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Experts mock draft thread

#1
(This post was last modified: 01-19-2022, 10:15 AM by Upper. Edited 2 times in total.)

I feel like we should have a thread to keep the 'expert' mock drafts updated. I'll start with Dane Brugler's awful mock 2.0 from the athletic this morning. 

https://theathletic.com/3075920/2022/01/...surprises/

[b]1. Jacksonville Jaguars — Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State[/b]
After numerous conversations with NFL scouts and league execs in preparation for this mock, there were two key takeaways that led me to Ekwonu here. First, there are several evaluators around the league who have Ekwonu ranked higher than Alabama’s Evan Neal and Mississippi State’s Charles Cross. Second, several evaluators agreed that in a draft class missing a no-brainer top prospect, they prefer the tackles over the pass rushers. I have no clue how the Jaguars feel, but Ekwonu at least belongs in this conversation.
A three-year starter at NC State, Ekwonu has impressive movements for his size and generates extraordinary explosion at contact. He lacks refinement and is guilty of over-setting, but he is nimble, powerful and should get better and better as his technique and awareness mature. Ekwonu’s tape shows a tackle who can also play guard, not the other way around. For more on Ekwonu, this deep dive from Bruce Feldman is a great read.


[b]SECOND ROUND[/b]
33. Jacksonville Jaguars — Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida111111
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#2

Wow. That's horrendous.
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#3

And here's Kiper with his mock 1.0 also posted this morning. Not looking great for the good guys so far...

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft20...akobe-dean

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan

At this time last year, the Jags were starting a rebuild under a new coach and ... they're back at the same spot. Urban Meyer didn't even last a full season. I wrote last January that this wasn't going to be a quick fix, and they're not much closer to contending, hence back-to-back No. 1 picks. I do think they have their quarterback, even though Trevor Lawrence had a mostly abysmal rookie season.

So if the Jaguars get first dibs on any prospect in this draft, I'd go with Hutchinson; I have him ranked slightly ahead of Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux. Hutchinson, who finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting, is a dominant and consistent pass-rusher who can put up double-digit sacks as a rookie. He's a safe No. 1 pick. They can play him on the other side of Josh Allen, who is a really nice player. Now, there could be some talk about the Jags taking a left tackle here, but I'm not buying that over the value of having a truly great edge rusher. Yes, left tackle might be more of a "need," but they should take the best prospect, not fill the biggest need.
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#4

(01-19-2022, 10:33 AM)Upper Wrote: And here's Kiper with his mock 1.0 also posted this morning. Not looking great for the good guys so far...

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft20...akobe-dean

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan

At this time last year, the Jags were starting a rebuild under a new coach and ... they're back at the same spot. Urban Meyer didn't even last a full season. I wrote last January that this wasn't going to be a quick fix, and they're not much closer to contending, hence back-to-back No. 1 picks. I do think they have their quarterback, even though Trevor Lawrence had a mostly abysmal rookie season.

So if the Jaguars get first dibs on any prospect in this draft, I'd go with Hutchinson; I have him ranked slightly ahead of Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux. Hutchinson, who finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting, is a dominant and consistent pass-rusher who can put up double-digit sacks as a rookie. He's a safe No. 1 pick. They can play him on the other side of Josh Allen, who is a really nice player. Now, there could be some talk about the Jags taking a left tackle here, but I'm not buying that over the value of having a truly great edge rusher. Yes, left tackle might be more of a "need," but they should take the best prospect, not fill the biggest need.
Hutch would be a great pick on helping take this defense to another level
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#5

He looks like TJ Watt to me with his quickness, strength, motor, and the way he uses his hands
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#6

Honestly, Thibs, Hutch, Neal or even Ekwonu would help this team as compared to what we already have in-house. The question that needs to be decided on is which one would help the most. S, CB and even WR in the top ten of prospects do not rise to the level of first pick for me. Having said that, I feel the best move would be to trade down but stay in the top ten if possible. Then every position of need opens up imo, even ILB. So we could then pick from OL, Edge, CB, S, WR or ILB whoever is BAP at that point while also filling a need and having gained additional picks.
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#7

The more mock drafts I see, the more I feel that finding a trade-back partner is going to be critical. My hope is that some player, likely a quarterback, will shine at the Senior Bowl and Combine. The sweet spot in this draft will be in round 2. The Jets are loaded with 4 picks in the top 38. Although they aren't in need of a quarterback, they may want to move up to get their favorite pass rusher and still having pick 10 to get a cornerback like Gardner. The Jaguars then have picks 4, 33, 35 and 38. Some of the potential steals in this range include Pickens, McBride, Cameron Thomas and Darrian Kinnard. All 4 of these players have very high ceilings yet may be available in round 2 due to previous injury (Pickens), level of competition (McBride and Thomas) or position (Kinnard- guards tend to drop). Add in whoever the Jags select with pick 4 and this draft is already a winner with 2 more picks high in round 3. I honestly don't care what position they take with that high pick, but they can certainly get a great player.
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#8
(This post was last modified: 01-19-2022, 01:35 PM by Caldrac.)

(01-19-2022, 12:00 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: The more mock drafts I see, the more I feel that finding a trade-back partner is going to be critical. My hope is that some player, likely a quarterback, will shine at the Senior Bowl and Combine. The sweet spot in this draft will be in round 2. The Jets are loaded with 4 picks in the top 38. Although they aren't in need of a quarterback, they may want to move up to get their favorite pass rusher and still having pick 10 to get a cornerback like Gardner. The Jaguars then have picks 4, 33, 35 and 38. Some of the potential steals in this range include Pickens, McBride, Cameron Thomas and Darrian Kinnard. All 4 of these players have very high ceilings yet may be available in round 2 due to previous injury (Pickens), level of competition (McBride and Thomas) or position (Kinnard- guards tend to drop). Add in whoever the Jags select with pick 4 and this draft is already a winner with 2 more picks high in round 3. I honestly don't care what position they take with that high pick, but they can certainly get a great player.

Agreed. 110%.

(01-19-2022, 11:32 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: He looks like TJ Watt  to me with his quickness, strength,  motor, and the way he uses his hands

He reminds me of Jared Allen. I just worry if he's a one hit wonder or if this is just the beginning of his potential. He really didn't have much to show on the stat sheet due to injury and lack of playing time prior to 2021.

(01-19-2022, 10:14 AM)Upper Wrote: I feel like we should have a thread to keep the 'expert' mock drafts updated. I'll start with Dane Brugler's awful mock 2.0 from the athletic this morning. 

https://theathletic.com/3075920/2022/01/...surprises/

[b]1. Jacksonville Jaguars — Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State[/b]
After numerous conversations with NFL scouts and league execs in preparation for this mock, there were two key takeaways that led me to Ekwonu here. First, there are several evaluators around the league who have Ekwonu ranked higher than Alabama’s Evan Neal and Mississippi State’s Charles Cross. Second, several evaluators agreed that in a draft class missing a no-brainer top prospect, they prefer the tackles over the pass rushers. I have no clue how the Jaguars feel, but Ekwonu at least belongs in this conversation.
A three-year starter at NC State, Ekwonu has impressive movements for his size and generates extraordinary explosion at contact. He lacks refinement and is guilty of over-setting, but he is nimble, powerful and should get better and better as his technique and awareness mature. Ekwonu’s tape shows a tackle who can also play guard, not the other way around. For more on Ekwonu, this deep dive from Bruce Feldman is a great read.


[b]SECOND ROUND[/b]
33. Jacksonville Jaguars — Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida111111

I would call out sick from work two days in a row if this went down. Then, I would package my dog's [BLEEP] up in a bag and leave it at Baalke's front door after lighting it on fire and ringing the door bell.
[Image: 4SXW6gC.png]

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."
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#9

Hutch compares to TJ Watt? Please give me some of whatever you are smoking please that's the good stuff.
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#10
(This post was last modified: 01-19-2022, 02:22 PM by flgatorsandjags. Edited 1 time in total.)

(01-19-2022, 02:10 PM)Upper Wrote: Hutch compares to TJ Watt? Please give me some of whatever you are smoking please that's the good stuff.

Yes, the way he plays and the way he was dominating this past season.  Watt was actually a late 1st round pick coming out. Funny how quick a couple tweets will change your mind about the player. You was wanting him 1st overall just a couple short weeks ago.
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#11
(This post was last modified: 01-19-2022, 02:34 PM by Upper. Edited 1 time in total.)

(01-19-2022, 02:20 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: Yes, the way he plays and the way he was dominating this past season.  Watt was actually a late 1st round pick coming out. Funny how quick a couple tweets will change your mind about the player. You was wanting him 1st overall just a couple short weeks ago.

Yeah I didn't watch much Michigan during the regular season, I formed too much of my opinion based on cherry picked clips and his reported 6.54 3 cone in the freaks list...and I even said at the time there is no way he actually does the 3 cone that fast and I was very much looking forward to seeing him run it at the combine and/or pro day.

Then the bowl game happened and I watched a guy show very little burst and who turned the corner like a semi truck. I also hated that he was a long strider and was frequently pushed off balance at the point of contact.

As I have also said he is strong and has very good hands with a relentless motor so I think he will be a good player, just not a special player like I think Thibs will be.

I still have no clue how you can compare him to TJ though. They comp almost nothing alike except for the melanin department.
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#12
(This post was last modified: 01-19-2022, 02:49 PM by flgatorsandjags. Edited 1 time in total.)

(01-19-2022, 02:32 PM)Upper Wrote:
(01-19-2022, 02:20 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: Yes, the way he plays and the way he was dominating this past season.  Watt was actually a late 1st round pick coming out.  Funny how quick a couple tweets will change your mind about the player.  You was wanting him 1st overall just a couple short weeks ago.

Yeah I didn't watch much Michigan during the regular season, I formed too much of my opinion based on cherry picked clips and his reported 6.54 3 cone in the freaks list...and I even said at the time there is no way he actually does the 3 cone that fast and I was very much looking forward to seeing him run it at the combine and/or pro day.

Then the bowl game happened and I watched a guy show very little burst and who turned the corner like a semi truck. I also hated that he was a long strider and was frequently pushed off balance at the point of contact.

As I have also said he is strong and has very good hands with a relentless motor so I think he will be a good player, just not a special player like I think Thibs will be.

I still have no clue how you can compare him to TJ though. They comp almost nothing alike except for the melanin department.
I just googled Hutch and Watt to see if anything popped up.  A coach who coached both actually compares the 2 lol

https://www.on3.com/teams/michigan-wolve...-harbaugh/

To say he has very little burst and that he turns the corner like a semi truck is comical . Every year you let those tweets get you lol
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#13

We'll see how his jumps and 3 cone go during testing, I bet he disappoints in both. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he completely skips the 3 cone like Kwity did and just rests on the legendary and all but guaranteed false hype from Michigan.
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#14

(01-19-2022, 10:14 AM)Upper Wrote: I feel like we should have a thread to keep the 'expert' mock drafts updated. I'll start with Dane Brugler's awful mock 2.0 from the athletic this morning. 

https://theathletic.com/3075920/2022/01/...surprises/

[b]1. Jacksonville Jaguars — Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State[/b]
After numerous conversations with NFL scouts and league execs in preparation for this mock, there were two key takeaways that led me to Ekwonu here. First, there are several evaluators around the league who have Ekwonu ranked higher than Alabama’s Evan Neal and Mississippi State’s Charles Cross. Second, several evaluators agreed that in a draft class missing a no-brainer top prospect, they prefer the tackles over the pass rushers. I have no clue how the Jaguars feel, but Ekwonu at least belongs in this conversation.
A three-year starter at NC State, Ekwonu has impressive movements for his size and generates extraordinary explosion at contact. He lacks refinement and is guilty of over-setting, but he is nimble, powerful and should get better and better as his technique and awareness mature. Ekwonu’s tape shows a tackle who can also play guard, not the other way around. For more on Ekwonu, this deep dive from Bruce Feldman is a great read.


[b]SECOND ROUND[/b]
33. Jacksonville Jaguars — Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida111111

Worst possible scenario.
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#16

Would you guys give up 1 and 33 for 5 and 7?
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#17

(01-20-2022, 03:39 PM)JagsFanClubOfMD Wrote: Would you guys give up 1 and 33 for 5 and 7?

No I wouldn't
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#18

(01-20-2022, 03:39 PM)JagsFanClubOfMD Wrote: Would you guys give up 1 and 33 for 5 and 7?

No.
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#19

If we're taking Thibs, no. If we were taking anyone else, absolutely.
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#20
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2022, 04:20 PM by Cleatwood. Edited 1 time in total.)

What’s best case for 1 and 33? Thibs and Dotson?

At 5 and 7, they could take 2 players from: one of the 3 tackles, Ojabo, London, Hamilton, Karlaftis, Wilson, Linderbaum.

Kinda leaning 5 and 7.
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