45

(03-06-2019, 09:41 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(03-06-2019, 06:31 PM)Deacon Wrote: Along the lines of BAP vs. Need, I read the book War Room by Michael Holley. It goes through Bill Belichik's mental image on how a football organization was shaped and how it communicated with itself. This post may get a bit wordy, but I think there are some very good "eye-opening" aspects to the book that really changed how I thought about the draft.

One of the major issues that Belichik tackled while with Cleveland and then in New England was that the Coaching Staff, the Pro Personnel department and the Scouting department all used different terminologies when they rated a player. The details here aren't....

Belichik, through much struggle, finally got everyone onto the same page in terms of language and then pushed the idea of "who is out there that can come in and help us?" Essentially, placing Need at the forefront of the process but making sure that Value, read as Best Available, was in the discussion. Due to this, rating a player in relation to the draft went away. They would actually be surprised when they would hear teams rate players in terms of Draft Round. This simplified both their Free Agency and Draft approach down to a statement of 'this player can come in and help us' or 'this player cannot help us'.

Thoughts?

That is a great book.

To be clear, though I have been heavily engrossed in the need v. BAP debates over the years, it was not my intent to re-litigate that here in this thread.

I just noted it to help illustrate the larger comparative lack of defensive advocacy this offseason.

Depending on what happens in free agency, it wouldn’t shock me if the first four selections made by the Jags were all offensive players. And it does seem to be a fairly universal outlook.
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#46
(This post was last modified: 03-10-2019, 01:14 PM by Bullseye.)

(03-07-2019, 05:05 PM)Deacon Wrote:
(03-06-2019, 09:41 PM)Bullseye Wrote: That is a great book.

To be clear, though I have been heavily engrossed in the need v. BAP debates over the years, it was not my intent to re-litigate that here in this thread.

I just noted it to help illustrate the larger comparative lack of defensive advocacy this offseason.

To be fair to you Bullseye, I highjacked your post in order to discuss the book. But, in my defense, I felt like the two points went together very well. Every team has needs, and if you simply ignore them then they will be your downfall. But to overreact to your needs is when teams get into trouble. At least, in my opinion.

That was understood perfectly, and I didn't see your post as highjacking my thread at all.

The Patriots certainly know how to draft for their team, scheme and needs.  Free agency, too.

It's uncanny...the bastards!

(03-07-2019, 05:59 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(03-06-2019, 09:41 PM)Bullseye Wrote: That is a great book.

To be clear, though I have been heavily engrossed in the need v. BAP debates over the years, it was not my intent to re-litigate that here in this thread.

I just noted it to help illustrate the larger comparative lack of defensive advocacy this offseason.

Depending on what happens in free agency, it wouldn’t shock me if the first four selections made by the Jags were all offensive players. And it does seem to be a fairly universal outlook.

So indulge me in some hypotheticals.

If the Jaguars just came out of free agency with Foles?  All offense in the first four picks?

What about Bridgewater? 

Foles (or Bridgewater) + a Ju'Wann James?

Foles + Golden Tate?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#47

(03-10-2019, 01:11 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(03-07-2019, 05:05 PM)Deacon Wrote: To be fair to you Bullseye, I highjacked your post in order to discuss the book. But, in my defense, I felt like the two points went together very well. Every team has needs, and if you simply ignore them then they will be your downfall. But to overreact to your needs is when teams get into trouble. At least, in my opinion.

That was understood perfectly, and I didn't see your post as highjacking my thread at all.

The Patriots certainly know how to draft for their team, scheme and needs.  Free agency, too.

It's uncanny...the bastards!

(03-07-2019, 05:59 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: Depending on what happens in free agency, it wouldn’t shock me if the first four selections made by the Jags were all offensive players. And it does seem to be a fairly universal outlook.

So indulge me in some hypotheticals.

If the Jaguars just came out of free agency with Foles?  All offense in the first four picks?

What about Bridgewater? 

Foles (or Bridgewater) + a Ju'Wann James?

Foles + Golden Tate?

Well, now that they’ve released Gipson, I see a bit more chance they may target a rangy FS if they see Harrison as a SS. 

I think the Foles signing would sort of mandate they find TE and OL early at the very least - plus a WR and C.o.p. RB in which ever round they see value.
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#48

I think draft philosophy is basically irrelevant. BAP vs need, I dont think it matters. If you cant scout well both methods will fail. If you can scout well, you need to use common sense. Bypassing a player at a position of dire need because his "value" is slightly lower than a player at a position you are stacked at doesnt make sense. Taking significantly less value because of need equally makes no sense. Scout well and use common sense.


________________________________________________
Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.
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#49

(03-10-2019, 09:51 PM)rfc17 Wrote: I think draft philosophy is basically irrelevant.  BAP vs need, I dont think it matters.  If you cant scout well both methods will fail.  If you can scout well, you need to use common sense.  Bypassing a player at a position of dire need because his "value" is slightly lower than a player at a position you are stacked at doesnt make sense. Taking significantly less value because of need equally makes no sense.  Scout well and use common sense.

^^ !!
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#50

I'm a BAP guy. Problem is, that determination can only truly be made in hindsight.

I've been quiet about it since I didn't really follow the college game this year, and really have no dogs in this hunt.

In 2007, Reggie Nelson was really a pretty good safety and a safe pick when we got him, but we left Joe Staley and Jon Beason on the table. Since then, I think everyone figured out that Nelson might not REALLY have been the best available player, but he contributed immediately, and it allowed us to "pass" on Brady Quinn.

In 2005, Matt Jones was a combine freak, so we reached over Heath Miller and Logan Mankins... and that Aaron Rodgers guy. We probably thought Jones was the BAP, or maybe he was what we thought was the best receiver, which we needed. Frankly, I forgot. Turns out he was neither.

If you have a "can't miss" prospect, that projects far above the position of need, take him even if you have pro-bowlers at the position. Top ten might be a bit high for special teamers, safeties, and most running backs, though. So what the hell, go BAP.

As for Belicheck's rules, he drafts at an advantage because he never needs a QB and doesn't have to worry about blowing a top 10 pick. He drafts big guys for the lines, picks up good route running WRs in free agency, and always finds overachievers in later rounds. Yes, this too is difficult, but not nearly as hard as having to decide whether or not to fish or cut bait with signal callers every year, and draft accordingly.
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#51

(03-11-2019, 03:16 PM)anonymous2112 Wrote: I'm a BAP guy.  Problem is, that determination can only truly be made in hindsight.

I've been quiet about it since I didn't really follow the college game this year, and really have no dogs in this hunt.

In 2007, Reggie Nelson was really a pretty good safety and a safe pick when we got him, but we left Joe Staley and Jon Beason on the table.  Since then, I think everyone figured out that Nelson might not REALLY have been the best available player, but he contributed immediately, and it allowed us to "pass" on Brady Quinn.

In 2005, Matt Jones was a combine freak, so we reached over Heath Miller and Logan Mankins... and that Aaron Rodgers guy.  We probably thought Jones was the BAP, or maybe he was what we thought was the best receiver, which we needed.  Frankly, I forgot.  Turns out he was neither.

If you have a "can't miss" prospect, that projects far above the position of need, take him even if you have pro-bowlers at the position.  Top ten might be a bit high for special teamers, safeties, and most running backs, though.  So what the hell, go BAP.

As for Belicheck's rules, he drafts at an advantage because he never needs a QB and doesn't have to worry about blowing a top 10 pick.  He drafts big guys for the lines, picks up good route running WRs in free agency, and always finds overachievers in later rounds.  Yes, this too is difficult, but not nearly as hard as having to decide whether or not to fish or cut bait with signal callers every year, and draft accordingly.
I mean.... Is Belicheck actually a good drafter? He has 1 player left from his 2016 class, 8 career start from the 2017 class, 1 player left from the 15 class and 1 player left from the 14 class.

Seems to me Belicheck is very much like the rest of the NFL when it comes to drafting or he may actually be worse. But when you have Brady, you get the ultimate pass.
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#52

(03-07-2019, 09:19 AM)Mikey Wrote:
(03-06-2019, 08:52 PM)pirkster Wrote: Where you destroy value is where you over-weigh need in such an imbalanced way that you end up reaching for an inferior (incomparable true value) player solely because you feel you "have to have" a player from a particular position.

That's where you completely destroy franchises and keep them in the cellar long term.

....like taking a mediocre QB at 7?

/runs

Don't run, you nailed it.

In 2014 the begging was for Bridgewater instead of Bortles.

In 2013 it was even worse... clamoring for Geno Smith for a #2 overall.

Neither was a value at the pick, and neither would have put us in any better position (worse, considering we'd have to have bailed and gone FA route even sooner than now.)

Never fall in love or take the blind "if he's your guy, he's your guy" nonsense.

Grade the pick.  Take what fits your selection.  If you need to, move up/down to match value accordingly if you can.
"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."
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