Mayock is very much old school. He likes physical players that aren't afraid of contact. Not saying that's a bad thing, but I've found it important to keep that in mind whenever I hear Mayock discuss draft prospects. And I agree about Smith grinding. He didn't let us get off easy and just be a one and done or anything like that. He made sure that he took his time and that when it was all said and done, the cupboard was completely bare.

 

 

I laugh at this, not only because it is funny, but to keep from crying.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Well, like I said, just about 'everything' was a need.  That includes DT.  There's just so many options available at 'need' when you have a lot of needs.  There's no reason DT HAD to be the pick, when there were other highly rated players available at other positions of need.  If Alualu wasn't on the top of his board, I don't see why he'd have drafted him for 'need' because he certainly wasn't graded by most as a Top 10 player.  

 

That's why it's easy to paint gene as a 'needs' drafter.  Because we had enough needs where most picks were going to fit a need anyway.  Unless BAP happened to be a RB or FB.

 

 Agreed.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Agreed.

Actually, this is why it should have been easier for him to be a BAP drafter. We had tons of needs, but he reached time and time again.

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If memory serves me correctly, I thought he was released prior to the pick...but you may be right here. 

 

If you are, and Smith intended all along to release Henderson after the draft, it still means DT was a need.

There is no way of knowing his intentions. You can only go by the actual evidence which is at the time of the pick there was no special need on the roster for a DT.

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Actually, this is why it should have been easier for him to be a BAP drafter. We had tons of needs, but he reached time and time again.

And his reaches were a result of his poor evaluating.  

 

-A needs drafter might have drafted JPP, unless Alualu was higher on his board.

-A BAP drafter drafts the highest player on his board regardless.

 

Ergo... in either scenario, Alualu has to be the highest player on his board.

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I was wrong about Trent Baalke. 

And his reaches were a result of his poor evaluating.


-A needs drafter might have drafted JPP, unless Alualu was higher on his board.

-A BAP drafter drafts the highest player on his board regardless.


Ergo... in either scenario, Alualu has to be the highest player on his board.

And again, you don't know that. None of us do.

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And his reaches were a result of his poor evaluating.  

 

-A needs drafter might have drafted JPP, unless Alualu was higher on his board.

-A BAP drafter drafts the highest player on his board regardless.

 

Ergo... in either scenario, Alualu has to be the highest player on his board.

We had bigger positions of need than DT and the better talent was at those positions of need. This doesn't point to a needs drafter. It points to a bad talent evaluator.

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There is no way of knowing his intentions. You can only go by the actual evidence which is at the time of the pick there was no special need on the roster for a DT.

 

But if you are right and he was released after the Alualu pick, for one reason or another, Smith had to have considered Henderson expendable.  As inept as Smith was, somehow I doubt he had not given that any consideration prior to the draft.

In other words, consideration of the actual evidence (as you put it) must also include what happened immediately after the draft.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

And again, you don't know that. None of us do.

Under what scenario does Gene Smith take Alualu if he's not the highest rated player on his board?  What players are rated higher that he doesn't take because they aren't at a position of 'need'

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I was wrong about Trent Baalke. 

I don't know, TBH.

 

If you believe the "Ketchman's bad influence theory," he advocated BAP without really getting into the evaluation aspect, and fans who look up to him ran with it without considering the evaluation/ranking aspect, either.

 

Whether it's that or for some other reason, it seems this is always left out of the analysis.

I think if you make the assumption that you are getting your evaluations right, theoretically, BAP should net you the most overall talent.

 

The problem arises when the BAP is at a redundant position on your roster. BAP assumes that a player will maintain his relative draft value if he develops the way he was expected, but it doesn't work that way. Just like when you drive a car off the lot, the players draft value plummets almost as soon as he is drafted.

 

Take Monroe for instance. He may have not quite lived up to expectations, but he was good enough not to consider his pick a wasted pick or a bust. A quality starter at a premium position. There is no way someone would expect to find a quality starter at a premium position with a 4th or 5th rd pick, yet that turned out to be his market value.

 

When BAP lands on a position with room for improvement, it is a more efficient way to acquire talent. If you stick to BAP when it lands on a position of strength, you could actually loose overall talent due to depreciation of trade value.

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Nothing will convince me that anger was BAP in the 3rd. End of story.

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Under what scenario does Gene Smith take Alualu if he's not the highest rated player on his board? What players are rated higher that he doesn't take because they aren't at a position of 'need'

As I said, I look at the entirety of what he has done. No, I have no way of knowing if he was the highest rated player or not.

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But if you are right and he was released after the Alualu pick, for one reason or another, Smith had to have considered Henderson expendable.  As inept as Smith was, somehow I doubt he had not given that any consideration prior to the draft.

In other words, consideration of the actual evidence (as you put it) must also include what happened immediately after the draft.

Considering Smith has no way of knowing who would be available when he picked, I'm sure he would have to consider a lot of people as possibly being expendable.

 

You can't assume that Smith knew Tyson would be available at the pick or that someone he may have rated higher wouldn't fall to him..

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Gene Smith was a LOVE drafter. He fell in love with a guy and picked him when there were better players available. That isn't BAP drafting nor Needs Drafting, that's just bad drafting.

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Gene Smith was a LOVE drafter. He fell in love with a guy and picked him when there were better players available. That isn't BAP drafting nor Needs Drafting, that's just bad drafting.

Lol, I can agree to this.

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Gene Smith was a LOVE drafter. He fell in love with a guy and picked him when there were better players available. That isn't BAP drafting nor Needs Drafting, that's just bad drafting.

I'm with you and jtmoney on this....except if he fell in love with the right guy...

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Smith claimed to be a BAP drafter, but his picks indicate he was actually a needs guy, and a needs guy that didn't understand the value of selections going by the way he traded away picks and badly reached on guys.

 

You don't pick a punter in the third round "because I wanted a starter" unless you're drafting to fill positional needs.

 

His mistake was who he picked to fill needs. If he knew a lot more about evaluating players, he would have picked JPP instead of waited until the third round to pick a DE, then stayed put at #16 the next year to pick J.J. Watt for the other side. He would have picked Russell Wilson in the second round instead of Andre Branch. Bryan Anger, of course, would not be a third round pick. If all of that happened, Smith still would have been truly a needs, not BAP, drafter.

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Nothing will convince me that Anger was BAP in the 3rd. End of story.

 

Nothing will convince me Gene Smith was a BAP drafter. He was a needs based drafter to the bone. Could he have waited until the fifth round? Sure, but that would have been risky. His mistake wasn't thinking Bryan Anger was the BAP. It was thinking drafting a punter is so important it is OK to reach for one.

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I laugh at this, not only because it is funny, but to keep from crying.

 

I have a bottle of bourbon dedicated to this exact thing.

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I'm trying to make myself more informed and less opinionated.

Stop saying whatever stupid thing you're talking about and pay attention to all the interesting things I have to say!

It all comes back to two items:

 

1.  You must evaluate correctly

2.  You must get the proper value

 

Call it needs drafting, call it BAP drafting... if you are evaluating right and getting the right value (not reaching) it really doesn't matter what you want to call it.  Misses happen, but you should be successful over the long haul if you get those two things right.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."