(03-04-2018, 04:10 AM)TJBender Wrote: Trading back from the late first to the early second nets you a fourth-round pick.

If the Jaguars like a QB at the end of one, stay put and get the fifth-year option. If they like a guy at another position and someone wants to jump up for a QB, by all means.

I am wary of trading back for myriad reasons, but your closing line here is sage advice.

The odds of a team obtaining a starter, much less a quality starter, decrease by round under normal circumstances.  But I don't see too many opportunities for a starting job to be had on our team, to be honest.  More likely than not, whatever picks we are accumulating would be depth, and nothing more.  Furthermore, I think there is always the chance of us getting too cute and missing out on a player we might want.

The QB is a classic example.  If we have our eye on Mason Rudolph, for instance, thinking he would be there for us at the bottom of round one, and we trade down with Cleveland for the first pick in the 2nd round, we could easily lose out on him with New England drafting Brady's eventual replacement, or either Vikes Pats, or Eagles trading back.  Of course, if Cleveland were to entertain moving up, they would probably be less inclined to trade the first pick on the 2nd round and more inclined to trade Houston's pick in the 2nd (obtained in the Osweiler deal).  Cleveland would still likely want the power that comes with controlling the top pick in day 2 of the draft, because they will likely entertain trade deals from teams coveting a particular player.  In that instance, or even more so the scenario with the Jets, the risk of losing Rudolph (or any other coveted guy) increases a great deal.  At the end of the day, there is the chance we could trade back and get nothing but guys who provide little to no impact, and not get us over the hump.

There are potential good possibilities for trading back.  There is the obvious advantage of accumulating an extra pick or two.   I think a scenario that enables the Jaguars to land a quality TE and two quality OL would be a very good scenario.  That is something that could happen with the trade down scenarios envisioned above in this thread.  In an ideal trade back scenario, we would trade back multiple times, accumulating a ton of 3rd and 4th round picks, and replicate the great 1986 49ers draft, stocking an already contending team for another two Super Bowls.  Given Caldwell's success in mid round picks like Linder, Telvin Smith, Yannick Ngakoue and Aaron Colvin, that is a possibility we can not discount.  Another ideal scenario would be trading back to a team so desperate to acquire a player they would give up a first round pick next year to get him.

But generally, I would not want to risk missing out on a player that can help us now by trading down, especially when there appears to be players of value at our spot in the draft that fit positions of need.

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