Under normal circumstances, I don't think a team should spend a high draft pick on a QB in two straight years.  Reason being, I don't think you can tell if you have "the guy" until at least the middle of year 2.  And during that time, you need to give him as many practice reps as possible, and he needs to start.   Drafting a starting QB in back to back drafts handicaps both of them, because they would both have to be developed and evaluated, and there aren't enough practices for both of them and they can't both start regular season games.  When we draft a QB to start, you have to focus all your resources on that guy.  

In the case of the Jags, Minshew was arguably the best rookie QB last year.  That's why I would put our focus on him this year, and not draft another starter.  If he doesn't work out this year, look for a new one next year.   We have to be a little bit disciplined about this.   This isn't the last time we'll be able to draft a QB.  There will be more candidates next year.

(Emphasis added)


Though in my original post, I discuss taking QB early this year and possibly next year, in the most immediate context, I'm talking about this year.  Remember, we don't know how the draft position think will pan out next year.  Even if Trevor Lawrence and J. Fields have great years, declare themselves draft eligible, and are the top two signal callers, we don't know whether we'll be in position to draft either of them with or without having to trade up to get them.  This leaves us with this year.  As of this year, we haven't taken a QB high in the past two seasons. 

You continue with the imminently fair observation that it can take a while to know what you have in a player at that position.  But if Minshew is still an unknown (at least not fully known) quantity, why would you consider changing your draft priorities to accommodate him?  If an independent objective analysis of the available talent on the boars shows the best player is on defense, why would you draft a weapon for Minshew?  (I know exactly why and I an fairly certain those of you reading know why too, but I'd like to see the reasoning.)

But to continue on this theme, this carries into the last emphasized point.

For those of you arguing the draft's focus should be on helping Minshew, do you now assert that any pick other than a WR or LT (those positions that might be of most direct help to Minshew which appear to be worth at or near that draft spot) at 9 would be a mistake?

---

As much as i want to believe this year is a make or break year for Caldwell and Marrone, I'm doubtful in it. But with taking that in consideration, i don't think drafting a qb with a high pick makes sense this year. Give Minshew his chance. If he succeeds awesome, if he doesn't then let the new coaching staff bring in their guy.

So basically you would avoid pulling the trigger on a QB because you don't believe this current administration is fit to make that decision?

What if they happen to be accurate in their evaluation and the player they like otherwise fits at 9?  If some picks are mistakes, is every pick a mistake?

---

I feel we will draft another late round QB to compete with Dobbs. Nothing before round 6 though.

So you think that's what WILL happen.  What do you think SHOULD happen?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Just curious on what some of your takes are on this scenario:

Given our plethora of draft picks, would you guys be in favor of drafting Jalen Hurts if he was available in the 3rd round?

I am not a huge Hurts fan.  I will say that 3rd round is the ceiling under which I would draft Hurts.  That spot should also fit the narrative about expending too many high draft picks-esp. 1st round at the position.

---

Ouch.

Never want my posts to be "painful" to a non antagonistic reader.

In fairness, I gave warning it was long.

This is more on me than you.

https://youtu.be/pezCrpDlmCs

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

It’s not a stretch to suggest the prevailing paradigm amongst Jaguars fans and possibly the Jaguars’ brass is to go with Minshew as the starting QB and use at least substantial portions of our plentiful draft capital in putting blockers and weapons around him to maximize the chances of him succeeding.  I readily concede this is not an unreasonable approach to next month’s draft, one I have explored if not outright advocated at various points throughout the offseason.  As unfortunate the circumstances surrounding his insertion into the lineup were, his play exceeded all reasonable expectations for a rookie 6th round passer and the performance of many veterans, and even that of first overall pick Kyler Murray.  In a rare case of unity in this franchise, the front office, coaches and fans all seem to love him.  We owe it to him and everyone above to ensure if ;ast year’s performance were not an aberration and to see just how far he can go with an improved supporting cast.  Employing this strategy, we see what we have in Minshew.  If he succeeds, the position is finally fixed.  If he fails, we can use our draft capital next year to go after Trevor Lawrence, one of the best QB prospects to come along in years.  But I would be remiss if I did not express countervailing considerations.  I submit that certainties of the past, realities of the present, and uncertainties of the future should force this front office to strongly consider taking a signal caller in the first round this year.
 
History suggests we should not put all of our eggs in the Minshew basket just yet.  There were at least three times in team history where we put all of the team’s hopes on a young QB, eschewed the position subsequent to that, and bypassed possible Hall of fame caliber talent at the position to our detriment.  In 2003 the team drafted Byron Leftwich.  Subsequent drafts saw us do what NFL teams traditionally doo when they get a signal caller-draft weapons around him in the effort to maximize his chances to succeed.  These efforts resulted in bypass signal callers like Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 and Aaron Rodgers in 2005, The effect was exacerbated when the players drafted to bolster the weapons around him failed with the busts of Reggie Williams and matt Jones.  This pattern was repeated in Blaine Gabbert in 2011, drafting Justin Blackmon in 2012, and bypassing Russell Wilson  that same year.  The third gut punch to Jaguars nation happened when the team drafted Blake Bortles in 2014.  Even though the front office was a little more successful in putting weapons around him with the additions o Marquise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, the decision to add RB Leonard Fournette at the top of the 2017 draft led to the team bypassing QBs Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson.  The end result of those premature QB decisions resulted in watching teams like Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Kansas City ascend to win four Super Bowls and reach numerous playoffs subce 2003, while the Jaguars have not reached any Super Bowls in our history, and have only been to the playoffs three (3) times since 2000.  If there is a potential franchise QB available, we should not pass him up even if we like Minshew.
 
Currently reality also suggests we should take a QB high this year.  The overall consensus is that four (4) QBs will be drafted in the first round this year.  Joe Burrow is a virtual lock to go to Cincinnati with the first pick, while most projuect Alabama’s Tua Tagoavila and Oregon’s Justin Herbert to be top ten picks, while Untah State’s Jordan Love has been projected to go as high as 9 but mostly through the mid to late first round.  None of us have any clue as to how the Jaguars’ board is set up or will be set up by draft day, but at this point, it is not a total stretch to state the BPA on the Jaguars board may well be a QB at 9 or 20.  With Tua’s injury history, it wouldn’t be a total shock to see risk averse teams above us to pass on him.  Similarly, I know many of people who are less than enthused about Herbert, and skeptical regarding Jordan Love, which isn’t too different from 2017, when people didn’t like Mahomes and Watson.  The fact is, if Marino can fall to around 27th overall , Brady can fall to 199th overall, Rodgers could sall to approximately 24th pverall, Russell Wilson could fall to the 3rd round, and Brady to 199th overall, these guys could fall to us.  If the team has them ranked accordingly, they should not hesitate to pull the trigger on picking them.  Furthermore, we have a need at the position.  Aside Minshew, the only QB we have is Joshua Dobbs, obtained via trade from Pittsburgh after Foles was hurt.  While Dobbs is scary smart, he isn’t likely the answer to the backup QB position, much less the hall of fame long term signal caller this team needs.  Pittsburgh traded him away AFTER they lost Big Ben for the year.  It’s not as if they were loaded at the position behind Big Ben.  Neither of the current Steelers backups are very good, but were desired over Dobbs.  Finally competition at the position will make the position stronger.  A common complaint uttered during Leftwich’s tenure is that he never had to compete for the QB position.  Taking a QB high and making him and Minshew compete for playing time would let everyone on the team-including the QBs-know no position is safe, and that everyone has to perform.  That will optimize performance.  Furthermore, taking a QB early now does not necessarily defeat the idea of taking a QB high next year.  If we were to draft a QB this year and we hit on him as a franchise QB, we’d have his services one year early.  If we missed on him, we still have time to rebound.

Finally, I believe the uncertainty surrounding the future makes deferring on QB until next year a most risky proposition on any number of levels.  During normal circumstances, it’s risky because you wouldn’t know where in the draft order you would finish.  You wouldn’t know what kind of year the guy you are targeting now would have…whether his performance drops or he sustains a serious injury or develops any off field baggage.  But with the added uncertainty of the coronavirus factoring in, waiting until 2021 ccould make such a deferral a more dubious strategy.  How will the draft order be determined if the season is canceled?  Would they simply repeat this year’s draft order?  Would you be willing to expend the draft capital on players with one less season’s worth of tape and development?  Would they somehow create an order based on the average number of wins over the last 2-3 seasons?  How would the Jaguars fare in such a process?  A shortened season doesn’t add much to the certainty.  While a more jaundiced fan may think the Campbell, Bouye and Foles trades may have been calculated to reduce the win total short term over the course of a 17 game season, a shortened season –say 9 games-might not be enough  to achieve that result.  One upset win could knock this team out of range of Lawrence ore even Fields.  Alternatively, a shortened season may result in a tie where we miss out on the top pick like we did in 2013.  If it’s true the consensus of Lawrence being the best QB prospect in some time, the team with the top pick may be even less inclined than Cincinnati to trade that pick away.  That cost to acquire that pick, if it is even possible to acquire-would be more expensive for us next year than it may be to get a QB this year.  At least if we were to even trade up to get a QB this year, we’ve got two years of extra picks to use to get the QB.  Next year, we will have already spent the extra draft capital this year without having any extra picks in 2022 as an additional cushion.  Assume, arguendo, the league simply decided to keep the same draft order and Cincy remains at the top since no games have been played.   If they remained happy with Burrow and were willing to part with the top overall pick, suppose their price for moving up was 4 #1 overall picks.  Were you able to pay off that price in two years, functionally it become less expensive than it would to pay that same price over three  or four.  Think of it as spending your last $10 on something as opposed to buying the same item with your last $30.  The same item becomes more expensive because it takes a higher percentage of c your capital to acquire it.  Or perhaps more accurately, financing a loan over a shorter period of time

One more thing.  For years, my argument against following up the Leftwich pick with a pick of Roethlisberger was that NFL teams simply didn’t do things like that.  Given the uniqueness of the QB position, the need to put people around him, how expensive top ten picks were in terms of contracts, teams didn’t draft back to back first round picks on QB.  Until Arizona followed up the Josh Rosen pick with Kyler Murray last year, there had only been two teams since 1980 to spend back to back first round picks on QBs”  The 1982-83 Baltimore Colts, who spent a 1 on Art Schlichter in 1982, to spending the #1 overall the following year on John Elway.  The 1989 Cowboys spent the #1 overall pick on Troy Aikman, and thanks to the subsequent Supplemental draft later that same year, they spent a first round pick (which wound up being the #1 overall I 1990) on Steve Walsh.  There would be several differences between those situations and the Jaguars.  First, taking a QB in the first round this year would not be the same as taking back to back first round QBs.  Though Minshew played well as a rookie, he was taken in the 6th round.  Secondly, even in an extreme example of taking a first round QB this year and then taking Lawrence next year, the rookie wage scale preempts the salary cap crippling contracts that #1 overall picks used to command.  From a financial standpoint, having Minshew.  Herbert/Lawrence on the roster competing for the job becomes a far more palatable proposition now than it did then.  As evidenced from the Gabbert and Foles trades, Caldwell (assuming he is still here in 2021) has proven adept at getting trade value for QBs the team no longer wants.  But if that scenario seems farfetched, I submit it would be more desirable for this team to have that kind of surplus at QB as opposed to the opposite possibility-namely that Minshew is not the answer, but the team does not draft his replacement this year, and in 2021 the team is not in position or able to get into position to draft his replacement.

To a large degree, it is fortunate that Minshew  played well enough to cause the FO to place faith in him.  Sadly the Jaguars have missed so many times at the QB position these consideration are even an issue.  But we’ve prematurely put our eggs in a QB’s basket before and paid a heavy price. We should not possibly abandon the draft board simply  for the sake of bolstering Minshew.  Instead of adopting the policy , and for myriad reasons, there’s no guarantee the future makes it possible for us to take Lawrence next year.  Instead of lving by the axiom of “Good things come to those who wair.” Perhaps we should adopt a “There’s no time like the present” approach to QB.

Minshew's situation is unique in a sense that the team seemed to rally around him last year. The fans love him. And the outside media outlets are treating him well which is only good for our marketing. His contract situation actually makes him perfect for this team to spend the next two - three years building around him financially without tying up a large percentage of the cap space at his position. 

This year's QB class all has major concerns. Burrow's one year of major production. Herbert's inconsistencies and quietness in the locker room. Tagovailoa's durability. Fromm's lack luster arm and down year. Eason's lack of experience, knee injury history and lack of competition. Love's lack of competition and down year. I don't like this year's QB class. It reeks of 2011. You might get one really, really good QB out of this class and the rest just end up as "guys" in the NFL. 

I think you have to completely go all in with Minshew in 2020. You have to. You can get away with patching up the defense in free agency, as they've done so far this off season. I don't think they've made not one single signing on offense yet if I am not mistaken. And with the top ten talent mostly favoring the defensive side of the football and the QB position? They're primed to land a quality skill position player or lineman for this year's offense. And they will have some flexibility that same night with the 20th pick and with 10 other picks (currently, that might go up with Ngakoue's situation) they can make moves to bolster the defense in area they missed out on via free agency. 

Taking a QB seems highly unlikely for me. Marrone and Caldwell are on borrowed time. There's no way they can afford to put all of THEIR eggs in a rookie's basket in 2020. They'll ride it out with Minshew. Give him every possible weapon and upgrade they can find via the draft. They brought in Gruden and McAdoo with Marrone's staff. Everything so far along with Foles being shipped up to Chicago is pointing towards Minshew, and ONLY Minshew as the primary player to help this off season with the obvious needs on defense being somewhat addressed potentially. 

If they draft a QB. I'll be genuinely shocked. I am not against drafting a QB this year. Just not in the top 20. Seems like it would be a disservice to this team. And it would instantly put Marrone's and Caldwell's butts lower to the lava pool developing underneath them. I kicked this idea around in the college forum last wee. If they DO draft a QB. I am thinking it'll be more than likely a guy like Cole McDonald out of Hawaii, who is coming from a high passing offense and has the athletic ability to run and make plays. I wouldn't rule out a guy like Colorado's Steven Montez for the same reason as Cole McDonald.

Good argument on this year's QB class.  While I had not looked at it in those terms, your scenario regarding their long terms prospects is quite plausible, if not outright likely.

As to the part in bold, a pick from group A-

Andrew Thomas
Mekhi Becton
Tristan Wirfs
J. edrick Wills
Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb
Henry Ruggs

Is more desirable for the Jaguars than a pick from group B:

Chase Young
Jeffrey Okudah
Isaiah Simmons
Derrick Brown

Is that a fair assessment of your analysis?  I remember you saying the only person in this draft you would trade up into the top 3 for is Chase Young.  Did your mind change on that subsequent to that post I recall, or is Chase Young an exception, or is there something else I am missing?

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Minshew's situation is unique in a sense that the team seemed to rally around him last year. The fans love him. And the outside media outlets are treating him well which is only good for our marketing. His contract situation actually makes him perfect for this team to spend the next two - three years building around him financially without tying up a large percentage of the cap space at his position. 

This year's QB class all has major concerns. Burrow's one year of major production. Herbert's inconsistencies and quietness in the locker room. Tagovailoa's durability. Fromm's lack luster arm and down year. Eason's lack of experience, knee injury history and lack of competition. Love's lack of competition and down year. I don't like this year's QB class. It reeks of 2011. You might get one really, really good QB out of this class and the rest just end up as "guys" in the NFL. 

I think you have to completely go all in with Minshew in 2020. You have to. You can get away with patching up the defense in free agency, as they've done so far this off season. I don't think they've made not one single signing on offense yet if I am not mistaken. And with the top ten talent mostly favoring the defensive side of the football and the QB position? They're primed to land a quality skill position player or lineman for this year's offense. And they will have some flexibility that same night with the 20th pick and with 10 other picks (currently, that might go up with Ngakoue's situation) they can make moves to bolster the defense in area they missed out on via free agency. 

Taking a QB seems highly unlikely for me. Marrone and Caldwell are on borrowed time. There's no way they can afford to put all of THEIR eggs in a rookie's basket in 2020. They'll ride it out with Minshew. Give him every possible weapon and upgrade they can find via the draft. They brought in Gruden and McAdoo with Marrone's staff. Everything so far along with Foles being shipped up to Chicago is pointing towards Minshew, and ONLY Minshew as the primary player to help this off season with the obvious needs on defense being somewhat addressed potentially. 

If they draft a QB. I'll be genuinely shocked. I am not against drafting a QB this year. Just not in the top 20. Seems like it would be a disservice to this team. And it would instantly put Marrone's and Caldwell's butts lower to the lava pool developing underneath them. I kicked this idea around in the college forum last wee. If they DO draft a QB. I am thinking it'll be more than likely a guy like Cole McDonald out of Hawaii, who is coming from a high passing offense and has the athletic ability to run and make plays. I wouldn't rule out a guy like Colorado's Steven Montez for the same reason as Cole McDonald.

Good argument on this year's QB class.  While I had not looked at it in those terms, your scenario regarding their long terms prospects is quite plausible, if not outright likely.

As to the part in bold, a pick from group A-

Andrew Thomas
Mekhi Becton
Tristan Wirfs
J. edrick Wills
Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb
Henry Ruggs

Is more desirable for the Jaguars than a pick from group B:

Chase Young
Jeffrey Okudah
Isaiah Simmons
Derrick Brown

Is that a fair assessment of your analysis?  I remember you saying the only person in this draft you would trade up into the top 3 for is Chase Young.  Did your mind change on that subsequent to that post I recall, or is Chase Young an exception, or is there something else I am missing?

I read Caldrac's post as expecting the Jags to take an offensive player based on the free agent signings, not that that's what he wants.

Personally I'd be appalled if the Jags passed on any of those defensive players you named and picked a WR. I could be OK with taking the top-rated OT instead of Simmons, mainly because he doesn't fit neatly into an NFL defense. Trading down might be an option too, although Caldwell has never traded down in the first few rounds. I don't think he knows how.

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"Why should I give information to you when all you want to do is find something wrong with it?"

Minshew's situation is unique in a sense that the team seemed to rally around him last year. The fans love him. And the outside media outlets are treating him well which is only good for our marketing. His contract situation actually makes him perfect for this team to spend the next two - three years building around him financially without tying up a large percentage of the cap space at his position. 

This year's QB class all has major concerns. Burrow's one year of major production. Herbert's inconsistencies and quietness in the locker room. Tagovailoa's durability. Fromm's lack luster arm and down year. Eason's lack of experience, knee injury history and lack of competition. Love's lack of competition and down year. I don't like this year's QB class. It reeks of 2011. You might get one really, really good QB out of this class and the rest just end up as "guys" in the NFL. 

I think you have to completely go all in with Minshew in 2020. You have to. You can get away with patching up the defense in free agency, as they've done so far this off season. I don't think they've made not one single signing on offense yet if I am not mistaken. And with the top ten talent mostly favoring the defensive side of the football and the QB position? They're primed to land a quality skill position player or lineman for this year's offense. And they will have some flexibility that same night with the 20th pick and with 10 other picks (currently, that might go up with Ngakoue's situation) they can make moves to bolster the defense in area they missed out on via free agency. 

Taking a QB seems highly unlikely for me. Marrone and Caldwell are on borrowed time. There's no way they can afford to put all of THEIR eggs in a rookie's basket in 2020. They'll ride it out with Minshew. Give him every possible weapon and upgrade they can find via the draft. They brought in Gruden and McAdoo with Marrone's staff. Everything so far along with Foles being shipped up to Chicago is pointing towards Minshew, and ONLY Minshew as the primary player to help this off season with the obvious needs on defense being somewhat addressed potentially. 

If they draft a QB. I'll be genuinely shocked. I am not against drafting a QB this year. Just not in the top 20. Seems like it would be a disservice to this team. And it would instantly put Marrone's and Caldwell's butts lower to the lava pool developing underneath them. I kicked this idea around in the college forum last wee. If they DO draft a QB. I am thinking it'll be more than likely a guy like Cole McDonald out of Hawaii, who is coming from a high passing offense and has the athletic ability to run and make plays. I wouldn't rule out a guy like Colorado's Steven Montez for the same reason as Cole McDonald.

Good argument on this year's QB class.  While I had not looked at it in those terms, your scenario regarding their long terms prospects is quite plausible, if not outright likely.

As to the part in bold, a pick from group A-

Andrew Thomas
Mekhi Becton
Tristan Wirfs
J. edrick Wills
Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb
Henry Ruggs

Is more desirable for the Jaguars than a pick from group B:

Chase Young
Jeffrey Okudah
Isaiah Simmons
Derrick Brown

Is that a fair assessment of your analysis?  I remember you saying the only person in this draft you would trade up into the top 3 for is Chase Young.  Did your mind change on that subsequent to that post I recall, or is Chase Young an exception, or is there something else I am missing?

My thoughts with the first eight picks in the draft is that realistically there's a good chance you're not going to see Chase Young, Jeffrey Okudah nor Isaiah Simmons slip to us with the 9th overall pick. I like Derrick Brown. And he may or may not be there. It would be hard for me. I like Andrew Thomas at LT. But I think he's a better run blocker than pass blocker, and this is from watching a lot of Georgia games. He's rated highly in pass protection because they rarely pass the damn football. I don't really know how well he'll hold up in pass protection at this level. 

Wirfs is a freak of nature. Becton is too. But he seems more raw. Wills is another freak of nature but him and Wirfs BOTH have not had much experience at LT. That concerns me with our team's current situation. I like any one of those receivers there though. Jeudy, Lamb and Ruggs. I think you're getting an excellent compliment to Chark. BUT. . . I really like Jefferson as a slot receiver at the next level. And you could possibly get him at 20 later on that night. 

Young is a no brainer at 9. Okudah is a no brainer at 9. Simmons is a no brainer at 9. Derrick Brown? I don't know. I like Kinlaw a little bit more in the pass rushing department. And I think later on between Neville Gallimore, McTelvin Agim, Khalil Davis & Jordan Elliot that we can get a pretty good DL3T. And I like Leki Fotu and Benito Jones as DL1T. 

So. . . tough call. But, if for whatever odd reason that Young, Okudah or Simmons slip to us at 9? I am running up to the podium with their names on the card. Just like last year where we all really, really, really WANTED Hockenson at TE. But Josh Allen at DE was just too damn good to pass up on. That was a gift. You can't mess that up.

As of now. Based on how I *think" the first eight picks are going to play out. My choices would be:

1. One of the top three overall defensive players magically fell for the taking between Young, Okudah & Simmons
2. Best WR on your draft board is selected between Jeudy, Lamb & Ruggs
3. Trade down a little bit and see if you can still gain Kinlaw at DT, Ruggs or Lamb at WR or Becton at LT

That's my ideal scenario right now.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

Maybe they can buy low on Dalton, Winston or Cam as a backup plan once no one else touches them.

---

"I am only an average man, but by George, I work harder at it than the average man." - Teddy Roosevelt

Just curious on what some of your takes are on this scenario:

Given our plethora of draft picks, would you guys be in favor of drafting Jalen Hurts if he was available in the 3rd round?

Absolutely.  This year's Russell Wilson, and I think a team will recognize that before the 3rd.

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Just curious on what some of your takes are on this scenario:

Given our plethora of draft picks, would you guys be in favor of drafting Jalen Hurts if he was available in the 3rd round?

Absolutely.  This year's Russell Wilson, and I think a team will recognize that before the 3rd.

If anything Tua is Russell Wilson like.

---

Good argument on this year's QB class.  While I had not looked at it in those terms, your scenario regarding their long terms prospects is quite plausible, if not outright likely.

As to the part in bold, a pick from group A-

Andrew Thomas
Mekhi Becton
Tristan Wirfs
J. edrick Wills
Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb
Henry Ruggs

Is more desirable for the Jaguars than a pick from group B:

Chase Young
Jeffrey Okudah
Isaiah Simmons
Derrick Brown

Is that a fair assessment of your analysis?  I remember you saying the only person in this draft you would trade up into the top 3 for is Chase Young.  Did your mind change on that subsequent to that post I recall, or is Chase Young an exception, or is there something else I am missing?

My thoughts with the first eight picks in the draft is that realistically there's a good chance you're not going to see Chase Young, Jeffrey Okudah nor Isaiah Simmons slip to us with the 9th overall pick. I like Derrick Brown. And he may or may not be there. It would be hard for me. I like Andrew Thomas at LT. But I think he's a better run blocker than pass blocker, and this is from watching a lot of Georgia games. He's rated highly in pass protection because they rarely pass the damn football. I don't really know how well he'll hold up in pass protection at this level. 

Wirfs is a freak of nature. Becton is too. But he seems more raw. Wills is another freak of nature but him and Wirfs BOTH have not had much experience at LT. That concerns me with our team's current situation. I like any one of those receivers there though. Jeudy, Lamb and Ruggs. I think you're getting an excellent compliment to Chark. BUT. . . I really like Jefferson as a slot receiver at the next level. And you could possibly get him at 20 later on that night. 

Young is a no brainer at 9. Okudah is a no brainer at 9. Simmons is a no brainer at 9. Derrick Brown? I don't know. I like Kinlaw a little bit more in the pass rushing department. And I think later on between Neville Gallimore, McTelvin Agim, Khalil Davis & Jordan Elliot that we can get a pretty good DL3T. And I like Leki Fotu and Benito Jones as DL1T. 

So. . . tough call. But, if for whatever odd reason that Young, Okudah or Simmons slip to us at 9? I am running up to the podium with their names on the card. Just like last year where we all really, really, really WANTED Hockenson at TE. But Josh Allen at DE was just too damn good to pass up on. That was a gift. You can't mess that up.

As of now. Based on how I *think" the first eight picks are going to play out. My choices would be:

1. One of the top three overall defensive players magically fell for the taking between Young, Okudah & Simmons
2. Best WR on your draft board is selected between Jeudy, Lamb & Ruggs
3. Trade down a little bit and see if you can still gain Kinlaw at DT, Ruggs or Lamb at WR or Becton at LT

That's my ideal scenario right now.

So now, my question is how does taking Young, Okudah, Simmons or Brown (for that matter) at 9 directly help Minshew?  Would it be possible to help Minshew directly with picks after a defensive player at 9?  So what's the difference between taking a defensive player at 9 and a QB at 9 if the team thought there was a franchise QB at 9?

---

Good argument on this year's QB class.  While I had not looked at it in those terms, your scenario regarding their long terms prospects is quite plausible, if not outright likely.

As to the part in bold, a pick from group A-

Andrew Thomas
Mekhi Becton
Tristan Wirfs
J. edrick Wills
Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb
Henry Ruggs

Is more desirable for the Jaguars than a pick from group B:

Chase Young
Jeffrey Okudah
Isaiah Simmons
Derrick Brown

Is that a fair assessment of your analysis?  I remember you saying the only person in this draft you would trade up into the top 3 for is Chase Young.  Did your mind change on that subsequent to that post I recall, or is Chase Young an exception, or is there something else I am missing?

I read Caldrac's post as expecting the Jags to take an offensive player based on the free agent signings, not that that's what he wants.

Personally I'd be appalled if the Jags passed on any of those defensive players you named and picked a WR. I could be OK with taking the top-rated OT instead of Simmons, mainly because he doesn't fit neatly into an NFL defense. Trading down might be an option too, although Caldwell has never traded down in the first few rounds. I don't think he knows how.

(emphasis added)

Same questions to you I posed to Caldrac,

If the primary goal is giving Minshew weapons, how does taking one of those defensive players at 9 accomplish that goal?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Under normal circumstances, I don't think a team should spend a high draft pick on a QB in two straight years.  Reason being, I don't think you can tell if you have "the guy" until at least the middle of year 2.  And during that time, you need to give him as many practice reps as possible, and he needs to start.   Drafting a starting QB in back to back drafts handicaps both of them, because they would both have to be developed and evaluated, and there aren't enough practices for both of them and they can't both start regular season games.  When we draft a QB to start, you have to focus all your resources on that guy.  

In the case of the Jags, Minshew was arguably the best rookie QB last year.  That's why I would put our focus on him this year, and not draft another starter.  If he doesn't work out this year, look for a new one next year.   We have to be a little bit disciplined about this.   This isn't the last time we'll be able to draft a QB.  There will be more candidates next year.

(Emphasis added)


Though in my original post, I discuss taking QB early this year and possibly next year, in the most immediate context, I'm talking about this year.  Remember, we don't know how the draft position think will pan out next year.  Even if Trevor Lawrence and J. Fields have great years, declare themselves draft eligible, and are the top two signal callers, we don't know whether we'll be in position to draft either of them with or without having to trade up to get them.  This leaves us with this year.  As of this year, we haven't taken a QB high in the past two seasons. 


You continue with the imminently fair observation that it can take a while to know what you have in a player at that position.  But if Minshew is still an unknown (at least not fully known) quantity, why would you consider changing your draft priorities to accommodate him?  If an independent objective analysis of the available talent on the boars shows the best player is on defense, why would you draft a weapon for Minshew?  (I know exactly why and I an fairly certain those of you reading know why too, but I'd like to see the reasoning.)

But to continue on this theme, this carries into the last emphasized point.

For those of you arguing the draft's focus should be on helping Minshew, do you now assert that any pick other than a WR or LT (those positions that might be of most direct help to Minshew which appear to be worth at or near that draft spot) at 9 would be a mistake?

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Okay, you've raised several points, so here is my response.  

Talking about this year- I know we didn't spend a high draft pick on Minshew, but from where we are now, with him arguably being one of the best, if not the best, rookie QB of 2019, we're in the same position as if we had spent a high draft pick on a QB, in fact we're in a better position, because added to that is the fact that it looks like the pick might work out and we might have a QB who was actually worthy of a high draft pick.  So it's as if we exercised a high draft pick on a QB AND the player panned out for us, which is not a given for any highly drafted QB.  A lot of them bust.  

Minshew did as well as the #1 overall pick and offensive rookie of the year, Kyler Murray.  So we might as well assume that we spent a top five pick on Minshew and he was worth it.  So, since we are now in the position we would have been in if we had spent a top 5 pick on Minshew and he had panned out as worth it, why in the world would we do it again a year later? 

Your next point- if the best player available on the board when it's our turn to pick is a defensive player, why would we draft a weapon for Minshew instead?  I don't think I ever said I would.  I would do what's best for the team.  I'm sure we'll pick players on both sides of the ball.  

But here's an important point- if we package the 9th and 20th picks to move up to, for example, 5th, and pick, for example, Tua, we would be giving up the 9th and 20th picks.  I don't think it would be wise to give up, say, Derrick Brown and Krystian Fulton, or, say, the best LT and a really good WR, in order to "give Minshew competition."  I don't think our priority should be giving our starting QB some competition.  I think our priority should be to build our team while we see if last year's arguably best rookie QB can continue to develop.

Your posted opinion seems to be based on the assumption that this is our last best opportunity to get a QB in the draft.  That is obviously not the case.  This is not the kind of team that will go 8-8 if Minshew fails.  We're not that good.  If Minshew fails, we could be 4-12.  And add the Rams' pick (and that 2021 pick will most likely be a lot better than this year's 20th overall pick), and we have plenty of ammo to move up and get a QB in 2021.  If Minshew fails, we could wind up with the 5th and 12th picks in the draft.  If Minshew fails, we would probably be in a better draft position next year than we are this year.  If Minshew fails, we'll not only have better picks to use next year, we'll also have a better team to put around the next guy.

So, the two hypotheticals - that Minshew fails AND we lose our chance to get a QB - those are incompatible events.

I wonder if you and some others are suffering from what could be called "6th round bias."  If we had drafted him 5th overall last year, and he had had the exact same season as the one he had, would you still be wanting to draft another one this year?  

For me, I'm not saying Minshew is definitely the guy, but as long as there is a chance that we have our guy, we should not waste valuable draft picks on another one who could just as easily bust.  Minshew is much more of a known quantity than any prospect in the draft this year other than Joe Burrow, and we can't get Joe Burrow.  

So all the above is why I say no to using a high pick on a QB this year.  If you think last year's rookie has a chance of being the guy, then you build the team while you find out.

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My thoughts with the first eight picks in the draft is that realistically there's a good chance you're not going to see Chase Young, Jeffrey Okudah nor Isaiah Simmons slip to us with the 9th overall pick. I like Derrick Brown. And he may or may not be there. It would be hard for me. I like Andrew Thomas at LT. But I think he's a better run blocker than pass blocker, and this is from watching a lot of Georgia games. He's rated highly in pass protection because they rarely pass the damn football. I don't really know how well he'll hold up in pass protection at this level. 

Wirfs is a freak of nature. Becton is too. But he seems more raw. Wills is another freak of nature but him and Wirfs BOTH have not had much experience at LT. That concerns me with our team's current situation. I like any one of those receivers there though. Jeudy, Lamb and Ruggs. I think you're getting an excellent compliment to Chark. BUT. . . I really like Jefferson as a slot receiver at the next level. And you could possibly get him at 20 later on that night. 

Young is a no brainer at 9. Okudah is a no brainer at 9. Simmons is a no brainer at 9. Derrick Brown? I don't know. I like Kinlaw a little bit more in the pass rushing department. And I think later on between Neville Gallimore, McTelvin Agim, Khalil Davis & Jordan Elliot that we can get a pretty good DL3T. And I like Leki Fotu and Benito Jones as DL1T. 

So. . . tough call. But, if for whatever odd reason that Young, Okudah or Simmons slip to us at 9? I am running up to the podium with their names on the card. Just like last year where we all really, really, really WANTED Hockenson at TE. But Josh Allen at DE was just too damn good to pass up on. That was a gift. You can't mess that up.

As of now. Based on how I *think" the first eight picks are going to play out. My choices would be:

1. One of the top three overall defensive players magically fell for the taking between Young, Okudah & Simmons
2. Best WR on your draft board is selected between Jeudy, Lamb & Ruggs
3. Trade down a little bit and see if you can still gain Kinlaw at DT, Ruggs or Lamb at WR or Becton at LT

That's my ideal scenario right now.

So now, my question is how does taking Young, Okudah, Simmons or Brown (for that matter) at 9 directly help Minshew?  Would it be possible to help Minshew directly with picks after a defensive player at 9?  So what's the difference between taking a defensive player at 9 and a QB at 9 if the team thought there was a franchise QB at 9?

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I read Caldrac's post as expecting the Jags to take an offensive player based on the free agent signings, not that that's what he wants.

Personally I'd be appalled if the Jags passed on any of those defensive players you named and picked a WR. I could be OK with taking the top-rated OT instead of Simmons, mainly because he doesn't fit neatly into an NFL defense. Trading down might be an option too, although Caldwell has never traded down in the first few rounds. I don't think he knows how.

(emphasis added)

Same questions to you I posed to Caldrac,

If the primary goal is giving Minshew weapons, how does taking one of those defensive players at 9 accomplish that goal?

"So now, my question is how does taking Young, Okudah, Simmons or Brown (for that matter) at 9 directly help Minshew?  Would it be possible to help Minshew directly with picks after a defensive player at 9?  So what's the difference between taking a defensive player at 9 and a QB at 9 if the team thought there was a franchise QB at 9?"

Having a splash player on defense that can make a big hit in the secondary or backfield, consistently hold up well in coverage or against the run or make a big splash play via turnover will ultimately help out Minshew and the offense in general. We saw that in 2017 several times over. 

There's a huge difference between drafting an impact player on defense there with the 9th overall pick Vs. gambling on a "franchise" QB with all of those question marks I raised earlier. Again:

• Burrow is going to the Bengals. He only had ONE major year of production. Haskins did the same thing for the Buckeyes. It doesn't mean Burrow will pan out the same way. But it's a possibility. Especially in THAT market. 
  

• Tagovailoa's inability to physically hold up is a major, major concern at this level. Hip, knee and ankle injuries for a guy that makes plays on the run is not ideal. RGIII's career was cut short quickly due those injuries. 
  

• Herbert just comes off as too quiet, he didn't really elevate his play enough for me personally from 2018 to 2019 to say he's the guy. I worry about his accuracy. I don't care if he can fling it. The concern is can he fling it AND put it on the money consistently? I don't think he can. 
  

I am telling you. This class REEKS of 2011 for me. I think you'll see a lot of QB's "surprisingly" slip this year by the experts because the free agency market was over saturated and quite honestly spoiled with competent, veteran QB's this year. If Rivers, Brady & Bridgewater weren't available along with Foles this off season? Sure, a lot of guys would probably end up getting drafted early. You now have Newton on the market. He could end up in L.A or Miami very soon. Thus, knocking the QB need down the draftboards. 

The reason you take a TOP TIER defender with the 9th overall pick THERE is because the value is just too good. I think once you get past the top dogs at those skill positions it really, really starts to get murky. You have to take the value there when you can. Especially in a rebuild phase. They also have 12 picks to move up and down with. Let's say Okudah falls to 9? FINE BY ME.

No. 9 - Jeff Okudah
No. 20 - Justin Jefferson - WR - LSU
No. 48 - Isaiah Wilson - OT - UGA
No. 73 - Add another offensive player here. Maybe a TE? A Guard? Versatile RB? Depends on the value. 

I've stated in other threads. Not a fan of the top rated QB's this year. BUT. . . wouldn't rule out taking a guy like Jacob Eason, Steven Montez or Cole McDonald later on in the draft as a competitor to push Minshew. Especially Montez and McDonald because they're similar in a sense that can move and throw on the run and escape and create. But you can get those guys later on. 

I also don't trust Caldwell's QB decisions. He got lucky with Minshew. But this is the same guy that drafted Bortles. During a similar year where the top rated guys were all shaky at best between him, Manziel and Bridgewater (who is now a starting QB and has proven himself). Take the value when it falls in your lap. Don't over think it. The QB position is the most polarizing position in football. And you landed one last year in the 6th RD that could potentially be the answer to your prayers. 

Fix your defense and offense around him. Give him a shot. It's a low risk / high reward situation during a draft where the QB class just has too many damn question marks to feel confident about making a decision that early.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

I'm in the do not draft a QB this year camp.
Dobbs cost us a 5th, he's our QB from this year's draft essentially.
Minshew and Dobbs are our 2020 rostered QBs. I'm OK with signing a cheap veteran as a camp body but think we as fans and the franchise should be all-in on Minshew this year.
We have so much draft capital in the next two drafts we could really build a very good cap friendly team for many seasons to come without burning a bunch of picks on getting mid level QBs or trading up hoping that some QB is going to elevate what is a fairly depleted roster right now.

Build the team... solidify the OL, put the proper weapons in place, get the D to average...

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Just curious on what some of your takes are on this scenario:

Given our plethora of draft picks, would you guys be in favor of drafting Jalen Hurts if he was available in the 3rd round?

I am not a huge Hurts fan.  I will say that 3rd round is the ceiling under which I would draft Hurts.  That spot should also fit the narrative about expending too many high draft picks-esp. 1st round at the position.

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This is more on me than you.

https://youtu.be/pezCrpDlmCs

Always like a good Seinfeld reference....

https://youtu.be/H1g5iPdwTL4

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All in on Minshew for this year lets see if he makes the step to being the guy.

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No Fun

Under normal circumstances, I don't think a team should spend a high draft pick on a QB in two straight years.  Reason being, I don't think you can tell if you have "the guy" until at least the middle of year 2.  And during that time, you need to give him as many practice reps as possible, and he needs to start.   Drafting a starting QB in back to back drafts handicaps both of them, because they would both have to be developed and evaluated, and there aren't enough practices for both of them and they can't both start regular season games.  When we draft a QB to start, you have to focus all your resources on that guy.  

In the case of the Jags, Minshew was arguably the best rookie QB last year.  That's why I would put our focus on him this year, and not draft another starter.  If he doesn't work out this year, look for a new one next year.   We have to be a little bit disciplined about this.   This isn't the last time we'll be able to draft a QB.  There will be more candidates next year.

(Emphasis added)


Though in my original post, I discuss taking QB early this year and possibly next year, in the most immediate context, I'm talking about this year.  Remember, we don't know how the draft position think will pan out next year.  Even if Trevor Lawrence and J. Fields have great years, declare themselves draft eligible, and are the top two signal callers, we don't know whether we'll be in position to draft either of them with or without having to trade up to get them.  This leaves us with this year.  As of this year, we haven't taken a QB high in the past two seasons. 

You continue with the imminently fair observation that it can take a while to know what you have in a player at that position.  But if Minshew is still an unknown (at least not fully known) quantity, why would you consider changing your draft priorities to accommodate him?  If an independent objective analysis of the available talent on the boars shows the best player is on defense, why would you draft a weapon for Minshew?  (I know exactly why and I an fairly certain those of you reading know why too, but I'd like to see the reasoning.)

But to continue on this theme, this carries into the last emphasized point.

For those of you arguing the draft's focus should be on helping Minshew, do you now assert that any pick other than a WR or LT (those positions that might be of most direct help to Minshew which appear to be worth at or near that draft spot) at 9 would be a mistake?

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As much as i want to believe this year is a make or break year for Caldwell and Marrone, I'm doubtful in it. But with taking that in consideration, i don't think drafting a qb with a high pick makes sense this year. Give Minshew his chance. If he succeeds awesome, if he doesn't then let the new coaching staff bring in their guy.

So basically you would avoid pulling the trigger on a QB because you don't believe this current administration is fit to make that decision?

What if they happen to be accurate in their evaluation and the player they like otherwise fits at 9?  If some picks are mistakes, is every pick a mistake?

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I feel we will draft another late round QB to compete with Dobbs. Nothing before round 6 though.

So you think that's what WILL happen.  What do you think SHOULD happen?

If it's a make or break year, the team needs to focus on filling holes. You have a QB that performed on par with the ORoY QB that was taken first. If our situation was different and we actually had a pretty decent team without holes, then i would be more than happy to take a gamble and draft another QB. We just aren't there. There's very few players on the board that wouldn't be upgrades to the majority of our positions on every ones mock draft within 2-3 picks. We basically just need to upgrade too much to be wasting picks on a position that we at least feel semi confident about. If Minshew doesn't turn out to be the man, then at the very least we have invested in some current needs that will benefit the whole team moving forward. It honestly sucks we aren't in the position to be able to trade up and risk everything on a QB. You'd think after this many years of picking so high, we wouldn't need to be filling so many holes.

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Honestly, if the player they want isn't there this team needs to trade down and stock up more. If you move down and someone falls to you that is graded high take them even if they are a QB. No more forcing square pegs into round holes with this team. We have really made franchise killing decisions on our offensive selections.

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The Khan Years

Patience, Persistence, and Piss Poor General Managers.

Honestly, if the player they want isn't there this team needs to trade down and stock up more.  If you move down and someone falls to you that is graded high take them even if they are a QB.  No more forcing square pegs into round holes with this team.  We have really made franchise killing decisions on our offensive selections.

The history of this team includes plenty of horrible offensive drafting, but recently the draft has been more defensively focused and the offensive picks have been mostly fine. 

Bortles in 2014 and Fournette chosen way too early in 2017 are the only bad offensive picks in the past 6 drafts.
 (unless you are all in on Cam Robinson being a bad pick at this stage)

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I'm in the do not draft a QB this year camp.
Dobbs cost us a 5th, he's our QB from this year's draft essentially.
Minshew and Dobbs are our 2020 rostered QBs. I'm OK with signing a cheap veteran as a camp body but think we as fans and the franchise should be all-in on Minshew this year.
We have so much draft capital in the next two drafts we could really build a very good cap friendly team for many seasons to come without burning a bunch of picks on getting mid level QBs or trading up hoping that some QB is going to elevate what is a fairly depleted roster right now.

Build the team... solidify the OL, put the proper weapons in place, get the D to average...

Won't go that far. If there is a developmental QB who slips in the middle rounds, and is an upgrade from Dobbs, I am happy to move on. We spent that pick basically as an insurance plan. Thankfully, we didn't need to file a claim.

We have a ton of day 3 picks, using one on another QB may find us another diamond in the rough. What's the worst that happens, we get a QB to put on the PS for a season, or we get a good one, and can ship dobbs off for a late/conditional pick before the season starts.

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Honestly, if the player they want isn't there this team needs to trade down and stock up more.  If you move down and someone falls to you that is graded high take them even if they are a QB.  No more forcing square pegs into round holes with this team.  We have really made franchise killing decisions on our offensive selections.

The history of this team includes plenty of horrible offensive drafting, but recently the draft has been more defensively focused and the offensive picks have been mostly fine. 

Bortles in 2014 and Fournette chosen way too early in 2017 are the only bad offensive picks in the past 6 drafts.
 (unless you are all in on Cam Robinson being a bad pick at this stage)

Yeldon, Lee, and Cann were bad picks on my ledger too. Just counting first 3 rounders.

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I'm in the do not draft a QB this year camp.
Dobbs cost us a 5th, he's our QB from this year's draft essentially.
Minshew and Dobbs are our 2020 rostered QBs. I'm OK with signing a cheap veteran as a camp body but think we as fans and the franchise should be all-in on Minshew this year.
We have so much draft capital in the next two drafts we could really build a very good cap friendly team for many seasons to come without burning a bunch of picks on getting mid level QBs or trading up hoping that some QB is going to elevate what is a fairly depleted roster right now.

Build the team... solidify the OL, put the proper weapons in place, get the D to average...

Won't go that far. If there is a developmental QB who slips in the middle rounds, and is an upgrade from Dobbs, I am happy to move on. We spent that pick basically as an insurance plan. Thankfully, we didn't need to file a claim.

We have a ton of day 3 picks, using one on another QB may find us another diamond in the rough. What's the worst that happens, we get a QB to put on the PS for a season, or we get a good one, and can ship dobbs off for a late/conditional pick before the season starts.

But who in this QB crop in the mid rounds is going to be clearly a better backup than Dobbs who has been in the league a couple seasons already and been with the team for almost a full season.


Khalil Tate?
Nate Stanley?

no thanks

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