The worst case for us would probably be a top of eight of Burrow and Tagovailoa, along with Young, two OTs, plus Brown, Okudah and Simmons.

That probably leave us looking at Kinlaw or one of the remaining "top tier" of OTs. Or a WR.



It all hangs on the OTs and QBs

I think we're expecting Burrow and Tagovailoa to go in the top eight, but a team trading up for Herbert of Love would help us (although I'm thinking this is unless the Chargers start showing an interest and someone wants to get ahead of them.

Then it's down to the Giants, Cardinals and possibly the Chargers and Lions.  I think I'm expecting at least one and probably two of them to go OT.  It starts to get interesting if another team joins the party.

Anything with Kinlaw available at 9 isnt really a worst case imo.

I totally agree.  That would be the most talented player who plays the position that is our biggest need.  Perfect.

---

So worst case for you would be Kinlaw going in the top eight and another of those four OTs falling to us?  Less likely I think, but possible.

But the point is that there will be someone good at nine, but there could be someone great if we get lucky.

Worst case for me would be in no order

Burrow
Young
Simmons
Brown
Kinlaw
Okudah
Wirfs
Becton
And not getting a good trade offer from any team to trade back

Hard to believe no one would take Tua in the top 8, AND, no one would want to trade up to 9 to get him.  In that case, I might just say, screw it, let's take him.

---

Yeah even in any of the worst case scenarios I don't think only 1 QB top 10 is a possibility

---

So worst case for you would be Kinlaw going in the top eight and another of those four OTs falling to us?  Less likely I think, but possible.

But the point is that there will be someone good at nine, but there could be someone great if we get lucky.

Worst case for me would be in no order

Burrow
Young
Simmons
Brown
Kinlaw
Okudah
Wirfs
Becton
And not getting a good trade offer from any team to trade back

Not impossible, but only likely to happen if there are fresh concerns about Tua's health.

---

Anything with Kinlaw available at 9 isnt really a worst case imo.

I totally agree.  That would be the most talented player who plays the position that is our biggest need.  Perfect.

---

Worst case for me would be in no order

Burrow
Young
Simmons
Brown
Kinlaw
Okudah
Wirfs
Becton
And not getting a good trade offer from any team to trade back

Hard to believe no one would take Tua in the top 8, AND, no one would want to trade up to 9 to get him.  In that case, I might just say, screw it, let's take him.

Oh I agree, I think Tua goes top 5.  But this is worst case scenario.  I also dont dont want Tua, I think Minshew did about as good as you could ask from a rookie QB behind this online and TE group.  I think Tua will be in for a rude awakening when he doesn't have a top oline and the best WR corps in the league like he had at Alabama.  Tua isnt good when pressured and his WRs wont be running wide open consistently.   He had one of if not the best RB, WR, and onlines in college.  I think Minshew earned the right to at least give him a full training camp and build around him this season to see what he can do with Gruden.

---

Yeah even in any of the worst case scenarios I don't think only 1 QB top 10 is a possibility

If one of the olineman or Kinlaw is are there at 14 or 15, what do you think it would cost to move up about 5 or 6 spots from 20?  A 3rd or 2 4ths?

---

Yeah even in any of the worst case scenarios I don't think only 1 QB top 10 is a possibility

If one of the olineman or Kinlaw is are there at 14 or 15, what do you think it would cost to move up about 5 or 6 spots from 20?  A 3rd or 2 4ths?

Hmmm that sounds about right. The Steelers traded a 2019 2nd + 2020 3rd + their #20 pick for the Broncos #10

Depending on what we do with Yannick we could easily flip a 2021 3rd and a 2020 3rd to move up in that range I'd say

---

So worst case for you would be Kinlaw going in the top eight and another of those four OTs falling to us?  Less likely I think, but possible.

But the point is that there will be someone good at nine, but there could be someone great if we get lucky.

Worst case for me would be in no order

Burrow
Young
Simmons
Brown
Kinlaw
Okudah
Wirfs
Becton
And not getting a good trade offer from any team to trade back

Thomas, Jeudy, Wills, Lamb, or Tua are our only options there...

Yeah... None of those excite me... though I think I'd have to lean toward pairing Jeudy up with Chark?
I know some people are high on Wills as an OT prospect, and I probably wouldn't be mad at Wills or Thomas there.... moving Robinson to G probably.

I would think perhaps we'd have some trade partners at that point though, depending on how the FA QB market goes. Tua and Love and Herbert all still available?
IDK if I can see only one QB going top ten

---

Worst case for me would be in no order

Burrow
Young
Simmons
Brown
Kinlaw
Okudah
Wirfs
Becton
And not getting a good trade offer from any team to trade back

Thomas, Jeudy, Wills, Lamb, or Tua are our only options there...

I have been thinking about how we could potentially maximize our draft position in the first round to come away with two 'elite' players....

I'm using that term 'elite' a bit liberally, but, according to most draft boards, there are maybe 15 or so players who are in that top tier in this draft:

12 Non-QBs
Young
Simmons
Okudah
Brown
Kinlaw
Wirfs
Thomas
Wills
Becton
Jeudy
Lamb
Ruggs

3 QBs
Burrow
Tua
Herbert

This draft would be a massive success if the Jags could somehow get one of those top players at 20, but it's kind of unlikely. Possible, but unlikely.

My suggestion is that when the draft reaches our pick at 9, unless there is a clear guy like Okudah available, we look to trade back to somewhere around pick 13/14/15... We still get a pick of one of those top tier of players and get extra capital too. Then, we immediately trade up from 20 to the next pick after our first one, and take a second player from that top tier. We would end up picking like 14th and 15th, instead of 9th and 20th. Ultimately, we could get two top players without having to actually lose any additional draft capital.

For example we could end up with a Lamb / Wills combo, or Kinlaw / Wirfs... etc, etc. Sure would be nice.

Anyway, I realize my ideas don't mean squat, and that it would take a lot of moving pieces to fall into place, but this is something I would be keeping in mind if I was Caldwell.

---

Thomas, Jeudy, Wills, Lamb, or Tua are our only options there...

I have been thinking about how we could potentially maximize our draft position in the first round to come away with two 'elite' players....

I'm using that term 'elite' a bit liberally, but, according to most draft boards, there are maybe 15 or so players who are in that top tier in this draft:

12 Non-QBs
Young
Simmons
Okudah
Brown
Kinlaw
Wirfs
Thomas
Wills
Becton
Jeudy
Lamb
Ruggs

3 QBs
Burrow
Tua
Herbert

This draft would be a massive success if the Jags could somehow get one of those top players at 20, but it's kind of unlikely. Possible, but unlikely.

Only possibility I really see is one of Okudah/Simmons at 9 and then Kinlaw falling to 20.

I think 5 of Love/Queen/Murray/Chaisson/McKinney/Jefferson/Henderson and 1 of the RBs could go before 20 letting Kinlaw fall.

---

Thomas, Jeudy, Wills, Lamb, or Tua are our only options there...

I have been thinking about how we could potentially maximize our draft position in the first round to come away with two 'elite' players....

I'm using that term 'elite' a bit liberally, but, according to most draft boards, there are maybe 15 or so players who are in that top tier in this draft:

12 Non-QBs
Young
Simmons
Okudah
Brown
Kinlaw
Wirfs
Thomas
Wills
Becton
Jeudy
Lamb
Ruggs

3 QBs
Burrow
Tua
Herbert

This draft would be a massive success if the Jags could somehow get one of those top players at 20, but it's kind of unlikely. Possible, but unlikely.

My suggestion is that when the draft reaches our pick at 9, unless there is a clear guy like Okudah available, we look to trade back to somewhere around pick 13/14/15... We still get a pick of one of those top tier of players and get extra capital too. Then, we immediately trade up from 20 to the next pick after our first one, and take a second player from that top tier. We would end up picking like 14th and 15th, instead of 9th and 20th. Ultimately, we could get two top players without having to actually lose any additional draft capital.

For example we could end up with a Lamb / Wills combo, or Kinlaw / Wirfs... etc, etc. Sure would be nice.

Anyway, I realize my ideas don't mean squat, and that it would take a lot of moving pieces to fall into place, but this is something I would be keeping in mind if I was Caldwell.

If Simmons, Okudah and Brown are gone, I would like this idea. I still believe it's 50-50 that one of these will fall due to the fact that quarterback-needy teams do not hesitate to reach for someone at this position. Even if they get one of these 3 elite players with pick 9, they could still trade up  no more than 5 spots to get a quality offensive lineman. As was stated earlier, this might cost a 3rd rounder or possibly a 4th and 5th depending on how far up they move. In my book, Wirfs, Thomas, Wills and Becton would all be worthy of this pick. If the price is too high to move up, forget about the trade and take the BAP at 20. Nothing wrong with getting Jefferson to pair with Chark and then taking an offensive lineman in rounds 2 or 3.

---

My worst case scenario would be Wirfs, Simmons, and Okudah being off the board.

---

My worst case scenario would be Wirfs, Simmons, and Okudah being off the board.

Then it's possible that your worst case scenario could coincide with my best case scenario, because my best case scenario is to have either Brown or Kinlaw still on the board.

---

My worst case scenario would be Wirfs, Simmons, and Okudah being off the board.

This is very possible

But having a choice between Brown and Kinlaw seems like a good problem to me.

I think trading back into the mid teens and having say 15 and 20 plus extra 2nd rounders would be great in this draft that is fairly deep at CB and WR and also has some solid interior OL talent likely available in rounds 2 and 3

---

My worst case scenario would be Wirfs, Simmons, and Okudah being off the board.

Then it's possible that your worst case scenario could coincide with my best case scenario, because my best case scenario is to have either Brown or Kinlaw still on the board.

I won't link that PFF Steve video for you then lol.

---

Then it's possible that your worst case scenario could coincide with my best case scenario, because my best case scenario is to have either Brown or Kinlaw still on the board.

I won't link that PFF Steve video for you then lol.

PFF have had some truly horrendous takes the past two weeks. Its a shame as the two main draft guys usually do a decent job , hurts their credibility of evaluating players

---

I won't link that PFF Steve video for you then lol.

PFF have had some truly horrendous takes the past two weeks. Its a shame as the two main draft guys usually do a decent job , hurts their credibility of evaluating players

Part of me agrees with them about DT in the first... Maybe. 

I'd just prefer us to invest moderate dollar into the position in FA and solve it with a proven option like Snacks Harrison. 

At the same time, if either Brown or Kinlaw are truly disruptive DTs who can effect all phases of the game, then yeah, PFF have massively missed the mark.

---

From TDN today:

DERRICK BROWN, DL, AUBURN
NFL comparison: D.J. Reader

It’s weird for a best-case comparison like this to be construed as a negative, but here we are. D.J. Reader, a massively underrated nose tackle who is about to cash in on the open market, is arguably the top run-stuffer in the league. He’s able to push the pocket and get to the quarterback. He’s also a more impactful pass-rusher than the majority of 0-techniques.

However, he’s still a nose tackle and one that simply doesn’t impact the game much because of the position he plays. It’s fairly easy to find defenders who can routinely clog the middle, even if a rare few can do it as well as Reader. Derrick Brown, despite his completely dominant film, is the same way. After displaying average athleticism at the combine, I don’t see the type of elite pass-rush upside he needs to warrant a high draft selection, which makes him a reach as a top-10 pick. Anywhere outside of that range continues to be tremendous value for Brown, but his price tag is something teams must be very cautious about.

---

From TDN today:

DERRICK BROWN, DL, AUBURN
NFL comparison: D.J. Reader

It’s weird for a best-case comparison like this to be construed as a negative, but here we are. D.J. Reader, a massively underrated nose tackle who is about to cash in on the open market, is arguably the top run-stuffer in the league. He’s able to push the pocket and get to the quarterback. He’s also a more impactful pass-rusher than the majority of 0-techniques.

However, he’s still a nose tackle and one that simply doesn’t impact the game much because of the position he plays. It’s fairly easy to find defenders who can routinely clog the middle, even if a rare few can do it as well as Reader. Derrick Brown, despite his completely dominant film, is the same way. After displaying average athleticism at the combine, I don’t see the type of elite pass-rush upside he needs to warrant a high draft selection, which makes him a reach as a top-10 pick. Anywhere outside of that range continues to be tremendous value for Brown, but his price tag is something teams must be very cautious about.

They don't see him as a top-10 pick but outside of the top-10, he's a "tremendous value?"  So he'd be a reach at 9, but a tremendous value at 11?

---

From TDN today:

DERRICK BROWN, DL, AUBURN
NFL comparison: D.J. Reader

It’s weird for a best-case comparison like this to be construed as a negative, but here we are. D.J. Reader, a massively underrated nose tackle who is about to cash in on the open market, is arguably the top run-stuffer in the league. He’s able to push the pocket and get to the quarterback. He’s also a more impactful pass-rusher than the majority of 0-techniques.

However, he’s still a nose tackle and one that simply doesn’t impact the game much because of the position he plays. It’s fairly easy to find defenders who can routinely clog the middle, even if a rare few can do it as well as Reader. Derrick Brown, despite his completely dominant film, is the same way. After displaying average athleticism at the combine, I don’t see the type of elite pass-rush upside he needs to warrant a high draft selection, which makes him a reach as a top-10 pick. Anywhere outside of that range continues to be tremendous value for Brown, but his price tag is something teams must be very cautious about.

The person that wrote this clearly hasn't witnessed the dynamic we Jags fan painfully endured when Marcell Dareus was lost to injury. 

If you can't stop the run, you're screwed.  You will not consistently stop the run without a quality nose tackle. (especially if your linebackers are sub par or banged up)

Also - I don't think Brown's combine showing is definitive of his upside as a pass rusher. He may not be Aaron Donald in the middle vs the pass, but he can be plenty disruptive.

---

There were people poking holes in Brown's pass rush ability even before the combine. I think if you're pessimistic on him he is Reader who is obviously quite good but not worth a top 10 pick, and if you're optimistic he is Linval Joseph who had multiple seasons of top 10 pick level play.

In general I think he would be a fine pick at 9 but he won't be BAP. Okudah, Simmons, any of the top 4 maybe 5 tackles would be better, Jeudy or Lamb, and I think there's a good chance I'd rather have Kinlaw or Henderson too. He's probably like 12-15 on my board.

---