(03-16-2018, 01:06 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote:

(03-16-2018, 12:27 AM)Predator Wrote: The way his contract is structured it wouldn't make sense to cut him before year 2. If we cut him after 1 year he would count 16.5 mil in dead money against our cap the following year. Add to that the cost of bringing in another number two, which would probably be at least 5 mill towards the cap, and you have a cap hit for your back up QB at 21.5 mil. Keeping Bortles for the second year would be a 21 mil cap hit so it would be cheaper just to keep him as a back up.

After year two his dead money drops to 5 mil.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/jacksonville-...les-14412/

It's probable that he'll be here next year, but the team crafted themselves an out after this season in the deal if they choose to take it.  There is offset language in his 2019 $6.5 guarantee amount which means the Jags aren't necessarily the ones who have to pay that and it's mentioned underneath his contract breakdown on the spotrac page.  It also means if he's on another team next year through trade or release, that the dead money amount wouldn't necessarily be $16.5 million.  It could be as low as $10 million based on whether or not he's making $6.5 million or more elsewhere and why wouldn't he get that or something close to it even if he's just the dedicated backup somewhere?

Why would the Jags put that language in the deal if they were absolutely reserved to their fate of being stuck with him for 2 years?  Good GM's can't necessarily predict the future, but good GM's do account for multiple scenarios and attempt to give themselves options by not hog-tying the team with bad deals.  If Bortles is on another roster next year earning $6.5 million or more the Jags don't owe him a dime in 2019 or 2020, they just have to account for the remaining signing bonus (which has already been paid to him) for each of those years as far as the cap is concerned.  If you're the GM and you know it's time to move on, you're not going to pay him his base salary of $16 million next year and take the total cap hit of $21 million next year by keeping him on the roster just to push the final $5 million of dead money out to 2020.  That would be insane.  Considering what mega deals we'll have to do in 2020, it may be more advantageous to take the $10 million dead cap hit in 2019 versus leaving any of it for 2020 anyway.

Lastly, if you're going to craft such an out in the deal, would you take the risk of having to start your search for his replacement next offseason after you've decided to move on or would you prefer to have the potential heir apparent on the roster already this season?  And if you're going to potentially eat a $10 million dollar dead cap hit next year, wouldn't you prefer that heir apparent to be on a rookie deal rather than it being a more pricey vet?  And now go through the list of bona fide starting QBs in the league that are at no risk of being unseated and add up the number of those that were drafted beyond the 2nd round.  I can't really think of anyone except Wilson and Brady, maybe I'm missing someone.  It would be nice to luck into landing such a guy beyond the 2nd round, but no GM is going to plan to do that. The guys you take beyond the 2nd are ones you're drafting to be the backup or a developmental guy.  I'd take it a step further and say that if you're getting a quality guy in the 2nd round it is going to be near the top of that round and not where we will currently be drafting.  Anyway, if you build that out into the contract the next logical step in my mind is to get a legitimate rookie QB that has the potential to unseat Bortles by next season.  I know this has been a bit long winded, but for those that aren't aware of the offset you have to walk through it entirely to understand the how's and why's of it.  

Best case scenario is even if we take a QB high, that it pushes Bortles to be his best and we have two quality QBs on the roster and we can flip one in a year or two for significant compensation.  Anyway, to me that contract said they were taking a QB high (if the draft falls the way they need it to, and that's a big if), else why bother putting the offset language in there?