I think this is a good question. First of all, most general managers have a pretty good idea of where most draftable players will be taken. Let's take Brady as an example. It was highly unlikely that anyone would take him prior to the 3rd -4th round based on his performance at Michigan, his pre-draft workouts and measureables. Therefore, it would have been crazy for the Patriots to take him in the first round even if they secretly thought he was  a combination of Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas and Dan Marino. Why not get 2 great players with first round value instead of 1? They certainly deserve no credit for taking him in the 6th round and were fortunate he was still available. However, they would have still been credited with a great pick if they took him in the 2nd or even 3rd round.

 

In the case of Russell Wilson, I think the Seahawks were fortunate to get him in the 3rd and don't deserve much credit for the pick.  Many thought he would be selected in the 3rd so he could have been selected in the 2nd by 1 team who fell in love with his athleticism and leadership causing the Seahawks to lose their franchise q.b. of the future.

 

As far as this year's draft, there are 3 quarterbacks most teams have going in the 1st. If the Jaguars "love" any of the 3 and 1 is available at this spot (I'm not a math genius, but I think this is likely), they should select this player. Therefore, either Bridgewater,Manziel or Bortles will be the pick- even if Clowney is on the board and they have an equal grade for each player since a q.b. is more important. However, if they only "love" 1 of the 3 q.b.'s and he gets taken by Houston or a team like Cleveland that trades into the number 2 slot, the Jaguars should not "settle" for a guy they think has much potential but also a lot of risk. It would be much wiser to take the player rated highest on their board who would probably be Clowney if Bridgewater and Matthews were taken with the top 2 picks. They would still have the option of taking a quarterback in the 2nd round or possibly even trading into the back of the first round for a q.b. they are very high on, but not enough to have taken with the 3rd pick. I am not a scout and haven't seen enough of any of the other q.b.'s to have a definite opinion on who that player is. However, if Caldwell and his scouting dept. are high on Boyd, McCarron, Murray or Carr I would have no problem with them taking 1 of these guys with their 2nd round pick or trading up to get this player. Caldwell has only one draft to be judged by, but it appears his 1st class is deserving of anywhere from a B to A grade depending on how Joeckel pans out. So I trust that he will take the correct quarterback, even if it's in the 2nd round.

 

I do feel that it isn't a great idea to select a q.b. after the 3rd or 4th round since the odds of them becoming a franchise q.b. are extremely remote. For every 1 Tom Brady, there are 100 Jonathan Quinn's. It would be better, especially for a talent starved team like the Jaguars, to select an interior lineman, defensive tackle or running back who would have a much better chance of making the team and possibly even becoming a future starter.

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