Yes, I'd rather draft someone that is not a bust rather then draft a bust.

 

I still don't know why I wrote the post that way.

 

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I'm trying to make myself more informed and less opinionated.

Stop saying whatever stupid thing you're talking about and pay attention to all the interesting things I have to say!

You wont know if the QB is right or wrong if you dont draft them, it will be worst if we pass on QBs that turn out to be pro bowlers and draft avg players rather they are QBs or not. Gene Smith passed on Wilson, and traded up for Gabbert when guys like Dalton and Kap went in the 2nd round.

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<B><FONT color=cyan>Jags this is your year</FONT></B>

Great article on the topic of the 2011 ...err, 2014 QB class.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0ap200000...2011-class

 

"Tempting as it might be to take a quarterback in the first round, clubs can be prone to manufacturing franchise players at the position when they aren't really there. And this could be another one of those years where the draft class is exceptionally strong -- as it was in 2011, given that 12 of the top 16 picks already have gone on to make a Pro Bowl -- but with serious questions hovering over the top guys at the most important position."

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

Great article on the topic of the 2011 ...err, 2014 QB class.

<a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0ap2000000336297/article/2014-nfl-draft-quarterback-conundrum-harks-back-to-2011-class'>http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0ap2000000336297/article/2014-nfl-draft-quarterback-conundrum-harks-back-to-2011-class</a>


"Tempting as it might be to take a quarterback in the first round, clubs can be prone to manufacturing franchise players at the position when they aren't really there. And this could be another one of those years where the draft class is exceptionally strong -- as it was in 2011, given that 12 of the top 16 picks already have gone on to make a <a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.nfl.com/probowl'>Pro Bowl</a> -- but with serious questions hovering over the top guys at the most important position."

I doubt the Panthers regret taking Newton. I consider my self a big Newton fan and I'd say he is the 10th best QB in the league behind P. Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Luck, Big Ben, Wilson, Rivers and E. Manning. Arguments could also be made for Romo, Flacco, Ryan, Cutler and Stafford. Meanwhile, AJ Green is probably the 2nd best WR in the NFL, Patrick Peterson is a top 5 CB, Aldon Smith and Von Miller have been great pass rushers and JJ Watt has won a DPOY award. Would the Panthers really be better of with one of these players?

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That's only true if you force yourself to accept Dalton as your franchise QB.  There's no rule that you can't draft a QB in the 1st round if you have a QB.  I'd rather have the luxury of having a capable QB on the roster to waiting around for THE ONE and hope he either BOOMS IT or BUSTS.

 

Teams with an above average QB haven't historically drafted another one in the first round. They are stuck thinking "if he can just improve a bit more we will be set" but they never do. So they are stuck being mediocre. I would rather suck and rebuild than be mediocre.

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QB purgatory is the worst. 

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QB purgatory is the worst. 

 

No...  This is much worse

 

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No...  This is much worse

 

I disagree. We knew after less than two years that he wasn't the guy. We can move on and continue the search for a true franchise QB quickly.

 

orse is the Bengals being stuck in QB purgatory with Dalton. Waste 4 years of super bowl surrounding talent with nothing but one and done to show for it...and after next year they have a huge decision on whether to give him the dreaded franchise QB second contract that buried the Texans, Jets, Jaguars, etc. with the Schaub/Sanchez/Garrard deals. 

 

That is worse than busting with your pick and knowing it quickly. 

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No...  This is much worse

 

I miss those uni's and teal helmets

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I disagree. We knew after less than two years that he wasn't the guy. We can move on and continue the search for a true franchise QB quickly.

 

orse is the Bengals being stuck in QB purgatory with Dalton. Waste 4 years of super bowl surrounding talent with nothing but one and done to show for it...and after next year they have a huge decision on whether to give him the dreaded franchise QB second contract that buried the Texans, Jets, Jaguars, etc. with the Schaub/Sanchez/Garrard deals. 

 

That is worse than busting with your pick and knowing it quickly. 

 

Yeah I guess we just see it much differently.

 

They have 4 straight years of playoffs, whereas we are getting destroyed year in and year out.  

 

I would argue is that you still need 3 years to figure out whether the QB you picked is "your guy" which is basically how long it took us.  

 

I'd gladly take Dalton and 4 straight playoff appearances while I keep looking for that franchise QB.

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The more I read my OP, the more convinced I am that someone else wrote it after being on a Benadryl bender, but I'll do the best that I can to try and fix it.

 

The underlying point that I am trying to drum up conversation over is this; between taking a Quarterback who is viewed as having less talent than other players in his class simply to improve your Quarterback situation

 

- or -

 

drafting the more talented player and having to live with a less than ideal Quarterback situation

 

Which of those is worse for the team?

 

 

I'm not trying to say that the Quarterback will bust - even though I wrote that for some really lame reason that I don't even know - but rather how does it affect you to take a Quarterback who is less talented than say a Defensive End? Yes, it improves your QB position, but a more talented guy has gone somewhere else.

OK, I'll take a crack at the question, version 3.0.  

 

First, it's based on the premise that the QB is less talented than the other player.  How much less talented?  ESPN currently has Clowney rated 97, Watkins 95 and Bridgewater 94.  Let's assume this to be an accurate talent variation rating.  

 

Next, how good (or bad) are your current players the draft choices will be replacing?  What move will give you the greatest improvement at any position?  

 

Finally, you need to value each position's relative importance.  I don't think anyone would disagree that QB is the single most important position on the team.  LT is probably the consensus #2, but where do you go from there?   

 

Short answer is you take the guy who most improves the team but, with the third overall, you do not take a guy who's only somewhat better than average, just to replace a guy who's only slightly worse than average!  You sign an FA to do that.  If you can't honestly see star potential, the guy's not worth #3.

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When you get into the endzone, act like you've been there before.

I'd gladly take Dalton and 4 straight playoff appearances while I keep looking for that franchise QB.

It's gonna be really hard for them to tell their fanbase that they are just going to let their QB that 'led' them to 4 straight playoff appearances go. Yet that's the best option that they have. Otherwise they're going to have to give Dalton a contract similar to Cutler/Romo and that would be devastating. 

 

Looking for that franchise QB that late in the draft is a fools errand too. Gonna be a whole lot of stabs at the Boller, Grossman, Ramsey, Losman, Campbell, Quinn, Tebow before they find their Rodgers. I like Carr and all but A) he is likely to be gone by their pick and B) he is a lot like the Boller/Losman/Quinn types with lots of upside and also a whole lot of risk. 

 

Gimme bad and top picks to find my QB, because that is overwhelmingly the best place to find them...statistically speaking. 

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If I were the Bengals, I'd re-sign Dalton, but keep looking (trades, draft, etc) and hopefully you will find your guy.

 

Just letting him go doesn't necessarily mean you'll be better off in the future.

 

In fact, I'd argue that cutting him will decrease your chances of making the playoffs in the foreseable future.

 

Yes, you could potentially find your QB, but it's not a guarantee.  The Bengals have a good enough roster to be around .500 so even without Dalton, I doubt they would get first dibs on a guy like Winston for example.

 

Keeping Dalton is simply the smart thing to do.... not like you have to win the superbowl next year.  If you can be a playoff team 8/10 years Dalton plays there, you have 10 offseasons for potentially finding that diamond in the rough, or that 3rd round QB that develops into something better than Dalton.

 

Letting him go and "starting from scratch" is foolish IMO.

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Gimme bad and top picks to find my QB, because that is overwhelmingly the best place to find them...statistically speaking. 

 

 

We've been rock bottom bad now for a while now, and we're still not any closer in finding that franchise QB than before.

 

Meanwhile, Bengals fans have enjoyed a high powered offense and winning records.  Yes, they've lost in the playoffs, but at least they made it that far.  

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Drafting the Wrong QB would be the worse situation to me.


Drafting a guy that ends up a Ponder turns out no better than sticking with a Henne, except it took you 3 years longer to know you had a Henne. All while skipping positional talent, like others have mentioned.

I think the worst is passing on a qb who turns out to be the guy.


It's a huge but necessary risk to take a qb. You have to have one in order to win in the nfl. We still have 10 more picks to fill out the rest of the roster.


Get the best qb you can and then fit the talent around him.


To Deacons point though, if one player is graded significantly ahead of a qb then you take him. If he is higher you don't have the qb graded out as a franchise qb.

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Is your scenario something like? Would you rather draft a bad QB, be stuck with them for a few seasons then move on, or be in QB purgatory, but be a slightly better team? If we had to do one, I'd rather just take the chance of the QB. If he isn't the guy after a few seasons, and you know it, move on. More likely chance that you do find THE guy at QB then. This team has been in QB purgatory since Brunell left. Leftwich/Garrard/Henne are about as average to below average as you can get. Being stuck in the 5-11 to 8-8 range isn't fun.

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You are kind of looking at it as if you have the luxury of hindsight when you make the pick. Like they are picking the QB knowing that he will be an average player. I don't think they have that kind of mindset when they are evaluating a player.

 

Teams don't draft a QB with the idea of him becoming a mediocre starter. Where a team drafts a QB is not based on whether or not he will be a franchise player, but more to do with what the odds are that he will become a franchise player. If they don't at least see some sort of potential, they likely won't draft him at all.

 

I think a team is better off drafting players based on what they feel is the probability of them being successful NFL players weighted by the value of the position due to being a premium position or a need. Similar to the utility theory in economics.

 

Ex.

Say you weigh a QB on a scale of 1-10 as a 10 and you have a prospect that you believe has a 30%  chance of being successful. You multiply the percentage by the weight and you get a score of 3. Say you have a guard you weigh as a 5 that you believe has a 70% chance of being successful. You multiply that out and you get a weighted score of 3.5. 3.5 is greater than 3 so you take the guard.

 

If you stay disciplined to this approach you would maximize the overall talent in your drafts. This way you can take longer odds on guys who will have a bigger impact without passing up true value when it is there.

 

So to answer your question, it depends. It depends on how confident you feel in the QB vs what kind of value is still on the board.

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If the Bengals were smart they'd be looking to trade Dalton right now. It sure looks from the outside like he's a deadend guy who will keep their team just good enough to make sure they can't get an elite QB and just bad enough to make sure they're never a real factor in the playoffs. I'm guessing they probably have at least some people in management there who share my appraisal. It just depends on how bold the management group is there.

 

It takes a lot of years of failing in the playoffs before house gets cleaned, but replacing a known commodity that isn't losing with the possibility of getting a bust is really risky for a career.

 

My guess is they just don't have the sack to make the move they need to make and end up wasting the roster's talent over the next few years.

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Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl.  Brad Johnson won a Super Bowl.  Eli Manning, who is only maybe a top 15 QB, has won two of them.  Everyone thought Joe Flacco was a stiff until he won one.  And now after last season, everyone thinks he is a stiff again.  I'd much rather have a "mediocre" QB who gets you into the playoffs every year, or into the playoff chase every year, then constantly recycling lousy QBs over and over again in the hopes that one day you'll get lucky. 

 

Look at the top 15 QBs in the league last year in terms of QB rating and tell me how many of them are playing for the team that drafted them in the top 10 of the first round?  The list is short.  There are many ways to find a QB.  There are many ways to find a QB good enough to make you a consistent playoff contender.   

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Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.

I doubt the Panthers regret taking Newton. I consider my self a big Newton fan and I'd say he is the 10th best QB in the league behind P. Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Luck, Big Ben, Wilson, Rivers and E. Manning. Arguments could also be made for Romo, Flacco, Ryan, Cutler and Stafford. Meanwhile, AJ Green is probably the 2nd best WR in the NFL, Patrick Peterson is a top 5 CB, Aldon Smith and Von Miller have been great pass rushers and JJ Watt has won a DPOY award. Would the Panthers really be better of with one of these players?

 

Problem is, there's no Cam Newton in this draft.  The next best QBs were Dalton and Kaepernick.  Meaning, that's what we're facing at the "top" of this draft class.  QBs that would probably be second round talent if there were any true franchise candidates in the draft class.

 

The only reason they're in conversation for the first round, is high demand (there are many teams looking at QB, all of which made offseason moves as a precaution BTW...) and no high caliber, bonafide franchise guys at the top.

 

The crop really does resemble 2011 minus Newton, and you could also argue it's also a lot like 2013 but with greater numbers.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."