(01-17-2018, 04:20 PM)Rico Wrote:

(01-17-2018, 04:14 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: Anyone that thinks Bortles is playing here under a multi-year deal next year really hasn’t thought things through and is just letting the exuberance of this season cloud their judgement.  We have the option of taking another year to evaluate him at a reasonable number for starting QBs if we decide not to outright upgrade the position in free agency.  Only an exuberant fan would rush to get him under contract and forgo the advantage that the 5th year option provides the team.  When the time comes, if the team deems him “the franchise guy” they’ll have no problem paying him his worth.  There’s no rush here.

Quite honestly, you don't know anymore than I do what the front office is thinking.

Just walk through it with me for a moment.

The only number in a contract that matters to the player and his agent is the guaranteed number.  The rest of the money is a mirage until it's earned because the team can cut you at any time.  The bottom end for this negotiation is the 5th year option salary which is roughly $19 million guaranteed.  If the team wants to add 2 or 3 years to that and Blake is willing to go along with that idea, how much more guaranteed money would a starting QB require versus just betting on themselves and playing the year out at $19 million and then coming back to free agency the following year where they've hopefully earned the mega QB contract with a lot more in guarantees?  old_man suggested $25 million guaranteed for 3 years would be acceptable to Bortles in another thread.  Would $6 million more be enough for you as a starting QB to give up 2 additional years of your rights at well below average starting QB money?  I sure hope not.  How about $11 million more to bring it to $30 million guaranteed for let's say 3 years for a total contract value of $50 million.  We're getting a little closer I think, but if Blake Bortles believes that he's a top QB in this league and wants to show he deserves to be paid as such, locking yourself up for 3 years at well below what starting QB money will be over that time probably isn't what most QBs in his situation would choose to do and signing that contract doesn't really say "I believe in myself and I know I'm worth a lot more".  I think if you're Blake, the guaranteed number would have to be closer to $40 million to make you consider forgoing free agency the following year and the team would probably require the contract to be at least 4 years at that guarantee amount.  I just can't see the team's acceptable maximum guaranteed number for a contract getting anywhere close to $40 million at this point in time.  Can you?

No, I don't know what the front office is thinking, but this doesn't seem that difficult of an exercise to work through mentally if you're being honest with yourself along the way, have at least a rudimentary understanding of NFL contracts and have watched every game Blake has played in at least once.  It's clear to me that it's in the best interests of both the Jaguars and Blake to go into next season under the 5th year option and maybe re-evaluate the situation close to midseason next year at the earliest.  I think it would be shocking news to the vast majority of pro football media and fans to hear that such a deal came to fruition this offseason given the inconsistency we've witnessed not only through his career but during this season as well.   Even winning the Super Bowl probably won't affect what will happen contract wise this offseason, though if he dazzles in and wins the next 2 games, who knows?  Maybe that does change things if he winds up being Super Bowl MVP or something.

On a side note, if we're at roughly $40 million in guarantees for Bortles, shouldn't we just go ahead and go after Cousins assuming he hits the market?

---