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Travis Etienne - Rd1, Pick 25

(This post was last modified: 02-20-2022, 11:04 PM by flgatorsandjags.)

Sewell is one of the best tackle prospects to come out in some time, dude got a vote to win the Heisman and he even admitted how difficult it was to switch. Just because one of the best tackle prospects in recent memory can play either tackle spot doesn't mean anyone can
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I remember those quotes and our posts about it at the time. He said harder, but if you read the context he clearly meant that it took longer than he expected, which is readily admitted. He was also knocking off the rust from sitting out the entire season on top of the position switch so it makes perfect sense that it would take him even longer than usual. But just like everyone else he wound up figuring it out and became elite after switching.
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(02-20-2022, 07:29 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote:
(02-20-2022, 01:32 PM)Bullseye Wrote: But if you evaluate them properly and still draft them high, you aren't wasting draft capital (Derrick Henry, Adrian Peterson, Jonathan Taylor).  You are far more apt to get a quality RB in the first three rounds of the draft than you are UDFA.

Prove me wrong.

Sure, you get a quality running back, maybe. And those you named have how many championships between them? The difference between a great running back and a serviceable running back in the NFL is negligible and rarely does the running back make a difference in winning a championship. Just look at the last two Super Bowl winners, Tampa and the Rams had backs that they drafted high (Jones, Akers) that were supplanted by guys that were either claimed off the street or traded for late round picks. This isn't the '60s or even the '90s anymore, running backs are almost fungible commodities in the modern game.

First, my list was in no way designed to be an all inclusive list, just long enough to illustrate that a RB picked in the top three rounds of a draft isn't necessarily wasted draft capital.

But if winning a championship is the criteria to determine whether a pick on a RB is a wasted one, then you have to acknowledgethe numerous Rbs taken in the first three rounds of the draft that have won championships like:
Jim Taylor and Paul Hornung (SB I & II and other NFL championships)
Matt Snell (III)
Norm Bulaich (V)
Duane Thomas and Calvin Hill (VI)
Larry Csonka and Mercury Morris (VII and VIII)
Mark Van Eeghen (XI)
Franco Harris (SB IX, X, XIII, XIV)
Walter Payton (XX)
Tony Dorsett (XII)
Marcus Allen (XVIII)
Roger Craig (XIX, XXIII, XXIV)
Emmitt Smith (XXVII, XXVIII, XXX)
Ricky Watters (XXIX)
Marshall Faulk (drafted in the first round by the Colts, but won a title with the Rams who traded at least a 2nd round pick to get him; XXXIV)
Jamal Lewis (XXXV)
Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott (XXXVII)
Jerome Bettis (orig drafted by the Rams but traded to Steelers for 2nd and 4th round pick; XL)
Joseph Addai (XLI)
Rashad Mendenhall (XLIII)
Reggie Bush (XLIV)
Ray Rice (XLVII)
Shane Vereen (XLIX)
Sony Michel (LIII)
Ronald Jones (LV)
Darell Henderson (LVI)

By my count, that's 26 RBs drafted in the 3rd round or higher that have won a combined 40 Super Bowls between them.

Keep in mind, this doesn't incude RBs drafted below the 4th round (Terrell Davis).  Nor does this include RBs originally drafted in the 3rd round or higher who were not traded but won a Super bowl with a subsequent team (John Riggins, Ottis Anderson, Marshawn Lynch).

I welcome you to compile a more extensive list of UDFA RBs who were key contributors to Super Bowl championship teams.

I'll even spot you Willie Parker.

That aside, I submit your paradigm of winning a championship being a prerequisite for not wasting a draft pick on a RB to be extreme, considering such a standard would render the following players to be wasted picks:

Gale Sayers
Chuck Foreman
Earl Campbell
Eric Dickerson
William Andrews
James Brooks
Bo Jackson
Barry Sanders
Adrian Peterson
LaDanian Tomlinson
Fred Taylor
MJD
Eddie George
Chris Johnson
Derrick Henry
Thurman Thomas
Curtis Martin
Shaun Alexander
Edgerrin James
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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(02-20-2022, 11:15 PM)Upper Wrote: I remember those quotes and our posts about it at the time. He said harder, but if you read the context he clearly meant that it took longer than he expected, which is readily admitted. He was also knocking off the rust from sitting out the entire season on top of the position switch so it makes perfect sense that it would take him even longer than usual. But just like everyone else he wound up figuring it out and became elite after switching.

God, I wish he would've stayed in school and entered the draft this year. He would undoubtedly be our #1 overall pick.
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(This post was last modified: 02-21-2022, 06:59 AM by The Real Marty. Edited 1 time in total.)

Here are some of the teams other than Jacksonville who have spent first round picks on running backs:

2021: Pittsburg
2020: Kansas City
2019: Oakland
2018: New England, Seattle, NY Giants
2017: Carolina

So, if you think RBs are a dime a dozen and you shouldn't waste a draft pick on one, Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Mike Tomlin, and Pete Carroll disagree, even to the extent of spending a first round pick on one. 

The whole idea that one shouldn't spend a draft pick on any particular position defies logic.  Every position is important, and if you have a hole, the best way to fill it is to pick the player you want, not just wait and see what's left over undrafted.
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(02-21-2022, 06:57 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: Here are some of the teams other than Jacksonville who have spent first round picks on running backs:

2021: Pittsburg
2020: Kansas City
2019: Oakland
2018: New England, Seattle, NY Giants
2017: Carolina

So, if you think RBs are a dime a dozen and you shouldn't waste a draft pick on one, Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Mike Tomlin, and Pete Carroll disagree, even to the extent of spending a first round pick on one. 

The whole idea that one shouldn't spend a draft pick on any particular position defies logic.  Every position is important, and if you have a hole, the best way to fill it is to pick the player you want, not just wait and see what's left over undrafted.
Agreed
Tampa, Denver, Bal, Buf Chi. have done it  If the RB is the best player on the board you take him if you need one.  Whether it be 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc.
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(02-20-2022, 11:58 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(02-20-2022, 11:43 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: The biggest asset to any RB is a good O-Line. If we maintain the OT positions by franchising Cam and having him compete with Little for the LT position with the loser moving to RT and Taylor getting cut, we could use free agency and the draft to upgrade the interior O-Line. Then I believe we could get away with having a really good UDFA as a starting RB until Etienne or Robinson are ready to play. This draft is absolutely loaded with really good RB's. Twice as many as will be drafted. There will be very, very good runners who will be waiting for calls from NFL teams after the draft has concluded. Teams are placing less emphasis on the RB position. Combine that with the sheer numbers of good college RB's who enter the draft early and you have a logjam of talent at a position that is already saturated with good players.

Cam might not want to play RT, hes always been a LT.  What if Little beats him out and Cam says he doesn't want to play RT?

@trade him for an RB@
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(02-20-2022, 01:32 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(02-20-2022, 11:40 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: Clearly you can't depend on it by wasting high draft capital on them either then.

But if you evaluate them properly and still draft them high, you aren't wasting draft capital (Derrick Henry, Adrian Peterson, Jonathan Taylor).  You are far more apt to get a quality RB in the first three rounds of the draft than you are UDFA.

Prove me wrong.

2021 Chiefs? CEH was outrushed by a UDFA and had 130yds more than Mahomes. Wink 

Personally I find the sweet spot for value to be rounds 3-4. Obviously you're not going to get a Henry or Peterson to fall that far. But, taking RBs early is going to put an expectation on many that may be unattainable. For example, the Giants are 19-46 since taking Barkley second. Was (Is?) he worth it?
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(02-20-2022, 06:33 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(02-20-2022, 06:02 PM)CanDoBetter Wrote: Why would you pay someone more than $16M if you're not even sure he's the starter? What's more, you're saying Little was a bust by doing so.

What are you talking about? He would be a starter either at LT or RT. Both Robinson and Little would be starters. It would just be up in the air as to what position they would be starting at. That would be determined in camp and the preseason. You keep the 2 best options at OT and that is Robinson and Little.

How far into camp/preseason does this competition run? In the meantime, what are you doing at RT? Playing the other? Taylor?

Doug has plenty of time now to watch game film to evaluate whether either guy has what he wants to play at LT next year. He even has some footage of Little at RT to know what to expect if he shuffles the lineup.

Do you go into week 1 with your RT having two weeks of position-specific play under his belt? Remember the uproar over Urbz' QB competition last fall? Make a choice based on what you know, stand by it, and let your players develop expertise where you want them.

I don't think that they offer Cam a rich deal or tag him if his prospect is as RT.
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(This post was last modified: 02-21-2022, 11:19 AM by Upper. Edited 1 time in total.)

(02-21-2022, 06:57 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: Here are some of the teams other than Jacksonville who have spent first round picks on running backs:

2021: Pittsburg
2020: Kansas City
2019: Oakland
2018: New England, Seattle, NY Giants
2017: Carolina

So, if you think RBs are a dime a dozen and you shouldn't waste a draft pick on one, Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Mike Tomlin, and Pete Carroll disagree, even to the extent of spending a first round pick on one. 

The whole idea that one shouldn't spend a draft pick on any particular position defies logic.  Every position is important, and if you have a hole, the best way to fill it is to pick the player you want, not just wait and see what's left over undrafted.

Lol, and they're pretty much all regretting it. Najee was very inefficient and is going to be even worse after getting almost 400 touches, CEH has been awful, Jacobs has been decent but not nearly worth a 1st, Barkley is a bust, Penny LOL, Michel has had a few moments but mostly bust.

McCaffrey was awesome, but is already hurt more often than not, didn't help the team win, and they are already seriously regretting giving him his huge second contract...which is a major reason why you don't want to draft 1st round RBs. You get them for 4-5 years and then you instantly regret it when it comes contract time.
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(02-21-2022, 11:13 AM)Mikey Wrote:
(02-20-2022, 06:33 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: What are you talking about? He would be a starter either at LT or RT. Both Robinson and Little would be starters. It would just be up in the air as to what position they would be starting at. That would be determined in camp and the preseason. You keep the 2 best options at OT and that is Robinson and Little.

How far into camp/preseason does this competition run? In the meantime, what are you doing at RT? Playing the other? Taylor?

Doug has plenty of time now to watch game film to evaluate whether either guy has what he wants to play at LT next year. He even has some footage of Little at RT to know what to expect if he shuffles the lineup.

Do you go into week 1 with your RT having two weeks of position-specific play under his belt? Remember the uproar over Urbz' QB competition last fall? Make a choice based on what you know, stand by it, and let your players develop expertise where you want them.

I don't think that they offer Cam a rich deal or tag him if his prospect is as RT.

How long will the competition last? Until I see a clear winner. As far as RT goes, I don't know how much clearer I can be. The competition for the LT spot is between Robinson and Little. The loser moves to starting RT. Taylor is gone, regardless. 

I believe that this O-Line can get a lot better now that the detriment known as George Warhop is gone. Let the new staff work with these OT's a few weeks and see how much they improve. Then you make the decision as to which OT plays LT and RT. There is no need to rush this thing. The season just ended. Let's do our due diligence. 

You are assuming Cam would go straight to RT before the competition starts. Robinson held off Little for the LT spot last season, maybe it happens again. I don't know. Lets see how things play out. Would it be so bad if Robinson starts at LT and Little starts out playing RT in 2022? I don't think so. Why do so many people act like it's the end of the world if Little isn't installed at LT right away? IMO, he didn't play enough last season to prove that he is an NFL LT. That's what I want to find out this season via an open competition for the starting LT spot.
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(02-20-2022, 10:23 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote:
(02-20-2022, 09:54 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: Nope, we have at least 12 positions more difficult to fill for this team including Receiver, Tight End, every line position on both sides of the ball and every LB spot except for Josh Allen's. Running backs are a dime a dozen.

Any position is a dime a dozen if you want people who suck.  If you want a top running back, they aren't.  If you look at the top 10 rushers from last year, below is the breakdown of where they were originally drafted:

1st Round:  2
2nd Round: 5
3rd Round:  2
4th Round:  0
5th Round:  0
6th Round:  1
7th Round:  0
UDFA:  0

In summary, 7 out of the top 10 were drafted in the first two rounds.  9 out of the top 10 were drafted in the first 3 rounds.  You may not need a first rounder, but if you wait until the 4th round or later in the draft, your odds of finding a top running back goes down significantly.

You could also say that the teams that take RB that early are feeding them the ball a lot more than teams that spend later picks on RB. I don't think anyone in this discussion is advocating for us to darft a franchise RB or expect 1300 yards out of a mid-to-late RB (or UDFA, for that matter). Or, how many RB taken in the first or second fail to escalate into the top ten each year?

If we take a guy in the fourth or fifth to share load with the guy who is recovered from a lisfranc injury, or the guy recovering from a torn achilles, I don't really expect either one to break 1k, the darft pick or the RB already on the roster. And if you think any team signs a UDFA and expects that guy to be top ten across the league, well, your GM is delusional.

Look at what NE did last year - took a guy in the 4th, their feature back hit about 900, the rook about 600. I'll take 1500 across two guys every dang season. One gets hurt, the other is still there to take up the slack. That's what I'm gunning for. Not a feature back, not a redefinition of our offensive scheme, just someone who is going to capably handle a share of the workload.
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(02-21-2022, 11:30 AM)Mikey Wrote: That's what I'm gunning for. Not a feature back, not a redefinition of our offensive scheme, just someone who is going to capably handle a share of the workload.

Having two of the franchises 3 or 4 best offensive players be RBs has really skewed how our fanbase thinks about the position. It's the least important position in the sport, but it's treated like royalty here.
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Yeah I don’t think drafting a running back in the first round is a good idea unless they are a once a generation back. However, I’m still hopefully regarding what Etienne can be.
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(02-21-2022, 11:27 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: You are assuming Cam would go straight to RT before the competition starts. Robinson held off Little for the LT spot last season, maybe it happens again. I don't know. Lets see how things play out. Would it be so bad if Robinson starts at LT and Little starts out playing RT in 2022? I don't think so. Why do so many people act like it's the end of the world if Little isn't installed at LT right away? IMO, he didn't play enough last season to prove that he is an NFL LT. That's what I want to find out this season via an open competition for the starting LT spot.

I don't know that anyone could say that with any confidence, given Urbz' apprehension to play any freshmen rookies early on.

I agree that Little's evaluation is incomplete; in spite of that, I can't tag a guy who might be good enough to outplay him at the spot. And if this competition drags into preseason, you have to play someone at RT - you're either playing the other competitor, Taylor, or paid someone else to come in and fill the spot. Flip-flopping guys is going to skew the evaluation (either one is blocking second stringers, not as fresh as the guy who started the game at the spot), or the inconsistency proves detrimental to evaluating the other players on the field. If TLaw is getting hammered by a turnstile holding down RT while the LT competition settles itself, you're doing a disservice to the rest of the team.

We criticize our owner for being indecisive or at the very least passive in his decision-making, but advocate that the head coach take this same approach? Evaluate, decide, and move forward.
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(02-21-2022, 11:46 AM)Mikey Wrote:
(02-21-2022, 11:27 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: You are assuming Cam would go straight to RT before the competition starts. Robinson held off Little for the LT spot last season, maybe it happens again. I don't know. Lets see how things play out. Would it be so bad if Robinson starts at LT and Little starts out playing RT in 2022? I don't think so. Why do so many people act like it's the end of the world if Little isn't installed at LT right away? IMO, he didn't play enough last season to prove that he is an NFL LT. That's what I want to find out this season via an open competition for the starting LT spot.

I don't know that anyone could say that with any confidence, given Urbz' apprehension to play any freshmen rookies early on.

I agree that Little's evaluation is incomplete; in spite of that, I can't tag a guy who might be good enough to outplay him at the spot. And if this competition drags into preseason, you have to play someone at RT - you're either playing the other competitor, Taylor, or paid someone else to come in and fill the spot. Flip-flopping guys is going to skew the evaluation (either one is blocking second stringers, not as fresh as the guy who started the game at the spot), or the inconsistency proves detrimental to evaluating the other players on the field. If TLaw is getting hammered by a turnstile holding down RT while the LT competition settles itself, you're doing a disservice to the rest of the team.

We criticize our owner for being indecisive or at the very least passive in his decision-making, but advocate that the head coach take this same approach? Evaluate, decide, and move forward.

Yeah - any rookies that didn't see the field last year prior to the interim coach appointment can't really be analyzed as "beaten" for the start or snaps. 

Safer to assume mismanagement from Meyer and Company.

Little and Cisco seem blatantly obvious examples of Meyer not knowing jack [BLEEP] about his roster.
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(This post was last modified: 02-21-2022, 12:13 PM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(02-21-2022, 11:46 AM)Mikey Wrote:
(02-21-2022, 11:27 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: You are assuming Cam would go straight to RT before the competition starts. Robinson held off Little for the LT spot last season, maybe it happens again. I don't know. Lets see how things play out. Would it be so bad if Robinson starts at LT and Little starts out playing RT in 2022? I don't think so. Why do so many people act like it's the end of the world if Little isn't installed at LT right away? IMO, he didn't play enough last season to prove that he is an NFL LT. That's what I want to find out this season via an open competition for the starting LT spot.

I don't know that anyone could say that with any confidence, given Urbz' apprehension to play any freshmen rookies early on.

I agree that Little's evaluation is incomplete; in spite of that, I can't tag a guy who might be good enough to outplay him at the spot. And if this competition drags into preseason, you have to play someone at RT - you're either playing the other competitor, Taylor, or paid someone else to come in and fill the spot. Flip-flopping guys is going to skew the evaluation (either one is blocking second stringers, not as fresh as the guy who started the game at the spot), or the inconsistency proves detrimental to evaluating the other players on the field. If TLaw is getting hammered by a turnstile holding down RT while the LT competition settles itself, you're doing a disservice to the rest of the team.

We criticize our owner for being indecisive or at the very least passive in his decision-making, but advocate that the head coach take this same approach? Evaluate, decide, and move forward.

I can easily tag Robinson knowing that this year's draft class at OT is nothing short of a "crapfest", anticipating that we're probably not gonna get any premier FA O-Linemen and knowing that we have a ton of cap money. You make the moves that give you the best chance to win and I truly believe tagging Robinson and having him compete with Little, gives us the best chance to have a decent OT duo. Is it perfect? Of course not, but given the alternative, at least we are replacing Taylor with a significant upgrade no matter which player moves to RT. This doesn't deter us from looking for another OT in the middle rounds of the draft. We still do that, but it doesn't paint us into a corner where we have to start that unproven rookie right away. 

Lawrence is already getting hammered by a turnstile at RT and his name is Jawaan Taylor. This is what I'm trying to upgrade. 

No, you're advocating rushing the process with no evaluation what so ever. You'd be basing things off of a very small sample size of what Little did in relief last season and the poor coaching these O-Linemen have had for years under Warhop. To me, that's crazy! The season just ended a week ago and and you're ready to make decisions for next year before any moves have been made, players have been drafted or our current players have even gotten a chance to have one practice with the new staff. There is a huge difference between taking camp and preseason to evaluate OT's and the owner dragging his feet on hiring an EVP when the Combine, free agency and draft are only weeks away. It's not even in the same area code.

(02-21-2022, 12:00 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(02-21-2022, 11:46 AM)Mikey Wrote: I don't know that anyone could say that with any confidence, given Urbz' apprehension to play any freshmen rookies early on.

I agree that Little's evaluation is incomplete; in spite of that, I can't tag a guy who might be good enough to outplay him at the spot. And if this competition drags into preseason, you have to play someone at RT - you're either playing the other competitor, Taylor, or paid someone else to come in and fill the spot. Flip-flopping guys is going to skew the evaluation (either one is blocking second stringers, not as fresh as the guy who started the game at the spot), or the inconsistency proves detrimental to evaluating the other players on the field. If TLaw is getting hammered by a turnstile holding down RT while the LT competition settles itself, you're doing a disservice to the rest of the team.

We criticize our owner for being indecisive or at the very least passive in his decision-making, but advocate that the head coach take this same approach? Evaluate, decide, and move forward.

Yeah - any rookies that didn't see the field last year prior to the interim coach appointment can't really be analyzed as "beaten" for the start or snaps. 

Safer to assume mismanagement from Meyer and Company.

Little and Cisco seem blatantly obvious examples of Meyer not knowing jack [BLEEP] about his roster.

I don't want to assume anything, which is why I want to have an open competition between Robinson and Little.
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The franchise tag deadline is in two short weeks. Considering that there is virtually no way we spend to the cap in free agency I hope the regime tags Cam out of due diligence since there is really no way for them to personally know whether or not he should be part of our future. I think Oehser hinted that he thinks the Jags will lean toward tagging Cam too.
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(02-21-2022, 12:28 PM)Upper Wrote: The franchise tag deadline is in two short weeks. Considering that there is virtually no way we spend to the cap in free agency I hope the regime tags Cam out of due diligence since there is really no way for them to personally know whether or not he should be part of our future. I think Oehser hinted that he thinks the Jags will lean toward tagging Cam too.

Tagging Cam is the smart thing to do.  We already are looking at filling a ton of holes.  Why create more?  He's serviceable.
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(02-21-2022, 12:11 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(02-21-2022, 11:46 AM)Mikey Wrote: I don't know that anyone could say that with any confidence, given Urbz' apprehension to play any freshmen rookies early on.

I agree that Little's evaluation is incomplete; in spite of that, I can't tag a guy who might be good enough to outplay him at the spot. And if this competition drags into preseason, you have to play someone at RT - you're either playing the other competitor, Taylor, or paid someone else to come in and fill the spot. Flip-flopping guys is going to skew the evaluation (either one is blocking second stringers, not as fresh as the guy who started the game at the spot), or the inconsistency proves detrimental to evaluating the other players on the field. If TLaw is getting hammered by a turnstile holding down RT while the LT competition settles itself, you're doing a disservice to the rest of the team.

We criticize our owner for being indecisive or at the very least passive in his decision-making, but advocate that the head coach take this same approach? Evaluate, decide, and move forward.

I can easily tag Robinson knowing that this year's draft class at OT is nothing short of a "crapfest", anticipating that we're probably not gonna get any premier FA O-Linemen and knowing that we have a ton of cap money. You make the moves that give you the best chance to win and I truly believe tagging Robinson and having him compete with Little, gives us the best chance to have a decent OT duo. Is it perfect? Of course not, but given the alternative, at least we are replacing Taylor with a significant upgrade no matter which player moves to RT. This doesn't deter us from looking for another OT in the middle rounds of the draft. We still do that, but it doesn't paint us into a corner where we have to start that unproven rookie right away. 

Lawrence is already getting hammered by a turnstile at RT and his name is Jawaan Taylor. This is what I'm trying to upgrade. 

No, you're advocating rushing the process with no evaluation what so ever. You'd be basing things off of a very small sample size of what Little did in relief last season and the poor coaching these O-Linemen have had for years under Warhop. To me, that's crazy! The season just ended a week ago and and you're ready to make decisions for next year before any moves have been made, players have been drafted or our current players have even gotten a chance to have one practice with the new staff. There is a huge difference between taking camp and preseason to evaluate OT's and the owner dragging his feet on hiring an EVP when the Combine, free agency and draft are only weeks away. It's not even in the same area code.

(02-21-2022, 12:00 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: Yeah - any rookies that didn't see the field last year prior to the interim coach appointment can't really be analyzed as "beaten" for the start or snaps. 

Safer to assume mismanagement from Meyer and Company.

Little and Cisco seem blatantly obvious examples of Meyer not knowing jack [BLEEP] about his roster.

I don't want to assume anything, which is why I want to have an open competition between Robinson and Little.

There's actually no assumption involved as to whether Meyer mishandled the roster in a dozen different ways. 

He did. 

Not playing Little was an obvious part of his blundering

I never suggested there shouldn't be a competition. That goes without saying for me. The only challenge is preparing your linemen to be ready to play wherever they end up being cast along the line. However the chips fall. 

I don't think that's as dramatic as some want to paint it, especially when the players are paid well - which we can afford.
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