Quote:Yeah, my man @NU_gap did a great job with the aDOT stats in this article, but there was a lot of context missing that would help give some color to the stats too.
For example, Teddy completes so many in the 1-10 yard range because ULs offense ran more on 1st and 2nd than other 3, leaving him in 3 and medium quite often so of course he is going to attempt more in that range to move the chains.
Manziel's pass first (and usually second) offense meant that if he didn't complete the first down pass he was having to attempt to attempt more long passes on 2nd and 3rd and 10. That helps explain why he attempted so many 'NFL throws'. Also, with Johnny having elite offensive lines for his whole career it helped let routes develop longer or allow his scrambles to be more effective, so he was also able to attempt more deep passes.
Also, as I've said with Carr (as I am his only unbiased pseudo defender left), you have to approach scouting him with such a different mindset than any other QB because of that blasted offense. The screens and swings were basically Fresno's run game so of course he is going to have more throws in the sub 5 yard range. That also greatly lowers his attempt %s in the other quadrants naturally. Then you have to think about how many of his passes were forced and rushed deep because he had by far the worst oline of the group too. Scouting him based on aDOT statistics is an injustice to his skills, because that offense doesn't allow for proper measurements.
Carr has such an arm talent...but it is so difficult to evaluate him because of the system that he plays in. The number of screen passes he throws has been talked about a lot. It's ridiculous how many throws he has that are behind the LOS. And even when they are not throwing those passes, it seems majority of his passes go to his first read. Not sure if this is how their offense is designed, or if he's just not progressing to the next reads for whatever reason. I think this also affects his accuracy overall...because for the most part when he throws the intermediate passes...they are thrown with great velocity and are thrown right into the body of the receiver.
However, because it is typically thrown quickly and to the first read...it seems like the guy is draped by his defender as soon as the ball gets there making it a more difficult catch. As I said, hard to say if this is a cause or more of an effect (of their system, OL play, etc)
But if you take everything away and just look at arm talent, I don't think there's doubt that Carr is at the top of this class. I just don't know that I'm willing to spend the #3 on him given all of these question marks.
