There is no scale for "good" so it's largely based on judgement, but he is a marginal starter and he would be one of the better backups in the league.  That in no way qualifies as "bad" and is considerably better than truly bad players like Luke McCown, Blaine Gabbert, or Tim Tebow.

 

What are you basing these views on? It's been rehashed over and over. As starters go Henne is in a class with Gabbert and Geno Smith.

 

As a backup he'd be considered "average" for a second stringer going by his stats and I'd consider him below average as a second stringer since he offers no prospect for development.

 

As a third stringer I'd consider him good, and if he stays in the league past this season it will probably be as another team's third stringer. Wouldn't surprise me if after this year he became this team's Boumann and got called in off a tractor in case of emergency.

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What are you basing these views on? It's been rehashed over and over. As starters go Henne is in a class with Gabbert and Geno Smith.

 

As a backup he'd be considered "average" for a second stringer going by his stats and I'd consider him below average as a second stringer since he offers no prospect for development.

 

As a third stringer I'd consider him good, and if he stays in the league past this season it will probably be as another team's third stringer. Wouldn't surprise me if after this year he became this team's Boumann and got called in off a tractor in case of emergency.

 

Personally, I base it on the performances over his career.  As you say, it's been hashed over and over again, but most people understand what Henne is; it's only a small contingent that say he's a bad player.  He's a good backup who I hope to heck we keep and he'll be a serviceable starter while we get Bortles ready (projecting his stats from last year, and assuming about a 5% increase in efficiency he should throw for nearly 4000 yards and 20 TDs).  I know that some people like to throw out his good games, claiming they happen during 'garbage time' but I guess you could claim that about any player you didn't like.

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If bortles becomes ready and plays lights out start Bortles otherwise I will trust in Chad..

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Bleeding Teal since 1995. The Icon Teal Time Radio aka ctjags

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Personally, I base it on the performances over his career.  As you say, it's been hashed over and over again, but most people understand what Henne is; it's only a small contingent that say he's a bad player.  He's a good backup who I hope to heck we keep and he'll be a serviceable starter while we get Bortles ready (projecting his stats from last year, and assuming about a 5% increase in efficiency he should throw for nearly 4000 yards and 20 TDs).  I know that some people like to throw out his good games, claiming they happen during 'garbage time' but I guess you could claim that about any player you didn't like.

 

And this is where you're going off the reservation, Kimosabe. You're expecting a performance that doesn't have any statistical precedent.

 

I'm not saying Henne couldn't suddenly become "Good." Literally anything could happen ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heaven_Can_...78_film%29 ) but to expect a guy who has consistently been a mediocre backup level player to suddenly have an outlier year isn't realistic.

 

You're falling into the fallacy of expecting the statistical outliers to suddenly become the norm.

 

Henne had some statistically average game against some very poor and/or unmotivated opponents last year. If you think they're an indication of what you're going to get as a regular occurrence over the 2014 season then you're being unrealistic.

 

It'd be like going into 2012 expecting Gabbert to play every game with the kind of statistical output he had against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

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A 5% increase in efficiency would still leave him well below the 20 TD threshold.

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Only a chump boos the home team!

If bortles becomes ready and plays lights out start Bortles otherwise I will trust in Chad..

Never Trust Henne. Multiple disappointments will ensue (see career stats)...


NH3...

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"AZANE"

Here's to the continuance of BB5's developmental progressions...


NH3...

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"AZANE"

And this is where you're going off the reservation, Kimosabe. You're expecting a performance that doesn't have any statistical precedent.

 

I'm not saying Henne couldn't suddenly become "Good." Literally anything could happen ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heaven_Can_...78_film%29 ) but to expect a guy who has consistently been a mediocre backup level player to suddenly have an outlier year isn't realistic.

 

You're falling into the fallacy of expecting the statistical outliers to suddenly become the norm.

 

Henne had some statistically average game against some very poor and/or unmotivated opponents last year. If you think they're an indication of what you're going to get as a regular occurrence over the 2014 season then you're being unrealistic.

 

It'd be like going into 2012 expecting Gabbert to play every game with the kind of statistical output he had against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

 

What you're missing is that *given the circumstances of his career* (note the emphasis), his statistics actually point to a guy that could easily have some improvement with a correct supporting cast.  I don't think that it's  unreasonable to think so.  For one thing, let's not forget that he's never been in a particularly stable environment.  Moreover, I think most people expect the Jag's defense and offense to be improved next year which should give the offense more chances and the offense should be more efficient.  Ok, I'll admit it's possible I could be wrong and new players may not pan out and some players that are expected to take forward steps might regress.  Sure, that's why they play the games.  Still with the expectation that the offense helps Henne out I think a 5% improvement in his efficiency is perfectly reasonable.

 

Now with that said, last year, in 13 starts he threw for 3241 yards, and 13 TDs and 14 INTs.  This is with virtually no help in the running game (Jags ranked 31st in the NFL in 2013), multiple injuries on the offensive line, and a limited number of opportunities (defense ranked 27th in the league last year and 26th in opponent's 3rd down efficiency).

 

Still with me?  Now take his YPG, and multiple that by 5% you get 262 ypg.  Multiple that by 16 for an entire season and you get 4192 yards.  For TDs and interceptions it becomes a little more complicated.  Since TDs are directly proportional to the efficiency of the offense and the number of opportunities, just adding 5% to the total doesn't tell the whole story.   You can pick a figure but if a guy throws for 4192 and the Jags get enough chances, I don't know how he can avoid throwing for at least 20.  Suffice it to say that being on the field and moving the ball more will result in more scoring.  INTs are similarly difficult to project but based on the assumption that another year in the system, more reliable receivers, better protection, these could decrease, remain the same or even increase a bit over a 16 game schedule.  Still with that said, it's not like Henne had an unreasonable amount of INTs last year.  Fourteen actually puts him in pretty good company.  Eli Manning had 27!

 

With all that said, the guy may not get the chance.  If he only plays 4 games or 8 games or whatever, he's obviously not going to gather those kinds of statistics, but as a guy that should have the capacity based on a reasonable extrapolation of past performances, he's a guy I'd like to see stay on the roster.

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Just throwing this question out there.

 

We already know that Henne got most of his stats in garbage time (you can look the stats up) so if the Jaguars play better this year could it be that Henne's performance actually decreases since he's not getting all the easy gains at the end of blow-outs and teams instead are still rushing him and keeping coverage tight since the games are closer?

 

Since we seem to have a lot of philosophizing in the thread.

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Just throwing this question out there.

 

We already know that Henne got most of his stats in garbage time (you can look the stats up) so if the Jaguars play better this year could it be that Henne's performance actually decreases since he's not getting all the easy gains at the end of blow-outs and teams instead are still rushing him and keeping coverage tight since the games are closer?

 

Since we seem to have a lot of philosophizing in the thread.

 

I'm no the right one to ask because I feel like 'garbage time' is too poorly defined to have any meaning.  If the defense stops playing during garbage time, who's to say the offense doesn't as well?

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I'm no the right one to ask because I feel like 'garbage time' is too poorly defined to have any meaning.  If the defense stops playing during garbage time, who's to say the offense doesn't as well?

 

Someone posted it a while ago, Henne had something like 1800 yards in the first three quarters of games during the season and the rest (1300?) in the fourth quarter with most of those yards coming when the Jaguars weren't actually in the game.

 

Pretty simple.

 

Like I said, do you think it's possible that you're actually looking at this backward and if the Jaguars become more competitive on the rest of the roster that Henne actually performs worse?

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Someone posted it a while ago, Henne had something like 1800 yards in the first three quarters of games during the season and the rest (1300?) in the fourth quarter with most of those yards coming when the Jaguars weren't actually in the game.

 

Pretty simple.

 

Like I said, do you think it's possible that you're actually looking at this backward and if the Jaguars become more competitive on the rest of the roster that Henne actually performs worse?

 

Could I be wrong?  Never!  Haha, just kidding of course, I'm not Alfie after all.  I'm not a big believer in the 'garbage time' theory.  There are too many other things that could be happening late in blowout games.  For example, maybe Fisch was conservative early in those games knowing our weaknesses or maybe our defense started getting stops late because the other offense started to go conservative.  I'd bet lots of QBs experience the same kind of curve late in games, I don't think it's particularly unique to our guy.

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Could I be wrong?  Never!  Haha, just kidding of course, I'm not Alfie after all.  I'm not a big believer in the 'garbage time' theory.  There are too many other things that could be happening late in blowout games.  For example, maybe Fisch was conservative early in those games knowing our weaknesses or maybe our defense started getting stops late because the other offense started to go conservative.  I'd bet lots of QBs experience the same kind of curve late in games, I don't think it's particularly unique to our guy.

 

I didn't say it was unique, I just asked if maybe you were looking at everything backward and it's possible that with pressure on the other team to play hard for 4 quarters Henne goes in the other direction.

 

Personally I think it's quite possible, especially if Gerhart does well. I can't see Fisch wanting to stop giving the ball to him if he's running it better than Henne is throwing it.

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I didn't say it was unique, I just asked if maybe you were looking at everything backward and it's possible that with pressure on the other team to play hard for 4 quarters Henne goes in the other direction.

 

Personally I think it's quite possible, especially if Gerhart does well. I can't see Fisch wanting to stop giving the ball to him if he's running it better than Henne is throwing it.

 

Oh I see what you're saying.  Maybe, but if that happens I wouldn't be disappointed at all.  If we're getting wins, I don't care if Henne is throwing for 150 YPG. 

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I didn't say it was unique, I just asked if maybe you were looking at everything backward and it's possible that with pressure on the other team to play hard for 4 quarters Henne goes in the other direction.

 

Personally I think it's quite possible, especially if Gerhart does well. I can't see Fisch wanting to stop giving the ball to him if he's running it better than Henne is throwing it.

Press Pressure for four quarters instead of the Prevent D within the second half will definately decrease Henne's garbage time increased stats...


NH3...

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"AZANE"

Press Pressure for four quarters instead of the Prevent D within the second half will definately decrease Henne's garbage time increased stats...


NH3...

 

Sure because when a team is in obvious passing situations why should a defense pin their ears back and come after the QB? 

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Did I read correct? This thread is at 10 pages? 10 pages of a Henne debate? Lol!! #deadzone

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Did I read correct? This thread is at 10 pages? 10 pages of a Henne debate? Lol!! #deadzone

Yes! And you just contributed to it! Thanks!

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I'm condescending. That means I talk down to you. 
Check out the Jag's Forum Alternative: Duval Football Fans.

You just won't quit.  Henne is not a bad QB.  As difficult as it is to believe there are shades on the spectrum between Tom Brady and Blaine Gabbert. 

 

Well, unfortunately for the Jags and fans of the Jags, Chad Henne is much, much, much (did I mention much?)  closer to one Blaine Gabbert then Tom Brady as far as QB comparisons go.

 

There isn't a football person in the world who will dispute that fact.

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I survived the Gus Bradley Error.

Oh I see what you're saying.  Maybe, but if that happens I wouldn't be disappointed at all.  If we're getting wins, I don't care if Henne is throwing for 150 YPG. 

 

lol, 150 yds per game. We had a guy around here that could barely get that #, and there were actually quite a few times he didn't even get to 150yds.

 

As you can imagine, it wasn't a pretty site.

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I survived the Gus Bradley Error.