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Minshew Not The Man


The issue isn't Minshew's stats, and it isn't about his draft position or the lack of talent around him.

He threw for 173 yards today. He didn't have a completion until the second quarter. He missed two straight throws to Chark with the game on the line in a big way. His arm is not strong enough to make all throws he needs to make.

That throw to Conley in the end zone was a thing of beauty, but teams have figured out that if you show blitz and drop into coverage he can't fit the ball into a tight window.
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(10-25-2020, 09:30 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: I notice a lot of quiet about that TD throw to Conley. That ball was perfect.

It's not that we're quiet about it, it's that we know he can drop it in the bucket on slow, high arcing deep balls. In order for him to shut us up about not being a franchise QB he needs to be able to complete the higher velocity deep balls where he sees his WR streaking open downfield and hits him quickly in stride for a TD. He has shown he doesn't have the arm for that repeatedly.
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(10-25-2020, 11:23 PM)Upper Wrote:
(10-25-2020, 09:30 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: I notice a lot of quiet about that TD throw to Conley. That ball was perfect.

It's not that we're quiet about it, it's that we know he can drop it in the bucket on slow, high arcing deep balls. In order for him to shut us up about not being a franchise QB he needs to be able to complete the higher velocity deep balls where he sees his WR streaking open downfield and hits him quickly in stride for a TD. He has shown he doesn't have the arm for that repeatedly.

Every single guy on an NFL field is capable of making plays.  That's what got them into the building.  The question is consistency... and Minshew's consistency has been lacking the last 5 games.  That's why his QB rating has dropped to 25th in the League.  If you watch only a highlight tape of an NFL player, they would all look like all pros.  Watching the entire game is what separates them.
This is a results-oriented business.  There are no trophies or titles given for "moral victories" or for "winning the draft".  Our record with DC is 37-86.  6-10 is our 2nd best season in 8 years of Caldwell leadership.  These are the FACTS.
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(10-25-2020, 11:23 PM)Upper Wrote:
(10-25-2020, 09:30 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: I notice a lot of quiet about that TD throw to Conley. That ball was perfect.

It's not that we're quiet about it, it's that we know he can drop it in the bucket on slow, high arcing deep balls. In order for him to shut us up about not being a franchise QB he needs to be able to complete the higher velocity deep balls where he sees his WR streaking open downfield and hits him quickly in stride for a TD. He has shown he doesn't have the arm for that repeatedly.

Throwing at peoples feet on short passes. I was worried Armstead was going to have his feet taken out. 

He threw a pretty throw for a TD. I would hope anyone who starts at QB would be able to throw a TD from time to time.
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(10-25-2020, 10:37 PM)JaguarKick Wrote: The issue isn't Minshew's stats, and it isn't about his draft position or the lack of talent around him.

He threw for 173 yards today.  He didn't have a completion until the second quarter.  He missed two straight throws to Chark with the game on the line in a big way.  His arm is not strong enough to make all throws he needs to make.

That throw to Conley in the end zone was a thing of beauty, but teams have figured out that if you show blitz and drop into coverage he can't fit the ball into a tight window.

That throw to Conley was a timing pass.. Anything that’s not a timing throw Minshew has trouble. He’s just not good in the pocket. Once he put his head down the play is over. Minshew is 6’1”..Baker Mayfield is 6’1” ..Kyle Murray is 5’10” and they both are better throwing pocket QB’s than Minshew.
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(10-25-2020, 11:23 PM)Upper Wrote:
(10-25-2020, 09:30 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: I notice a lot of quiet about that TD throw to Conley. That ball was perfect.

It's not that we're quiet about it, it's that we know he can drop it in the bucket on slow, high arcing deep balls. In order for him to shut us up about not being a franchise QB he needs to be able to complete the higher velocity deep balls where he sees his WR streaking open downfield and hits him quickly in stride for a TD. He has shown he doesn't have the arm for that repeatedly.

Pretty much this..

One beautiful pass, surrounded by a dozen dud passes is not going to get it done.

It also looks like he knows he doesn't have the zip to spin it into a tight window, which I'm sure has a lot to do with him holding onto the ball for too long.
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(10-25-2020, 10:37 PM)JaguarKick Wrote: The issue isn't Minshew's stats, and it isn't about his draft position or the lack of talent around him.

He threw for 173 yards today. He didn't have a completion until the second quarter. He missed two straight throws to Chark with the game on the line in a big way. His arm is not strong enough to make all throws he needs to make.

That throw to Conley in the end zone was a thing of beauty, but teams have figured out that if you show blitz and drop into coverage he can't fit the ball into a tight window.

He was getting KILLED in the pocket. not much you can do when you're getting whipped off the snap. Joey Bosa just outclassed Jawaan Taylor, there were FIVE Chargers in Gardners face by the time he dropped down. No qb can succeed behind this Oline.
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(10-25-2020, 11:55 PM)Firesky Wrote:
(10-25-2020, 10:37 PM)JaguarKick Wrote: The issue isn't Minshew's stats, and it isn't about his draft position or the lack of talent around him.

He threw for 173 yards today.  He didn't have a completion until the second quarter.  He missed two straight throws to Chark with the game on the line in a big way.  His arm is not strong enough to make all throws he needs to make.

That throw to Conley in the end zone was a thing of beauty, but teams have figured out that if you show blitz and drop into coverage he can't fit the ball into a tight window.

He was getting KILLED in the pocket. not much you can do when you're getting whipped off the snap. Joey Bosa just outclassed Jawaan Taylor, there were FIVE Chargers in Gardners face by the time he dropped down. No qb can succeed behind this Oline.

Nope. Minshew self sacked himself multiple times today because he refused to get rid of the football.

The OL did definitely give up some pressure, they aren't completely clean in this, but Minshew needs to get rid of the damn ball a lot sooner, even if it's just a throw away.
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(10-25-2020, 11:59 PM)Eric1 Wrote:
(10-25-2020, 11:55 PM)Firesky Wrote: He was getting KILLED in the pocket. not much you can do when you're getting whipped off the snap. Joey Bosa just outclassed Jawaan Taylor, there were FIVE Chargers in Gardners face by the time he dropped down. No qb can succeed behind this Oline.

Nope. Minshew self sacked himself multiple times today because he refused to get rid of the football.

The OL did definitely give up some pressure, they aren't completely clean in this, but Minshew needs to get rid of the damn ball a lot sooner, even if it's just a throw away.

This.
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They hit him with a 3 man rush today. He isn't getting his feet set. This team is really bad.
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(10-26-2020, 12:36 AM)MoJagFan Wrote: They hit him with a 3 man rush today.  He isn't getting his feet set. This team is really bad.

Including Minshew.

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(10-25-2020, 11:46 PM)iam Wrote:
(10-25-2020, 10:37 PM)JaguarKick Wrote: The issue isn't Minshew's stats, and it isn't about his draft position or the lack of talent around him.

He threw for 173 yards today.  He didn't have a completion until the second quarter.  He missed two straight throws to Chark with the game on the line in a big way.  His arm is not strong enough to make all throws he needs to make.

That throw to Conley in the end zone was a thing of beauty, but teams have figured out that if you show blitz and drop into coverage he can't fit the ball into a tight window.

That throw to Conley was a timing pass.. Anything that’s not a timing throw Minshew has trouble. He’s just not good in the pocket. Once he put his head down the play is over. Minshew is 6’1”..Baker Mayfield is 6’1” ..Kyle Murray is 5’10” and they both are better throwing pocket QB’s than Minshew.

That’s what the west coast offense is: timing passes. I think a lot of people here don’t understand what a west coast offense is.

Minshew is supposed to make reads. The Conley throw was a timing route with favorable coverage(cover 0) pre snap.

We have no idea what his reads are. Head coaches have even said in the past that there is no way to know what reads an opposing offense is making. It’s a guess on our part. He makes his reads and then dumps off if nothing is open. That’s the play. So these downfield open receivers people are talking about are either not in his progressions or were not open at the time he looked for them.



From Wikipedia about a west coast offense:
[font=-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont,]“WCO" plays unfold quicker than in traditional offenses and are usually based on timing routes by the receivers. In this offense the receivers also have reads and change their routes based on the coverages presented to them. The quarterback makes three reads and if no opportunity is available after three reads, the QB will then check off to a back or tight end.“[/font]

Also when there is immediate pressure allowed, timing goes out the window so the QB is forced to hold the ball because the play is now destroyed.  
He also holds the ball in these situations because he has the ability to create. Each week, that ability to create has popped up more and more as he has learned the offense and where guys will be.
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(10-25-2020, 11:59 PM)Eric1 Wrote:
(10-25-2020, 11:55 PM)Firesky Wrote: He was getting KILLED in the pocket. not much you can do when you're getting whipped off the snap. Joey Bosa just outclassed Jawaan Taylor, there were FIVE Chargers in Gardners face by the time he dropped down. No qb can succeed behind this Oline.

Nope. Minshew self sacked himself multiple times today because he refused to get rid of the football.

The OL did definitely give up some pressure, they aren't completely clean in this, but Minshew needs to get rid of the damn ball a lot sooner, even if it's just a throw away.


You sure there was a place to go with the ball? A few of those “self sacks” no one was open down field when they panned around. You want him to just force the rock?

I’m thinking he doesn’t have the arm strength to fit it in and limits his reads appropriately. I had no problem with losing this game.
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(This post was last modified: 10-26-2020, 07:57 AM by rpr52121.)

(10-26-2020, 07:45 AM)NoShoes Wrote:
(10-25-2020, 11:59 PM)Eric1 Wrote: Nope. Minshew self sacked himself multiple times today because he refused to get rid of the football.

The OL did definitely give up some pressure, they aren't completely clean in this, but Minshew needs to get rid of the damn ball a lot sooner, even if it's just a throw away.


You sure there was a place to go with the ball?  A few of those “self sacks” no one was open down field when they panned around.   You want him to just force the rock?

I’m thinking he doesn’t have the arm strength to fit it in and limits his reads appropriately. I had no problem with losing this game.

But this is precisely what we are saying.

In today's NFL, you cannot pass to "only the open guy" every time. There are lot of play with super tight windows or where you have to throw the guy open. Those throws often require more arm strength, or least more trust in your arm, than Minshew is showing.

Additionally, if QB cannot make those kinds of plays when he doesn't have the time or space to use perfect mechanics, it generally becomes a lot harder to win games consistently. The exceptions are HOF QBs with great and quick understanding of coverages. While Minshew is good at this, he has is not elite at it on Sunday's yet.
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(10-26-2020, 07:56 AM)rpr52121 Wrote:
(10-26-2020, 07:45 AM)NoShoes Wrote: You sure there was a place to go with the ball?  A few of those “self sacks” no one was open down field when they panned around.   You want him to just force the rock?

I’m thinking he doesn’t have the arm strength to fit it in and limits his reads appropriately. I had no problem with losing this game.

But this is precisely what we are saying.

In today's NFL, you cannot pass to "only the open guy" every time. There are lot of play with super tight windows or where you have to throw the guy open. Those throws often require more arm strength, or least more trust in your arm, than Minshew is showing.

Additionally, if QB cannot make those kinds of plays when he doesn't have the time or space to use perfect mechanics, it generally becomes a lot harder to win games consistently. The exceptions are HOF QBs with great and quick understanding of coverages. While Minshew is good at this, he has is not elite at it on Sunday's yet.

The problems he's having aren't related to specifically to arm strength. The problems he's having is consistently missing open receivers and not reading the plays well which is remarkable because he had been doing pretty well with that earlier on. Also there's a sense that he's feeling the pass rush a lot more than he was last year and the first couple of games this year. Guess it's understandable considering our crappy OL.
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(This post was last modified: 10-26-2020, 10:23 AM by mal234.)

(10-26-2020, 07:45 AM)NoShoes Wrote:
(10-25-2020, 11:59 PM)Eric1 Wrote: Nope. Minshew self sacked himself multiple times today because he refused to get rid of the football.

The OL did definitely give up some pressure, they aren't completely clean in this, but Minshew needs to get rid of the damn ball a lot sooner, even if it's just a throw away.


You sure there was a place to go with the ball?  A few of those “self sacks” no one was open down field when they panned around.   You want him to just force the rock?

I’m thinking he doesn’t have the arm strength to fit it in and limits his reads appropriately. I had no problem with losing this game.

I don't like to see the Jags continue to lose. But like I mentioned in the game day thread yesterday, this loss didn't look/feel as bad as the other ones. I know that isn't much if really any comfort to many Jags fans at this point. But the Jags did look much more competitive and after going down by multiple scores early on fought back and got themselves in that game. And was leading at points in the game. And I think that the Chargers are one of the better teams with a bad record. They have lost multiple close games this year and could very easily be like 4-2 or even 5-2, if not for things like coaching mistakes.

Justin has been playing well, though didn't get his first win until yesterday. But that isn't because the Chargers haven't been competitive. A loss is still a loss, but this one wasn't as bad as the ones against the teams like the Lions and Bengals. Two teams I think are worse off than the Chargers. This loss reminded me more of the Titans loss.

29 points is often enough to win a game. If the Jags played more like they did yesterday, (but have less of a sluggish start) they probably could win more games this season. They need to play with urgency all throughout the game.
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(10-05-2020, 06:31 PM)mal234 Wrote: At one point Kyler this season had more interceptions than TDs and it was largely crickets from people that think he's much better than Minshew. Let Minshew run around doing that and all heck would break loose, lol. And people have definitely been trashing him  in various places. And IMO, Kyler is a better example of being overhyped than Gardner is). (And is not criticized nearly as much. He's been overhyped since last season and should not have won the OROY award over players like Josh Jacobs. There were people that said that the Jags as not winning any games this season, while saying Kyler would be an MVP candidate. Before either the Jags or Cardinals played this year. Yet he hasn't really looked any better than Gardner this year. 

Care to provide an update?
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(10-25-2020, 11:59 PM)Eric1 Wrote:
(10-25-2020, 11:55 PM)Firesky Wrote: He was getting KILLED in the pocket. not much you can do when you're getting whipped off the snap. Joey Bosa just outclassed Jawaan Taylor, there were FIVE Chargers in Gardners face by the time he dropped down. No qb can succeed behind this Oline.

Nope. Minshew self sacked himself multiple times today because he refused to get rid of the football.

The OL did definitely give up some pressure, they aren't completely clean in this, but Minshew needs to get rid of the damn ball a lot sooner, even if it's just a throw away.

This is exactly right.
This is a results-oriented business.  There are no trophies or titles given for "moral victories" or for "winning the draft".  Our record with DC is 37-86.  6-10 is our 2nd best season in 8 years of Caldwell leadership.  These are the FACTS.
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(10-26-2020, 10:40 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote:
(10-05-2020, 06:31 PM)mal234 Wrote: At one point Kyler this season had more interceptions than TDs and it was largely crickets from people that think he's much better than Minshew. Let Minshew run around doing that and all heck would break loose, lol. And people have definitely been trashing him  in various places. And IMO, Kyler is a better example of being overhyped than Gardner is). (And is not criticized nearly as much. He's been overhyped since last season and should not have won the OROY award over players like Josh Jacobs. There were people that said that the Jags as not winning any games this season, while saying Kyler would be an MVP candidate. Before either the Jags or Cardinals played this year. Yet he hasn't really looked any better than Gardner this year. 

Care to provide an update?

lol. What I said was true. He did have more interceptions than TD's at that time. He has been overhyped in the past and IMO did not deserve the OROY. That should have gone to someone like Josh Jacobs. And people did say that Jags weren't winning any games, they did win one, lol. And at the time he didn't look much better than Gardner. 

Granted the Cardinals have currently have a good record. And they have a good shot of making the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised if they went. Though, they play in the most competitive division in the NFC. And I believe they had like a .500 record at the time of this post. So, they were already doing okay, even with him not playing as well then. 

Wins is the most important stat and his team is definitely better than the Jags in that regard. But individually, Gardner is still hanging with him. They have the same amount of TD's thrown (13) and Gardner still has less interceptions than Kyler. Even in spite of the Jags struggles and their long losing streak. Gardner has five to Kyler's seven. And that's with Kyler playing on a much better team with a better coach. Gardner's passer rating is slightly better, though Kyler's QBR is better.
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