Some are speculating that San Francisco will take Trey Lance.  The first argument is that SF wouldn't trade that high unless they knew they had their guy.  Fields' pro day is next week.  If he's their target, wouldn't they wait until after that to see how he did before making the trade?  Also, San Francisco is saying that they plan to keep Jimmy Garoppolo as their starter in 2021 despite having a high salary.  Some are interpreting this as a sign they are taking the developmental quarterback, Trey Lance, and will need an experienced quarterback until he's ready.  Would you keep Garoppolo and his $26 million cap hit if you were drafting Fields?  

On the other hand, maybe San Francisco likes Fields enough that they are confident about his pro-day.  They could also just be saying that they are keeping Garoppolo as a strategy to drive up his trade value.

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Some are speculating that San Francisco will take Trey Lance.  The first argument is that SF wouldn't trade that high unless they knew they had their guy.  Fields' pro day is next week.  If he's their target, wouldn't they wait until after that to see how he did before making the trade?  Also, San Francisco is saying that they plan to keep Jimmy Garoppolo as their starter in 2021 despite having a high salary.  Some are interpreting this as a sign they are taking the developmental quarterback, Trey Lance, and will need an experienced quarterback until he's ready.  Would you keep Garoppolo and his $26 million cap hit if you were drafting Fields?  

On the other hand, maybe San Francisco likes Fields enough that they are confident about his pro-day.  They could also just be saying that they are keeping Garoppolo as a strategy to drive up his trade value.

Some are speculating that Mac Jones is the true target.

Shanahan had a similar QB in Matt Ryan while with Atlanta, and a similar QB in Washington with Kirk Cousins.  That and they made the move without attending the Ohio State workout.

All I know is as bad as that 1-15 season was last year, I would gladly endure it since it resulted in us getting the first overall pick this year.

Quick survey:  49ers GM John Lynch traded THREE (3) first round picks and a 3rd round pick to get to pick 3.  If you were the Jaguars' GM sitting at 12, would you have been willing to make a similar trade to get up for a QB?

If so, which QB would you have targeted?

How much more would you have been willing to pay to go higher?

If not, why not?

How much longer would you be willing to wait before you got your franchise QB if you were not willing to trade up?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Bullseye, this trade has me completely dumbfounded!

I can see only two explanations that would make this a good move but I see both as extremely unlikely;

49ers have some inside info that the Jets are really happy with Darnold and think they will pick someone other than Wilson.
Or,
They have everyone completely fooled and are moving up to get a non-QB

In my opinion, and I am no GM or amazing player evaluator but there is not chance I trade away all that capitol for any other QB other than TLaw or Wilson and that’s a push for the latter.

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Bullseye, this trade has me completely dumbfounded!

I can see only two explanations that would make this a good move but I see both as extremely unlikely;

49ers have some inside info that the Jets are really happy with Darnold and think they will pick someone other than Wilson.
Or,
They have everyone completely fooled and are moving up to get a non-QB

In my opinion, and I am no GM or amazing player evaluator but there is not chance I trade away all that capitol for any other QB other than TLaw or Wilson and that’s a push for the latter.

Thanks for the perspective.

You humbly acknowledge you aren't a GM or amazing player evaluator.  You have broken the first rule of the message board.  All message board posters are great GMs and player evaluators!     

But seriously, it could certainly be argued that 49ers Gm John Lynch IS a GM and in fact a great player evaluator based on his work with the 49ers, having guided them to a Super Bowl appearance (and near win) in a relatively short period of time.  He has made two trades to get QBs (well, one confirmed with the current trade in question presumably for a QB).

As for your two admittedly unlikely possibilities, they beg questions.

1.  If they knew the Jets were not taking Wilson (or any QB) at #2, and they were targeting the guy the Jets were not going to take in Wilson, why make the trade now, and give other teams a whole month to move ahead of them to take their guy?  I remember back in 1997 when the Raiders made a trade up to #2 overall, presumably to get T Orlando Pace, only for the Rams to out maneuver them days later to move up to #1 to get him.

2.  If they were taking a non QB, who would they be targeting?   Pitts?  They already have an all world TE in Kittle, who is signed and still in his prime.  Besides, TEs typically can be found much later.  One of the three WRs?  That would make no sense, given the 49ers have invested fairly heavily in the position in recent years and seem fine at the position.  O-Line?  They just signed LT Trent Williams to a massive 6 year contract.  DL?  Aside from them already being well stocked at DL, there's no defender in this draft at face value worth a top three pick.  In fact, most mock drafts indicate there is no defender worth being taken in the top 8-10 picks.

3.  Back to one of the questions I posed that you did not address, if you had a strong conviction about one of the QBs, but you were iffy at best  about whether he would be worth that investment, how long would you be willing to go without a viable franchise QB, assuming you did not make the trade SF made for whatever reason?

4.  You indicate the only two QBs you might have made that move for are Lawrence and maybe Wilson, and you said Wilson was an iffy proposition.  Yet giving up what they did only got them to pick three, presumably out of range for either of the top two QBs.  What WOULD you have paid to get up to Lawrence, if 3 1sts and a 3rd is the ceiling for Wilson?

For me, the whole thing shows how rare QBs are and how desperate teams are to find them.

With the QB they have now, the 49ers just appeared in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago.  While he didn't have a  great game in that Super Bowl, I don't think he's anywhere near bad enough for the 49ers to be described as truly desperate at the position.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Bullseye, Great questions, food for thought. I am with you completely in your summary paragraph at the end. Which is why I am dumbfounded as to why the desperation.

1. I agree, early move if they were targeting someone else, giving the game away.
2. Again, exactly, who would they take other than QB...Sewell but then the Williams contract probably makes that a silly move.
3. A season tops, if your building the rest of the Roster first (this would be an odd way of doing things.
4. I value TLaw as a prospect that even if he fails to be great he’s still going to be very good. Where as Wilson could be a bust. Therefore to move up to 1st for TLaw literally almost every pick for the next few years in the 1st-3rd rounds which would have to include multiple 1st each year. Anything else I wouldn’t except I think he’s worth that much.

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4. I value TLaw as a prospect that even if he fails to be great he’s still going to be very good. Where as Wilson could be a bust. Therefore to move up to 1st for TLaw literally almost every pick for the next few years in the 1st-3rd rounds which would have to include multiple 1st each year. Anything else I wouldn’t except I think he’s worth that much.

The funny thing is that as exorbitant as the cost of the 49ers move up was, I could see where the Jets giving us five first round picks for Trevor Lawrence wouldn't be enough.

Giving up that much for Trevor Lawrence would be theoretically feasible for the Jets considering they have two first rounders the next two years thanks to the Adams trade to Seattle.  The Jets could give up both first round picks this year, both next year, and then a first round pick in 2023 and I wouldn't be persuaded that would be the right thing to do.

First, the odds of hitting on all of those picks are low.  More likely, we'll hit on some, miss on others.  That alone would mitigate the rewards for trading Lawrence.  On top of that, those picks they get from Seattle will likely be low.  Even though Wilson is complaining about the lack of protection he has, he's good enough and Seattle is good enough to where they will likely be in contention the next couple of years unless Seattle is dumb enough to trade Wilson.

Secondly, even assuming we hit on all of those picks, it's doubtful we re-sign all of those picks.  Granted we are operating under a different GM, but this team has a dubious history of retaining its own players.

But most importantly, the chances of us finding a QB as good as Trevor Lawrence are low.  While Wilson has a lot of admirers in the draft, the overwhelming consensus is he is the second best QB in this draft, and it isn't really that close.  If this dominant paradigm is true, odds are we'll end up using those picks to try to get another QB in the intermediate future anyway.

Now you said the most you would be willing to wait to get your franchise QB is a season tops.  Next year, the QB class at the top isn't nearly as strong as this year's class.  This year's class has possibly 5 QBs with first round grades:  Lawrence, Fields, Jones Lance and Wilson.  The 2022 class has UNC's Howell that looks to have a first round grade, and pundits are not calling him a generational type prospect the way they are describing Lawrence.

Unless you finish with the top overall pick, you'll either have to trade up, or hope he falls to where you are picking.  How do you guarantee you won't wait more than a year to get your franchise QB?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I would trade #1 for Mahomes. Outside of that, not sure I would trade Lawrence for anyone or anything.

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I would trade #1 for Mahomes. Outside of that, not sure I would trade Lawrence for anyone or anything.

Same here.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Bullseye, this trade has me completely dumbfounded!

I can see only two explanations that would make this a good move but I see both as extremely unlikely;

49ers have some inside info that the Jets are really happy with Darnold and think they will pick someone other than Wilson.
Or,
They have everyone completely fooled and are moving up to get a non-QB

In my opinion, and I am no GM or amazing player evaluator but there is not chance I trade away all that capitol for any other QB other than TLaw or Wilson and that’s a push for the latter.

I think you are way off base.  Reports were that the 49ers were negotiating with all of the high teams except the Jaguars and Jets.  If the Jets were targeting someone other than Wilson, why wouldn't they at least listen to trade offers?  It's clear they are taking Wilson. 

In regards to the 49ers, why in the world would they give up everything that they gave for a player other than quarterback?  It's clear that they have three quarterbacks that they like and plan to take one at #3.

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Some are speculating that San Francisco will take Trey Lance.  The first argument is that SF wouldn't trade that high unless they knew they had their guy.  Fields' pro day is next week.  If he's their target, wouldn't they wait until after that to see how he did before making the trade?  Also, San Francisco is saying that they plan to keep Jimmy Garoppolo as their starter in 2021 despite having a high salary.  Some are interpreting this as a sign they are taking the developmental quarterback, Trey Lance, and will need an experienced quarterback until he's ready.  Would you keep Garoppolo and his $26 million cap hit if you were drafting Fields?  

On the other hand, maybe San Francisco likes Fields enough that they are confident about his pro-day.  They could also just be saying that they are keeping Garoppolo as a strategy to drive up his trade value.

Some are speculating that Mac Jones is the true target.

Shanahan had a similar QB in Matt Ryan while with Atlanta, and a similar QB in Washington with Kirk Cousins.  That and they made the move without attending the Ohio State workout.

I still would put Trey Lance as the favorite for reasons that I previously stated.  Fields would be next.  They might have made the trade prior to his pro day for fear that some other team might trade into the #3 spot if they waited.  They might also have thought that a successful pro day by Fields would raise the cost of trading up.  If someone doesn't like Lance or Fields, I can understand it, but I still have trouble seeing the 49ers giving up all of that draft capital for Mac Jones.  I would put the order of likelihood as:
  
1.  Trey Lance
2.  Justin Fields
3.  Mac Jones
  
What order would you put?

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Some are speculating that Mac Jones is the true target.

Shanahan had a similar QB in Matt Ryan while with Atlanta, and a similar QB in Washington with Kirk Cousins.  That and they made the move without attending the Ohio State workout.

I still would put Trey Lance as the favorite for reasons that I previously stated.  Fields would be next.  They might have made the trade prior to his pro day for fear that some other team might trade into the #3 spot if they waited.  They might also have thought that a successful pro day by Fields would raise the cost of trading up.  If someone doesn't like Lance or Fields, I can understand it, but I still have trouble seeing the 49ers giving up all of that draft capital for Mac Jones.  I would put the order of likelihood as:
  
1.  Trey Lance
2.  Justin Fields
3.  Mac Jones
  
What order would you put?

Personally, I would say......

1. Mac Jones
2. Trey Lance
3. Justin Fields

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Some are speculating that Mac Jones is the true target.

Shanahan had a similar QB in Matt Ryan while with Atlanta, and a similar QB in Washington with Kirk Cousins.  That and they made the move without attending the Ohio State workout.

I still would put Trey Lance as the favorite for reasons that I previously stated.  Fields would be next.  They might have made the trade prior to his pro day for fear that some other team might trade into the #3 spot if they waited.  They might also have thought that a successful pro day by Fields would raise the cost of trading up.  If someone doesn't like Lance or Fields, I can understand it, but I still have trouble seeing the 49ers giving up all of that draft capital for Mac Jones.  I would put the order of likelihood as:
  
1.  Trey Lance
2.  Justin Fields
3.  Mac Jones
  
What order would you put?

I would list the order identically.

I just wanted to relay that particular speculation.

There are those who trash the 49ers for paying so much.  I'm not sure if I am among them yet.

To me, if you are certain you don't have the guy at QB, you have to do what's necessary to get that guy.  This was a team that almost won the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. 

Last year they were beset by injuries.

If they are healthy this year, the 49ers could easily have a winning season at least, which would put the first round pick they gave up at the bottom of the round.  If they hit on their QB choice, whomever that may be, they should be towards the bottom of the draft order for a while, mitigating the true cost of the trade.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Chris Simms speculated that it could be Mac Jones and I believe he might be in the know because Kyle Shanahan is his close friend and former teammate at Texas. Just something to keep an eye on

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Jones would be a huge reach at 3

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Jones would be a huge reach at 3

I dunno, Tua went top 5 and he's better than Tua

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Jones would be a huge reach at 3

I don't think so. I believe he is the clear #3 QB in this draft and I believe he's gonna have a Phillip Rivers type of career.

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No way.  Shanahan is one of the best offensive coaches in the NFL and he has to be drooling iver the physical traits of Lance or Fields.

They are better athletes, but Jones has a much better pocket presence, accuracy and command of the huddle. Not to mention that he is pretty decent at avoiding a pass rush, even if he isn't gonna be a standout in that area. He's a much better QB than Fields and I just can't see a team trading up that high for an enigma like Lance, who has such a small sample size at a small school. I think Lance is the 4th QB selected just because of the unknown factor.

If they are moving that high for Mac Jones, I question the front office. That's either a sign that nobody in the 5-7 range wanted to move (which I would question, considering Philly then traded with MIA) or that their mocks disagree with most of the conventional wisdom out there that typically has the darft falling where Jones is readily available after the Falcons pick.

Most every mock I've seen has the Falcons taking Lance, whether that's by default of best QB remaining after Tlaw/Wilson/Fields, or not even taking a QB. Did MIA possibly hint to them that another team was targeting Jones at 3, and sucker them into the deal?

If Jones is their target, they have drastically overspent to get him.

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Some are speculating that San Francisco will take Trey Lance.  The first argument is that SF wouldn't trade that high unless they knew they had their guy.  Fields' pro day is next week.  If he's their target, wouldn't they wait until after that to see how he did before making the trade?  Also, San Francisco is saying that they plan to keep Jimmy Garoppolo as their starter in 2021 despite having a high salary.  Some are interpreting this as a sign they are taking the developmental quarterback, Trey Lance, and will need an experienced quarterback until he's ready.  Would you keep Garoppolo and his $26 million cap hit if you were drafting Fields?  

On the other hand, maybe San Francisco likes Fields enough that they are confident about his pro-day.  They could also just be saying that they are keeping Garoppolo as a strategy to drive up his trade value.

....would you trade three firsts for a guy who isn't ready?

WOOF.

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Bullseye, this trade has me completely dumbfounded!

I can see only two explanations that would make this a good move but I see both as extremely unlikely;

49ers have some inside info that the Jets are really happy with Darnold and think they will pick someone other than Wilson.
Or,
They have everyone completely fooled and are moving up to get a non-QB

In my opinion, and I am no GM or amazing player evaluator but there is not chance I trade away all that capitol for any other QB other than TLaw or Wilson and that’s a push for the latter.

I think Wilson would be the happy accident of a consolation prize should someone move up to 2 or the Jets stay and take the player originally planned in their trade up to 3. 

It has to be a QB.

I don't think anyone is trading 3 first-round picks for a WR (take your pick, Chase, Waddle, Smith) or Pitts or Sewell (just signed Trent to multi-year deal). I agree wholeheartedly that the only player I might consider trading 3 firsts for this year would be TLaw, but I would question if John Lynch has an opium habit if he expects TLaw to be there at 3. Even in that situation, I don't see any reason to do the deal until you know who is there at 3, unless it's someone you're sure is going to be there. You just better pray they're not the next Trubisky.

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I still would put Trey Lance as the favorite for reasons that I previously stated.  Fields would be next.  They might have made the trade prior to his pro day for fear that some other team might trade into the #3 spot if they waited.  They might also have thought that a successful pro day by Fields would raise the cost of trading up.  If someone doesn't like Lance or Fields, I can understand it, but I still have trouble seeing the 49ers giving up all of that draft capital for Mac Jones.  I would put the order of likelihood as:
  
1.  Trey Lance
2.  Justin Fields
3.  Mac Jones
  
What order would you put?

I would list the order identically.

I just wanted to relay that particular speculation.

There are those who trash the 49ers for paying so much.  I'm not sure if I am among them yet.

To me, if you are certain you don't have the guy at QB, you have to do what's necessary to get that guy.  This was a team that almost won the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. 

Last year they were beset by injuries.

If they are healthy this year, the 49ers could easily have a winning season at least, which would put the first round pick they gave up at the bottom of the round.  If they hit on their QB choice, whomever that may be, they should be towards the bottom of the draft order for a while, mitigating the true cost of the trade.

The problem with going that far in when you go all in?

First, if the guy they covet flops, they are in deep doodoo and either need to overpay in FA or trade even more darft capital to get a guy to replace him.
Second, if Trent begins to show his age or gets hurt, they're not going to have a chance at a top tackle in the near future to protect the guy they just sold the farm for. Unless, of course they overpay in FA or trade picks.

If the guy pans out, is there anyone out there dumb enough to trade for Garoppolo's 24M salary for each of the next two seasons? He's affordable to cut, but I don't think they have enough room to afford converting his salary to signing bonus and then shopping him as an affordable QB to another team.

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God, yes.  It's great watching these other teams battling it out for players, knowing we don't have to do anything.

The 49ers traded three (3) first round picks and a 3rd round pick just to get up to pick #3.

Think about that.

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With Detroit losing Golladay, Jones, and Amendola I see know way they can pass on Devante Smith in that scenario.  If they do they will regret it and I really like Parsons.

FWIW, I was kinda iffy on Parsons to Detroit.  I put him there in part because of his 40 time at his Pro Day, and Detroit has a need at LB.

I could easily see them going Devonta Smith.

My take a month before the draft is if the Lions remain in the pick # 7 spot, the selection will be of the following players:

1. WR Ja'Marr Chase
2. WR De'Vonta Smith
3. WR Jaylen Waddle
4. TE Kyle Pitts ( if the projection is primarily as a WR )
5. T Penei Sewell ( he would start at RT or RG as a rookie. ). 
6.  LB Micah Parsons

Because of everything that has transpired since the Lions acquired Jared Goff from the LA Rams as part of the Matthew Stafford trade, I am now of the opinion that at most, there's only a 10 % chance the Lions will draft a QB with the pick # 7 draft resources. That includes trading up or down from pick # 7. 

In all of the many years that the Lions have picked in the top 10, I can't recall a draft that as many as 6 players seem like realistic possibilities as the selection.  I'm hoping Ja'Marr Chase falls to # 7 for the Lions to at least have the option of taking him.   

Between 2 and 5 QBs are going to be drafted with the top 6 picks. With at least 3 very likely.  With 4 more likely than not. 

Other than the Jaguars drafting QB Trevor Lawrence with pick # 1, the 49ers drafting a QB with pick # 3 ( or if they trade with the Jets to move up to pick # 2 ), and the Bengals staying at # 5 ( taking a T or WR ( Kyle Pitts included ),  the top part of the draft can go in many different directions.

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