<div>Year  School            G  Cmp  Att  Pct     Yds  Y/A  TD   Int   Rate
 
*1979 Pittsburgh 12  130  222  58.6  1680  7.6   10     9   128.9
 
*1980 Pittsburgh 12  116  224  51.8  1609  7.2  15    14  121.7
 
*1981 Pittsburgh   12  226  380  59.5  2876  7.6   37    23  143.1
 
*1982 Pittsburgh  12  221  378  58.5  2432  6.4  17    23  115.2
 
 
 
 
Looking at these college stats, he really only had one what you would call "stellar year", and that was his Jr season. 
 
He really regressed in his senior season. 
 
Not once did he top 60% completion rate in any season. (Yet he became known as one of the more accurate passers in the NFL)
 
I wonder where a QB with the above stat compilation, including the senior regression, would be drafted today?? Probably out of the first round. 
 

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First player I thought of after reading this was Jake Locker.  Looking at his stats, he was actually worse.  It's truly amazing he was drafted so high.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id...ake-locker

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I think thats taking it too far. Its not as simple/ random as flipping a coin. 

I think it is. How else would you explain Tom Brady and Joe Montana to Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert. My dad told me a long time ago when I was young, "Never say what another man can't do." Sometimes a guy just puts it all together in the league sometimes the guy with all the skill can't transition. 

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that's why you scout traits, not stats.

 

scouts would see why his completion percentage stunk.  Was it because he couldn't consistently be accurate (doubt it) or other factors (dropped passes, poor offensive line play, etc)

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I think it is. How else would you explain Tom Brady and Joe Montana to Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert. My dad told me a long time ago when I was young, "Never say what another man can't do." Sometimes a guy just puts it all together in the league sometimes the guy with all the skill can't transition. 

 

Evidence shows that generally speaking, the higher the draft pick the better he performs.

 

It's not a coin-flip.  

 

It's not a guarantee the higher draft pick will perform better, but your chances are better.

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Kinda reminds me of that Ole Miss QB a few years ago, Jevon Snead I think it was.

Ahhh, I had just gotten over the Jevon Snead disappointment. Snead lead the rebels to a surprise victory against Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl and recieved so much hype for the following year. Dark horse Heisman candidate, pre season team ranking of I think #4, whispers of being a possible first round qb, and labeled the next Archie/Eli Manning. Sadly, he couldn't handle the hype and star status at Ole Miss and literally gave up a few games into that season. Think he was an UDFA for Tampa and never made it to the regular season for anyone. Tricky business when it comes to any college players

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"Expect for the best. Prepare for the worst. Capitalize on what comes."

 

Was a completely different game back then.  When Marino threw for 37 TDs that was pretty amazing.  Only BYU QBs were putting up numbers like that and it's because they were throwing all over the place.  Back then it was still a run first sport.

 

Plus you have to remember that Pittsburgh was never a good program.  In fact they had traditionally been pretty bad with a few good years sprinkled in here or there.  Then they got Johnny Majors (of Tennessee fame) who led them to a title. Then Marino showed up and made them consistently great.  They havent reached those levels since he left.

 

*** one other thing... I think NFL teams respected the big armed gunslinger more back then than they do now.  Look at Bradshaw.  Lots of INTs and small completion percentage.  Joe Namath would throw a ton of picks.  It was more acceptable.  Once Bill Walsh came in, prioritized comp%, and no turnovers, and showed how good you could be, opinions changed.  For fun go pull up Joe Montana's college stats.  Best QB of all time?  Couldnt predict that based on his Irish stats.  Different game back then.

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Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.

Remember passing was not what it is now.A 2 receiver set was something really special.

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