The other thread got side-tracked, so.  With today's loss the Jags were eliminated from the playoffs.  Therefore I wanted to see what is the WORST spot they can draft.

 

Just by not not making the playoffs the Jags can do no worse than the 19th pick because 12 teams make the playoffs.

 

However, in the AFC, in the North and East there are already 5 teams with 7 wins and only 4 at most can get into playoffs, so one of those teams will miss the playoffs and be behind us in draft, so we are at least number 18.

 

Then you can add San Diego who has 6 wins (which is the most Jax can have) but they have the 4th hardest strength of schedule (SOS) and we have 4th easiest, so they will also be behind us, which gives us number 17.

 

Over in the NFC, it also will now take 7 wins minimum to make the wild card.  That leaves Seattle and SF both of whom have 6 wins. They have the 5th and 6th hardest SOS, and will be behind us if they fail to make the playoffs.   That moves us to 15

 

I am not yet penciling in Miami or Baltimore with 6 wins because their SOS is not overwhelmingly better than ours, so...

 

Halfway thru the week's games on 11/23/2014, the Jags are guaranteed to pick no lower than number 15. 

 

 

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Probability Chart for this week:

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I was wrong about Trent Baalke. 

An update after the Thanksgiving games:  I plugged actual team names into slots and nothing has really changed. 

 

Next thing that could change it are wins by either Miami or Buffalo. 

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The other thread got side-tracked, so.  With today's loss the Jags were eliminated from the playoffs.  Therefore I wanted to see what is the WORST spot they can draft.

 

Just by not not making the playoffs the Jags can do no worse than the 19th pick because 12 teams make the playoffs.

 

However, in the AFC, in the North and East there are already 5 teams with 7 wins and only 4 at most can get into playoffs, so one of those teams will miss the playoffs and be behind us in draft, so we are at least number 18.

 

Then you can add San Diego who has 6 wins (which is the most Jax can have) but they have the 4th hardest strength of schedule (SOS) and we have 4th easiest, so they will also be behind us, which gives us number 17.

 

Over in the NFC, it also will now take 7 wins minimum to make the wild card.  That leaves Seattle and SF both of whom have 6 wins. They have the 5th and 6th hardest SOS, and will be behind us if they fail to make the playoffs.   That moves us to 15

 

I am not yet penciling in Miami or Baltimore with 6 wins because their SOS is not overwhelmingly better than ours, so...

 

Halfway thru the week's games on 11/23/2014, the Jags are guaranteed to pick no lower than number 15. 

 

 I fully expect that number to lose ground like the Jags season.

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I survived the Gus Bradley Error.

So whats the update now? 6-10 is our best possible record there's only 15 teams without 6 or more wins at this point so our lowest possible slot would be 16?

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So whats the update now? 6-10 is our best possible record there's only 15 teams without 6 or more wins at this point so our lowest possible slot would be 16?

 

No, it's 14.


Keep in mind that some of the teams without 6 or more wins face each other.  


A loss by the Jags this week would put our lowest possible pick at 11. Unless you're using a 50/50 system, in which case it'd be 12.

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I was wrong about Trent Baalke. 

I still show it as 15.  16 teams have 7 wins or more and some team will win the NFC South.  That means we pick no later than 15th.  2 teams  (Mia and Buff) have 6 wins.  Those teams do not play each other.  So the tiebreaker with them would be SOS. They are at 12 and 15, and we are at 29. It's probably not possible for that to be overcome, but I don't know it for sure.  So I didn't count them yet.

 

Also there are only 2 five win teams and they do not play each other.

 

So next thing that changes the equation is ether a Jags loss or a Miami or Buffalo win. 

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So. after a Jags thrilling win.... we still improve our lowest possible draft position, because for us to get position 15, we had to win and other teams lose.... and some of them won also.

 

The only one that makes a difference today though is Buffalo.  Their win gives them 7 wins and moves us to spot 14

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The Miami win now moves Jags to no worse than spot 13

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I was wrong about Trent Baalke. 

This is when we start rooting for the Titans, Jets, Raiders, Buccaneers, and Giants. Our chances of picking first will increase if they win.

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Falcons, Saints, Panthers, and Bucs play 5 games against each other within the last 4 weeks. It's impossible to keep them all at five wins or less and virtually impossible to only let one team have more than five wins.

 

If we stay in the 2-4 win range we need to be cheering for Panthers and Bucs. If we get to the 5-6 win range we need to be cheering for Atlanta and New Orleans.

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Falcons, Saints, Panthers, and Bucs play 5 games against each other within the last 4 weeks. It's impossible to keep them all at five wins or less and virtually impossible to only let one team have more than five wins.

 

If we stay in the 2-4 win range we need to be cheering for Panthers and Bucs. If we get to the 5-6 win range we need to be cheering for Atlanta and New Orleans.

 

The Panthers have 3.5 wins. The Falcons and Saints have 5 wins, so I am not worried about them. I expect the Jaguars to win both home games and lose both road games for another 4-12 record.

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After the Texans loss, the most the jags can win is 5. That puts the following teams permanently behind the jags in the draft: Houston, Rams, Minn.  That puts the jags at no worse than number 10.

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I like this thread.  Very creative  :thumbsup:

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I like this thread.  Very creative  :thumbsup:

 

And depressing

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But will we get the draft pick right!?

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Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.

But will we get the draft pick right!?

 

I don't worry about that until April. First things first, what will the pick numbers be?

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Pretty bad when you start looking at the draft 2 games in. It has become a yearly deal with us.

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9 is the lowest we can pick now.  So we're guaranteed a Top 10 pick at this point.  A loss to the Ravens next week by itself will put us at 7 at the worst.  Updated Graph:

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I was wrong about Trent Baalke.